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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2019‒06‒10
25 papers chosen by |
| By: | Sinyagin, Yuriy (Синягин, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mudarisov, Ainur (Мударисов, Айнур) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ershov, Andrey (Ершов, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Murtazin, R.R. (Муртазин, Р.Р.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Korobko, I.S. (Коробко, И.С.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pavilova, Tatiana (Павилова, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This report included: a review of current approaches to personnel assessment; analysis of evaluation models in result-oriented systems; analysis of competence models applied in Russian and foreign government bodies; review of competence models and methods for their evaluation for various categories and groups of positions used in federal and regional executive bodies of Russia; analysis of the advantages and limitations of various models of competencies used in government bodies in Russia; review of foreign experience in applying competency models in various management systems. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041940&r=all |
| By: | Pavel K. Baev |
| Abstract: | The unique quality of relations between Russia and China cannot be captured by the term “partnership,†but the development of high†level ties does not signify a process of alliance building. The two states stand, in geopolitical terms, back†to†back to each other, as Russia gives priority attention to the confrontation on its Western theatre and China focuses of security matters in East Asia and trade relations with the United States. The China–Russia presidential pseudo†alliance has experienced at least three major turns in its development since the middle of this decade. Presently, it has transformed into a one†sided Russian dependency upon indifferent China and is certain to experience further challenges, as the two parties proceed along clearly diverging courses. |
| Keywords: | China, crisis, partnership, Russia, security |
| Date: | 2019–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201901&r=all |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitriy (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalischev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Assessment of risks and benefits for the Russian economy from various integration strategies in modern conditions To find the best ways for Russia to liberalize trade between EAEU and other countries of the world, taking into account the hostile actions of third parties (the sanctions confrontation with the EU and the USA, etc.), we used the GLOBE v1 computable general equilibrium model. We have limited ourselves to considering five integration sites, the formation of which, in our opinion, is most likely due to the current state of their negotiation progress: TPP without the USA, SCO, ASEAN, RCEP and TTIP. It was assumed that with each of these sites the EAEU may or may not create an FTA, which led us to consider 243 different scenarios. As shown by the calculations, the inaction of the EAEU has, as a rule, a weak positive effect on the countries of the EAEU both at the level of industries and at the level of the economy as a whole. At the same time, the participation of the EAEU countries in the integration processes can give noticeable gains in terms of GDP (up to 1.2% from Russia) and trade. Nevertheless, participation in these processes creates noticeable industry risks (decline in output to 1.9%) in some sectors. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041936&r=all |
| By: | Aliev, Timur (Алиев, Тимур) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Flegontova, Tatiana (Флегонтова, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Baeva, Marina (Баева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomareva, Olga (Пономарева, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pyzhikov, Nikita (Пыжиков, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the problem of increasing the number and complexity of non-tariff measures used in trade, in particular with regard to agricultural goods and food, as the groups that are most affected by them. Taking into account the fact that not all non-tariff measures act as barriers, authors form the methodology for their categorization in accordance with existing approaches created by international organizations and emerging types of non-tariff measures. Taking into account the fact that NTMs have the greatest impact on the trade in agricultural goods and food as well as Russia's high positions in the global markets of these goods, authors assess the impact of non-tariff measures on the trade of goods under consideration for the Russian side. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051904&r=all |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chentsov, Alexander (Ченцов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | During 2014-2015, a sharp depreciation of ruble has facilitated import reduction and growth of domestic production in Russia. In this article, we evaluate the effects of import substitution by estimating demand functions for imported and domestically produced commodities using the Rotterdam model. We calculate price and income elasticities for 17 aggregated commodity groups, and decompose changes in consumption into income and substitution effects. The effects of price changes and real incomes deterioration are extracted and analyzed. In the paper, we claim that the main factor that affected consumption demand during that period was a sharp appreciation of import. In a number of cases, this factor completely explains the changes in consumption, including some of the commodities, which Russia has embargoed in 2014. For several commodity groups, including Meat, and Preparations of vegetables and fruit, the import appreciation was a single main factor that affected the drop in import quantities (by 53% and 28% weight amount respectively) and a growth of demand for domestic goods (by 34% and 55%). The second factor that affected demand was a decline of real incomes. For example, in the case of alcoholic beverages, the real income reduction explained the 14% decrease of demand for domestically produced goods, and the 34% drop in import. A minor role in the events had played a substitution due to changes in domestic goods prices. This effect had a determining and statistically significant influence only in the case of demand reduction for domestically produced fish (by 12%). |
