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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Wagner, Christian (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the Indian Union has experienced a significant rise in status in German and European foreign policy. This process has been fuelled by India's economic dynamism as the fastest-growing democracy and its geopolitical role as a partner in the Indo-Pacific against China's hegemonic ambitions. For Germany, India is an indispensable but difficult partner. The country will maintain its strategic autonomy and use the Sino-American rivalry to further its own geopolitical ambitions. Despite the shared commitment to a rules-based international order, there will continue to be differences in the assessment of geopolitical conflicts, as in the case of Russia's war against Ukraine. The agreements on triangular cooperation and on migration and mobility have taken Indo-German relations to a new level. The first joint military exercises in the summer of 2024, which fulfilled India's long-held wish for closer defence cooperation, will help to further deepen bilateral relations. As India is becoming increasingly important in German foreign policy, it is necessary to significantly improve expertise on the country's domestic and foreign policy developments in the German academic landscape. |
| Keywords: | Indian Union, Germany, strategic autonomy, Sino-American rivalry, geopolitical ambitions, geopolitical conflicts, Russia's war against Ukraine, Indo-German Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreement, EU-India Free Trade Agreement, global agricultural power, defence cooperation, cyberdiplomatic cooperation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:307136 |
| By: | Aytun, Uğur; Hinz, Julian; Özgüzel, Cem |
| Abstract: | In November 2015, Turkey's unexpected downing of a Russian military jet in Syria prompted Russia to impose a swift and comprehensive embargo on specific Turkish exports. This study leverages this quasi-natural experiment to estimate both the immediate and longer-term effects of the imposition and subsequent lifting of these sanctions. Utilizing administrative data encompassing all Turkish exporters, we first examine the impact on trade at the firm level, assessing the direct effects of the embargo, the redirection of trade to alternative markets, and the circumvention through other products. Second, we investigate broader repercussions on domestic operations, including firms' sales, procurement, and employment. Our findings show that while the embargo caused immediate and substantial declines in exports of affected products to Russia, firms partially mitigated these losses through trade diversion. Although relative trade patterns normalized post-sanctions, absolute trade values remained subdued. The analysis reveals that affected firms experienced declines in domestic sales and supplier relationships, with temporary disruptions in employment. However, most negative effects dissipated following the embargo's removal, except for some persistent reductions in procurement and supplier links. These results contribute to the understanding of sanctions' broader economic implications and the resilience of firms facing trade disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Embargoes, Firm-level Effects, Gravity |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:306823 |
| By: | Wang, Shu |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a high-frequency structural VAR framework for identifying oil price shocks and examining their uncertainty transmission in the U.S. macroeconomy and financial markets. Leveraging the stylized features of financial data - specifically, volatility clustering effectively captured by a GARCH model - this approach achieves global identification of shocks while allowing for volatility spillovers across them. Findings reveal that increased variance in aggregate demand shocks increases the oil-equity price covariance, while precautionary demand shocks, triggering heightened investor risk aversion, significantly diminish this covariance. A real-time forecast error variance decomposition further highlights that oil supply uncertainty was the primary source of oil price forecast uncertainty from late March to early May 2020, yet it contributed minimally during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, uncertainty, impulse response functions, structural VAR, forecast error variance decomposition, GARCH |
| JEL: | Q43 Q47 C32 C58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:307602 |
| By: | Tatyana Shelovanova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | Data of the All-Russian Survey of Consumer Finances for 2020 and 2022 are used to analyse the relationship between financial literacy and responsible financial behaviour indices. Responsible financial behaviour involves consumption smoothing, asset diversification, nonspeculative investments and a low/moderate debt burden, acquisition of information for decisionmaking, the appropriate perception of macroeconomic trends, the absence of naive decisions and confidence about the future. The role of financial literacy is controlled by including educational indicators, financial experience, personal preferences (risk tolerance, planning horizon / future discounting, overconfidence, optimism) and a large number of standard control variables. The results show a positive relationship between financial literacy and overall responsible financial behaviour. Our analysis of the aggregate indicator’s components lead us to conclude that improved financial literacy at the individual level can help smooth out consumption (through diversification of savings) and, at the macroeconomic level, help development the economy and financial market instruments. In general, financial literacy fails to guarantee confidence in state pension initiatives and does not ensure a less risky investment profile or a lower debt burden. |
