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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Gugushvili, Alexi |
| Abstract: | This study examines public perceptions of the Ukraine war, focusing on Russian attitudes toward its economic and political impacts compared to other countries. Drawing on theoretical perspectives such as the Spiral of Silence and collective action constraints, this research explores how sociopolitical context shapes public opinion in an authoritarian country. Using cross-national survey data, the analysis reveals significant differences in war-related assessments. Despite severe economic repercussions, many Russians report optimism about the war’s effects, especially on economic growth, diverging from the prevalent concerns in neighboring nations. Key factors such as gender, education, region of residence, institutional trust, and media consumption explain the heterogeneity in these perceptions. The findings underscore the role of individual characteristics, regional contexts, and institutional trust in sustaining public support for conflict in complex sociopolitical environments, contributing to broader discussions on national contexts and public attitudes in wartime. |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y8rzh_v1 |
| By: | Peez, Anton (Goethe University Frankfurt); Bethke, Felix S. |
| Abstract: | Does public opinion on international affairs affect elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to elite decisionmakers. We examine elite responsiveness to public opinion on sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. We fielded a pre-registered experiment within the 2022 TRIP survey of US foreign policy practitioners, offering a rare opportunity for a fairly large elite survey experiment (N = 253). We used contemporary public polling highly supportive of increasing sanctions as an information treatment. Our research design, involving a salient issue and real-world treatment, substantially expands on previous work. Exposure to the treatment raises elite support for increasing sanctions from 68.0% to 76.3% (+8.3 pp.). While meaningful, this effect is smaller than those identified elsewhere. We argue that this difference is driven by pre-treatment dynamics related to issue salience and ceiling effects, and is therefore all the more notable. We provide evidence for substantial treatment effect heterogeneity depending on subject-matter expertise, degree of involvement in political decision-making, and gender, but not party identification. While our results support previous research, they highlight issues of external validity and the context-dependence of elite responsiveness. |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qzrj2_v1 |
| By: | Amankwah, Akuffo; Ambel, Alemayehu A.; Gourlay, Sydney; Kilic, Talip; Markhof, Yannick Valentin; Wollburg, Philip Randolph |
| Abstract: | Since 2020, many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced disruptions to agricultural activities due to the adverse effects of multiple global crises. Notably, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in inorganic fertilizer prices, which had potentially significant impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture sector given that most countries in the region are net importers of inorganic fertilizers and the Russian Federation is the world’s largest exporter. Using high-frequency longitudinal phone survey data spanning four years from six Sub-Saharan African countries, this paper examines the dynamics of smallholder agriculture against the backdrop of these crises, with particular focus on prices, availability, and use of inorganic fertilizer, as well as the strategies employed by farmers to cope with high fertilizer prices and other accessibility constraints. The results show that inorganic fertilizer prices have increased in the region since 2020, forcing smallholder farmers to adopt coping mechanisms that are less productivity-enhancing, making them even more susceptible to future crises. Specifically, farming households reduced the quantity of inorganic fertilizer applied, by applying it at lower rates or to a smaller area. In some cases, households sold assets or borrowed money to cope with the high prices of inorganic fertilizers. This calls for policies to help smallholder farmers in the region to build strong support systems to be more resilient and better able to cope with the adverse effects of rising inorganic fertilizer prices during polycrises and related shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10842 |
| By: | Klaus W. Deininger; Daniel Ayalew Ali; Kussul, Nataliia; Lemoine, Guido; Shelestov, Andrii |
| Abstract: | This paper uses remotely sensed and farm-level data to assess the micro-level impacts of the war in Ukraine. Remotely sensed, high-resolution data on areas of war-induced agricultural field damage in different periods are combined with crop cover data for a 2019–23 panel of about 10, 000 village councils. Estimates suggest that there were significant negative effects of field damage on crop area, with persistent, direct impacts, the size of which increased over time. However, the economic losses due to conflict-induced increased transport costs reduced profitability by more than 60 percent, far surpassing the losses from direct crop damage in conflict areas. The lack of diversification into less transport cost sensitive, higher value crops—even in areas far from the conflict zone—points to constraints to adaptation and diversification. By increasing the resilience of farmers in non-conflict areas, removing such constraints could accelerate post-conflict recovery and complement efforts toward reconstruction in directly affected areas. |
| Date: | 2024–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10869 |
| By: | Жузбаев Адам // Zhuzbayev (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Сейдахметова Баян // Seidakhmetova Bayan (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Шамар Бауыржан // Shamar Bauyrzhan (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Толегенова Жибек // Tolegenova Zhibek (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Данное исследование посвящено анализу взаимосвязей между инфляцией и денежной массой в Казахстане. Идея работы основана на количественной теории денег, которая вновь приобрела актуальность в последние годы. Основная цель исследования заключалась в определении наличия долгосрочных и краткосрочных связей между данными экономическими переменными и выработке соответствующей рекомендации по проведению денежно-кредитной политики в Казахстане. В ходе исследования были использованы современные эконометрические методы (wavelet-based анализ, VECM и VAR модели) анализа временных рядов, что позволило получить значимые результаты, подтверждающие устойчивую взаимосвязь между инфляцией и денежной массой на горизонте до 10 лет. По результатам анализа выявлены эпизоды избыточного роста денежной массы с определением «проинфляционности» её роста, произведена количественная оценка влияния денежной массы на инфляцию в краткосрочном и долгосрочном периодах. Полученные выводы предоставляют новые перспективы для проведения эффективной денежно-кредитной политики, направленной на обеспечение макроэкономической стабильности и снижение инфляционных рисков в Казахстане. |
