|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2020‒12‒07
fifteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Fidrmuc, Jarko; Moroz, Serhiy; Reck, Fabian |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of ethnic heterogeneity and military conflict on the degree of regional consumption risk-sharing in Ukraine. Ethnicity and violent conflicts can influence risk-sharing e.g. through social capital, ethnic fractionalization, migration, and remittances. The sample consists of 25 Ukrainian oblasts and covers the highly volatile period from 2003 to 2016. Our results suggest that the degree of consumption risk-sharing is comparably high; between 70 and 80 percent on average. Moreover, consumption risk-sharing is significantly higher in the regions with a large Russian minority, which are enjoying special treatment by Russia. By contrast, the degree of financial development, as proxied by deposit and loan share in GRP, does not significantly affect the regional degree of consumption risk-sharing. Furthermore, we apply spatial models to control for spatial dependence across regions. Results are confirmed and it is shown that spatial correlation is important. Finally, we show that the recent geopolitical conflict in east Ukraine changed the regional degree of consumption risk-sharing. |
| JEL: | E32 E21 R12 P25 |
| Date: | 2020–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2020_025&r=all |
| By: | Nicole V. Bodishteanu (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the author considers the main external and internal factors of the formation of the Eurasian track of the foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova from 2009 to 2020. Among the main internal factors influencing the development of Eurasian track (as opposed to European) of foreign policy, the author singles out: the coming to power of the pro-Russian President I. Dodon in 2016, and the pro-Western contingent of the parliament headed by M. Sandu, who, on the contrary, helps blur this track. Among external factors, the author considers such as: the influence of the Ukrainian crisis on the opinion of citizens of the Republic of Moldova towards Western institutions, and as a result, the growing popularity of the “Russian” foreign policy direction; the current orientation of the economy on the market of the CIS countries; “Soft power” of the Russian Federation, mostly concentrated on a common language (Russian) and cultural values (literature, historical past, etc.); the willingness of Eurasian partners (it is mainly about the Russian Federation, as well as the PRC) to provide assistance in crisis situations at no cost, unlike European and Western institutions, which traditionally indicate a number of democratic transformations in the country as one of the conditions for providing assistance to the recipient. In general, the author comes to the conclusion that the Eurasian track of the foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova is still in its infancy, but it has great potential and promises interesting prospects for a small state with a favorable geographical position and located at the crossroads of the most important transport routes between the West and the East. |
| Keywords: | Republic of Moldova; Eurasia; foreign policy; Eurasian integration; Russian Federation. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:39/ir/2020&r=all |
| By: | Mehrzod N. Sharifzoda (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article is devoted to analyzing the Kremlin's foreign policy in the post-Yugoslav space by the case of Russia's foreign policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. An analysis of Russia's foreign policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina will help to identify the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's foreign policy towards the post-Yugoslav countries. In addition, the author, examining the Russian-Bosnian relations during the last 27 years, tries to show the foreign policy of the superpower towards quasi-confederation and determine the place of Russia in the Western Balkans. Special attention is paid in the article to relations between Russia and the Republika Srpska which is against the entry of BiH to NATO. The close relations of Republika Srpska with Russia contradict the plans of the USA, which want to see BiH in NATO. Since the 1990s, the US has been trying to oust Russia from the Western Balkans. However, Russia demonstrates an aspiration to prevent the entry of BiH to NATO and supports the policy of Republika Srpska |
| Keywords: | BiH, Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, CIS, NATO, Russia, Western Balkans, Yugoslavia. |
| JEL: | F59 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:38/ir/2020&r=all |
| By: | Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Venera I. Bagranova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Christopher J. Gerry (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence for the effects of health shocks measured by any negative change in self-assessed health (SAH) status on employment, personal income, and wages in the Russian population. We employ the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) estimator combined with propensity score and nearest neighbour matching and data from Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey-HSE (RLMS-HSE) for 2000–2018. We find that adverse health shocks are associated with a reduction in the probability of remaining employed by 2%, and losses of income and wages of 17% and 11%, respectively. For men the consequences of health shocks are more drastic. Severe health shocks that are measured as a drop in SAH by two or more levels are associated with greater losses: respondents aged 30–45 years old lose approximately 60% of their monthly income for severe shocks, and those aged 46–72 lose 35–45% of their wages and 9–10% in the probability of remaining employed. |
| Keywords: | health shock, labour market outcomes, matching, difference-in-difference, Russia |
| JEL: | C23 I12 J60 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:237/ec/2020&r=all |
| By: | Maria V. Ermolova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes some verbal features in the West Russian Chronicles (WRC) (15–16th cc.). The 1st part examines contexts with the construction “áûòè + participle in -úø- / -âúø-”. This construction is extremely uncommon for Old Russian texts, nevertheless the very possibility of its use is important for understanding the history of the development of the temporal system in Russian. The material of WRC allows us to widen the list of contexts with this construction with two more examples. The 2nd part discusses the functions of pluperfect forms. Rare forms of pluperfect with the linking verb in the aorist form are found in WRC which is quite unexpected for a late text. This article discusses possible explanations for this phenomenon. As for the semantics of the pluperfect forms, all of the basic pluperfect meanings are presented in WRC. The comparison of the contexts with these meanings with the material of the other chronicles allows us to draw a number of conclusions about the history of the pluperfect’s development in Old Russian and its dialects |
