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on China |
| By: | Yang Tang (Nanyang Technological University); Ping Wang (Washington University in St. Louis); Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | market fundamentals |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:765&r=cna |
| By: | Günter Schucher (GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies) |
| Abstract: | China’s leadership currently seems to be extremely worried about unemployment, and particularly youth unemployment, even though the country’s official unemployment rate is rather low. Possible reasons for this are that (1) the youth unemployment rate is actually higher than stated; (2) the inadequate employment situation faced by many young people is actually worse than the incomplete measurements of unemployment indicate; (3) particularly graduates of tertiary education institutions face a job reality below their expectations; (4) the Chinese population is highly concerned about the labor market’s development; and, (5) the state fears that frustration and discontent might trigger protests, as was recently the case in the Arab world and other countries. This paper analyzes the different dimensions of the inadequate employment situation of Chinese youth and provides evidence to support all five of these assumptions, although indications of direct actions being undertaken by unemployed young people in China in response are rather scarce. But aside from that, there are other forms of youth resistance as well. Many young people in the country vent their frustration over the internet, and opting out and cynicism can also threaten social harmony. Tertiary-sector graduates make up approximately half of all young people entering the Chinese labor market every year and are the ones most affected by the currently unsatisfying job prospects. Though the unemployment of graduates is only short term in nature, a lack of job opportunities combined with declining opportunities for upward mobility carry strong potential to generate further uneasiness and disorder in China. |
| Keywords: | China, youth unemployment, inadequate employment, social unrest |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:258&r=cna |
| By: | Le, Vo Phuong Mai (Cardiff Business School); Matthews, Kent (Cardiff Business School); Meenagh, David (Cardiff Business School); Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School); Xiao, Zhiguo |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model of the Chinese economy using a DSGE framework that accommodates a banking sector and money. The model is used to shed light on the period of the recent period of financial crisis. It differs from other applications in the use of indirect inference to estimate and test the fitted model. We find that the main shocks that hit China in the crisis were international and that domestic banking shocks were unimportant. Officially mandated bank lending and government spending were used to supplement monetary policy to aggressively offset shocks to demand. An analysis of the frequency of crises shows that crises occur on average about every half-century, with about a third accompanied by financial crises. We find that monetary policy can be used more vigorously to stabilise the economy, making direct banking controls and fiscal activism unnecessary. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model; Financial Frictions; China; Crises; Indirect Inference; Money; Credit |
| JEL: | E3 E44 E52 C1 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2015/1&r=cna |
| By: | Harry WU |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the procedures of constructing industry-level net capital stock and measuring capital services in the Chinese economy. This work is based on our understanding of the major problems in the official investment statistics and follows the system of national accounts (SNA) principles. The main tasks accomplished include reconstruction of industry-level investment flows, estimation of the initial capital stock, measurement of industry-specific deflator and depreciation rate, and construction of net capital stock for 37 industries and estimation of their services. Our results show that China's rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth has indeed been accompanied by a more rapid growth of capital input. The annual growth of China's net capital stock was 12% for the entire period 1980-2010. We find that despite institutional shocks and substantial restructuring in the early reform period of the 1980s, China managed to achieve an annual growth of over 10% in net capital stock. This was followed by an even faster growth in the 1990s (13%) and a further acceleration following China's World Trade Organization (WTO) entry (17%). Moreover, the unprecedented fiscal package in the wake of the global financial crisis drove up the growth of China's net capital stock to over 20% per annum. However, our estimated changes of capital services using the user-cost weights suggest that, since the late 1990s or early 2000s, there has been unusual substitution towards assets with relatively low rather than high marginal products. This may imply distortions in capital allocation and barriers to capital mobility in the economy. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:15006&r=cna |
| By: | Burggraf, Christine; Kuhn, Lena; Zhao, Qiran; Glauben, Thomas; Teuber, Ramona |
| Abstract: | Considering emerging economies like China and Russia, we analyze whether income growth as a major driver of nutrition transition has a significant effect on the consumption of different food aggregates and how these effects differ between both countries. Therefore, we estimate expenditure elasticities of Chinese and Russian consumers for six different food aggregates. Our results indicate that future income growth in China and Russia will continue to increase meat and fat consumption. Although being a positive signal for problems of malnutrition in China that trend tends to further increase the incidence of nutrition-related chronic diseases in both countries. |
| Keywords: | nutrition transition, food expenditure elasticities, Russia, China, Demand and Price Analysis, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182828&r=cna |
| By: | Harry WU; ITO Keiko |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the procedures of constructing China's input-output tables (IOTs) and supply-use tables (SUTs) in time series for the period 1981-2010 under the East Asian Industrial Productivity/China KLEMS Project. We begin with basic data problems in terms of inconsistencies in concept, coverage, and classification of Chinese national accounts (NAs) and biases of using the NA implicit gross domestic product (GDP) deflators. We then introduce the key procedures in: 1) reconstructing national production accounts as national and industry-level "control totals", 2) constructing industry-level producer price indices, 3) converting 1981 material product system (MPS)-type IOT to the system of national accounts (SNA) standard to match China's five full-scale IOTs (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007), 4) constructing industry-level export and import accounts to match each benchmark IOT, and 5) estimating supply-use tables in time series using the SUT-RAS approach from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), and based on the estimated SUTs, we finally derive China's input-output accounts in time series. Furthermore, we adopt the chained-Laspeyres deflation approach to estimating SUTs in constant prices. With these procedures, we have arrived at an annual GDP growth rate of 9.4% instead of the official estimate of 10.2% for the full period. However, at the broad-sector level, we show a much faster industrial GDP growth at 15.6% per annum instead of the official estimate of 11.9% per annum. As for non-industrial GDP growth, our estimate is 5.2% per annum rather than the official estimate of 8.9% per annum. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:15004&r=cna |
