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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Anders Aslund (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Ukraine's intention to sign the European Association Agreement at the Vilnius summit in late November 2013 has raised a furor in the Kremlin, which wants it to join the Customs Union instead. In retaliation, Russia has imposed trade sanctions against Ukraine in clear violation of its obligations in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Åslund argues that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia all share the blame for creating the current impasse and must alter their policies to resolve the conflict. Ukraine should improve its macroeconomic policies to reduce its vulnerability and also comply with all EU demands, including releasing Yulia Tymoshenko. The European Union should support Ukraine but also make sure that Ukraine meets its conditions so that both parties can sign the agreement in November. The Association Agreement will bring substantial gains to Ukraine, whereas the Customs Union is smaller, less competitive, and does not offer Ukraine any significant benefits. Russia should realize that it is not in its national interest to force countries to join its Customs Union. It should obey the rules of the WTO and the Commonwealth of Independent States Free Trade Agreement and end its trade sanctions against Ukraine. The United States and the European Union should defend Ukraine against Russian economic aggression in the WTO and through vocal and economic support. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb13-22&r=cis |
| By: | Bruna Škarica |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the determinants of the changes in non-performing loans (NPL) ratio in selected European emerging markets. The model was estimated on a panel dataset using fixed effects estimator for seven Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries between Q3:2007 and Q3:2012. The analyzed countries are Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Romania and Slovakia. Although the literature on NPLs is quite extensive, this is the first empirical research on the countries of CEE region using aggregate, country – level data on problem loans. The results suggest that the primary cause of high levels of NPLs is an economic slowdown, which is evident from statistically significant and economically large coefficients on GDP, unemployment and inflation rate. |
| Keywords: | non-performing loans, macro-financial linkages, Central and Eastern Europe, panel regressions, financial stability |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 G10 |
| Date: | 2013–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zag:wpaper:1307&r=cis |