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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2023‒10‒23
seventeen papers chosen by |
| By: | Shant Arzoumanian |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia’s output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market. |
| Keywords: | Spillovers; international business cycles; trade; remittances; FDI; market confidence; emerging markets |
| Date: | 2023–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/185&r=cis |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marcus How; Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Adam Żurawski |
| Abstract: | The economy of the CESEE region continues to outperform the EU average, but there are notable differences between the various sub-regions. The EU-CEE countries performed worse than expected, due to the recession in Germany, while the Western Balkan countries performed better than expected, thanks to tourism, remittances and FDI. And the CIS countries and Ukraine also did better than anticipated, as they adapted to the new reality. Inflation is proving far more persistent than previously imagined; it is driven not just by global energy prices, but also by company profits, price rises in other sectors and, most recently, higher wages. The price increases are having a serious adverse effect on people’s living standards and poverty, and some indicators have worsened dramatically. Growth in 2024 and 2025 will be lower than previously expected, on account of the global slowdown, the weak EU economy, the more persistent inflation, the tighter monetary conditions and less-supportive fiscal policy. Inflation will also be higher and will not return to 2% any time soon, as its dynamics have become far more complex and are no longer driven just by higher global energy. |
| Keywords: | CESEE, Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, Visegrád group, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, euro area, EU, convergence, Russia-Ukraine war, Russia sanctions, commodity prices, inflation, energy crisis, gas, renewable energy, electricity, monetary and fiscal policy, EU funds, purchasing power, poverty, real wages, remittances, FDI, imports, external debt, interest rates, banking sector, credit, impact on Austria, macroeconomic forecasting |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2023&r=cis |
| By: | Hung Xuan Do; Rabindra Nepal; Son Duy Pham; Tooraj Jamasb |
| Abstract: | Despite the massive impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war on the European energy market, little is known about their effects on the transmission of risks between member states’ electricity markets and key electricity sources. In this paper, we first employ the quantile connectedness approach to quantify the return connectedness between eleven European electricity markets, natural gas, and carbon market, then examine the impacts of the two crises on the interconnectedness. We find a significant return interconnectedness of the system, mainly driven by the spillover effects among European electricity markets. An investigation of the connectedness across quantiles shows that the spillover effects are much stronger at the tails of conditional distribution and the natural gas and carbon markets are net recipients of return shocks across quantiles. More importantly, our results reveal opposite effects of the two crises on interconnectedness. While the COVID-19 pandemic reduces the interconnectedness, the Russia-Ukraine war intensifies the return shock transmission. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas, European Emission Allowance, Electricity markets, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine war, Quantile connectedness |
| JEL: | D4 L94 Q43 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-46&r=cis |
| By: | Abroskin, Alexander (Аброскин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Abroskina, Natalia (Аброскина, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The subject area of the research is issues related to improving the effectiveness of the System of Government Social Assistance on the basis of the Social Contract (GSA SC). The purpose of the research is to construct proposals for development of the GSA SC based on its transformation into an activation-type program with a dominance of activities aimed at stimulating the participation of low-income households in labor activity. The relevance of the research topic is determined by the need to improve the effectiveness of the current system of the Social Contracts in the Russian Federation, improve the methodology used to measure its effectiveness and increase the informativeness of the estimates being developed. The scientific novelty of the research connects with the new approaches developed within the research frameworks to measure the GSA SC economic effects at the households sector level. The methodology and methodological approaches implemented within the research framework were based on taking into account the impact of the GSA SC activities on the development of the household sector economy, in which dynamics measuring a system of indicators developed in the national accounting statistics is used. The main results of the research include: assessments of the GSA SC system current state and the problems of its insufficient effectiveness identified in the analysis; proposals for GSA SC development as an activation type program; the proposed approaches to the construction of estimates for the impact of GSA SC activation version on the basic indicators of the household sector; estimates of GSA SC economic effects. Conclusions and recommendations. In its current form GSA SC only in certain areas is focused on achieving the main goals of the social contract systems - getting out of poverty and forming permanent sources of income. In a number of areas, GSA SC duplicates the activities provided within the other programs of social assistance to the population. Prospects for improving the GSA SC efficiency in the Russian Federation are associated with its transformation into an activation-type program with economic effects provided when the poor are included in production activities. |