| Keywords: | инфляция, wavelet-based анализ, векторная модель коррекции ошибок, денежная масса, денежно-кредитная политика, векторная авторегрессия, импульсные отклики, когерентность, эпизоды инфляционного роста |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E31 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:63 |
| By: | Klaus W. Deininger; Daniel Ayalew Ali |
| Abstract: | While cash transfers have emerged as an attractive option to minimize negative long-term impacts of conflict, the scope for targeting and assessing their impact in such settings is often challenging. This paper shows how a digital farmer registry in Ukraine (the State Agrarian Register) helped to target and evaluate such a program, using the country’s $50 million Producer Support Grant in a way that largely avoided mis-targeting. The analysis applies a difference-in-differences design with panel data from 2019–23 on crop cover at the parcel/farm level for the universe of eligible farmers registered in the State Agrarian Register. The findings suggest that the program significantly increased area cultivated, although the effect size remained modest. Impacts were most pronounced near the frontline and for the smallest farmers. The paper discusses the implications in terms of a more diversified menu of support options and the scope of using the State Agrarian Register to help to implement these options, as well as lessons beyond Ukraine. |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10912 |
| By: | Duden, Christoph; Böhner, Hannah; Kuhnert, Heike; Lampkin, Nicolas; Offermann, Frank; Röder, Norbert; Tegetmeyer, Inga |
| Abstract: | This report provides initial quantitative analyses of the use of eco-schemes in the 2023 to 2027 CAP programming period in Germany. These analyses were supplemented by a literature-based analysis of the environmental impacts of the eco-schemes and a discussion of selected aspects of the role of the eco-schemes in the so-called "Green Architecture of the CAP". The report thus contributes to the evaluation of the instruments for supporting environment, climate and animal welfare provided for in the GAP-Direktzahlungen-Gesetz (CAP Direct Payments Act). As part of the quantitative evaluation, application data available nationwide for the years 2023 and 2024 were analysed by federal state. In addition, an in-depth analysis of the utilisation of the eco-schemes was carried out according to selected operational characteristics of the agricultural enterprises. This was based on pseudonymised individual farm IACS data from Bavaria, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Lower Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate for the application year 2023. The results were summarised in factsheets for each eco-scheme. There are strong regional and farm differences in the utilisation of the eco-schemes. The participation rate was comparatively high for farms of the type "other fodder production" (cattle and sheep farms excluding dairy). In addition, organic farms made above-average use of several measures. Special influencing factors must be taken into account when interpreting the results of the first two application years. These include learning costs due to the introduction of the eco-schemes and exceptional price fluctuations on agricultural markets as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The qualitative analysis of the environmental impacts of the eco-schemes shows that these vary depending on the specific measure and the respective context. While some eco-schemes primarily serve to stabilise the current state of the environment, others, such as ÖR 1 (fallow land) and ÖR 3 (agroforestry), offer significant potential for improving biodiversity as well as soil and climate protection. However, particularly in the case of measures with high potential for environmental improvement, uptake fell short of the targets set. The integration in the Green Architecture of Pillar 1 eco-schemes with Pillar 2 agri-environmental and climate measures is made more difficult by administrative complexity and federal differences. The advantages of the eco-schemes compared to the agri-environmental and climate measures of the 2nd pillar are shorter commitment periods and simplified application procedures. Based on the analyses and experiences of the first two years of the current funding period, initial recommendations for the further development of the eco-schemes are derived. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwp:350169 |
| By: | Feinstein, Yuval; David, Geffen Ben |
| Abstract: | Studies of public reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have renewed interest in the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon of public opinion. At the same time, another group of studies has focused on political polarization and the strengthening of radical right parties in many countries. The current study synthesizes these two lines of research by exploring how public opinion in deeply polarized countries changes in response to violent international conflicts that, in a less polarized context, would likely have led most citizens to close ranks behind the government and its war policy. We analyzed original panel data collected in Israel before and after the October 7 massacre and during Israel’s retaliation in Gaza. The findings reveal a “segmented rally, ” in which the vast majority of Jewish Israelis supported the war and trusted the security forces, but trust in the government and the prime minister was more limited. In addition, the analysis identified two distinct sets of mechanisms driving opinion formation. Support for the war and security forces was motivated by feelings of threat, humiliation, and rage. In contrast, respondents’ trust or mistrust of the government and the prime minister hinged on what they viewed as the cause of the security crisis—the government or anti-government protesters—an assessment driven by their preexisting views on the government’s “judicial reform” initiative. The paper concludes by discussing the mutual impacts of polarization and public reactions to crises. |