| Keywords: | EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION, INTEGRATION POLICY, FREE TRADING ZONE, TARIFF AND NONTARIFF BARRIERS, EXCHANGE RATE, VOLATILITY EXCHANGE COURSES, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, IMPORT DEMAND MODEL, ROTTERDAM DEMAND MODEL, “ALMOST THE PERFECT DEMAND MODEL” |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041935&r=all |
| By: | Becker, Torbjörn (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at how the Russian economy has developed under the leadership of Putin and how it spills over to its neighbours in the CIS region. It stresses the importance of international oil prices as a determinant of policies and outcomes in Russia and highlights how this has impacted macroeconomic performance during Putin’s different terms in office. Although Russia is not an economic superpower globally, the size and importance of Russia for the CIS region is significant and thus oil price changes also drive the economic development of non-fuel exporting CIS countries to a significant degree. |
| Keywords: | Russia; Putin; macroeconomis; CIS; transition |
| JEL: | E60 F40 O52 |
| Date: | 2019–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hasite:0048&r=all |
| By: | Arlashkin, Igor (Арлашкин, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Barbashova, Natalia (Барбашова, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Deryugin, Alexander (Дерюгин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Komarnitskaya, Anna (Комарницкая, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper contains the results of efficiency evaluation of taxes’ distribution between levels of public authority in Russian Federation, as well as the analysis of a relationship between assigning certain taxes to local budgets and regional economic growth. Based on the results of the analysis, recommendations are made in transferring additional revenue sources to the local level of government, and conclusions are provided concerning the impact of tax decentralization on the regional economic growth. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051902&r=all |
| By: | Vedev, Aleksey (Ведев, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Khromov, Mikhail (Хромов, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to the principles of developing scenarios for the long-term forecast of the financial sector of the Russian Federation. The basis for the forecast of the financial sector is represented by the scenario conditions of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development and the Government of the Russian Federation. Further, the authors offer, within the framework of government scenarios, a set of own scenarios describing possible fork in the development of the financial system of the Russian Federation, options for measures of monetary policy and the functioning of financial organizations. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051911&r=all |
| By: | Suyunchev, Marat (Суюнчев, Марат) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Repetyuk, Sergey (Репетюк, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tregubova, Ekaterina (Трегубова, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper abstracts the results of research scientific work «The Methodology development for Municipal infrastructure project capital investment risk assessment», which analyzes international and Russian practice of risk assessment for infrastructure projects capital investment (Municipal infrastructure, electric utilities, road construction), including Public Private Partnership projects. The integrated risk assessment Methodology for Municipal infrastructure project implementation is drawn. The Methodology determines the integrated risk assessment arrangement procedure, including participants specification, utilized methods and proposed findings. The risk assessment Procedure for Municipal infrastructure project implementation is suggested. It takes due account of representative features of investment projects implementation in Russian Federation and the disclosed information. The suggested Procedure testing was exemplified by integrated risk assessment of capital investment projects for water and sanitation public utility providers in Russia. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041937&r=all |
| By: | Barinova, Vera (Баринова, Вера) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zemtsov, Stepan (Земцов, Степан) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of the study, the results of which are presented in this paper, is to identify the regional and structural features of the high-tech support policy in Russia. The database on the financing of innovative projects by the main federal development institutions and departments was analyzed, and the main practices of high-tech support in the regions of Russia were systematized. The paper formulates recommendations for creating incentives for the development of high technologies. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051901&r=all |
