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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marcus How; Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Dzmitry Kruk; Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marko Sošić; Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Adam Żurawski |
| Abstract: | Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2025-2026, as lower inflation and interest rates boost real incomes and consumer spending. Investment should also strengthen as interest rates fall, new foreign investment arrives, and EU funds continue to be drawn down. However, the deepening crisis in German industry will continue to weigh on the export-oriented industry of CESEE. The region faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, and higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East. |
| Keywords: | CESEE Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, EU, euro area, convergence, business cycle, labour markets, unemployment, Russia-Ukraine war, Russia sanctions, commodity prices, inflation, price controls, trade disruptions, Ukrainian refugees, energy crisis, gas, electricity, monetary policy, fiscal policy, impact on Austria, near-shoring, automotive industry, droughts |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:october2024 |
| By: | Jang, Won-Joon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Park, Hea Ji (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine that broke out in 2022 and Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel the following year October 2023 are ushering in a New Cold War. As this era begins in earnest, the landscape of the global defense industry is undergoing significant changes. In particular, the Russia- Ukraine war has accelerated the global arms race and is transforming the global defense export market. Over the last five years, the global defense market has been dominated by the US, with an overwhelming share of the market. France sits in second place. Russian exports have collapsed and China’s have stagnated. South Korea and Turkiye are emerging as major new players in the global export market. Developed countries have been focusing on creating defense industry clusters centered on local governments for more than 100 years. Advanced economies have long seen the defense sector as a national strategic industry, both in terms of national security and job creation. South Korea has sought to follow this blueprint, and the central government has worked to establish a defense innovation cluster in conjunction with local governments since 2020. The administration of Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol promulgated a set of national policy tasks in 2022, one of which (No. 106) calls for the creation of a defense innovation ecosystem through the expansion of industrial clusters. Yet these clusters remain inadequate, and the defense innovation project for the most part unrealized. To foster defense industry clusters like those seen in the United States and France in the future, Korea needs a long-term strategy that links the government’s industrial policy with regional growth strategies that consistently promotes related projects. In this paper, we examine historical and current trends in defense clusters and investigate a handful of specific case studies. Based on our analysis we present a set of basic directions and development tasks for building defense industry innovation clusters in Korea, benchmarking the clusters in the US and elsewhere but recognizing the limitations of the Korean project. |
| Keywords: | defense industry; weapons manufacturing; defense exports; manufacturing industry; Russia-Ukraine war; Israel-Hamas war; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F13 F51 F52 O24 O25 |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_017 |
| By: | Andrii Shcherbyna; Vsevolod Nikolaiev |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the conclusions from the authors' search of the problems of multi-apartment building maintenance carried out by inefficient owners in Ukraine and other post-socialist countries after privatization.In the introduction the authors presented a comprehensive historical analysis of the housing sector of Ukraine and identified housing stock degradation trends. Than they analyzed experts' visions of the ways of further housing provision of citizens focusing on the property relations. Especial attention was drawn to the necessity of harmonizing the housing policy with the model of the welfare state which must be clearly defined taking into account the unity of two components in the concept of housing: the vital needs of a person, on the one hand, and the value of real estate as assets of the owner, on the other hand.The author’s methodology of the housing value and cost analysis used several modern economic concepts: imputed rent, life cycle costing, and sustainability. The subject of research was deepened by applying theoretical provisions about legal and economic ownership in relation to residential real estate, in particular, objects of joint ownership. The models of joint ownership of housing in different countries were classified in detail, and the specifics and shortcomings of the formation of the Ukrainian condominium model were clearly shown against this background.Then, multidirectional factors in housing ownership model were theoretically discovered. It was shown, on the one hand, the economic feasibility of joint home ownership, and, on the other hand, the complication of the management system when splitting: a single real estate object into a land plot, buildings, structures and apartments; a single owner into numerous co-owners of common property; a bungle of property rights into individual rights of subjects regarding various objects of residential real estate. In this way, the inevitability of problems in condominiums was theoretically justified.As