| Keywords: | financial literacy, financial behaviour, saving behaviour of households, financial behaviour index, survey of consumer finances, Russia |
| JEL: | C83 D14 G41 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps132 |
| By: | Tamara P. Tsyganash (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Valaria A. Gert (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anastasià D. Kropacheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Keywords: | secondary consumption, consumer practices, second-hand clothing, online platform |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:102/soc/2024 |
| By: | Ержан Ислам // Yerzhan Islam (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Акпанов Арман // Akpanov Arman (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Инфляционные ожидания играют ключевую роль для центральных банков, особенно в странах с режимом инфляционного таргетирования. Они оказывают значительное влияние на фактический уровень инфляции, воздействуя на решения как потребителей, так и предприятий. Это влияние проявляется через инфляцию спроса и предложения: с одной стороны, потребители, основываясь на ожиданиях динамики цен, корректируют свои решения о покупке товаров и услуг, с другой – предприятия определяют цены в зависимости от ожидаемых издержек, включающих динамику заработных плат, что формирует инфляцию предложения. Точное измерение инфляционных ожиданий имеет критически важное значение для проведения эффективной денежно-кредитной политики. На это влияет множество факторов, включая размер выборки респондентов и используемая методология расчетов. Поскольку с января 2023 года Национальный Банк Республики Казахстан использует медианные оценки инфляционных ожиданий, одним из ключевых вопросов становится определение оптимальной ширины интервалов. В данной работе проводится анализ существующих методов определения оптимальной ширины интервалов для медианы сгруппированных данных об инфляционных ожиданиях населения, а также определяется наиболее подходящая ширина интервалов для Казахстана. // Inflation expectations play a pivotal role for central banks, particularly in countries with inflation targeting regimes. They exert a significant influence on the actual level of inflation by shaping the decisions of both consumers and businesses. This influence manifests through demand-pull and cost-push inflation mechanisms. On the one hand, consumers adjust their purchasing decisions for goods and services based on anticipated price trends. On the other hand, businesses set prices according to expected costs, including wage dynamics, which contribute to cost-push inflation. The precise measurement of inflation expectations is critically important for conducting effective monetary policy. This process is influenced by various factors, including the sample size of respondents and the calculation methodology employed. Since January 2023, the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan has been employing median estimates of inflation expectations, making the determination of optimal interval widths a key issue. This study analyzes existing methods for determining the optimal interval width for the median of grouped data on public inflation expectations and identifies the most suitable interval width for Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | инфляционные ожидания, ширина интервалов, медианные оценки, метод Берка, inflation expectations, interval width, median estimates, Berk method |
| JEL: | E31 E52 C83 C43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:57 |
| By: | Mihnea Constantinescu (National Bank of Ukraine; University of Amsterdam); Kalle Kappner (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München); Nikodem Szumilo (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the Warcast Index, an approach for estimating regional economic activity during periods of extreme uncertainty using publicly available data. We show that combining widely used correlates of economic activity – nightlight intensity, Google Trends, and Twitter activity – can improve the tracking of economic performance and even allow the approximation of monthly economic activity after extreme structural breaks, like war or occupation. We apply this approach to Ukraine during the 2022 war. Our findings show that combining multiple data sources not only improves tracking accuracy compared to single-correlate models, but also provides timely, transparent and flexible data for policy-making in situations where conventional economic data is unavailable or unreliable. We also contribute to the literature on wartime economics by providing a novel analysis of the economic effects of armed conflict with high frequency (monthly) and spatially granular (regional) data. |