| Keywords: | activating measures, monetary income, households, individual entrepreneurship, methodological framework, social contract, poverty level, efficiency |
| JEL: | I38 |
| Date: | 2022–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220161&r=cis |
| By: | Matevosova Anastasia (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | In 2022, Russian economy faced unprecedented sanctions pressure from the collective West. Against this background, the government and the Central Bank need to constantly monitor the economic situation in the Russian Federation in order to take timely and effective measures. A high-frequency indicator of inflation expectations based on big data can help in the solution of this problem. The article presents significant shortcomings leading to the inapplicability of existing common approaches to the assessment of inflation expectations under sanctions. Based on the constructed high-frequency indicators of inflation expectations, contribution of sanctions to the formation of inflation expectations and sanctions concerns, the impact of sanctions on the inflation expectations of Russian population is analyzed. The method of the assessment inflation expectations based on big data has confirmed its effectiveness in the conditions of sanctions. This method proved the impact of sanctions on the formation of inflation expectations of the Russian population. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, inflation expectations, high-frequency indicator, inflation |
| JEL: | F51 E31 D84 C55 C82 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0057&r=cis |
| By: | Chernyakova, Elena (Чернякова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Korolev, Georgy (Королев, Георгий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yastrebova, Elena (Ястребова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | By the "Main Directions of the Budget, Tax, and Customs Tariff Policy for 2021 and the planning period of 2022 and 2023", voluntary registration for foreign suppliers using the VAT office when carrying out any type of activity (sales to Russian buyers) is stated as part of the topical issues of taxation in the future. This issue was proposed by the business community and should be considered by the Government of the Russian Federation soon. In Appendix 2 (Tax Policy Measures by Types of Taxes) of the “Main Directions of the Budgetary, Tax, and Customs Tariff Policy for 2022 and the Planning Period of 2023 and 2024”, paragraph 5 of the subsection “Value Added Tax” is also devoted to the issue of changing the procedure for determining places of sale of works (services) for VAT purposes and voluntary registration for foreign suppliers using a VAT office, which states that a foreign supplier of works (services) will be able to pay VAT independently in the event of voluntary tax registration in the Russian Federation Federation. Thus, the relevance of the research topic was indicated in the Main Directions for two years in a row, in 2021 and 2022. The geopolitical changes taking place today only increase the relevance of this study, the purpose of which is to free from the formal barriers of the system of registration for VAT purposes of foreign companies providing electronic services to recipients in Russia, to attract as many foreign companies to taxation in the Russian Federation. The implementation of the results of this work can make the conditions for the work of foreign companies in Russia more attractive. The main tasks to be solved within the framework of the study are: to analyze the foreign experience of paying VAT by foreign companies with an emphasis on the voluntariness of registration and online interaction with tax authorities and; to analyze the current tax legislation of Russia in terms of paying VAT by foreign companies, including the issue of applying the institution of tax agents; prepare proposals for improving the tax legislation in Russia, including amendments to certain articles of Chapter 21 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is the procedure for indirect taxation of foreign companies in Russia using the VAT office. The method or methodology of research is a combination of general scientific and special methods of cognition, namely, system analysis, the method of analogy, the general logical method of generalization, comparative legal, structural, and functional analysis. The sources of information are research materials of Russian and foreign scientists, legislative bases, websites of tax authorities of the countries of the world, mass media, and other sources. The main applied result of the research is