| By: | Ilya Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the determinants of the expected returns on higher education among students of Russian universities accounting for the variation of the socio-economic development of Russian regions. Based on the longitudinal study, ‘Trajectories in Education and Careers’, it is shown that the average salary in a region is positively related to the individual estimates of expected salary after graduation, but does not affect the relative returns on higher education, i.e. the expected percentage increase in wages, compared to the salary in the absence of a higher education degree. In general, the results correspond to human capital theory, and confirm the rationality of students’ salary expectations. The expected salary shortly after graduation from university is positively related to the academic achievement expressed in the university entrance exam (the Unified State Exam, USE), full-time study and prior work experience. Male students expect to receive higher salaries compared to female students. Students who study for free, expect lower salaries compared to those students who cover their tuition costs. An indirect influence (through USE results) of school characteristics and parental education on expected salary was found. In addition, we discovered a direct and indirect relationship between family income and expected salaries after university graduation. |
| Keywords: | expected returns on higher education, higher education premium, USE, students’ salary expectations |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:50edu2019&r=all |
| By: | Vladislav Yakovenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines healthcare in the anti-Bolshevik Northern Region during the Civil War in Russia. The author focuses on structures and institutions of the healthcare system, their methods and resources, as well as geographical peculiarities of the Northern Region concerning medicine. The main conclusion of the article is that healthcare and medicine were the areas, where interests of the interventionists, central authorities and zemstvos, coincided and contradictions between them disappeared. The specific political, demographic and geographical conditions of the Northern Region made regulation of the sanitary situation relatively effective. |
| Keywords: | Civil War in Russia, White Movement, healthcare, Northern Region, medicine |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:176/hum/2019&r=all |
| By: | Sinyagin, Yuriy (Синягин, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chirkovskaya, Elena (Чирковская, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to the development of a scientifically based management model for the personal-professional development of individuals included in the managerial personnel reserve, the construction of a personal-professional development management algorithm based on a comprehensive resource analysis and using individual support technologies for personal-professional development and career development of individuals included in the managerial reserve personnel under the patronage of the President of the Russian Federation, as well as persons included in the federal reserve staffs. |
| Keywords: | personality-professional development, career management, managerial personnel reserve, federal reserve, state administration system, civil service, comprehensive resource analysis, individual support, personality-oriented management, career prospects. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041939&r=all |
| By: | Maracha, Vyacheslav (Марача, Вячеслав) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Based on the formation of innovative clusters and ecosystems in Russia, the network organization and system principles for transforming the relationship between the state and innovative business are considered. The focus focuses on the formation of innovation clusters and ecosystems as collaborative communities, the transition to a “cluster management organization” as a new advanced form of organization of the innovation process, as well as government policy to support such a transition along with government and business relations in this context. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051908&r=all |
| By: | Makram El-Shagi (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan); Jarko Fidrmuc (Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany); Steven Yamarik (California State University Long Beach, CA) |
| Abstract: | We test the Rajan hypothesis using data for 75 highly heterogeneous Russian regions between the Russian crisis and the introduction of international sanctions (2000-2012). Applying static as well as dynamic panel data models, we show that a rise in income inequality measured by regional Gini indices is significantly correlated with the growth of personal loans. Thus, the rising inequality in Russia is likely to have implications on financial staiblity and occurrence of banking crises. Moreover, the correlation of inequality and corporate loans indicates that inequality affects loans growth across more channels than those implied by the Rajan hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, bank loans, Rajan hypothesis, Russia |
| JEL: | E51 G01 R11 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fds:dpaper:201906&r=all |
