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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Bouët, Antoine (CEPII, Paris); Edo, Anthony (CEPII, Paris); Emlinger, Charlotte (CEPII, Paris) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022. We use the content of each candidate's manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election. This index shows a significant increase in the anti-globalization positions of candidates, and a growing anti-globalization vote beyond the far right. We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them. We also find that imports have different effects depending on the products imported. While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it. |
| Keywords: | voting, trade, immigration, political economy |
| JEL: | D72 F6 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17353 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer; Jacob Edenhofer; Prashant Garg |
| Abstract: | Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline, including homelessness and crime, boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83, 000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism. |
| Keywords: | local economic conditions, populism, high-street vacancies, spatial externalities |
| JEL: | Z13 R23 D72 C83 P36 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11325 |
| By: | Hessami, Zohal (Ruhr University Bochum); Schirner, Sebastian (Ruhr University Bochum) |
| Abstract: | We study whether the arrival of a new immigrant wave changes natives' acceptance of former immigrants and their descendants. We exploit the 2015 European refugee crisis and the context of German open-list local council elections where voting for immigrant-origin candidates represents a consequential revealed preference. We combine hand-collected candidate-level election data with administrative asylum seeker data. Continuous difference-in-differences estimations (based on municipal %∆ in asylum seekers) reveal that immigrant-origin candidates receive more votes the more asylum seekers arrived locally. This shift in social group boundaries is driven by candidates with a Southern/Eastern European origin being culturally similar to Germans. |
| Keywords: | immigration, immigrant-origin candidates, local elections, social acceptance, cultural similarity |
| JEL: | D72 F22 J11 J15 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17343 |
| By: | Panu Poutvaara; Andreas Graefe |
| Abstract: | Women are severely underrepresented in American politics, especially among Republicans. This underrepresentation may result from women being less willing to run for office, from voter bias against women, or from political structures that make it more difficult for women to compete. Here we show how support for female candidates varies by voters’ party affiliation and gender. We conducted experimental elections in which participants made their vote choices based solely on politicians’ faces. When choosing between female and male candidates, Democrats, and especially Democratic women, preferred female candidates, while Republicans were equally likely to choose female and male candidates. These patterns held after controlling for respondents’ education, age, and political knowledge, and for candidates’ age, attractiveness, and perceived conservatism. Our findings suggest that voter bias against women cannot explain women’s underrepresentation. On the contrary, American voters appear ready to further narrow the gender gap in politics. |
| Keywords: | gender, elections, gender discrimination, political candidates, redistribution |
| JEL: | D72 J16 H23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11414 |
| By: | Di Cocco, Jessica (European University Institute); Levi, Eugenio (Link Campus University); Mariani, Rama Dasi (Roma Tre University); Stillman, Steven (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | Existing research has identified several economic and cultural determinants of populist voting. We focus on a related explanation: whether populist leaders are able to capitalize on a sense of distrust between individuals. There is currently limited causal evidence on the relationship between interpersonal trust and support for populist parties, and the underlying mechanisms driving this relationship are not well understood. Using three distinct causal identification strategies, each grounded in different assumptions, we find consistent evidence that a deficit in trust significantly bolsters support for populist political parties throughout Europe. Notably, this influence extends beyond ideological boundaries, encompassing both far-right and far-left populist parties. |
| Keywords: | populism, trust, immigration |
| JEL: | D72 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17342 |
| By: | Sigurd S. Arntzen; Jon H. Fiva; Rune J. Sørensen |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effectiveness of democratic systems in preventing individuals with criminal backgrounds from holding political office. Unlike many countries, Norway has no legal restrictions against felons running for office. We analyze local election candidates from 2003 to 2019, paired with administrative records of criminal offenses. We demonstrate that individuals with criminal records are systematically penalized at every stage of their political careers. Candidates are less likely to have criminal records than the general population, with elected officials less likely to have criminal backgrounds than their unelected peers, and mayors being the most lawful. Through a series of counterfactual exercises, we demonstrate that the most significant reduction in criminal involvement occurs at the nomination stage, especially within established local party organizations. |
| Keywords: | political selection, criminal backgrounds, voter behaviour, political parties |
| JEL: | D72 D73 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11412 |