| By: | Chen, Rong Jr; Zapata, Hector O. Jr |
| Abstract: | This paper examines hog price linkages between the U.S. and China during the period June 1996 to December 2013. Volatility and spillover effects are modeled through a MGARCH-BEKK model. It is found that volatility in Chinese hog prices is explained by own-price volatility and past unexpected events (shocks); American hog price volatility, however, is mostly explained by its own past shocks (events in the U.S. market). One common aggregate linkage between the two markets is unidirectional volatility spillover effects from China to U.S. hog prices, paralleling the flow of hog-pork exports from the U.S. to China. |
| Keywords: | hog and pork market, price volatility, volatility spillover, MGARCH-BEKK, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Q1, |
| Date: | 2015–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea15:196820&r=cna |
| By: | Claudia Schwirplies (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the interrelation between adaptation and climate protection efforts of individuals in a cross-country comparison. The theoretical predictions based on a subjective utility framework demonstrate that, at the individual level, private adaptation and climate protection activities are determined by different factors and thus cannot be substitutes. Considering seven climate protection and four adaptation measures, these theoretical predictions are tested empirically using representative data from more than 3400 citizens in China, Germany, and the USA. The empirical findings are consistent with the theoretical predictions that the engagement in adaptation and climate protection activities tends to be positively related. While climate protection efforts seem to be mainly driven by their benefits (e.g., financial advantages or feelings of warm glow), adaptation activities are significantly influenced by a higher income and the individual evaluation of the risk that negative consequences from climate change occur. There is also some evidence that a perceived lack of public engagement in climate protection is compensated by increased private adaptation and climate protection efforts. Preferences for public adaptation and climate protection are significantly determined by individuals’ beliefs about the efforts of others, social norms, feelings of warm glow, and confidence in the effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation, climate protection, climate change, policy preferences |
| JEL: | H41 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201502&r=cna |
| By: | Ke, Shen (Demographic Research Institute, Fudan University); Lee, Sang-Hyop (Center for Korean Studies, University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Benefit incidence analyses provide important insights into problems facing any government struggling to deliver essential and equitable social services. Utilizing the framework of the National Transfer Accounts Project, this paper analyzes the benefit incidence of public transfers across generations and socioeconomic groups in the People’s Republic of China in 2009. Public education transfers were equally distributed by residence, gender, and income groups at the primary and secondary levels but favored city dwellers, females, and the wealthy at the tertiary level. Public health-care programs tended to equally target the young and middle-aged from different socioeconomic groups but tilted toward urban dwellers, males, and higher income groups at older ages. Public pension spending strongly favored high-income groups, with rural residents, females, and lower income groups receiving greatly reduced benefits. Our results also indicate that total public spending favored elderly people as spending per person 65 years and older was twice that per child younger than 19. In the next 10 or 20 years, the government should endeavor to improve and strengthen public support systems. In addition to this effort, the currently fragmented health insurance system and pension system should move toward a unified system to reduce inequalities in benefit incidence across socioeconomic groups. |
| Keywords: | benefit incidence; public transfers; the People’s Republic of China |
| JEL: | E62 H53 O15 |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0413&r=cna |
| By: | Zhu, Manhong; Seale, James L. Jr |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to estimate China’s soybeans import allocation by country-of-origin using the input allocation model for the multiproduct firm under input-output seperability. From the results, we find there is a competition between the U.S. and South America (Brazil and Argentina). Therefore, for U.S. policymakers, it might be necessary to provide certain export price support when facing strong international soybean exporting competitions |
| Keywords: | China soybean imports, joint production, multiproduct firm, differential approach, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea15:196797&r=cna |
| By: | Wignaraja, Ganeshan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Jinjarak, Yothin (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between firm characteristics and borrowing from commercial banks by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and five Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam). Analysis of microdata from enterprise surveys highlights key aspects of SME finance since the global financial crisis, including sources of credit, lender types, and collateral types. First, SMEs typically resort to internal sources rather than external finance (including borrowing from banks) and trade credit. Second, when it comes to external finance, SMEs typically use informal non-bank credit sources more than banks. Third, there is a positive and significant association between bank borrowing and certain characteristics of SMEs, notably financial audits, firm age, and export participation. Fourth, personal assets of SME owners tend to matter more as collateral for SME borrowing from banks than other collateral types. Improving credit guarantee systems, enhancing monitoring and credit scoring by banks, and widening the scope of collateral are possible ways to facilitate increased bank borrowing by SMEs. |
| Keywords: | credit access; firm-level survey; collateral; credit guarantees; smes |
| JEL: | D22 E44 F14 L16 O14 |
| Date: | 2015–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0509&r=cna |
| By: | Huang, Wei; Brümmer, Bernhard; Huntsinger, Lynn |
| Abstract: | Incorporating the ecological variable of grassland Net Primary Productivity (NPP) into the production function - to be representative of grassland quality - is a new step toward the ecological efficiency analysis under the field of productivity and efficiency analysis. We measure the technical efficiency, ecological performance indicator and ecological efficiency of grazing using a multi-outputs and multi-inputs stochastic input-oriented distance function. The average technical efficiency is estimated to be 0.90 when taking grassland NPP into account, implying that cost of grazing inputs can be decreased by 10% without any deduction of outputs. The ecological efficiency is estimated to be 0.83 and the average ecological performance indicator is 0.17. |
| Keywords: | Technical efficiency, Ecological efficiency, Ecological performance indicator, Net primary productivity (NPP), input distance function, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182764&r=cna |