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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2023‒03‒27
thirty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Zane Varpina (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Kata Fredheim (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | Russian invasion in Ukraine in 2022 has created the biggest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII. Close to 7 million people have left the country as of August 2022 and figures keep growing. Latvia has accommodated a mere 36 thousand of them, but it exemplifies other smaller countries in the refugee flows. Patterns and factors of asylee destination decisions for less popular destinations have not been explored making one wonder what makes refugees deviate from the mainstream migration flows. We explore why and how Ukrainian war-displaced people have chosen Latvia using the narratives of Ukrainian displaced people who arrived in Latvia in early stages of the conflict. Drawing on in-depth qualitative interviews with refugees in Latvia, we find that networks are the primary determinant of the choice to flee to Latvia. The closeness of kinship is not as important as the fact of having the contact as such, nor does it determine the level of support. Close or distant relatives and friends are the first instance to turn to for war-displaced civilians, while financial factors do not appear to be decisive. In the situation of acute displacement, the first asylee strategy is to seek support in kinship and other networks. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bic:opaper:17&r=cis |
| By: | Kaukin Andrey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The paper is structured as follows: the first section systematizes the results of academic literature, assessing the contribution of human capital to economic growth and aggregate productivity, reviews the key indicators of human capital traditionally used in the economic literature. The second section analyzes the dynamics and regional peculiarities of the main indicators of human capital in Russia, identifies key trends in the development of human capital, and makes cross-country comparisons. The third section presents the empirical strategy, the database used and the results of the assessment of the impact of human capital on productivity. At the end of the work, the main conclusions of the study and recommendations are presented. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, human capital, productivity |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2023-1256&r=cis |
| By: | Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kuznetsov Dmitry (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Loshchenkova Anna (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The development of non-commodity non-energy exports is one of the national goals reflected in the President’s Decrees in 2018 and 2020. It is assumed that national development institutions should play a key role in pursuing a consistent export promotion policy, including Russian Export Center JSC currently managed by VEB.RF. In Russia the increasing role of development institutions in facilitating the export activities of firms is due to unprecedented sanctions against Russian companies and sectors and the need to find new export directions in friendly countries and promote Russian goods in these markets. To a large extent, export support measures are aimed at increasing the involvement of small and medium-sized enterprises in export activities: out of 11, 3 thousand exporters supported in 2019, 80% are SMEs. In 2019 the total volume of supported exports by the REC amounted to about 19, 5 billion US dollars. The econometric analysis shows that export support measures are generally an effective tool for the development of Russian non-resource exports: companies which have received support from REC JSC export more and have a more diversified commodity and country export structure. The most effective measures are those related to credit and guarantee support and insurance, and virtually all types of support encourage companies to explore new markets. |
| Keywords: | Russian exports, sanctions |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2023-1253&r=cis |
| By: | Geghetsik Afunts; Misina Cato; Tobias Schmidt |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; natural experiment; |
| JEL: | D84 D12 E3 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp745&r=cis |
| By: | Schneider, Jonas; Horovitz, Liviu |
| Abstract: | Originally scheduled for 2020, the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) had to be deferred four times. It was not until August 2022 that the 191 NPT states finally met. At least since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, observers had expected that the delegates would be unable to agree on a Final Document. Surprisingly, differences over nuclear disarmament did not play a role in the failure of the conference, despite the growing polarization over this issue since the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) at the beginning of 2021. Russia alone was responsible for torpedoing the consensus. Conversely, all the non-nuclear NPT parties made major concessions in a bid to prevent the conference from failing. This shows that in a context of global tensions, nuclear disarmament is a lesser concern for the non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS) than they themselves have long been suggesting. That the stability of the NPT does not depend on progress towards disarmament is good news. For Germany's National Security Strategy (NSS), it means that greater concessions to advocates of the TPNW are not necessary to protect the NPT. |
