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on China |
| By: | Jaime Marquez; John W. Schindler |
| Abstract: | Though China's share of world trade is comparable to that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available suffer from two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Second, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally-planned economy to a market-oriented system. To address these limitations, this paper develops an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble merchandise exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes the period during which most of China's decentralization occurred. The estimation results suggest that a ten-percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by a half of a percentage point. The same appreciation lowers the share of aggregate imports by about a tenth of a percentage point. |
| Keywords: | Foreign exchange rates - China ; Trade ; Econometric models |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:861&r=cna |
| By: | Shulin Gu; Bengt-Åke Lundvall |
| Abstract: | Observers around the world are impressed by the rapid growth of China’s economy. While outside observers tend to focus on the success story of unprecedented growth policy documents and recent domestic debates in China have pointed to the need for a shift in the growth trajectory with stronger emphasis on ‘endogenous innovation’ and ‘harmonious development’. This paper attempts to capture the current characteristics of China’s production and innovation system; how they were shaped by history and what major challenges they raise for the future. On the basis of the analysis the authors propose that it is possible to link together the two key concepts ‘endogenous innovation’ and ‘harmonious development’ by focusing innovation and development efforts in China on domestic needs, including social needs, rather than a one-sided focus on export-promotion and commodity production. |
| Keywords: | China; economic growth; R&D; innovation systems |
| JEL: | O32 O11 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aal:abbswp:06-07&r=cna |
| By: | Kuijs, Louis |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how China ' s saving, investment, and saving-investment balance will evolve in the decades ahead. Household saving in China is relatively high compared with OECD countries. However, much of China ' s high economywide saving, and the difference between China and other countries, are due to unusually high enterprise and government saving. Moreover, cross-country empirical analysis shows that economywide saving and investment in China are higher than what would be expected, even adjusting for differences in economic structure. Combined, these findings suggest that much of China ' s high saving is the result of policies particular to China. Looking ahead, the econometric results suggest that purely on the basis of projected structural developments-including development, changes in economic structure, urbanization, and demographics-saving and investment would both decline only mildly in the coming two decades, with ambiguous impact on the current account surplus. However, the potential effect on saving, investment, and the saving-investment balance of several policy adjustments could be large. Several of these policies are identified and their likely impact assessed and quantified. This exercise suggests that rebalancing along these lines should reduce both saving and the current account surplus over time, although the surplus is unlikely to turn into a deficit soon. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Investment and Investment Climate,Economic Investment & Savings,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Contractual Savings |
| Date: | 2006–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3958&r=cna |
| By: | Simeon Djankov (The World Bank); Yingyi Qian (UC Berkeley and CEPR); Gerard Roland (UC Berkeley and CEPR); Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (New Economic School/CEFIR and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We compare results from a pilot study on entrepreneurship in China and Russia. Compared to non-entrepreneurs, Russian and Chinese entrepreneurs have more entrepreneurs in their family and among childhood friends, value work more relative to leisure and have higher wealth ambitions. Russian entrepreneurs have a better educational background and their parents were more likely to have been members of the communist party but Chinese entrepreneurs are more risk-taking and greedy and have more entrepreneurs among their childhood friends. |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0049&r=cna |
| By: | Simeon Djankov (The World Bank); Yingyi Qian (UC Berkeley and CEPR); Gerard Roland (UC Berkeley and CEPR); Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (New Economic School/CEFIR and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Social scientists studying the determinants of entrepreneurship have emphasized three distinct perspectives: the role of institutions, the role of social networks and the role of personal characteristics. We conduct a survey from five large developing and transition economies to better understand entrepreneurship in view of these three perspectives. Using data from a pilot study with over 2,000 interviews in 7 cities across China, we find that compared to non entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs are much more likely to have family members who are entrepreneurs as well as childhood friends who became entrepreneurs, suggesting that social networks play an important role in entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs also differ strongly from non entrepreneurs in their attitudes towards risk and their work-leisure preferences. |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0047&r=cna |
| By: | Jiahua Che (Hong Kong University of Science Technology and William Davidson Institute); Giovanni Facchini (University of Illinois and University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | The dual track approach to market liberalization has been widely recognized as the key to the success of the Chinese economic reform. In this paper we study the effectiveness of this strategy in economic environments where the status quo government control is incomplete. We show that in a dynamic context intertemporal arbitrage will emerge, potentially resulting in efficiency losses and/or adverse distributional effects. Only when the status quo involves both price and quantity interventions by the government can dual track liberalization maintain its appeal. Our analysis thus suggests some caution as for the broader applicability of this reform mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Dual Track Liberalization, Intertemporal Arbitrage, Pareto Improving Reforms, China |
| JEL: | H2 P2 F1 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:204&r=cna |