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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Eirik Lund Sagen and Marina Tsygankova (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Gazprom, the dominant gas company in Russia, is widely believed to be the key supplier of gas to Europe in the foreseeable future. However, there are numerous uncertainties and challenges within the Russian and European gas industry that may alter the allocation of Gazprom´s gas sales between domestic and export markets. In this paper we use both theoretical and numerical models to study potential effects on Russian gas exports from changes in Russian domestic gas prices and the production capacities in 2015. We also investigate whether the liberalization of the European gas markets may provide incentives for Gazprom to induce monopoly power in its export markets. Our main findings suggest that both increased domestic gas prices and sufficient production capacities are vital to maintain Gazprom´s market share in Europe over the next decade. At low domestic prices, Gazprom may even have difficulties to carry out its long-term export commitments. However, if export possibilities are ample due to both lower domestic demand at higher prices and high overall production capacities, a large share of spot trades in Europe may encourage Gazprom to exercise market power in its export markets. |
| Keywords: | Russia; Natural gas; production capacity; export; Western Europe; price; numerical model |
| JEL: | F17 D42 Q31 Q38 |
| Date: | 2006–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:445&r=cis |
| By: | J. David Brown; John S. Earle; Vladimir Gimpelson; Rostislav Kapeliushnikov; Hartmut Lehmann; Álmos Telegdy; Irina Vantu; Ruxandra Visan; Alexandru Voicu |
| Abstract: | This paper looks behind the standard, publicly available employment and unemployment statistics that studies of transition economy labor markets have typically relied upon. We analyze microdata on detailed labor force survey responses in Russia, Romania, and Estonia to measure nonstandard, boundary forms and alternative definitions of labor force status. Our estimates show that measured employment and unemployment rates are quite sensitive to definition, particularly in the treatment of household production (subsistence agriculture), unpaid family helpers, and discouraged workers, while the categories of part-time work and other forms of marginal attachment are still relatively unimportant. We find that tweaking the official definitions in apparently minor ways can produce alternative employment rates that are sharply higher in Russia but much lower in Romania and slightly lower in Estonia, and alternative unemployment rates that are sharply higher in Romania and moderately higher in Estonia and Russia. |
| Keywords: | employment, unemployment, Estonia, Romania, Russia |
| JEL: | J21 |
| Date: | 2006–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:bworkp:0602&r=cis |