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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2024‒04‒15
eight papers chosen by |
| By: | Արեստակես Սիմավորյան (Noravank Foundation - Noravank Scientific Educational Foundation) |
| Abstract: | After the collapse of the USSR, Turkey not only established ties with the Turkic-speaking republics of the former Soviet Union, but also developed relations with the Turkic-speaking regions of the Russian Federation at various levels. In the article, we will look at what policies Ankara has been implementing in recent years with federal states that have predominantly Turkic-speaking population such as Boshkortostan (Bashkiria), Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Yakutia, Khakassia, and Tuva. |
| Abstract: | ԽՍՀՄ փլուզումից հետո Թուրքիան ոչ միայն կապեր հաստատեց նախկին խորհրդային թյուրքախոս հանրապետությունների հետ, այլև տարբեր մակարդակներում զարգացրեց հարաբերությունները ՌԴ-ի թյուրքախոս շրջանների հետ։ Հոդվածում կանդրադառնանք, թե վերջին տարիներին Անկարան ինչպիսի քաղաքականություն է իրականացնում գլխավորապես թյուրքալեզու բնակչություն ունեցող դաշնային այնպիսի սուբյեկտների հետ, ինչպիսիք են՝ Բաշկորտոստանը (Բաշկիրիա), Թաթարստանը, Չուվաշիան, Յակուտիան, Խակասիան, Տուվան։ |
| Keywords: | Թուրքիայի Հանրապետություն, Ռուսաստան, թյուրքեր, թյուրքական աշխարհ, քաղաքականություն, իսլամ, Խակասիա, Տուվա, Յակուտիա, Թաթարստան, Բաշկորտստան, Չուվաշիա |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04486547&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Two years of Russia’s war in Ukraine have taken an enormous humanitarian and economic toll. Skillful policymaking supported by external financing has helped maintain macroeconomic stability, and the authorities have advanced important structural reforms. Households and business have continued adjusting to wartime conditions, leading to growth and inflation outturns in 2023 that were better than expected at the Second Review. The decision to open EU accession negotiations and approval of the €50 billion Ukraine Facility are positive developments. However, headwinds include discussions on a new round of mobilization and delayed approval of committed external support, which are both weighing down sentiment. |
| Date: | 2024–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/078&r=cis |
| By: | Fischer, Sabine |
| Abstract: | Die "Präsidentschaftswahl" 2024 ist so stark manipuliert wie keine andere Wahl in der postsowjetischen Geschichte Russlands. Der politische Kontext ist diktatorisch, die Usurpation der Macht durch das Regime umfassend. Es herrscht Kriegszensur. Politischer Wettbewerb wird nicht einmal simuliert. Der Tod Alexej Nawalnys hat die Atmosphäre der Angst, in der die Abstimmung stattfindet, verstärkt. Die "Wahl" ist ein autoritäres Plebiszit. Dennoch zeigten sich im Vorfeld regime- und kriegskritische Regungen in der Bevölkerung. Deutschland und Europa sollten klarstellen, dass diese Wahl nicht demokratisch ist und keine Legitimität besitzt. Wichtiger ist jedoch, den Kontakt zu kriegskritischen Menschen in Russland zu halten. |
| Keywords: | Russland, Putin, Präsidentschaftswahl, autoritäres Plebiszit, Ukraine-Krieg |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:284730&r=cis |
| By: | Pablo Burriel (Banco de España); Mar Delgado-Téllez (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK); Camila Figueroa (AFI); Iván Kataryniuk (Banco de España); Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel approach to estimating the contribution of macroeconomic factors to sovereign spreads in the euro area, defined as the spread level consistent with the country’s prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Despite the wealth of papers estimating sovereign spreads, model-dependency and lack of robustness remain key considerations. Accordingly, we propose a “thick modeling” empirical framework, based on the estimation of a wide range of models. We focus on 10-year sovereign bond yields for nine euro area countries, using a sample that covers the period January 2000 to December 2023. Our results show that observed spreads behave in line with macro-financial determinants in “normal” times. Macroeconomic determinants are also able to account for a significant fraction of the observed sovereign spread dynamics in most episodes of financial turbulence, such as the pandemic and the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, we find evidence of some deviations of sovereign spreads from their estimated values during the 2010-2012 euro area sovereign debt crisis. In this period, macroeconomic indicators are able to explain at most 26% of the observed peaks in spreads among non-core countries. |
| Keywords: | sovereign bond spreads, euro area, macroeconomic fundamentals |
| JEL: | E44 O52 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2408&r=cis |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Vos, Rob; Kim, Soonho; Park, Beyeong; Zaki, Sediqa; Mamboundou, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available. The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience. |
| Keywords: | staple foods; food prices; Ukraine; less favoured areas; vulnerability; food security; imports; price volatility |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2243&r=cis |
