| Abstract: |
As the experience of European transition countries shows, the opening-up of
their economic systems for international competition and FDIs, deepening
economic liberalization and integration, and on this basis, the realization of
real convergence within the integration block lead to the increased role of
New Trade Theory in explaining their international economic relations. The
processes of Ukraine's economic liberalization and approximation of its level
of economic development to that of the EU-members should stipulate for
transition of Ukrainian economy onto the dimension which explains industrial
and trade relations through the prism of the New Trade Theory postulates
coupled with Traditional Trade Theory principles. This article explores the
position of Ukraine in the intra-industry trade with its main trade partners
and problems of measuring the homogeneity degree of Ukraine’s trade structure
and the trade structures of its trade partners as well as its potential
reciprocal demand within the regional EU and SEA integration blocks. The
empirical analysis reveals that inasmuch as consumer preferences in Ukraine
differ from those of its two SEA-partners (Russia and Kazakhstan), their
disposition to intensify intra-regional trade relations with Ukraine in the
future would be reduced. The SEA countries would rather prefer to expand their
integrated export potential (for example, by forming big oligopolistic
financial and industrial groups in the mining, metallurgy, heavy engineering,
aircraft and space industries on the basis of intra-regional mergers and
acquisitions, thus enjoying external economies of scale) and satisfy their
individual importing wishes on the markets of third countries in compliance
with the postulates of the Traditional Trade Theory. Nevertheless, it is
believed that intra-industry trade of Ukraine would develop optimally under
deepening of its industrial and trade relations with advanced industrial
countries, which have objectively reached the highest level of international
specialization and product differentiation. In view of the optimization of
their reciprocal demand, advanced industrial countries would try to pull the
Ukrainian economy towards European economic area in order to realize their
trade and investment interests. FDIs turned Ukraine into an increasingly
export-oriented economy due to homogenous products. At the same time, the
influence of FDIs on Ukrainian imports of differentiated goods tends to
decrease significantly. This means that there still is no effect of increasing
complementarity between imports and FDIs, which – under condition of
transition – is responsible for structural market changes, saturation of
domestic market with differentiated products and as a result for development
of intra-industry trade. |