| Keywords: | estimating GDP, nwcasting GDP, wartime economics, nightlights, Google trends, Twitter data |
| JEL: | B41 C82 E01 O11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:03/2024 |
| By: | Құратова Ақбөпе // Kuratova Akbope (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Ускенбаев Азат // Uskenbayev (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | НБРК продолжает цикл исследований, посвященных анализу внешнего сектора экономики Казахстана. Одним из основных показателей внешнеэкономической устойчивости страны являются международные резервы. Величина резервов, позволяющая покрыть риски, связанные с резкими колебаниями обменного курса и оттоком капитала из страны, считается достаточной. Однако, определение «достаточного, адекватного» уровня резервов и факторов риска для каждой страны отличается. В данном исследовании анализируются источники рисков внезапного оттока капитала и рассматриваются различные подходы к оценке «достаточного» уровня резервов для Казахстана. |
| Keywords: | внешний сектор, международные резервы, достаточность резервов, ARA, спрос на резервы |
| JEL: | C22 C51 C53 E50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:58 |
| By: | Clodomiro Ferreira (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Stefano Pica (BANK OF ITALY) |
| Abstract: | Using granular data on household subjective expectations for several countries, we uncover a robust positive reaction of inflation expectations to a contractionary monetary policy shock, a result at odds with standard equilibrium theories with nominal rigidities. We then investigate what lies behind such result. Although households disagree, their expectations are correlated in the cross-section. Two principal components account for a significant portion of the variance of all expectations. These components capture households’ perceptions of the sources of macroeconomic dynamics, with the first capturing either a supply-side view or an overall dislike for inflation, and the second component reflecting a perception about demand pressures. This structure of disagreement is stable across countries and over time and does not vary with demographic or socioeconomic characteristics. We then use these insights to identify two common factors driving expectations over time. These factors are consistent with a narrative based on perceived supply-side inflationary pressures after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as well as with the overall downward inflation dynamics intensified by the reaction of the ECB. |
| Keywords: | survey, expectations, disagreement, monetary policy |
| JEL: | D1 D8 E2 E3 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2445 |
| By: | Florian Dorn |
| Abstract: | Key MessagesDefense spending above the NATO target of 2% of GDP would be necessary for Europe to be able to provide sufficient security and to defend itself without the protective umbrella of the US.European countries must increase their efforts to catch up with an adequate defense capability, as defense budgets andmilitary investments have been too low for years.Many European countries must compensate for higher real military costs – including wages for soldiers and costs formilitary equipment – than, for example, in Russia or China.More efficient and integrated military structures need to be established in Europe in the long term. The currentgeopolitical situation immediately requires higher defense spending.European governments need a credible plan to sustainably increase defense capabilities without jeopardizing budgetarystability and economic competitiveness. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_66 |
| By: | Sanzhar Aitzhanov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on examining the role of language as an attribute in the construction of ethnicity within the Korean community in Kazakhstan. The research examines how language functions as an attribute in the categorization and identification processes, and how it interacts with other ethnic attributes such as descent and appearance. Drawing on qualitative methods, including interviews and focus groups, the study reveals that language plays a central role in the identification of individuals as “Russian” or “Hanguk” (Korean nationals from South Korea), while local Koreans don't use it to differentiate themselves from other ethnic groups within Kazakhstan. The findings suggest that language, particularly when other visible attributes are absent, can serve as an independent attribute of ethnic belonging. The study contributes to a broader understanding of ethnicity and identity construction. |
| Keywords: | ethnicity, constructivism, Koreans, Kazakhstan, South Korea, identification |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:116/lng/2024 |
| By: | Vicente Ferreira; Joao Pedro Ferreira; Dario Guarascio; Francesco Zezza |