| Date: | 2024–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wpjbz_v1 |
| By: | François Cassière (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Bruno Durand (CEROS - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur les Organisations et la Stratégie - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre) |
| Abstract: | L'année 2020 a été marquée par le début de la crise de la Covid-19. L'année 2021 lui a ressemblé en tous points. Début 2022, alors que l'Europe s'en relevait, la guerre a éclaté en Ukraine. Ces évènements internationaux, inattendus, ont affecté les supply chains mondiales. Ils ont révélé la vulnérabilité des chaînes d'approvisionnement, pointant leur manque de résilience. Pour certains groupes, en particulier Michelin, l'heure de la régionalisation semble avoir sonné. Portrait de Pierre-Martin HUET (Michelin), le supply chain manager interviewéUn parcours de 20 ans dans la Supply Chain (SC) a fait de lui, dit-il, « un globe-trotteur de la SC ». Il a oeuvré aux USA, en Europe et en Asie essentiellement pour son entreprise actuelle. Après des débuts sur des fonctions opérationnelles puis de stratégie, Pierre-Martin Huet est, depuis 2018, directeur de la Supply Chain de Michelin et membre du comité de direction du groupe. P.M. Huet est, encore, membre du comité exécutif de France Supply Chain by Aslog. |
| Keywords: | Global supply chains vulnerability crisis regionalisation, Global supply chains, vulnerability, crisis, regionalisation CONTACT François Cassière, global supply chains vulnerability crisis regionalization, global supply chains, regionalization |
| Date: | 2023–10–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04903856 |
| By: | Klaus W. Deininger; Daniel Ayalew Ali; Eduard Bukin; Martyn, Andrii |
| Abstract: | The shift from administrative to market-based valuation of assets is a key part of Ukraine’s transition from a planned to a market economy. This shift will improve the functioning of financial markets and the ability of local governments to obtain revenue effectively for local service provision. This paper describes the rationale and evolution of Ukraine’s regulatory framework for market-based valuation. The analysis uses prices and publicly available parcel attributes for the nearly 200, 000 agricultural land sale transactions during 2021–24 to estimate a land price model that is then used to predict prices for the roughly 20 million hectares of commercial agricultural land in the country. Mean predicted prices that are 25 to 33 percent above current valuations hide vast interregional differences. Given their proximity to active conflict, predicted prices in the East and South are close to or even below the normative value, but they are 80 percent above it in the West of the country. A transition to market-based valuation is thus a precondition for fair and equitable taxation and incentives for productive land use. By aligning with globally accepted standards for banking regulation and improving credit access in areas where land values have increased, the transition could also affect the speed and quality of reconstruction. The paper discusses legislative steps to move in this direction. |
| Date: | 2024–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10998 |
| By: | Alexandru Cojocaru; Michael M. Lokshin; Ivan Torre |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates trends in willingness to pay higher taxes to combat climate change in countries of Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia between 2016 and 2023. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, it shows that despite increasing attention from policy makers, scientists, and the media, the average shares of respondents willing to pay to combat climate change declined over this period. The paper tests several hypotheses that could explain the deterioration of public readiness to support climate change policies. The most likely explanation is the growing politicization of the climate change agenda in the region. |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10914 |
| By: | Robayo, Monica; Rude, Britta Laurin |
| Abstract: | Addressing energy poverty has emerged as one of the main challenges for Bulgaria's poverty and social inclusion policy, particularly in the context of the European Green Deal and the current crisis in Ukraine. To tackle the adverse impacts of energy poverty effectively, a crucial initial step involves accurately defining and measuring this issue. Identifying households affected by energy poverty is essential for shaping and implementing targeted policies. This study explores various definitions of energy poverty within the Bulgarian context by (1) systematically reviewing current methodologies and measures employed in the EU context; (2) assessing the feasibility of implementing these measures in Bulgaria based on data availability, comparing the incidence of energy poverty using alternative measures, and presenting characteristics of energy poverty to inform potential policy instruments; and (3) providing policy recommendations for the measurement and monitoring of energy poverty. The way energy poverty is measured and the overlap with income poverty shape the types of policy solutions perceived to be possible and appropriate to address it. The evaluation supports the need to shift from single indicators to multidimensional approaches in measuring energy poverty. Additionally, enhancing the granularity, quality, and frequency of expenditure and income surveys can contribute to easier operationalization of these concepts and a better understanding of the demographics of energy poverty. The study proposes exploring alternative data generation methods, such as smart meters, further to enhance insights into the dynamics of energy poverty. |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10827 |
| By: | Alexandru Cojocaru; Michael M. Lokshin; Ivan Torre |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the expectations of economic mobility and support for tax-financed education reforms using data from the Life in Transition Survey, which covers 39 countries in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa. The analysis demonstrates that individuals who expect themselves or their children to be upwardly mobile are more likely to support tax-financed education reforms. This correlation is robust to different formulations of mobility expectations and persists over a decade, encompassing both stable and post-crisis economic environments. The relationship is partially mediated by beliefs about the fairness of economic opportunities in society and individuals’ readiness to embrace risks. |
| Date: | 2024–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10966 |