| Abstract: |
The paper discusses some of the implications of recent demographic changes in
the CEE/CIS on children of the region. The first part of the paper documents
the striking changes in population size and structures which have occurred
since the beginning of transition, and which have led to a substantial
reduction in the child population. It is argued that they have been mainly
driven by the drop in birth rates which has characterised the whole region,
but which has been most dramatic in the CEE and Western CIS. Some countries in
these subregions now rank among those with the lowest levels of fertility in
the world, and the shrinking cohorts of children in these countries face the
prospect of a growing old-age dependency burden. The second part of the paper
discusses recent data on infant and under-five mortality, which are direct
measures of child wellbeing and of the success of policy measures aimed at
improving child survival and development. The paper highlights the marked
differences not only in levels, but also in progress in reducing mortality
rates across the CEE/CIS. Whereas some countries of Central Europe have made
impressive progress during the past decade and now rank among those with the
lowest levels of infant mortality in the world, the high levels and slow rates
of reduction in the Caucasus and Central Asian countries are a matter for
concern. The paper also draws attention to the substantial monitoring
challenges which still exist in estimating and tracking infant and child
mortality, particularly in these latter two subregions, despite the recent
official adoption of the internationally recommended definition of ‘live
births’. Official estimates based on civil registry records lead to an
underestimation of the scale of the child survival problem and detract policy
attention from the urgent need to improve the quality of pre and post natal
care, mainly through incentives and training for medical staff. Without
improvements in monitoring, it will be difficult for these countries to devise
appropriate policy responses to correct the problems and remove existing
barriers to improving child survival. |