| Keywords: | Nuklearer Nichtverbreitungsvertrag, Vertrag über die Nichtverbreitung von Kernwaffen, Atomwaffensperrvertrag, NVV, Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT, "Nuclear Ban Treaty", Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, TPNW, Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie, NSS, Atomwaffen, Kernwaffen, atomare Abrüstung, nukleare Abrüstung, nukleare Abschreckung, Nato, Ukraine-Krieg, Ukrainekrieg, regelbasierte internationale Ordnung, nukleare Normen, nukleare Ordnung, Kernkraftwerk Saporischschja, Atomwaffenverzicht, Mittelmächte, Proliferation, Nonproliferation, Nichtverbreitung |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:692022&r=cis |
| By: | Vulović, Marina |
| Abstract: | Even though the six Western Balkan countries (WB6) have close political ties with the EU, their alignment with the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) has increasingly come into focus since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. The EU should take a differentiated view of the WB6's political and security cooperation with external actors such as Russia, China and Turkey. Within the WB6, the two "outliers" of Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina's Republika Srpska use their foreign and security relations with Russia to achieve their own political goals. While Serbia seeks support for its Kosovo policy, Republika Srpska is trying to get backing for its separatist tendencies. The WB6 are not expected to end their cooperation with the aforementioned external actors in the near future. Nonetheless, in today's shifting geopolitical arena, the EU must set priorities that bind the WB6's outliers to the CFSP. |
| Keywords: | Western Balkan, EU, Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), Russia, China, Turkey, Republika Srpska, NATO, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:82023&r=cis |
| By: | Klein, Margarete; Schreiber, Nils Holger |
| Abstract: | Moscow's decision on 24 February 2022 to invade Ukraine constituted a culmination in the militarisation trajectory of Russian foreign policy since 2008. At the same time, the war has exposed the weaknesses of the military reform launched by Moscow in 2008. The high losses of the country's armed forces in Ukraine limit Russia's military power projection capabilities, for example in Syria and in other conflicts. Moreover, military setbacks and partial mobilisation have undermined an important pillar of the regime's legitimacy. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Russia, Vladimir Putin, military reform, invasion, war of aggression, militarisation of foreign policy, regime legitimacy, mobilisation |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:712022&r=cis |
| By: | Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Moguchev Nikita (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Matveev Evgeniy (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the main results of research on the topic of Methodological approaches to forecasting non-oil and non-gas tax revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation. This article aims to identify approaches to forecasting non-oil and non-gas tax revenues and to study their applicability for the Russian Federation. Tax forecasting is a vital part of budget planning, and in the case of the current economic instability, the problem of precise forecasting of non-oil and non-gas revenues is of particular relevance. In this research, the existing methodological approaches to forecasting tax revenues were reviewed and systematized, their main disadvantages and advantages were identified and analyzed. The optimal forecasting method is non-structural modeling using BVAR - under certain conditions, the accuracy of such forecasts is higher then using structural models. At the same time, BVAR models are more flexible, less time-consuming and lack many of the disadvantages of non-structural models. An analysis of foreign experience shows that there is a tendency to use a portfolio of models for tax forecasting. Approbation of BVAR forecasting on Russian data shows that the effects of the main macro variables on tax revenues and on the proxies of the tax base are consistent with theoretical concepts. Thus, macroeconomic indicators are important factors in forecasting tax revenues, which is also confirmed by the sensitivity analysis of official forecasts. However, to improve the accuracy of the forecast, structural restrictions on the model should be imposed, so is worth considering the DSGE model with the fiscal sector along the way. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, non-oil and gas revenues, fiscal forecasting, BVAR model |
| JEL: | H57 D73 D44 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2023-1258&r=cis |
| By: | Grömling, Michael |
| Abstract: | Gemäß einer IW-Schätzung dürfte die weltweite Wirtschaftsleistung im Jahr 2022 um deutlich über 1.600 Milliarden US-Dollar niedriger ausgefallen sein als es hauptsächlich ohne die russische Invasion in der Ukraine der Fall gewesen wäre. Im Jahr 2023 können sich die weltweiten Produktionsausfälle gemäß den bestehenden Rahmenbedingungen auf nochmals rund 1.000 Milliarden US-Dollar belaufen. Fast 40 Prozent der Einbußen in 2023 entfallen schätzungsweise auf die Aufstrebenden Volkswirtschaften und Entwicklungsländer. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:122023&r=cis |
| By: | Efremov Igor (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Novikov Kirill (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Pustovalov Denis (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The object of the research is fertility, mortality, the relationship between fertility, mortality, population migration, targets of national projects on the one hand and measures provided for by national projects on the other. The main aim of the research is to propose reasonable measures of state demographic policy that contribute to the achievement of national goals – to increase life expectancy to 78 years and sustainable population growth by 2030. The main fundamental and applied problems solved in the research: analysis of the consistency of the main (demographic) national goals with each other and determination of ranges of values of their indicators necessary to achieve national goals; analysis