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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to bring a rising economic, social, and humanitarian toll. The attacks on the energy infrastructure have inflicted severe economic damage and losses, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. The war is expected to continue through the coming year, generating expenditure pressures and opening additional financing needs. In addition to the longer war, several other recent developments carry important implications for the IMF-supported program: first, a package of tax measures awaits adoption by Parliament, after which the authorities must continue to build on this effort with further broad-based measures to support fiscal sustainability; second, the successful Eurobond exchange in August is a major achievement toward restoring debt sustainability and securing debt relief amid pressing expenditure needs; and finally, the G7’s assurance to provide US$50 billion of stable, multi-year financing to Ukraine through Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative is critical for meeting the now larger financing needs. |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/314 |
| By: | Daria Suprunenko |
| Abstract: | While significant attention has been dedicated to sanctions episodes among major economies which usually rely on a diverse set of trade partners, little is known about the impact of sanctions imposed by senders on economies highly dependent on them. Using Ukrainian export data for 2009–2019 at product level, I study the effects of trade restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine since 2016 accounting for the impact of Russian occupation and destruction of productive capacities. I find no evidence for evasion of Russian trade policy measures via export to other members of the Eurasian Economic Union or product misclassification, instead trade flows were redirected to new destinations. Industries with higher exposure to Russian market experienced significant reductions in employment, number of enterprises and turnover when targeted by embargo. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Russia, sanctions, trade war |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0124 |
| By: | Bilal Mahli |
| Abstract: | German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ‘Zeitenwende’ in February 2022 marked a significant shift in German foreign and security policy in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This paper analyzes Germany’s new strategic direction, including increased defense spending, reduced energy dependence on Russia, and strengthened NATO and EU alliances. It examines the domestic political debates surrounding these changes and their implications for European security dynamics. The study also explores the impact on Germany’s relationships with key partners including France, the United States, and countries of the Global South. Finally, it offers recommendations for a more coherent, decisive, and strategic German foreign policy. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_12-24 |
| By: | Vasily Astrov; Feodora Teti; Lisa Scheckenhofer; Camille Semelet |
| Abstract: | This report highlights the effects of international sanctions on Russia's economic performance up to mid-2024. Despite monetary tightening, Russia's early 2024 economic growth remained strong due to a tight labor market and continued credit expansion. The fiscal outlook has improved with more positive short- and medium-term projections despite increased military and social spending. The trade surplus remained almost unchanged, masking declines in both exports and imports. Russian imports surged at the end of 2023 but have recently declined: Increased payment difficulties with third countries, exacerbated by recent U.S. executive orders, have suppressed imports despite strong domestic demand and the ruble's real effective appreciation since late 2023. In terms of trade of high-priority sanctioned products, an analysis of quantities and values traded reveals that Russia has shifted towards lower-quality suppliers from countries like China, Türkiye, and Kazakhstan. The sanctions' effectiveness thus largely depends on substituting high-quality Western goods with lower-quality alternatives. In 2023, Russia secured between 60% and 170% of sanctioned high-priority items compared to 2021 levels. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_51 |
| By: | Magdalena Knapi?ska (Poznan University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this study is to analyze the flows of immigrants and emigrants in Poland. The paper starts with a literature review of economic theories of migration and demographic trends. In the last years, Poland experienced a large change migratory pattern and geographic labour mobility. While Poland was initially a source country in international migration, it is becoming increasingly a target country for migration flows. This development was accelerated by the war in Ukraine. Based on the geographical proximity and a long tradition of intense of short-term migration from Ukraine to Poland, nearly a half million of refugees from Ukraine moved to Poland. Moreover, the scope of migration changed from the short-term to the long-term migration. Although, this development caused some short-term structural problems in various fields including education and social system, the Polish economy was able to absorb the war refugee flows better than expected. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects and Forecasts, Labor and Demographic Economics, Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers |
| JEL: | J11 J00 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516367 |
| By: | Jaroschevsky, Yuri |
| Abstract: | [Introduction:] This analysis is an overview of the main areas within the relationship between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. It touches upon such aspects of the ties between the two countries as the political and economic integration, the interaction of their military, security and law enforcement forces, as well as issues related to the public opinion on these processes. The aim of this exercise is to provide a brief yet substantive overview of the key reasons behind the current state of relations, close yet quite unequal, between the two countries. A particular attention has been accorded to the process of transformation of the once multi-vector Belarusian policy into a subordinate partnership with Russia, the changes accompanying this process, as well as the reasons that have produced the dramatically substantial inequality between the two parties, inequality that cannot be explained exclusively by objective factors. The objectives of the research have emerged as, firstly, an overview of the historical events that had predestined the rapprochement of the two States; secondly, an analysis of the legal and institutional forms of the integration process, thirdly, the identification of those factors and events that strongly affected or significantly altered the relationship between the two countries, and, finally, the identification of the steps, both implemented and still remaining on paper, towards the gradually overwhelming subordination of the Belarusian State to the Russian geopolitical regional project. (...) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gluwps:304313 |
| By: | FUJII Daisuke |
