By: |
Bent Jesper Christensen (Aarhus University, School of Economics and Management, Bartholins Allé 10, Aarhus, Denmark & CREATES);
Petra Posedel (University of Zagreb) |
Abstract: |
We study the risk premium and leverage effect in the S&P500 market using the
stochastic volatility-in-mean model of Barndor¤-Nielsen & Shephard (2001). The
Merton (1973, 1980) equilibrium asset pricing condition linking the
conditional mean and conditional variance of discrete time returns is
reinterpreted in terms of the continuous time model. Tests are per- formed on
the risk-return relation, the leverage effect, and the overidentifying zero
intercept restriction in the Merton condition. Results are compared across
alternative volatility proxies, in particular, realized volatility from
high-frequency (5-minute) returns, implied Black-Scholes volatility backed out
from observed option prices, model-free implied volatility (VIX), and
staggered bipower variation. Our results are consistent with a positive
risk-return relation and a significant leverage effect, whereas an additional
overidentifying zero intercept condition is rejected. We also show that these
inferences are sensitive to the exact timing of the chosen volatility proxy.
Robustness of the conclusions is verified in bootstrap experiments. |
Keywords: |
Financial leverage effect, implied volatility, realized volatility, risk-return relation, stochastic volatility, VIX |
JEL: |
G13 L12 |
Date: |
2010–09–01 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2010-50&r=cfn |