| By: | Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Южаков, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dobrolyubova, Elena (Добролюбова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pokida, Andrey (Покида, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zybunovskaya, Natalia (Зыбуновская, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Aleksandrov, Oleg (Александров, Олег) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Maslennikova, Elena (Масленникова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the methodological approaches developed based on the analysis of foreign and Russian experience to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of control and supervisory activities from the position of citizens as its main beneficiaries, the results of a representative sociological survey conducted to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of state control (supervision) in the eyes of citizens 2018, as well as the methodology for conducting a functional analysis of control and supervisory activities and the results of its testing. Based on the survey, recommendations were made and can be used to further reform the control and supervisory activities in Russia. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051906&r=all |
| By: | Borisova, Larisa (Борисова, Лариса) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study was to identify effective management systems for small and medium-sized Russian companies, taking into account the peculiarities of the Russian mentality. As a result of the analysis of data obtained in the course of questioning and interviewing managers of small and medium-sized enterprises, the dependence of the organizational design on the cultural parameters of the managers and teams was revealed. The most effective management systems for small and medium-sized businesses are identified, taking into account the phase of their life cycle, management style, and organizational culture. The results of a comparative analysis of organizational design of successfully operating small and medium-sized enterprises with nationally homogeneous and nationally diverse teams are presented. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051912&r=all |
| By: | Dmitriev, Mikhail (Дмитриев, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Krapil, Valeriy (Крапиль, Валерий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kalmykov, Nikolay (Калмыков, Николай) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to the adaptation of accounting and budgeting methods by type of activity (ABC / ABB) to the practice of Russian state management in order to increase efficiency and use of resources. The paper examines: the degree of applicability of the ABC / ABB methods to the Russian practice of public administration; the state of the cost accounting system in the public sector and its compatibility with the requirements of the ABC; analysis of the executive authorities for the possible implementation of pilot projects for the implementation of ABC. |
| Keywords: | Administrative processes, public services, public spending, cost management, management efficiency, accounting, management accounting, functional cost analysis, process budgeting |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051907&r=all |
| By: | Stann, Carsten M.; Grigoriadis, Theocharis |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we argue that the ECB's unconventional monetary policy announcements have generated significant spillover effects in Russia and Eastern Europe. The hypothesis is tested using OLS estimations of event-based regressions on monetary policy event dummies and seven financial variables in eleven East European countries including Russia. Overall, the empirical results associate the ECB's unconventional policy announcements with the appreciation of East European currencies, rising stock market indices as well as falling long-term government bond yields and lower sovereign CDS spreads in Eastern Europe and Russia. Notably, bilateral integration with the eurozone is a key determinant of the strength of spillovers, with spillovers strongest in non-euro EU countries and weakest in non-EU East European countries. Interestingly, we find differentiated strength of spillovers to Russia compared to other non-EU East European countries, which we attribute to its fixed exchange rate regime. Lastly, we test for the presence of the portfolio rebalancing and confidence transmission channels. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission,spillovers,European Central Bank,transmission channels,Eastern Europe,Russia |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F34 F37 F42 P51 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20196&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus); David Roubaud (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France); Ojonugwa Usman (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus); Mark E. Wohar (Department of Economics, University of Nebraska-Omaha, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates not only the question of whether there is exchange rate and oil price pass-through (EROPPT) but also the extent to which the pass-through is asymmetric or state dependent in the BRICS countries. Using monthly data and the nonlinear Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive (VSTAR) model, we find evidence of period specific pass-through between the upper and lower regime periods, governed by the selected transition variables. We also find asymmetric pass-through in all the countries with strong evidence of higher pass-through when the size of the shocks to the transition variable moves the system above a threshold level. The result further divulges that output growth asymmetrically reacts to the shocks. The implication of these findings is that the pass-through is strongly affected by the state of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate pass-through, Oil price pass-through, Inflation, VSTAR |
