nep-cna 2010-07-10 papers

on China

Issue of 2010‒07‒10
two papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

Business Cycles, Consumption and Risk-Sharing: How Different Is China? By Chadwick C. Curtis; Nelson Mark
China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men By Das Gupta, Monica; Ebenstein, Avraham; Sharygin, Ethan Jennings

Business Cycles, Consumption and Risk-Sharing: How Different Is China?

By:	Chadwick C. Curtis; Nelson Mark
Abstract:	Can standard business-cycle methodology be applied to China? In this chapter, we address this question by examining the macroeconomic time series and identifying dimensions in which China differs from economies (such as Canada and the U.S.) that are typically the subject of business-cycle research. We show that naively applying the standard business-cycle tools to China is no more ridiculous than applying it to Canada, although the dimensions along which the model struggles is different. For China, the model cannot account for the low level of consumption (or high saving) as a proportion of income observed in the data. An examination of provincial level consumption data suggests that the absence of channels for intranational consumption risk sharing may be an important reason why the business-cycle model has trouble accounting for Chinese consumption and saving behavior.
JEL:	E21 E32 F41
Date:	2010–07
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16154&r=cna

China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men

By:	Das Gupta, Monica; Ebenstein, Avraham; Sharygin, Ethan Jennings
Abstract:	Fertility decline has fueled a sharp increase in the proportion of'missing girls'in China, so an increasing share of males will fail to marry, and will face old age without the support normally provided by wives and children. This paper shows that historically, China has had nearly-universal marriage for women and a very competitive market for men. Lower-educated men experience higher rates of bachelorhood while women favor men with better prospects, migrating if needed from poorer to wealthier areas. The authors examine the anticipated effects of this combination of bride shortage and hypergamy, for different regions of China. Their projections indicate that unmarried males will likely be concentrated in poorer provinces with low fiscal ability to provide social protection to their citizens. Such geographic concentration of unmarried males could be socially disruptive, and the paper’s findings suggest a need to expand the coverage of social protection programs financed substantially by the central government.
Keywords:	Population Policies,Population&Development,Demographics,Gender and Law,Gender and Health
Date:	2010–06–01
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5351&r=cna

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