of indicators of a Common plan to achieve national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, submission of proposals for measures aimed at achieving demographic goals of national projects in accordance with current demographic trends in Russia. The methods we use are statistical methods of demographic analysis, decomposition methods in demographic analysis; methods of medical statistics; cross-methods of assessing the interference of demographic indicators. Main results of the research: existing indicators of achieving national goals in terms of demographic development of the country are being analyzed. Indicators that are inconsistent with each other and the final goals are identified. Changes in the parameters of such indicators are proposed, as well as additional indicators for achieving life expectancy of 78 years by 2030. State policy measures designed to accelerate the reduction of mortality, the growth of the birth rate and the migration growth of the Russian population are proposed. |
| Keywords: | Russian education, demography, fertility, mortality, population migration, life expectancy, birth rate |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I26 I28 I29 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2023-1260&r=cis |
| By: | Fremerey, Melinda; Gerards Iglesias, Simon |
| Abstract: | Der russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine markiert eine Zäsur in der internationalen geopolitischen Architektur. Nach einem Jahr scheint es, als ob umfassende westliche Sanktionen Russland wirtschaftlich zwar geschwächt, jedoch nicht in die Knie gezwungen haben. Aber der Schein einer stabilisierten russischen Volkswirtschaft trügt. Im Vergleich zu 2022 steigert Russland 2023 seine Ausgaben für innere und äußere Sicherheit um 25 Prozent auf 124, 7 Mrd. Euro, denen Einnahmeausfälle von Öl- und Gasexporten in Höhe von 35, 5 Mrd. Euro gegenüberstehen. Das Wachstum, das Russland zugeschrieben wird, ist vor allem getrieben durch die Kriegswirtschaft. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:132023&r=cis |
| By: | Elizaveta P. Dobronravova (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Mikhail I. Orekhov (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Irina I. Yakovleva (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate the effects of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy on the Eurasian Economic Union members. The relevance of the study arises from two points: first, economic integration implies coordination in macroeconomic policy; second, fluctuations of Russian economy as the biggest economy in the region cause fluctuations in the whole EAEU, changing the flows of goods and resources. The purpose of this paper is to identify key effects and channels of cross-border transmission of Bank of Russia’s monetary policy under changing monetary regimes of the EAEU countries. For the empirical model we use quarterly data on EAEU key macroeconomic indicators from 2000 to 2021, the basic method is block-exogenous structural vector autoregression. Our results show that interest rate channel plays the key role in cross-border transmission of monetary policy effects in the region. The exception is the case when the recipient’s country central bank employs fixed exchange rate regime, rendering international interest rate channel ineffective. Another important channel is international trade: monetary policy tightening leads to the contraction of demand for the imported goods, so the exports of the recipient countries decrease. We conclude that despite heterogenous response among the EAEU countries to monetary shocks occurring in Russia, monetary policy tightening decreases economic activity in the whole economic union. The study can be extended in several ways like the analysis of the synchronization in systematic monetary policy decisions in EAEU or detailed estimations of financial channels of international transmission using banking statistics. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, cross-border effects of monetary policy, cross-border transmission, economic integration, Eurasian Economic Union, econometric analysis, structural vector autoregression |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022056&r=cis |
| By: | ZUBOV S.A (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); VEDEV A.L. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); KOVALEVA M.A. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The object of the research is the interconnections arising in the process of operation of Russian and foreign payment systems. The goal of the study is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the risks faced by the settlement and payment systems operating in the context of the global recession, mounting sanctions against Russia, as well as the expected economic recovery and growth and the reorientation of production to new energy sources. Research methodology. In the course of the study, methods of scientific abstraction, economic and statistical analysis, functional and structural analysis, a systematic approach, a comparison method, graphical and tabular visualization techniques for statistical and other data, generalization and formalization were used. The project was carried out as part of the research work carried out by the Laboratory for Structural Research of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021. Research results: Description of the mechanisms of influence of organizational and technical factors on the state of the payment system and the implementation of cashless payments by commercial banks, Building a system of dependencies between the introduction of the latest payment systems and the development level of the financial market, as well as the main macroeconomic indicators, Analyzing traditional methods of risk assessment and management, proposing approaches to their improvement, Development of a methodology for backing up system-wide risk. |