| Abstract: | Recent events of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US-China decoupling have shown that key trade policies today are shaped by geopolitical risks and economic security concerns. In Japan, economic security in increasingly complex global supply chains is also being discussed as an important policy theme, though quantitative evidence remains scarce. This paper aims to quantify the impact of trade disruptions with China on the Japanese economy. To do so, I develop a general equilibrium model of production networks with international trade, which incorporates non-unitary elasticity of substitution across intermediate inputs. The model is calibrated using large-scale firm-level network data from Japan. The aggregate impact of trade disruption is substantial in the short run but becomes milder in the long run. If both exports and imports with China decline by 90%, real GDP is projected to drop by 7% within a year. Additionally, import disruptions cause more severe damage than export disruptions. There is significant sectoral heterogeneity in the negative impact of trade disruptions, depending on sectoral exposure to trade, the share of intermediate inputs, and position within production networks. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24073 |
| By: | Erez Z. Shoshani (Ruppin Academic Center) |
| Abstract: | Since 2020 we have seen major fluctuations in globalization processes, especially in its economic dimension. The pandemic followed by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, escalating violence in the Middle East, and rising regional tensions in other parts of the world influenced trade levels particularly of merchandise. Although the World Trade Organization forecasts a recovery in the near future it also issues a warning that the continuation of international conflicts may disrupt growth.This study will analyze current changes in the international system and their relation to different globalization processes outcomes. Furthermore it will aim at describing a potential formation of a more stable global system, albeit the existing international security situation. Such a system formation is conditioned upon certain international normative processes that will be reviewed. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, International security, Normative changes |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:14816411 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Mahmoud Arbouch; Pepe Zhang; Abdelaaziz Ait Ali |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reignited the debate on efficiency versus resilience in international trade and global value chains (GVCs). This policy brief [a] (i) explains the contrasting perspectives of the private sector (primarily seeking efficiency) and the public sector (aiming for resilience); (ii) demonstrates that GVCs are still flourishing, despite some mounting signals of a geo-fragmentation leading to greater reallocation of the GVCs; and (iii) provides recommendations to help the G20 navigate the balancing act between efficiency and resilience considerations. Domestic policy design in the G20 countries and international coordination among these countries is essential. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rtrade:t20_pb_tf-1_12 |
| By: | Francesca Caselli; Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin; Mr. Frederik G Toscani; Jiaxiong Yao |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023. The recent migration has helped accommodate strong labor demand, with around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 filled by non-EU citizens, while unemployment of EU citizens remained at historical lows. Ukrainian refugees also appear to have been absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries. The stronger-than-expected net migration over 2020-23 into the euro area (of around 2 million workers) is estimated to push up potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030—slightly less than half the euro area’s annual potential GDP growth at that time—even if immigrants are assumed to be 20 percent less productive than natives. This highlights the important role immigration can play in attenuating the effects of the Europe’s challenging demographic outlook. On the flipside, the large inflow had initial fiscal costs and likely led to some congestion of local public services such as schooling. Policy efforts should thus seek to continue to integrate migrants into the labor force while making sure that the supply of public services and amenities (including at the local level) keeps up with the population increase. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Labor Markets; European Union |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/211 |
| By: | Sabrine Emran; Oussama Tayebi |
| Abstract: | Le contexte de tensions géopolitiques accrues et rémanentes que connaît le monde depuis quelques années, marqué par la dégradation des relations entre les États-Unis et la Chine, l'escalade des tensions à Taïwan, et le conflit entre la Russie et l'Ukraine, a engendré des répercussions majeures sur les politiques d'approvisionnement en minerais stratégiques et critiques de plusieurs États. Les récentes crises, notamment la pandémie de COVID-19 et le conflit en Ukraine, ont mis en évidence la vulnérabilité des chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales face aux chocs et aléas géopolitiques, poussant de nombreux pays à repenser leur approche en ce qui concerne la sécurisation des matières premières et la diversification des sources d’approvisionnement. En effet, les inquiétudes liées à la dépendance excessive à l'approvisionnement en provenance de certains partenaires, considérés comme risqués ou peu fiables, ont incité de nombreux pays à repenser leur approche en matière de sécurité d'approvisionnement. C’est dans cet esprit que nous avons vu émerger des stratégies visant à favoriser la relocalisation, la « nearshorisation » ou la « friendshorisation » de tout ou partie de certaines chaînes de valeurs liées aux minerais critiques ainsi que l’investissement dans le développement de procédés de recyclage et de substitution. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_01-24 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Launched in 2018, the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC) aims to establish a leading international financial center for financial services in Astana, as well as to attract foreign investment and support the growth and development of Kazakhstan and the region. Drawing from a model adopted in the Gulf region, the AIFC is established as a distinct and separate jurisdiction operating under its own legal structure, governance arrangements and regulatory framework (the Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) is the designated regulatory authority). Nonetheless, there are multiple interconnections between the AIFC and the domestic financial system that may impact financial stability in Kazakhstan. Policy challenges arise when financial services may be provided under distinct legal and regulatory arrangements from both a ‘domestic’ jurisdiction and a jurisdictionally-separated international financial center. Financial activity in the Center remains small, limiting the immediate risks to Kazakhstan financial stability, but given the strategy of the Center, service provision is expected to increase and interlinkages with the Kazakhstan financial system to grow, raising the systemic importance of the AIFC, as well as the associated risks. While some positive steps have been taken to address these risks, additional enhancements are advisable, to further reinforce regulatory arrangements and lower the risks of spillover, arbitrage, and gaps arising from the co-existence of separate regulatory frameworks for the domestic financial system and the AIFC. Development of a Financial Stability Protocol would codify objectives, responsibilities and working procedures and help ensure effective cooperation and collaboration between the Kazakhstan domestic regulatory agency (ARDFM), the central bank (NBK), and AFSA, in support of the common goal of financial stability in Kazakhstan. |
| Date: | 2024–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/313 |