the answer to the question of the advisability or not of the introduction of voluntary registration of foreign suppliers using the VAT office in the implementation of activities in Russia (sales to Russian buyers), which is specified in the "Guidelines for the budget, tax, and customs tariff policy for 2021 and the planning period of 2022 and 2023" (Guidelines). In addition to the above main applied result, the applied results of the study will be proposals for improving the payment of VAT in Russia by foreign companies. The scientific novelty of the main applied result is due to the novelty of the question itself about the advisability of introducing voluntary registration within the framework of the Guidelines. The scientific novelty of other applied results is due to the analysis of the current tax legislation of Russia, and foreign experience, on the topic of the study for 2021, and 2022, initiatives in 2023. As a result of the analysis of foreign experience, the following conclusions were drawn in the world, voluntary registration for the purpose of paying VAT of foreign suppliers, and not always through personal accounts or special services similar to the VAT office on the websites of tax services. Voluntary registration is not limited to e-services, but also, for example, includes low-value goods. As a recommendation, it seems appropriate to allow voluntary registration for VAT purposes for foreign companies in Russia. In the future, this work can become a starting point for studying the issues of changing approaches to taxation, and administration of income of foreign companies in Russia, including direct taxation. |
| Keywords: | VAT office, foreign electronic services, tax agent, tax representative, VAT, tax on goods and services, foreign experience, voluntary registration, EAEU taxes |
| Date: | 2022–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220203&r=cis |
| By: | Barbashova, Natalia (Барбашова, Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Deryugin, Alexander (Дерюгин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Komarnitskaya, Anna (Комарницкая, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The research analyzes the practice of anticrisis support of the subnational level in foreign countries and Russia. The influence of the anticrisis budget policy of the federal center on the balance and sustainability of regional budgets in Russia is assessed. The features of the effectiveness of intergovernmental transfers and budget loans to sub-federal budgets are revealed. It is recommended to take into account the results obtained in the anticrisis support of the regions, as well as to introduce mechanisms that increase the flexibility of federal budget rules to the parameters of subnational finances. |
| Keywords: | ANTICRISIS POLICY, GOVERNMENT REGULATION MEASURES, SUPPORT OF SUBNATIONAL BUDGETS, EASING OF FISCAL RULES, REGIONAL BUDGET, LOCAL BUDGET, BUDGET BALANCE, BUDGET CREDITS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL TRANSFERS |
| JEL: | H12 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220206&r=cis |
| By: | Mr. Anil Ari; Philipp Engler; Gloria Li; Manasa Patnam; Ms. Laura Valderrama |
| Abstract: | The surge in energy prices due to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine significantly increased costs for European firms, prompting governments to introduce a range of support schemes. Although energy prices had eased by early 2023, uncertainty around prices remains unusually large. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the case for government intervention and identifies best practices with a view to improving the design of existing energy support schemes, facilitating exit from those schemes, and preparing policymakers for a downside scenario in which energy prices flare up again. The paper argues that support should be limited in size, strictly temporary in nature, narrowly targeted, and accompanied by strong safeguards and conditionality, while preserving price signals as much as possible to encourage energy conservation. Finally, the paper reviews recent support schemes introduced by European governments in light of the identified best practice considerations. |
| Keywords: | Energy prices; energy subsidies; financial support; price caps; energy crisis; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine |
| Date: | 2023–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/197&r=cis |
| By: | Gabueva, Larisa (Габуева, Лариса) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the study is to substantiate the role, place and mechanisms of modern economic methods of managing the health of the Russian population for increasing the effectiveness of the use of planned and mobilization finances allocated to priority national goals and tactical tasks in the field of healthcare. Research methods and methodology: management theory, concepts of social sciences, public health methodology, methods of medical statistics, economic and mathematical modeling of social processes, risk management tools, evaluation of the effectiveness of development projects, quality management standards. Research results can be used for: − Medical and demographic prognostic examination of the factors of formation of a healthy lifestyle of the older generation of Russia, − Drawing up an interdepartmental information regulation for the exchange of information on the medical and social security