| Keywords: | cashless payments, blockchain, cryptocurrencies, payment systems, national payment system, payment services, payment infrastructure, digital economy, electronic money |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022067&r=cis |
| By: | A. N. Morozov (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); K. A. Ionkina (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the prerequisites for the emergence of a firm’s market power using basic models of oligopoly. The significance of the study is related to identifying theoretical prerequisites that are essential for modifying the collective dominance institution, which can be considered a legal analogue of the economic concept of oligopoly. The objective of the paper is to identify the elements associated with the emergence of market power under the oligopoly model, allowing to shape theoretical basis for the collective dominance concept application. Multiple objectives have to be met before the said objective can be achieved: 1) highlighting the relevant signs of interaction between oligopolistic firms; 2) identifying limitations for the application of collective dominance concept in practice. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the formation of theoretical basis for the legal concept of collective dominance in Russia. The subject of the paper is the relationship between the concept of collective dominance in Russia and the basic oligopoly models. The study is part of a complex project which represents a RANEPA state research assignment and aims at exploring the effects of the collective dominance concept application in Russia. The study is based on industrial organization methods. The main findings of the study consist of the following: highlighting the aspects associated with market power emergence in oligopoly models (small number of participants, high entry costs, significant goods differentiation, high switching costs, full information for competitors and low availability of information for consumers); reflecting the prerequisites for the market power emergence under oligopoly in the Russian version of the collective dominance concept; stating the importance of a comprehensive application of the prerequisites under consideration through the analysis of oligopoly models. The conclusions of the research will used to design the roadmap for further reforms of the Russian collective dominance concept. |
| Keywords: | Market power, oligopoly, collective dominance, Bertrand model, Cournot model, Chamberlin's oligopoly model, Stackelberg model, cartel |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022048&r=cis |
| By: | Zuzana FungáÄ ová; Alexei Karas; Laura Solanko; Laurent Weill |
| Abstract: | We study whether bank failure probability systematically varies over the election cycle in Russia. Using monthly data for 2002-2020 and controlling for standard bank risk indicators we find that bank failure is less likely during periods preceding presidential elections. We explore whether this effect is more pronounced for banks whose failure is associated with greater political costs, such as important players in the household deposit market or important players in regional markets. We find no evidence for this latter effect. Overall, our results provide mixed evidence that political cycles matter for the occurrence of bank failures in Russia. |
| Keywords: | Bank Failure, Election, Russia |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2206&r=cis |
| By: | Zane Varpina (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Kata Fredheim (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Marija Krumina (Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | Data on migration flows suggest that young people are highly mobile. Yet, there are gaps in the evidence concerning the factors driving young people’s international migration in Latvia. Latvia is a potentially interesting case because of the high rate of migration from the country, but also because it is a complex ethnic and linguistic environment. Latvian and Russian speaking populations are shown to have diverse migration drivers, and this study addresses the differences in attitudes to studying and living abroad for adolescents at the time of school graduation. Literature suggests that Russian-speaking population have higher propensity to emigrate. We aim to contribute to the literature by exploring differences in migration intentions between Latvian and Russian speaking high school graduates. This study is based on individual-level survey data of secondary school graduates in Latvia in 2020, amidst COVID-19 pandemic. We analyse the strength of migration intentions from definitely not leaving Latvia to surely planning to emigrate. We conclude that Russian-speakers exhibit stronger intentions to emigrate compared Latvian-speaking youngsters, driven by wider networks and expected higher returns to their human capital abroad. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bic:opaper:13&r=cis |
| By: | Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University) |
| Abstract: | Characteristic of the corporation is the state of relations between it and its participants (founders), which is to concentrate their interest and/or capital around the purpose of its activity. The purpose of the corporation's activity, which is revealed through the desire for the realization of private interest, which is not limited exclusively by the sphere of entrepreneurial activity. But such interest is of only private nature. Its privacy symbolizes the limitation solely by the range of persons who combine their own efforts around the corporation. Therefore, for him, the main idea of the existence of a corporation is to ensure the realization of a common purpose of its activity. At the same time, it should be emphasized that the variability of legal entities does not allow to limit their participation in civil turnover solely by the sphere of realization of private interest. The complexity of the construction of a legal entity as an artificial subject of law (fiction) implies the variability of the