a practical illustration of attempts to solve these problems, on the examples of different countries, the varieties of the classic dualistic condominium model were shown. Particular attention was paid to the uncertainty of physical objects of individual ownership and their value, which creates numerous problematic situations in management. It was shown that the high and unclearly defined cost of maintaining real estate in a condominium leads to the need for significant indirect state participation in the maintenance of private housing in apartment buildings, which contradicts to the principles of market economy.The inferences were made that, in contrast to the dualistic model of the condominium, the most developed countries returned to the concept of a single real estate object in the form of a unitary model admitting the economic nature of the processes of housing maintenance and operation. Thus, the conclusion about the optimal organizational form of joint home ownership - a housing company – was made.In the specific conditions of Ukraine (poor condition of buildings, insolvency of residents, mass destructions caused by the war, absence of convenient investment mechanism for restoration), the necessity of transforming the real property of inefficient owners in condominiums into corporate rights in a housing company with the possibility of attracting external investors to finance the renovation was substantiated. For this purpose, the principles of state regulation and statutory self-management of housing companies, which will be created based on the best practices of the latest corporate management, were proposed. As a generalization of the advantages of housing companies as a form of ownership and management of real property, the prospects for the use of digital technologies and tokenization in property partial transactions and in the management of housing stock were shown. |
| Keywords: | company; Condominium; housing; real property |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-017 |
| By: | Elvis K. Ofori (Taiyuan University of Technology, China); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul, Turkey); Bright A. Gyamfi (Ä°stanbul Ticaret University, Turkey); Ali E. Baba (Ural Federal University, Russia); Stephen T. Onifade (KTO Karatay University, Konya, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | The current study thus explored the impact of technological innovation and trade openness on clean energy while accounting for economic growth, access to electricity, pollution, industrial restructuring, and urbanization using data from 1990 to 2020 for both the MINT and BRICS economies. A series of test were performed for a robust analysis using second generation econometrics approaches before proceeding to investigate the long-run linkages between renewable energy and the duo of innovation and trade using the Prais-Winsten regression model with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) while the Driscoll-Kraay standard errors test was applied for robustness checks. The results, firstly confirm the presence of heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and cointegration among the selected variables. Secondly, technological innovation as a renewable energy determinant demonstrated negative elasticities in both BRICS countries and the full sample, but a positive elasticity in the MINT countries. Thirdly, concerning trade liberalisation, negative elasticities were obtained for the full sample and MINT countries, while the elasticities were positive for the BRICS bloc. Fourthly, the roles of economic growth and environmental pollution reveal a negative impact on renewable energy consumption for all samples while urbanisation and industrial restructuring promote renewable energy developments only in the BRICS bloc. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, trade liberalization, technological innovation, Prais-Winsten regression |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:24/022 |
| By: | Youngho Chang (Singapore University of Social Sciences, SG); Ridwan D. Rusli (Technische Hochschule Köln, DE); Jackson The (Nanyang Technological University, SG) |
| Abstract: | The natural gas supply disruptions and European energy crisis following the Ukraine-Russia war and the West’s economic sanctions made energy security a top priority issue for the German government. We use the 4A framework of energy security to analyze Germany’s energy transition (“Energiewende”) over the last 20 years. While the acceptance of climate change policies is very high among its society and voters, affordability to energy consumers and availability of energy resources have steadily decreased in recent years. High feed-in tariffs and fuel taxes force German households to pay the highest electricity tariffs and among the highest fuel prices worldwide. More of the country’s fiscal capacity is required to support energy-intensive industries and fund energy subsidies. Exit from nuclear and coal electricity production necessitates increasing natural gas imports, requiring new LNG terminals, extensive collaboration with European neighbors and partially undermining the environmental benefits of the coal exit. Moreover, growth in renewables capacity has slowed down, hampered in part by local public resistance and increasing bureaucratic hurdles. The technological leadership of the country’s multinationals and SMEs has been challenged by increasingly sophisticated and efficient competitors, for example from China. To ensure Germany’s energy security the country must accelerate domestic renewables capacity and infrastructure, expand European gasand power interconnector investments and diversify its natural gas supply options. |
| Keywords: | Energy transition; Energy security; 4-A framework; Energiewende; Power interconnector investments; Diversification. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:24-09 |