of elderly citizens, − Qualitative improvement of the standards of preventive and rehabilitation work with citizens of older age and gender groups, − Clarifications of medium-term programs of measures for the medical examination of pensioners. − The practical significance of the study is due to: − Development of practical tools for budgeting health facilities according to national health priorities (oncological care, cardiovascular diseases, primary health care with preventive measures, etc.) at the expense of budgets and CHI. Systematization of the competencies of federal government bodies that have administrative regulations (procedures, rules) for regulating health measures in the departmental management system of social processes of development of society, and also regional public health management bodies, including the work of regional project offices. |
| Date: | 2021–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220199&r=cis |
| By: | Putintseva, Anna (Путинцева, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In the age of digital transformation, there is an increasing discussion about human resource shortages. In particular, IT professionals, in general, specialists in science and technology (STEM - Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics). One of the decisive factors in attracting and retaining highly qualified employees is the level of remuneration, so it is important to understand what the determinants of its level in Russia are. Thus, our research answers the question: what factors influence the compensation of STEM professionals in Russia? The influence of human capital (special experience and availability of higher education) and institutional factors (organization size, economic sector, organization profile) were considered. The data of the National Research University Higher School of Economics Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health for 2010-2020 were used for the analysis. The results show that the level of financial compensation increases when a STEM specialist has higher education, works in a large and commercial organization. Work experience has no effect on compensation. The profile of the organization (technical or not) also did not show an unambiguous result in this study. |
| Keywords: | STEM, highly skilled workforce, remuneration, human capital factors, institutional factors |
| JEL: | J31 |
| Date: | 2022–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220162&r=cis |
| By: | Perevyshin, Yury (Перевышин, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Drobyshevsky, Sergey (Дробышевский, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the property of the core inflation indicator to predict future values of headline inflation, which is a critical task in preparing a medium-term inflation forecast to support decision-making on monetary policy. To test this property (on the example of the core inflation by Rosstat and inflation excluding fruits and vegetables, gasoline and housing and communal services), two approaches were applied. The first approach projected headline inflation based on actual core inflation and the historical relationship between these indicators, and then projected headline inflation based on actual headline inflation. The accuracy of the two headline inflation forecasts was then compared. As a result, it turned out that core inflation indicators, starting from 2011, better predict headline inflation than current headline inflation values over a horizon of up to a year. The second approach answer the question of whether the accuracy of the headline inflation forecast is improved if the core inflation forecast is used instead. To do this, within a certain class of models, a core inflation forecast was built, which was used as a headline inflation forecast, then its accuracy was compared with a forecast based on the same class of models estimated for headline inflation. As a result, it turned out that in the framework of VAR, MA(1) and ARIMA models, the use of a core inflation forecast instead of a headline inflation forecast increases the accuracy. We estimate VAR model and decompose core inflation by factors (output gap, ruble exchange rate, and monetary policy rate). It helps us to estimate the magnitude of the price shock in the 1st quarter of 2022 in Russian economy, which amounted to 6.2 p.p. Our inflation forecast based on the VAR model assumes its acceleration from 1.6% q/q SAAR in the 4th quarter of 2022 to 4.1% in the 1st quarter and 6.0% in the 2nd quarter of 2023, then it followed by stabilization at 7% QoQ SAAR by the end of 2023. |
| Keywords: | inflation forecasting, inflation, monetary policy, short-term forecasting, core inflation, vector autoregression model, inflation decomposition, price shock |
| JEL: | E31 E37 C53 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220204&r=cis |
| By: | Manon François (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Carlos Oliveira; Bluebery Planterose (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Gabriel Zucman (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory, UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California) |