mechanisms of realization of the will of its "creator". In civil law, the idea has found its empirical implementation in part 1 of Article 83 of the Civil Code of Ukraine, which provides for the creation of legal entities in the form of companies and institutions. In view of the provisions of Article 83 of the Civil Code of Ukraine, in the normative context of division of legal entities into companies and institutions. There is a reasonable question of the nature of relations that realize the status of a legal entity, which is not a corporation - legal relations with the participation of the institution. The absence of a model of relations between the legal entity and its participant, which, through the activity of such a legal means in the civil turnover, provides his or her personal interest, indicates that there is a interest in another order - the interest of the public. Public interest in the activity of a legal entity is specific to the latter. The activity of a legal entity is not conditioned by the behavior of its participants. This formula marked the lack of interdependence of a legal entity with its participant (founder). |
| Abstract: | Характерним для корпорації є стан відносин між нею та її учасниками (засновниками), який полягає в концентрації їх інтересу та/або капіталу навколо мети її діяльності. Мета діяльності корпорації, яка розкривається через прагнення в реалізації приватного інтересу, який не обмежується винятково сферою підприємницької діяльності. Але такий інтерес має виключно приватний характер. Його приватність символізує обмеженість виключно колом осіб, які об'єднують власні зусилля навколо корпорації. Отже, для нього головна ідея існування корпорації – це забезпечення реалізації спільності мети її діяльності. В той же час варто наголосити, що варіативність діяльності юридичних осіб не дозволяє обмежити їх участь в цивільному обороті виключно сферою реалізації приватного інтересу. Складність конструкції юридичної особи як штучного суб'єкту права (фікції) передбачає варіативність механізмів реалізації волі її «творця». В цивільному законодавстві відповідна ідея знайшла свого емпіричного втілення у частині 1 статті 83 Цивільного кодексу України, яка передбачає створення юридичних осіб у формі товариств і установ. З огляду на положення статті 83 Цивільного кодексу України, в нормативного контексті поділу юридичних осіб на товариства і установи. Виникає розумне питання природи відносин, які реалізують статус юридичної особи, яка ознаками не є корпорацією – юридичних відносин за участю установи. Відсутність моделі відносин між юридичною особою та її учасником, яка через активність такого правового засобу в цивільному обороті забезпечує його особистий інтерес, свідчить про наявність інтересу іншого порядку – інтересу публічного. Публічний інтерес у діяльності юридичної особи специфікує останню. Діяльність юридичної особи не зумовлюється поведінкою її учасників. У цій формулі відзначена відсутність взаємозалежності юридичної особи з її учасником (засновником). |
| Keywords: | Corporation law, Legal entities of commercial law, Foundations, Legal entity, Corporate law and regulation, Kostruba, Établissement d'enseignement privé |
| Date: | 2022–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03775665&r=cis |
| By: | Barinova Vera (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Levakov P. (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The study examines the effect of the crisis associated with coronavirus infection and increased sanctions pressure on the sector of small and medium-sized businesses in the Russian Federation in 2022. This sector can be considered the most susceptible to the influence of crisis phenomena in the economy. Key indicators of this businesses are analyzed, including the number of firms, employment, revenue and others. The study uses data provided by official sources, which include the Unified Register of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses, Rosstat, the Federal Tax Service and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The authors use data both for the whole country and in the regional context. Based on the analysis of these indicators, the authors draw several key conclusions. Firstly, the sector of small and medium sized businesses is managing the crisis better than expected, the values of key activity indicators have reached or have already exceeded the crisis values. Secondly, there is a noticeable trend towards a decrease in the average size of enterprises. It can be noted that the number of small businesses and self-employed citizens. This may be due to the need for enterprises to reduce the tax burden by transferring part of the employees to the self-employed format. Finally, we can note the increased credit burden on representatives of small and medium-sized businesses. In this regard, we propose to extend the program of subsidized lending for them, which is necessary for their adequate functioning. In the future, we plan to evaluate the effectiveness of the government's policy of supporting small and medium-sized businesses and provide recommendations for its improvement. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, SME sector, COVID-19, self-employment, credit burden |
| JEL: | D04 L25 L26 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2023-1262&r=cis |