| Abstract: | The return of inflation in Western economies has fueled the debate on its main drivers, bringing sector-specific shocks and supply chain bottlenecks to the forefront. Building on the seminal approach of Weber et al. (2024), this paper develops a method to assess the degree of exposure to these shocks in EU countries. Using inter-country input-output data stemming from the FIGARO database, we identify systemically significant sectors in four regions within the EU: Core, Southern Periphery, Eastern Periphery, and financial hubs. We also analyze exposure to foreign shocks. Two main conclusions can be drawn: on the one hand, periphery countries are more exposed to shocks originating in the EU core than the other way around; on the other hand, all EU regions are considerably exposed to price shocks originating from non-EU countries (namely, Russia and China). The strategic dependencies of the block pose challenges for price stability and require targeted policies. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Supply chain shocks; Input-Output; Core-periphery |
| JEL: | C67 E31 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp254 |
| By: | Jan Frankowski; Aleksandra Prusak; Jakub Sokołowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Tomasz Świetlik |
| Abstract: | The importance of energy as a common good becomes especially pronounced during crises. This paper reconstructs the response of housing cooperatives to the energy crisis by applying Kenneth Burke’s five categories of theatre interpretation and eighteen impression management strategies inspired by Erving Goffman’s dramaturgical sociology to assess the dominant cooperative approaches. We analyse a unique dataset of 215 annual reports of Polish rural housing cooperatives, which display a range of reactive, proactive, and collaborative attitudes to high energy prices and fuel shortages resulting from the embargo on Russian coal. The unexpected nature of the crisis led four out of five rural housing cooperatives to adopt defensive impression management strategies. The three most common strategies were crisis attribution (66%), resourceful management (18%), and deliberative silence (12%). Our findings portray housing cooperatives as solitary and routine actors, undertaking an extraordinary effort often beyond their capacities. While cooperative efforts were partially supplemented by resident solidarity, particularly within micro-cooperatives reliant on coal with a stronger sense of community, the uncertain future of these entities calls for louder advocacy, targeted financial support, and better recognition of rural cooperatives as heating communities and intermediaries essential for ensuring local energy security. |
| Keywords: | housing cooperatives, heating, local communities, energy transition |
| JEL: | P13 O18 P28 P48 P31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp042024 |
| By: | Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Magdalena Frei; Artem Kochnev; Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Renate Prasch; Hana Ruskova; Monika Schwarzhappel (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Banushi Xhesika |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the historical dataset with economic time series of socialist Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia (CSSR), the German Democratic Republic (GDR), Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Soviet Union (USSR) and Yugoslavia from 1944 to 1993 as well as a new dataset on Albania created as part of this project. The paper explains the dataset’s structure and gaps as well as the harmonisation efforts and accounting methodologies adopted in the member countries of the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA or COMECON) during that period. The paper serves as a companion for the users of the wiiw COMECON Dataset. wiiw COMECON Dataset https //comecon.wiiw.ac.at/ |
| Keywords: | CMEA, COMECON, socialist countries, Albania, Bulgaria, CSSR, GDR, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, population, net material product, GDP, investment, labour market, prices, wages, production, consumption per capita, budget, trade by partners, trade by commodities and regions, conversion factors, external finance, economic history, comparative economic systems, historical dataset of economic time series. |
| JEL: | B22 B24 B27 B40 B41 N14 N34 N44 N54 N64 N74 P20 P30 P51 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:spaper:statr:13 |
| By: | McCully, Tuuli; Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | We examine changes in the manufacturing sector value chains of the EU, US, China, and India between 2018 and 2023 by introducing three metrics for supply-chain vulnerability. For our first metric, the physical length of a supply chain based on the distance between the producer of the final product and input source country, we find modest evidence of near-shoring for the US, EU, and India. Second, utilizing political distances between the supply chain participants, our assessment of the geopolitical risks of supply chains reveals slight friend-shoring by the US and EU, mainly a result of Russia's reduced participation in their supply chains. Third, looking at the already extensive supply chain diversification of the studied countries, we find diversification has increased modestly since 2018. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, supply chains, fragmentation, value-added trade, input-output |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:307141 |