| Abstract: | This note presents a new way to tax excess profits. We propose to tax the rise in the stock market capitalization of companies that benefit from extraordinary circumstances, such as energy firms following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Targeting the rise in stock market capitalization (which is easily observable) makes the tax much harder to avoid than standard excess profit taxes, and allows to capture rents irrespective of where multinational companies book their profits. We apply this proposal to energy companies that are headquartered or have sales in the European Union. We estimate that taxing the January 2022 to September 2022 valuation gains of energy firms at a rate of 33% would generate around €65 billion in revenue (0.3% of GDP) for the European Union. We discuss implementation practicalities and compare our proposals to other plans made to tax excess profits. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04103941&r=cis |
| By: | Jochen Güntner; Michael Irlacher; Peter Öhlinger |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the European Union's debate on sanctioning crude oil imports from Russia, we estimate the elasticity of substitution between different crude oil types. Using European data on country-level crude oil imports by field of origin, we argue that crude oil is not a homogenous good and that the relevant substitutability for analyzing the impact of trade sanctions must account for the quality of different oil types in terms of their API gravity and sulfur content. Our results suggest that, by neglecting these differences in quality, standard estimates significantly underestimate the production disruptions in crude oil refining resulting from sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Crude Oil Trade, Elasticity of Substitution, Refinery Economics, Sanctions |
| JEL: | F14 F51 L71 Q37 Q41 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2023-11&r=cis |
| By: | Budraitskis, Ilya (Будрайтскис, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vanunts, Georgy (Ванунц, Георгий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yegorova, A. (Егорова, А.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zapolskaya, A. (Запольская, А.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yudin, Grigory (Юдин, Григорий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The subject of our research is the evolution of the concept of "freedom" in liberal political thought at the end of the 19th century – first half of the 20th century, as well as its influence on further academic discussions of "freedom" as a concept. Our main sources, therefore, are the texts by liberal, conservative as well as left-wing theorists of the period in question (Isaiah Berlin, Carl Schmitt, Edmund Burke, Max Weber, Joseph Schumpeter, Walter Benjamin) and their interconnections with the subsequent development of the liberal tradition (Jurgen Habermas, Hannah Arendt) as well as its critics (Giorgio Agamben, Judith Butler). The aim of the project was to confirm our basic hypothesis that the key transformation of the concept of "freedom" in political and social thought takes place at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries – this was the moment when liberal doctrines took shape, in which collective freedom gave way to individual freedom. Thus, our project had three objectives: 1) to trace the transformation of the notion of freedom in the liberal tradition of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, 2) to identify lines of criticism of individual freedom in conservative and leftist thought of the early twentieth century, 3) to analyze the current crisis of liberalism related to the non-democratic basis of actual political representation and to show how the notion of freedom formed in early twentieth century liberal theory has affected the institutions of modern liberal democracy. The relevance of the research is determined by the deepening crisis of liberalism in our days and the pursuit of programmatic alternatives to liberal democratic institutions. Through an analysis based primarily on the "history of concepts" method, we have described the contradictions in liberal thought associated with the form of the democratic process and its elitist content. The scientific novelty of this study lies in the fact that, for the first time in domestic political theory, an attempt was made to examine the key category of "freedom" in the liberal tradition in a broad historical and theoretical context, which made it possible to identify its contemporary understanding. We conclude that this anti-democratic and anti-egalitarian element of the liberal tradition has common origins with the conservative critique of democracy of the early to mid-20th century. Since the Russian Federation's policy documents (in particular, the National Security Strategy) pay considerable attention to rethinking the relationship between individual freedoms and securing the collective freedom of the Russian people in the face of external challenges, the practical recommendation of the study is to further develop an original historical and theoretical concept of freedom that meets the contemporary conditions of our country. |
| Keywords: | democracy, conservatism, politics, freedom, republicanism, liberalism, neoliberalism, political theology, political subject, political sphere |
| JEL: | B10 B30 |
| Date: | 2021–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220195&r=cis |
| By: | Theresa Neef (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Gabriel Zucman (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Lucas Chancel (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Panayioti Nicolaides |