| By: | Kazakova Maria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of this research is related to cross-innovation that have become new impulses for the development of creative industries and other industries in favor of strengthening economic diversification. This is an exceptionally new offer for real sector companies and the support of unique creative solutions based on advanced technologies. The main goal of the work is to identify cross-sectoral projects of creative industries and methodologically substantiate the development of cross-innovation cooperation between creative industries and other sectors of the economy. This implies formulation of the author's version of the boundaries of the concept of cross-sectoral cooperation between creative and «non-creative» industries. The main conclusions of the study are the following. Cross-innovation means cooperation of an intersectoral or interdisciplinary nature between creative industries and real-sector companies. The main goal of such activity is to ensure the competitiveness and efficiency of cross-innovation activities. Cross-innovation projects also contribute to the emergence of new economic benefits produced not only by cultural and creative industries, but also by other economic agents, since these projects create favorable conditions for doing business. In their turn, regions and territories that serve as a space for the development of cross-innovative projects, attract investment, labor and are characterized by dynamic economic development. Conclusions about practical significance of this research argue that this work may serve as a direct guide for the development of cross-innovation cooperation in Russia, due to its scientific novelty and methodological importance. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, creative industries, economic growth, models of creative industries |
| JEL: | O10 O15 O31 O34 Z10 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2023-1257&r=cis |
| By: | Vedev Alexey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Current global economy development trends make banks to speed up their transfer from traditional business models to financial ecosystems based on modern digital instruments. This suggests modernization of the overall banking supervision system, introduction of new regulatory principles and control methods and adjustment of traditional approaches to a new environment. The study looks into the digital transformation’s negative effects on the level of competition in the banking sector and provides an in-depth analysis of international experience in implementing financial and technological innovations in commercial banks, as well as approaches to evaluating the level of banking competition. The study is aimed at developing the guidelines for upgrading banking oversight and regulation to facilitate organizational and stabilizing effect and bolster confidence in banks as financial intermediaries, as well as proposals on introduction of new mechanisms of neutralizing bank risks amid technological transformation of the Russian financial sector. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, banking sector, banking competition, bank risks, Russian financial sector |
| JEL: | G21 G24 G28 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2023-1255&r=cis |
| By: | Abduvaliev, Mubnzhon |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of remittances on economic growth in Central Asian countries during the COVID-19 outbreak. We use a panel data set on economic growth in five Central Asian Republics which were former members of the Soviet Union. We found that a 1% decline in remittance inflow would result in a 0.05% to 0.06% decrease in the average per capita GDP of Central Asian country's economies. We also found that a 1% decrease in the Russian economy, from which most remittances are sent, would reduce the average per capita GDP of Central Asian countries by 0.06%. |
| Keywords: | Central Asian countries, COVID-19, remittances, economic growth, Russian spillover effect |
| JEL: | F22 F23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116107&r=cis |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | Si l’anneÌ e 2021 fut marqueÌ e, dans une situation de rattrapage eÌ conomique post-Covid, par la progression des cours de la quasi-totaliteÌ des matieÌ€res premieÌ€res agricoles, mineÌ rales ou eÌ nergeÌ tiques, tel ne fut pas le cas pour 2022, caracteÌ riseÌ e, au contraire, par une grande heÌ teÌ rogeÌ neÌ iteÌ de trajectoires. Le deÌ clenchement de la guerre en Ukraine a certes conduit aÌ€ une eÌ leÌ vation forte de nombreux produits de base en raison du poids de la Russie, de l’Ukraine voire du Belarus, dans la production mondiale. NeÌ anmoins, ce sont l’imposition, ou non, de sanctions commerciales et financieÌ€res envers les entreprises exportatrices russes ainsi que la mise en Å“uvre de mesures de repreÌ sailles par Moscou qui ont fondamentalement deÌ termineÌ la trajectoire haussieÌ€re ou baissieÌ€re des prix. Tout ne s’expliquait cependant pas par la situation geÌ opolitique, la macroeÌ conomie mondiale reprenant quelque peu ses droits au second semestre 2022. L’appreÌ ciation du dollar sur une majeure partie de l’anneÌ e a ainsi peseÌ sur les prix, tout comme les incertitudes eÌ conomiques et sanitaires en Chine et les doutes relatifs aÌ€ la politique zeÌ ro-Covid deÌ creÌ teÌ e par PeÌ kin jusqu’en deÌ cembre. Alors que le conflit entre la Russie et l’Ukraine devrait perdurer, ces meÌ‚mes variables deÌ termineront en large part la physionomie des marcheÌ s en 2023 dans une situation macroeÌ conomique deÌ primeÌ e. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb05-23&r=cis |
| By: | Kireeva Anastasia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the study is to analyze the main economic and legal issues of the institute of extended producer responsibility (EPR) in the context of the "garbage reform", while the study`s main objectives include a retrospective analysis of lawmaking activity aimed at reforming the environmental payment system as a whole and EPR in particular, a review of scientific papers and expert opinions on why the "garbage reform" is not effective enough, an analysis of the main challenges faced by the existing EPR and the Concept on reforming thereof, as well as development of proposals based on the study's findings. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, environmental protection, eco-payments |
| JEL: | Q15 Q24 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2023-1259&r=cis |
