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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Hurskainen, Henna |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the development of Chinese exports to Central Asian countries after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The analysis, which relies on export data from China to Asian countries at a general product level, shows that China's exports to Central Asia have significantly increased since the start of the war. In particular, exports to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan have increased significantly. The analysis focuses on exports in Harmonized System (HS) categories 84, 85, 87, and 90. Many of the products sanctioned by the West in trade with Russia belong to these categories, but the categories also include many non-sanctioned products. Although the value of China's exports to Central Asia is still smaller than direct trade with Russia, China's exports - especially to Kyrgyzstan - have seen dramatic increases in the HS 84, 85, 87, and 90 categories. Along with the export growth from China to Central Asia, exports in these categories from Central Asia to Russia have also increased significantly. |
| Keywords: | China, Central Asia, Russia, exports |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:303041 |
| By: | Munroe, Ellen; Nosach, Anastasiia; Pedrozo, Moisés; Guarnieri, Eleonora; Riaño, Juan Felipe; Tur-Prats, Ana; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe |
| Abstract: | This article reviews the literature on the multifaceted consequences of historical conflict. We revisit three key topics, which are especially relevant for the current Ukrainian context. (1) The negative long-term impact of bombing campaigns and political repression against civilians. (2) The interplay between forced migration, refugees and war. (3) The role of gender and war, with a special focus on sex ratios and conflict-related sexual violence. We conclude with an empirical investigation of the Russian war against Ukraine, including aforementioned historical determinants such as ethnic populations, historical political repression and voting outcomes. |
| Keywords: | conflict; bombing; political repression; forced migration; gender; sexual violence; Ukraine |
| JEL: | D74 N10 O10 |
| Date: | 2023–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123566 |
| By: | Sinara Gharibyan |
| Abstract: | Is family or collective remembrance of the distant past more powerful in shaping current behavior? To answer this question, I link two historical episodes from Armenian history separated by a century. During both World War I (WWI) and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Russia was anticipated to provide military support to Armenia, its ally, but failed to do so. I demonstrate that the memories of the first Russian betrayal were activated after the second war. I identify family memory of the first betrayal using distinct West Armenian (Ottoman Armenian) surnames and proxy collective memory through locations renamed to commemorate lost Armenian localities during WWI. The difference-in-differences (DiD) approach shows that both family and collective remembrance negatively affect pro-Russian parties’ vote share, with all the conventional assumptions of DiD verified. Family remembrance influences behavior through traumatic recall, whereas collective remembrance operates via social capital. |
| Keywords: | Collective memory, Family remembrance, Voting, Social capital |
| JEL: | D7 J15 N44 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp787 |
| By: | Margarita Pavlova |
| Abstract: | In 2014, Russia imposed an import embargo on selected goods, effectively reducing trade flows and decreasing import competition across several industries. In this paper, I analyze the effect of this decrease in product market competition on the gender pay gap in Russia. This research complements the body of evidence which implies that increases in product market competition lead to lower gender pay gaps. The empirical analysis relates 2011-2019 industry-specific gender wage gaps estimated from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to the industry-level evolution of import penetration. The results show that a 10 percentage point reduction in import competition leads to an increase of about 4 percentage point in gender pay gap. This increase is smaller in magnitude than the effect found in the US but larger than that observed in some Eastern European countries. This phenomenon partly corresponds to an exacerbation of the gender employment gap driven primarily by high-skilled women leaving industries where import shares, and consequently competition, declined. |
| Keywords: | Gender Pay Gap, Product Market Competition, Russia, Sanctions |
| JEL: | J71 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp788 |
| By: | Ruchir Agarwal (Harvard Kennedy School); Adnan Mazarei (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Egypt narrowly averted a full-blown economic crisis in early 2024 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others gave Egypt a financial lifeline to curb its losses of foreign exchange reserves. This Policy Brief traces the origins and developments of the current crisis, and the country's history of repeated balance of payments crises. The 2023-24 crisis is one of eight such events in Egypt since 1952, driven by governance and policy deficiencies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated Egypt's problems. Egypt's strategic importance in the Middle East, underscored by the Gaza conflict, has ensured continued international financial support, allowing Egypt to bet on its "too strategic to fail" position and avoid reforms. Entrenched military dominance and cronyism have obstructed necessary economic reforms. The authors conclude that Egypt needs to address these challenges and undertake major reforms to break free from its recurring cycle of crises and stop relying on international bailouts. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb24-6 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick & University of Bonn); Christina Palmou (Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK); Jakob Schneebacher (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), UK & King’s College London) |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use k-means clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | Energy price shock, firm dynamics, climate change, high-dimensional analysis |
| JEL: | D22 D24 H23 L11 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:337 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Since February 2022, two major geopolitical crises have shaken the world. First, Russia attacked Ukrainian territory as part of a "special military operation" to demilitarize it and defend Russian-speaking regions. In turn, in October 2023, the Middle East has experienced a new dramatic episode in its history, with an Israeli-Palestinian war in the Gaza Strip. In both cases, the violent fighting is causing humanitarian crises. While this is an essential issue, it should not conceal the reality of major environmental crises. |
| Keywords: | Armed conflicts, Biodiversity, Ecocide, Environmental impact, Pollution |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04696550 |
| By: | T. Krüger; S. Hoffmann; I. Nibat; R. Mai; O. Trendel; H. Görg; W. Lasarov (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | In times of uncertainty, the study of consumer animosity and how it affects anti-consumption behavior becomes more important for both academics and practitioners. This study focuses on the social nature of boycotts and contributes to the literature by analyzing the influence of normative components. The paper introduces and empirically validates the concept of social animosity as a moderator of animosity's negative effect on product judg-ments and boycotts. The cross-country study uses data from six countries to measure animos-ity effects on two target countries: Russia and the U.S. Results confirm that consumers' so-cial animosity influences how animosity shapes their boycott intentions. |
| Keywords: | consumer animosity, boycott, anti-consumption, social animosity, ethnocentrism |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680681 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Since 2016, Azerbaijan has been hosting the Formula 1 Grand Prix. Due to COVID-19, the race was not held in 2020 and was conducted without spectators in 2021. The initial contract for the event was supposed to end in 2020, but it was extended for another three years. In 2023, Azerbaijan secured the continuation of its hosting rights until at least 20261. Apart from Formula 1, the country has hosted several other prestigious international events, including the Eurovision Song Contest in 2012, the first European Olympic Games in 2015, the 4th Islamic Solidarity Games in 2017, and the European Youth Olympic Festival in 2019. In 2024, Azerbaijan will host COP29, the most significant event in its history since independence, further adding to its diverse event portfolio. Despite some questions surrounding Baku's role as a host for Formula 1 compared to other international sports events, the Azerbaijani government has regularly organized the race for the past seven years and has yet to address these questions. The 2024 Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix is scheduled to take place again in Baku from September 13 to 15. In this paper, we examine the myths and realities regarding the economic impact of Formula 1 races. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:303482 |