| Abstract: | This note provides data on wealth inequality in Russia and advocates for a European Asset Registry. Russia exhibits the highest wealth inequality in Europe. Further, Russia's wealthiest nationals conceal a large share of their wealth through tax havens. The current architecture of the global financial system impedes comprehensive knowledge on beneficial ownership across asset types and jurisdictions. Under the roof of a European Asset Registry, the already existing but currently dispersed information could be gathered. This would change the state of play, resulting in better-targeted sanctions and effective tools to curb money laundering, corruption and tax evasion. The European Union could have a pioneering role in taking the next step towards more financial transparency. |
| Date: | 2022–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04103916&r=cis |
| By: | Spiridonov, Vladimir (Спиридонов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Subject of study The subject of naive epistemology can be defined more narrowly: it studies naive ideas about the nature and nature of knowledge. Researchers in this field are also interested in how people receive and transmit knowledge, and under the influence of what factors this knowledge is transformed in the process of communication? Goal The main purpose of the study is to find answers to the following questions: how do modern educated adults describe the interaction of mind and body? Are they spontaneous empiricists or rationalists? How do they cope with the explanation of cognitive paradoxes? Relevance In the second half of the 20th century, disciplines such as naive psychology and theory of consciousness were born, which study beliefs, assumptions and hypotheses about the world in everyday life, their influence on behavior and the development of processes that cause these processes. Researchers in this field are also interested in how people receive and transmit knowledge, and under the influence of what factors this knowledge is transformed in the process of communication. Do people rely on induction and empirical evidence in favor of their ideas (naive empiricism), or deductively deduce knowledge from premises that they consider axioms (naive rationalism). Scientific novelty Over the past decade, due to the proliferation of studies using reaction time analysis, which allows us to study the functioning of intuitive theories, a lot of empirical evidence has accumulated indicating the stability of early intuitive theories. The white spot in such works remains precisely the stability of ideas during a specific study. As a rule, each stimulus that needs to be evaluated is presented only once, which complicates the possibility of checking how consistent the subjects are in their responses related to the same mental model. Methods It is planned to conduct a series of factorial experimental studies using special network services (such as Pavlovia). Results − Mental models explaining different options for acquiring knowledge about knowledge (i.e., theories of naive epistemology) are classified; − The analysis and systematization of existing experimental methods for studying mental models has been carried out; − A plan has been developed for an experimental method of analyzing mental models of naive epistemology based on the reaction time of the responses of the subjects. Conclusion The differences in reaction time for conflicting and congruent statements can be explained in different ways. One of the possibilities is related to the functioning of mental models. On the one hand, the elements of the semantic network are activated by the first response, which provides acceleration of «closer», but not "distant" elements of it. On the other hand, the differences in response time may be due to the activation of inhibitory processes in the situation of verification of conflicting statements. Although the result is quite expected, the mechanisms of such a phenomenon remain an urgent topic for further research. Recommendations The results of this research can be used in the interests of the Department of Science, High Technology and Education of the Government of the Russian Federation, as well as the Council for Science and Education under the President of the Russian Federation for • scientific and methodological support for changes in social sectors aimed at improving the effectiveness of education and science; • analysis of fundamental and long-term factors of trends in the formation of state policy in the field of scientific and innovative development; • qualitative improvement of education standards in the humanitarian sphere. Possible practical significance of research: analysis and prognostic examination of longterm factors and trends in the formation of state policy in the field of organization, development of education, public relations, as well as improvement of personnel policy. |
| Keywords: | Inference, naive epistemology, learning, naive psychology, cognitive psychology |
| JEL: | E70 |
| Date: | 2021–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220202&r=cis |
| By: | Boza, Sophia; Núñez-Mejía, Aracely; Mora, Marcos; Lopez, Dorotea |