| By: | Tsatsura E.A. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Grishina E.E. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus pandemic has led to drastic economic and social disruption, increasing the need for social support and social services. The purpose of this study is to trace changes in the system of social protection and social services induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, and identify the related challenges faced by Russian regions. The objectives of this study include building a survey toolkit, conducting expert interviews with representatives of regional ministries responsible for social protection of the population and analyzing the data obtained. The methods used include expert interviews, analysis, comparison and generalization. The study explores the difficulties in organizing assistance to the population during the COVID-19 pandemic, analyzes the decisions made and the potential for making social assistance more effective, which underscores the importance of the study. The object of the research is the system of social protection of the population at the level of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is the social security system’s experience during the coronavirus pandemic. The results of the study show that the pandemic has necessitated quick decision-making and completely new approaches, and exacerbated problems such as poor interagency coordination, low salaries of specialists, underdevelopment of digital technologies and people’s insufficient readiness to use remote access technologies. Nevertheless, the period of the pandemic has pushed the social protection system to develop in several aspects. First of all, this concerned the development of digital technologies for administrative purposes as well as for informing the population and providing services, and efforts to meet the needs of the population and reduce bureaucratic barriers in providing social support and social services. Еxploring opportunities for using digital technologies to improve the availability and quality of social support and social services is very important and may be considered as a subject for further research. |
| Keywords: | coronavirus, COVID-19, social support, social services, support measures, regions, economic crisis, needy, poor |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022051&r=cis |
| By: | Maihold, Günther; Muscio Blanco, Tania; Zilla, Claudia |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine have posed major challenges - in different ways - to Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries as well as to the European Union (EU). At the same time, these international crises have revealed how little resilience there is in the narratives that are supposed to inform normative relations between the two regions: shared values, strategic partnership, and dialogue at eye level. In fact, this rhetoric is based on wishful thinking and does less and less justice to the reality of mutual relations. Common ground is crumbling, and there is a lack of projects that give meaning and purpose to cooperation. Such projects would have a chance of success especially if divergent views were addressed and mutual expectations were openly negotiated. Instead of building on commonalities, future-oriented cooperation should rely more on complementarities - within the framework of varying formats. |
| Keywords: | Germany, EU, Latin America, Caribbean (LAC), Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:12023&r=cis |
| By: | Bayerlein, Michael |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine have highlighted the dependence of the European Union (EU) on individual trading partners. One of the tasks of the European Commission's new Directorate-General, the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), established in 2021, will therefore be to contribute to the EU's 'open strategic autonomy' by identifying and eliminating import dependencies in the field of pharmaceuticals. HERA's work thus aligns with current EU efforts to reduce concentrated import risks. Here, three aspects of this work are particularly important: the identification of dependencies, the development of strategies to overcome them and the incorporation of these strategies within global health governance. |
| Keywords: | Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority, HERA, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, BARDA, Critical Raw Materials Act, CRMA, European Raw Materials Alliance, ERMA, European Chips Act, Global Antibiotic Research & Development Partnership, GARDP, Innovative Health Initiative, IHI, Incubator for Antibacterial Therapies in Europe, INCATE, Minerals Security Partnership, MSP, Raw Materials Investment Platform, RMIP, Covid-19, NextGenerationEU, rescEU, UN Comtrade, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, ECDC, Important Project of Common European Interest, IPCEI, pharmaceuticals, antibiotics, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, API, Finished Pharmaceutical Product, FPP, supply chains, global health governance, Reshoring, friend-shoring |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:22023&r=cis |
| By: | Heo, Jai Chul (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Yeon, Wonho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Sangbae (Seoul National University); Kim, Younkyoo (Hanyang University); Kim, Heungkyu (Ajou University); PAK, Seong Bin (Ajou University); Lee, Seungjoo (Chung-Ang University.); LEE, Jungoo (Hanyang University); Lee, Wang Hwi (Ajou University) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 최근의 경제안보 이슈를 ‘복합지정학(Complex Geopolitics)’의 시각에서 이해해야 할 필요성을 제기하며, 경제안보 개념이 경제적 통치술(economic statecraft)과 경제회복력(economy resilience), 그리고 상호신뢰(mutual trust) 구축이라는 요소를 내포하고 있다고 보았다. 