| JEL: | C22 C58 E31 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-49.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the evolution of fast emerging economies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) countries, by assessing growth determinants throughout the conditional distributions of the growth rate and real GDP output for the period 2001-2011. An instrumenal variable (IV) quantile regression approach is complemented with Two-Stage-Least Squares and IV Least Absolute Deviations. We find that the highest rates of growth of real GDP per head, among the nine countries of this study, corresponded to China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Turkey, but the highest increases in real GDP per capita corresponded, in descending order, to Turkey China, Brazil, South Africa and India. This study analyzes the impacts of several indicators on the increase of the rate of growth of real GDP and on the logarithm of the real GDP. We analyze several limitations of the methodology, related with the selection of the explained and the explanatory variables, the effect of missing variables, and the particular problems of some indicators. Our results show that Net Foreign Direct Investment, Natural Resources, and Political Stability have a positive and significant impact on the rate of growth of real GDP or on real GDP. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; Emerging countries; Quantile regression |
| JEL: | C52 F21 F23 O40 O50 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:18/013&r=all |
| By: | Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semionova, Elena (Семионова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tokareva, Galina (Токарева, Галина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the results of a monitoring study of the effectiveness of general education conducted by the Center for Continuing Education Economics of the IPEI RANEPA in 2013–2018. The participants of a sociological survey of the sixth monitoring wave in 2018 were 40 school principals, 2,295 representatives of households, 2,077 teachers of educational institutions located in urban settlements and rural areas of the Chelyabinsk Region, Altai and Stavropol region, as well as in St. Petersburg. The paper considers the positions of teachers on a wide range of issues related to general education: the personnel situation in schools, the quality of teaching, the requirements of families for the organization of the educational process, the satisfaction of teachers with their professional activities. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041938&r=all |
| By: | Kaukin, Andrey (Каукин, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tomaev, Aleksandr (Томаев, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this study is to identify factors affecting the routing and intensity of Russian rail trade flows. Using the gravity model and relying on the information on interregional freight traffic during the period from 2012 to 2016, we estimate the degree of influence of certain variables on the volume of trade. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051913&r=all |
| By: | Sinyagin, Yuriy (Синягин, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sinyagina, Natalia (Синягина, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Markaryan, Violetta (Маркарян, Виолетта) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Barkova, Yulia (Баркова, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the challenges associated with the development of artificial intelligence and digitalization of management, based on the results of an empirical study among more than a thousand managers, a characteristic of a leader who is able to effectively manage in new conditions is composed. The paper characterizes a 4-factor model of the integrated readiness of civil service managers to work using artificial intelligence systems in a digital society. Expectations and ideas about artificial intelligence among Russian leaders at various levels are identified. The individual psychological and personal-professional qualities that influence the readiness of the heads of the civil service to work in a digital society have been studied. Also the paper analyzes the possible threats associated with the emergence and development of artificial intelligence systems. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051909&r=all |
| By: | Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | In this note we examine how changes in foreign exchange reserves and money supply are interrelated in the economy. We seek to demonstrate that even though foreign exchange reserve purchasing by a central bank has no direct effect on the dynamics of money supply or credit as long as an efficient bank liquidity management mechanism is in place, its indirect effects may be substantial. They are reflected in changes in the balance of payments (an increase in current account surplus and (or) an inflow of capital into the non-banking sector) and an increase in risk taking in the banking sector. That said, money supply does not expand if foreign exchange reserve accumulation is accompanied by the comparable increase of sovereign wealth funds, e.g. as part of a formal fiscal rule. On the other hand, sovereign wealth fund spending stimulates money supply growth only if it is not accompanied by a commensurate decrease in foreign exchange reserves. The Bank of Russia has been actively accumulating foreign exchange reserves over the past few decades. Analyses of the implications of those steps are often limited to reviewing the effect of changes in the supply of bank reserves in the interbank market. Indeed, this effect may be important in terms of managing liquidity or short-term interest rates. Yet in this note we examine the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation by a central bank in a broader sense, and analyse the changes it causes in the banking system balance sheet and the balance of payments. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:note19&r=all |