| Abstract: | International competitiveness is "a measure of a country's advantage or disadvantage in selling its products in international markets" (OECD, 2014). The main objective of this research is to analyze the determinant factors of the international competitiveness of Spain (the world's leading exporter) and Chile (an emerging exporter) in the international market of extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO). The theoretical framework for the international competitiveness analysis is based on the well-known "Porter's diamond model, " which includes: 1. "factor conditions, " 2. "demand conditions, " 3. "related and supporting industries, " and 4. "strategy, structure, and rivalry, " as well as aspects related to "government" and "opportunity." The methodology used to determine the level of international competitiveness in the EVOO industry in the countries under study is mixed. The results of the International Market Share (IMS), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Trade Competitiveness (TC) indicators confirm Spain's leadership and Chile's emerging competitiveness in the EVOO market. However, both countries have stagnated in recent years. Possibly, Spain has reached a mature international competitiveness level, but Chile has not been able to boost EVOO production and exports. Subsequently, qualitative methods were applied to analyze the determinants of the levels of international competitiveness found in the previous step. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key actors involved in the production and internationalization of EVOO, mainly producers, cooperatives, exporters' associations, public officials, scholars, and experts. The results of the analysis of Porter's diamond model outline some similarities and considerable differences that could have an impact on the international competitiveness of EVOO in Spain and Chile: 1. Regarding the "factor conditions, " both countries have natural advantages that strongly favor olive production, the primary input for EVOO production. However, unlike Chile, Spain has achieved high availability and quality of production factors with acquired advantages, specifically, labor (in the field and technical level) and technology (machinery). This would seem to contribute not only to international competitiveness but also to resilience to the impact of climate change, for example, technological alternatives to the water crisis. 2. The national and international "demand conditions" for EVOO are very different in the analyzed countries. Spain has a millenary olive-growing tradition, which has managed to embed olive oil in the local gastronomic culture. The development of the local market has boosted the production and internationalization of Spanish olive oil. In contrast, Chile has not strengthened and expanded the local market, which is in line with the stagnation of olive oil exports. 3. The "related and supporting industries" seem to have developed alongside the EVOO industry in Spain. The fertilizer industry was the only concern raised by olive producers caused due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Although olive oil producers in Chile also expressed concerns about the world's supply of fertilizers, the packaging industry represents their biggest concern. In Chile, there are only two significant suppliers of glass containers, which prioritize other exporting sectors, such as wine. This concentration of a few packaging suppliers was a recurring concern among Chilean producers. 4. Regarding "firm strategy, structure, and rivalry, " it can be seen that the Spanish olive sector is mainly concentrated in cooperatives and mergers of cooperatives, being the medium and large companies a minority. This market structure seems to have positively impacted the sector's international competitiveness, given the ability to generate economies of scale, for example, around the oil press (almazara, in Spanish). In contrast, most olive oil producers in Chile are medium and large companies, while a minority are small producers. The fragmented and dispersed structure of olive oil producers in Chile seems to favor only individual and specific results without generating volume or sufficient international exposure, negatively influencing the international market share. The factors related to "government" include one of the major differentiators between the Spanish and Chilean EVOO industry. Spain provides conditional and unconditional subsidies for olive production, those established by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union, which are the most valued support by Spanish olive producers. On the other hand, Chile does not have specific subsidies to support the olive sector, which only benefits from horizontal public policies such as grant funds for the agricultural sector. Finally, the growing world demand for healthy foods and the rise in international prices of edible oils are part of the "opportunity" factor perceived by producers from Spain and Chile. Only the first is an opportunity that can be sustained over time and potentially exploited by both countries. The results of this study can be an essential input for the design of intervention policies in light of the current needs of the EVOO sector in Spain and Chile. In both cases, it is urgently required to promote efforts aimed at improving resilience to face the water crisis, as well as promote communication campaigns that expand knowledge and appraisal of the EVOO qualities in the national and international market. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae23:338543&r=cis |