그리고 이러한 개념 정리를 바탕으로 반도체, 배터리 등 주요 산업별 공급망과 주요국의 경제안보 전략에 대해 분석한 후, 우리의 경제안보 전략에 대한 시사점을 도출하였다. The concept of economic security largely includes the elements of economic statecraft, economic resilience, and building mutual trust. Economic statecraft refers to the act of using economic means in fields such as trade, investment, and finance as a source of power in order to achieve one’s national interest or to change the behavior of another country. Economic resilience, then, refers to measures used to preserve the national interest in the economic field from external threats, and signifies the ability to recover immediately even when physically threatened. This can be explained as the ability to respond to areas of sensitivity and vulnerability, which can be secured by reducing sensitivity by lowering dependence on the other party and reducing vulnerability by preparing alternatives for emergencies. Lastly, building mutual trust explains the psychological aspect of economic security, and in the end, it means that a stable economic security environment cannot be created without trust- building between countries. Recently, the intensification of U.S.-China strategic competition, spread of COVID-19 infections, and the Russia-Ukraine war are disrupting the global supply chain and increasing instability in the global economy. The resulting instability in the supply of semiconductors, medicines, food, and energy is leading to an economic downturn, and the U.S., China, Japan, and EU are actively pursuing strategies to strengthen economic security.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | International Security; Economic Cooperation; Geopolitical Risk; U.S.-China Strategic Competition; U.S.-China Strategic Competition; Economic Security |
| Date: | 2022–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2022_001&r=cis |
| By: | Breckenfelder, Johannes; Maćkowiak, Bartosz; Marqués-Ibáñez, David; Olovsson, Conny; Popov, Alexander; Porcellacchia, Davide; Schepens, Glenn |
| Abstract: | Climate change and the public policies to arrest it are and will continue reshaping the global economy. This Discussion Paper draws on economic research to identify some key medium- and long-run economic implications of these developments. It explores implications for growth, innovation, inflation, financial markets, fiscal policy, and several socio-economic outcomes. The main message that emerges is that climate change will cause income divergence across individuals, sectors, and regions, adjustment in energy markets, increased inflation variability, financial markets stress, intensified innovation, increased migration, and rising public debt. These challenges appear manageable for EU member states, especially under an early and orderly transition scenario. At the same time, the direction, scope, and speed of economic transformation is subject to large uncertainty due to two separate factors: the wide range of climate scenarios for a given trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and the exact policy path governments choose, especially in the context of the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine. JEL Classification: D6, E3, F2, G2, O1, Q5 |
| Keywords: | climate change, financial markets, growth, inflation, socio-economic implications |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232793&r=cis |
| By: | Anger, Christina; Plünnecke, Axel |
| Abstract: | In den für Innovationen, Digitalisierung und Dekarbonisierung besonders wichtigen akademischen MINT-Berufen trägt die Zuwanderung nach Deutschland bereits seit Jahren stark zur Fachkräftesicherung bei. Unter den ausländischen Beschäftigten in diesen Berufen liegen die Nationalitäten aus Indien, der Türkei, Italien, China und Russland an der Spitze - bei den Drittstaatsangehörigen mit beeindruckenden Zuwächsen. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:62023&r=cis |
| By: | Mduduzi Biyase (College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, University of Johannesburg); Talent Zwane (College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, University of Johannesburg); Precious Mncayi (North West University); Mokgadi Maleka (College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, University of Johannesburg) |
| Abstract: | While technological innovation and financial development are broadly credited as important drivers of economic growth of developed nations, its impact on inequality (especially in emerging economies) remains understudied. This study employs panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (PDOLS) and panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (PFMOLS) with annual data sourced from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database, IMF and World Bank (1990-2017) to investigate the impact of technological innovation and financial development on income inequality in BRICS countries. The results suggest that technological innovation increases income inequality in the BRICS nations, while financial development has income reducing effect on inequality. Our results are robust, using alternative estimation with various sub-indicators of financial development (such as financial markets, financial institution), including other measures proxied by access to credit provided by commercial bank. |
| Keywords: | BRICS, PFMOLS, PDOLS, technological innovation, inequality. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ady:wpaper:edwrg-01-2023&r=cis |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | Les fluctuations que connaissent les marchés de l'énergie depuis le début de la pandémie de la Covid-19 en 2019/2020 se sont prolongées, avec une incertitude sans précédent, sur l'approvisionnement énergétique mondial, qui s'est développée au cours de 2022 Ã la suite de l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, dans un contexte d'affaiblissement de la macroéconomie et d'inflation élevée. Alors que certains voyaient en ce contexte un risque de ralentissement de la transition énergétique, d’autres y ont vu une opportunité pour s’affranchir des énergies fossiles et accélérer le développement des technologies propres. Ce Policy Brief explore cinq tendances récentes qui sont susceptibles de façonner la transformation du système énergétique en 2023 et met l’accent sur les enjeux des technologies propres qui seront nécessaires pour accélérer la transition vers un avenir plus vert. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb04-23&r=cis |