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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Thomas Cool (1991); Jan Tinbergen (1991); Thomas Colignatus (Thomas Cool Consultancy & Econometrics, 2005) |
| Abstract: | When cleaning up my archives I came across a short article of April 1991 co-authored with Jan Tinbergen, on what the Soviet Union might learn from OECD countries in economics and politics. The article apparently never got published, partly since the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991. Jan Tinbergen died in 1994. Reading the article again in 2005 shows that some arguments still have value. In 2005, an advice, purely my own now, would be that Russia and the other republics of the former Soviet Union apply for membership of the European Union. |
| JEL: | A00 |
| Date: | 2005–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0506003&r=cis |
| By: | Goriaev, Alexei; Sonin, Konstantin |
| Abstract: | The Yukos affair, a high-profile story of the state-led assault on a private Russian company, provides an excellent opportunity for an inquiry into the nature of company-specific political risks in emerging markets. News associated primarily with law enforcement agencies’ actions against company’s managers, not formally related to the company itself, caused significant negative abnormal returns for Yukos. The results are robust and not driven by a few major events, such as the arrests of Yukos’ top managers and shareholders. Stocks of less transparent private Russian companies have been more sensitive to Yukos-related events, especially employee-related charges by the law enforcement agencies. The situation was different for less transparent government-owned companies such as the world-largest natural gas producer Gazprom: they appear to be significantly less sensitive to these events. Actions of regulatory agencies have had predominantly industry-wide impact, whereas law-enforcement agencies’ actions affected shares of large private companies, especially those were privatized in the notorious loans-for-shares privatization auctions. |
| Keywords: | company specific political risk; event study; oil; privatization; Russian stock market |
| Date: | 2005–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5076&r=cis |
| By: | Brown, J David; Earle, John S |
| Abstract: | We analyse the impact of privatization on multifactor productivity (MFP) using long panel data for nearly the universe of initially state-owned manufacturing firms in four economies. Controlling for firm and industry-year fixed effects and employing a wide variety of measurement approaches, we estimate that majority privatization raises MFP about 28% in Romania, 22% in Hungary, and 3% in Ukraine, with some variation across specifications, while in Russia it lowers it about 4%. Privatization to foreign rather than domestic investors has a larger impact (about 44%) and is much more consistent across countries. The positive effects emerge within a year in Hungary, Romania, and Ukraine and continue to grow thereafter, but are still ambiguous even after 5 years in Russia. Pre-privatization MFP exceeds that of firms remaining state-owned in all countries, implying that cross-sectional estimates overstate privatization effects. The patterns of the estimated effects cast doubt on a number of explanations for ‘when privatization works’. |
| Date: | 2004–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4791&r=cis |
| By: | Sabirianova Peter, Klara Z; Svejnar, Jan; Terrell, Katherine |
| Abstract: | Economic development implies that the efficiency of firms in developing countries is approaching that of firms in advanced economies. We examine the extent of this convergence in the Czech Republic and Russia, economies that represent alternative models of implementing development policies, often referred to as the Washington Consensus, that have promoted privatization, competition and foreign investment. We also test hypotheses positing that only firms near the efficiency frontier benefit from these policies and catch up. Using 1992-2000 panel data on virtually all industrial firms in each country, we find that privatization to domestic owners did not markedly improve the efficiency of firms; domestic firms are not catching up to the (world) efficiency standard given by foreign-owned firms; and the distance of the Russian firms to the efficiency frontier is much larger than that of the Czech firms and continued to grow for most firms beyond 1997 while remaining constant in the Czech Republic. Domestic firms closer to the frontier are not more likely to catch up than firms further from the frontier although foreign firms do exhibit this behaviour. Foreign-owned firms are increasingly displacing domestic firms in the top deciles of the overall distribution of efficiency, due in part to slower ‘learning’ by domestic firms, higher efficiency of foreign startups, and foreigners’ acquisitions of more efficient domestic firms. The two alternative implementations of the Washington Consensus policies have thus not enabled domestic firms to start catching up to the world standard although the Central European model. |
| Keywords: | convergence; Czech Republic; economic development; efficiency; foreign direct investment; frontier; ownership; productivity; Russia; Washington Consensus |
| JEL: | C33 D20 G32 L20 |
| Date: | 2005–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4868&r=cis |
| By: | Ainura Uzagalieva |
| Abstract: | The ideal measure of inflation should reflect long-run price movements driven by actual demand in the economy and exclude short-term supply shocks. Considering that the CPI does not correspond to such a measure, the purpose of this research is to analyze alternative methods of core (or underlying) inflation and to choose a method suitable for measuring core inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic. The results can be useful for proper monetary policy reaction to inflationary shifts in the Kyrgyz Republic. |
| Keywords: | Kyrgyz Republic, inflation, core inflation, monetary policy, smoothing, optimality criteria. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2005–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp261&r=cis |
| By: | Sadek Boussena (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la production et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la production et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | The reforms and privatisation programmes of the 1990s structured the Russian oil industry around a few large national and private companies. This organisational structure poses some questions in respect of the Russian authorities will to take back the oil sector. Three factors may explain this evolution. First, the Russian authorities want to ensure the long-term future of the oil industry by encouraging new strategies in exploration. Second, the government can use the oil sector to support economic growth. This would involve sharing out the rent in a different manner. Third, and it is e new but important factor, the State intends to use Russia's oil power in this international relationships with the United States, Europe and Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, and India). The future of the Russian oil industry has some importance for the stability of the international oil market. Could Russia produce 12 Mb/d and challenging the dominant position of the Saudi Arabia? |
| Keywords: | industrie pétrolière, Russie, droits de propriété, accès aux ressources, politique énergétique, politique internationale, réforme du marché |
| Date: | 2005–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00003938_v1&r=cis |