| Keywords: | Old Russian language, West Russian Chronicles, past active participle, pluperfect |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:96/lng/2020&r=all |
| By: | E. V. Selezneva; O. V. Sinyavskaya; E.S. Gorvat |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Poverty Reduction - Access of Poor to Social Services Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34203&r=all |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | Agriculture and agrarian sectors have been gone through the serious transformation process since the collapse of the Soviet Union in Azerbaijan. An ever-growing body of academic literature body investigated the resource curse and Dutch disease theories to conceptualize non-oil sectors in Azerbaijan starting from the late 1990s; however, the unanimous conclusion about the status of agriculture, agrarian sectors or manufacturing is still highly anticipated. Modern statistical techniques and accumulated data on the crucial economic indicators allow us to conceptualize the main trends and dynamics of agriculture and agrarian sectors in the context of resource-richness in Azerbaijan. This paper aims to descriptively investigate the collected data related to agriculture and agrarian sectors. Special emphasis has been put on the theoretical relevance of Dutch disease and resource curse to operationalize the research interest and research question. The findings of the correlation analysis show that there is a positive, significant, and strong association between the real effective exchange rate of Azerbaijan and international oil prices. The other findings demonstrate that mainly agriculture-related variables decreased their role in the Azerbaijan economy since 1991 but only value-added per worker gradually rose, also correlating negatively with value-added in agriculture and investments in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan economy,agriculture,agrarian sectors,polynomial regression trendline,correlation analysis |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:226348&r=all |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria); Juncal Cuñado (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the vulnerability of BRICS exchange rates to geopolitical risks (GPR) using alternative measures ranging from global (historical and recent) GPR data to country-specific GRP data. We construct a GARCH-MIDAS-X model in order to accommodate available data frequencies for relevant series and by extension circumvent information loss and any associated bias. Using the long range data, we find that, on average, the BRICS exchange rates are less vulnerable to geopolitical risks, however, recent (short range) data suggest otherwise. We also find contrasting evidence between the recent global GPR data and the country-specific GPR data implying that the BRICS exchange rates are more vulnerable to global than domestic (country-specific) geopolitical risks in recent times while China seems to be the least vulnerable. The GARCH-MIDAS model that accounts for the GPR data outperforms the benchmark (the conventional GARCH-MIDAS model without the GPR predictor) both for the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. We also highlight some similarities in the results of long range GPR and oil price uncertainty and further note the sensitivity of the results to alternative data samples for GPR. Finally, our results have implications for portfolio diversification strategies in the BRICS foreign exchange markets and in particular, we document economic gains of accounting for GPR in the valuation of foreign exchange portfolio. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk; Exchange rate volatility; BRICS; GARCH-MIDAS; Forecast evaluation |
| JEL: | C53 F31 G17 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:2020105&r=all |
| By: | Lisaveta N. Lysenka (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The music of vocal-instrumental ensemble "Pesniary" is recognized in Belarus as a cultural heritage that must be saved and protected. In this paper, the approach of critical heritage studies is used to show, how this meaning of heritage is created, what heritage discourses exist in Belarus and how they constitute different meanings of heritage. The focus of the paper is on the confrontation and interrelation between the authorized, self-authorized and unauthorized heritage discourses. As well, the use of heritage for the constitution of national identity narratives is analyzed. The key points of the preservation and management of heritage in Belarus are the establishment of the heritage continuation and authenticity, exclusion of contradictory interpretations of the heritage, its interrelation to the particular version of the past, and hence the particular identity narrative. One of the main actors in the authorized heritage discourse is the government that puts efforts into recognizing and funding the one version of the heritage that corresponds with the state's cultural policy. Self-authorized and unauthorized heritage discourses use the "Pesniary" heritage to express national components of the collective identity and rejuvenate the past. |
| Keywords: | critical heritage studies, authorized heritage discourse, "Pesniary", national identity, Belarus. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:194/hum/2020&r=all |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | Inflation is one of the most important economic indicators for a country. Understanding inflation based on the consumer spending patterns allows for better conceptualization of the phenomenon and improved policy responses for the unwanted developments, more precisely, increased price levels in consumer markets. The current working paper develops Consumer Price Index-based inflation indicator via the help of the Laspeyres price index in the case of Azerbaijan to evaluate the post-booming period (which is since 2011). Moreover, the significant results of correlation analysis between the Paasche Price Index and oil prices, oil revenue, and real effective exchange rate (REER) demonstrate initial signals about the urban and rural inflation dynamics and trends in the case of oil-rich Azerbaijan. |
| Keywords: | Inflation,Macroeconomic Data,Consumer Price Index (CPI),Oil revenue,Laspeyres Index,Paasche Index,Azerbaijan Economy |
| JEL: | E01 E31 F41 O50 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:226217&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Education - Access & Equity in Basic Education Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth Poverty Reduction - Poverty and Health |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34221&r=all |