| By: | Irène Mestre (InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes); Sabrina Dermine-Brullot (InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, Chaire de recherche Transitions des Territoires Agricoles - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes); Pierre Guillemin (ASTER Mirecourt - Agro-Systèmes Territoires Ressources Mirecourt - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, ESO - Espaces et Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Pauline Marty (InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, Chaire de recherche Transitions des Territoires Agricoles - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes); Emma Teillet (InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, Chaire de recherche Transitions des Territoires Agricoles - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes); Céline Schott (ASTER Mirecourt - Agro-Systèmes Territoires Ressources Mirecourt - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The sanitary measures induced by Covid-19 have caused an unprecedented shock to food demand by profoundly affecting consumption patterns, which recent events (the crisis in Ukraine) have put back at the center of the issues of autonomy, resilience, and vulnerability of agricultural and food systems. Our research mobilizes four contrasting case studies in the Grand Est region to understand how agricultural and food systems have reacted to Covid-19, and its possible implications in the face of other disruptions. In this paper, we propose an analytical framework to highlight the resilience characteristics of the agricultural and food systems in the Grand Est. More specifically, we examine the role of local authorities in proximity and long distance circuits and their effects on the resilience of the agricultural and food systems. |
| Abstract: | Les mesures sanitaires induites par la Covid-19 ont provoqué un choc sans précédent sur la demande alimentaire en affectant profondément les modes de consommation, que l'actualité récente (crise en Ukraine) replace au centre des enjeux d'autonomie, de résilience, et de vulnérabilité des systèmes agricoles et alimentaires (SAA). Notre recherche mobilise quatre cas d'étude contrastés en Grand Est pour comprendre comment les SAA ont réagi face à la Covid-19, et ses possibles implications face à d'autres perturbations. Dans cet article, nous proposons une grille d'analyse permettant de mettre en évidence les caractéristiques de résilience du SAA en GrandEst. Plus précisément, nous interrogeons le rôle des collectivités territoriales dans les circuits de proximité et circuits longs et leurs effets sur la résilience des SAA. |
| Keywords: | Agri-food system, Health crisis, Public actor, Resilience, Adaptation, Collectivités territoriales, Crise sanitaire, Résilience, Système agrialimentaire |
| Date: | 2022–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04487277&r=cis |
| By: | Fredj Jawadi (LUMEN - Lille University Management Lab - ULR 4999 - Université de Lille); Philippe Rozin; David Bourghelle |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the dynamics of CO2 emissions over the last decade for a large group of 25 European countries, an issue that is at the center of the ecological transition project involving various commitments (COP21, COP26, G20 meetings, etc.). To this end, our model measures the repercussions of energy price shocks (oil, gas, coal) for carbon emissions, as well as changes in industrial production and sustainable development in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. Using annual data for 23 EU countries, together with Russia and the UK, our findings show that CO2 emissions reacted significantly to oil and coal price shocks and vary with industrial production cycles. We quantified this reaction while computing the related elasticities. Further, while a significant reduction in CO2 emissions was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the stepping up of investment in sustainable development and renewable energy consumption also had a negative impact on CO2 emissions. This suggests that the key driver to reducing the risk of climate change and lowering high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions involves significant commitment to sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions COVID-19 Fossil energy Renewable energy Panel data |
| Date: | 2022–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04412667&r=cis |
| By: | Salem, Leila Ben (University of Sousse); Zayati, Montassar (University of Sousse); Nouira, Ridha (University of Sousse); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the co-movements of oil prices and the exchange rates of 10 top oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Firstly, we estimated the total static spillover index based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Secondly, we adopted the recent DCC-GARCH-CONNECTEDNESS approach proposed by Gabauer (2020) to conduct a time-varying analysis that investigates the directionally dynamic connectedness among WTI and Shanghai crude oil futures and currency markets. We explored contagion spillover volatility by focusing on a sample of major oil-exporting and oil-importing countries using daily data from 4 March 2018 to 25 August 2023. We analysed this relationship during four phases: the entire sample; before COVID-19; during COVID-19; and during the Russian–Ukrainian war. Our results confirm the persistence of volatility for the series studied, thereby justifying the use of the dynamic connectedness approach. Our findings also reveal strong evidence of volatility transmission between oil prices and exchange-rate markets. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war have altered this link. The connectedness between the two markets (petrol and exchange) was stronger at the beginning of the crisis period and then gradually depreciated in value over time. Our findings reveal that exchange rates for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries are more sensitive to oil price shocks during crises than in normal periods. This suggests that volatility contagion between these two markets continues to exist, thus emphasising the role of oil price shocks as net transmitters across the network during extreme scenarios. |
| Keywords: | DCC-GARCH-Connectedness, exchange rates, WTI, Shanghai futures, COVID-19, Russian–Ukrainian war |
| JEL: | C5 Q4 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16832&r=cis |