| By: | Marina S. Telezhkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey G. Maksimov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Globalisation and the development of technology called forth an expansion and a fundamental transformation of systems of higher education around the world. This research proposes a theoretical model that demonstrates that the growth in higher education enrolment is in response to technological shocks in which either high-skill-biased technologies, technologies replacing middle-skill workers or technologies raising the productivity of high-skill workers, which increases the wage premium of high-skill workers. The authors illustrate the workings of the model using Russian data for 2000–2018, discuss changes in the structure of the labour force, relative wages and enrolment in higher education during the last twenty years |
| Keywords: | educational economics, higher education expansion, demand for schooling, demand for higher education, technologies, economic development. |
| JEL: | I21 I25 I26 O14 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:59edu2020&r=all |
| By: | Gomtsyan, David; Tarasov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | In this paper, employing transaction level data for Russian imports, we explore the role of multi-product shipments in explaining shipping patterns across countries. First, we document that firms from more developed countries include on average more different products into a single shipment. We then show that such multi-product shipments can potentially explain why more developed countries tend to have a higher number of shipments per period with a lower average quantity and value. The mechanism considered in the paper is based on that multiproduct shipments allow splitting fixed costs per shipment across many products and, therefore, reducing total shipment costs. As a result, more developed countries tend to have lower fixed costs per shipment. Finally, we construct a simple partial equilibrium model that enables us to quantify the role of multi-product shipments in determining shipping costs. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric trade costs,fixed costs per shipment,advanced countries |
| JEL: | F10 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:20061&r=all |
| By: | Inaki Arto (Basque Centre for Climate Change – BC3); Jose M. Rueda-Cantuche (European Commission – JRC); M. Victoria Roman (European Commission – JRC); Ignacio Cazcarro (Basque Centre for Climate Change – BC3); Antonio F. Amores (European Commission – JRC); Erik Dietzenbacher (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | The European Commission identified trade policy as a core component of the European Union's 2020 Strategy. The fast changing global economy, characterised by the dynamic creation of business opportunities and increasingly complex production chains, means that it is now even more important to fully understand how global value chains affect value added. Gathering comprehensive, reliable and comparable information on this is crucial to support evidence-based policymaking. Guided by that objective, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has produced this publication. It aims to be a valuable tool for trade policymakers. The report features a series of indicators to illustrate in detail the EU value added dependence on the final demand of each EU Member State, and the value added in each Member State depending on the EU final demand as a whole. This is done using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), 2016 release, as the main data source. This information has been complemented with data on labour compensation by skill and gender from other sources such as EUKLEMS. Besides, indicators have been also included to account for the inter-dependence between the EU and other world economies. Most indicators cover the period 2000-2014 but, due to data constraints, the indicators on labour compensation by skill and gender are only available from 2008 onwards. The geographical breakdown of the data includes the 28 EU Member States, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey, Taiwan, the United States of America, and an aggregate “Rest of the World†region. The information presented in this pocketbook is complemented with a software tool for analyses of global value chains, trade, income and employment. This tool enables a more detailed analysis of the different indicators related to global value chains and includes additional data management and visualization options. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Trade, European Union |
| JEL: | F62 C67 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc120522&r=all |
| By: | Inaki Arto (Basque Centre for Climate Change – BC3); Jose M. Rueda-Cantuche (European Commission – JRC); M. Victoria Roman (European Commission – JRC); Ignacio Cazcarro (Basque Centre for Climate Change – BC3); Antonio F. Amores (European Commission – JRC); Erik Dietzenbacher (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | The European Commission identified trade policy as a core component of the European Union's 2020 Strategy. The fast changing global economy, characterised by the dynamic creation of business opportunities and increasingly complex production chains, means that it is now even more important to fully understand how global value chains affect employment. Gathering comprehensive, reliable and comparable information on this is crucial to support evidence-based policymaking. Guided by that objective, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has produced this publication. It aims to be a valuable tool for trade policymakers. The report features a series of indicators to illustrate in detail the dependence of the EU employment on the final demand of each EU Member State, and of the employment in each Member State on the EU final demand. This is done using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), 2016 release, as the main data source. This information has been complemented with data on employment by skill and gender from other sources such as EUKLEMS. Besides, indicators have been also included to account for the inter-dependence between the EU and other world economies. Most indicators cover the period 2000-2014 but, due to data constraints, the indicators on employment split by skill and gender are only available from 2008 onwards. The geographical breakdown of the data includes the 28 EU Member States, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey, Taiwan, the United States of America, and an aggregate “Rest of the World†region. The information presented in this pocketbook is complemented with a software tool for analyses of global value chains, trade, income and employment. This tool enables a more detailed analysis of the different indicators related to global value chains and includes additional data management and visualization options. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Trade, European Union |
| JEL: | F62 C67 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc120520&r=all |