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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Rodrigo Martins (GEMF/ Faculty of Economics University of Coimbra, Portugal); Francisco José Veiga (NIPE/ University of Minho, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout. |
| Keywords: | Vote Shares, Turnout, Legislative Elections, Portugal. |
| JEL: | D72 H7 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2013-20.&r=cdm |
| By: | Greene, William H.; Gillman, Max; Harris, Mark N. |
| Abstract: | We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on inflated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle Inflated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a specification test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model affords the econometrician considerable flexibility with respect to modeling the impact of different forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our findings, we argue, reveal MPC members. asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy committee, voting, discrete data, uncertainty, tempered equations |
| JEL: | C3 E50 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2013-05&r=cdm |
| By: | Poulsen, Jonas (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The African National Congress (ANC) can look back on eighty years of struggle which resulted in the liberation of black Africans, the creation of a democratic constitution and free elections. However, the last twenty years of ANC rule has been criticized for the failure to bring higher living standards for the formerly oppressed. With the party's dominance and the challanges facing South Africa in mind, I estimate the effect of ANC power in municipalities on economic, social and budgetary outcomes. To estimate the causal effect of the party, this paper uses an instrumental variable approach developed by Freier & Odendahl (2012) and a regression discontinuity design. Taken together, the results point to an adverse effect of the party: less is spent on repairs and water provision which in turn may explain why ANC power seems to lower the share of individuals who have access to piped water and electricity. Further, more resources are used on municipal employees and the councillors themselves, while I find suggestive evidence of an increase in the poverty rate due to the party. Lastly, although being their major political support, we cannot conclude that the ANC affects black African's living standards. From the IV analysis, I find indications that oppositional parties many times have a more positive impact on outcomes as they gain power at the expence of the ANC. |
| Keywords: | ANC; party effects; instrumental variable; regression discontinuity; South Africa |
| JEL: | H11 N47 O12 |
| Date: | 2013–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2013_017&r=cdm |
| By: | Matsuki, Jun; Tadenuma, Koichi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider a natural procedure of decision-making, called a “Grouping Choice Method”, which leads to a kind of bounded rational choices. In this procedure a decision-maker (DM) first divides the set of available alternatives into some groups and in each group she chooses the best element (winner) for her preference relation. Then, among the winners in the first round, she selects the best one as her final choice. We characterize Grouping Choice Methods in three different ways. First, we show that a choice function is a Grouping Choice Method if and only if it is a Rational Shortlist Method (Manzini and Mariotti, 2007) in which the first rationale is transitive. Second, Grouping Choice Methods are axiomatically characterized by means of a new axiom called Elimination, in addition to two well-known axioms, Expansion and Weak WARP (Manzini and Mariotti, 2007). Third, Grouping Choice Methods are also characterized by a weak version of Path Independence. |
| Keywords: | grouping of alternatives, preference, bounded rationality |
| JEL: | D01 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:econdp:2013-08&r=cdm |
| By: | Richard Sullivan; Zhu Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the diffusion and impact of a cost-saving technological innovation—Internet banking. Our theory characterizes the process through which the innovation is adopted sequentially by large and small banks, and how the adoption affects bank size distribution. Applying the theory to an empirical study of Internet banking diffusion among banks across 50 U.S. states, we examine the technological, economic and institutional factors governing the process. The empirical findings allow us to disentangle the interrelationship between Internet banking adoption and change in average bank size, and explain the variation in diffusion rates across geographic regions. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-10&r=cdm |
| By: | Marcela Ibanez (Georg-August University Göttingen); Elke Schaffland (Georg-August University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | In order to deal with crises, organizations often bring expert leaders from outside. However, relying in an outside leader can result in decreased performance of the organization. In this paper, we use an experiment to investigate the role of identity and skills of the outside leader on the performance of the organization. Our results indicate that outside leaders are less committed than inside leaders and that group members cooperate less with an outsider than an inside leader. |
| Keywords: | Social Identity; Leadership; Public Good Game; Lab Experiment |
| Date: | 2013–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:149&r=cdm |
| By: | Paula Andrea Potes Ruiz (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes); Bernard Kamsu Foguem (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes); Daniel Noyes (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes) |
| Abstract: | Distributed environments, technological evolution, outsourcing market and information technology (IT) are factors that considerably influence current and future industrial maintenance management. Repairing and maintaining the plants and installations requires a better and more sophisticated skill set and continuously updated knowledge. Today, maintenance solutions involve increasing the collaboration of several experts to solve complex problems. These solutions imply changing the requirements and practices for maintenance; thus, conceptual models to support multidisciplinary expert collaboration in decision making are indispensable. The objectives of this work are as follows: (i) knowledge formalization of domain vocabulary to improve the communication and knowledge sharing among a number of experts and technical actors with Conceptual Graphs (CGs) formalism, (ii) multi-expert knowledge management with the Transferable Belief Model (TBM) to support collaborative decision making, and (iii) maintenance problem solving with a variant of the Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) mechanism with a process of solving new problems based on the solutions of similar past problems and integrating the experts' beliefs. The proposed approach is applied for the maintenance management of the illustrative case study. |
| Keywords: | Collaborative decision making;Experienced knowledge;Transferable belief model;Case-based reasoning;Maintenance management |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00861829&r=cdm |
| By: | Salustri, Andrea |
| Abstract: | The article sheds light on virtual networks’ capability of driving landscape changes, both at epistemological level and at geographical level. “Living in” the landscape brings out the main drivers of change at individual level, while the ICTs are offering complementary places, with respect to those ones already existing, for increasing people’s role in sharing values and meanings. Then, common visions might emerge and “inform” landscape policies, indirectly influencing the meaning of wellbeing. Specifically, the socioeconomic theory might constitute a missing link between regulatory issues and technological achievements, enhancing and combining the new opportunities for participation offered by the European Landscape Convention, and by the widespread diffusion of social networks on the web. Indeed, “living in” the landscape inspires a plurality of visions that people are able to describe and share on the web or send directly to the interested institutions. Geographers might collect these issues and explore the landscape by living in it in order to produce “ethic visions”. Integrated with political and economic issues using the Regulation Impact Analysis (RIA), their contents might contribute to inform landscape transformation policies. Landscape policies might be participated also in the implementation phase, involving people in the fund raising activities and delegating the realization of some interventions to the spontaneous action of the interested citizens and firms. More participation at political and at social level might strengthen the sense of community reinforcing the narratives that connect the human and natural elements of landscape, integrating equity and sustainability in the traditional meaning of wellbeing. |
| Keywords: | European Landscape Convention, participation, crowdfunding, crowdsourcing |
| JEL: | R58 Z13 |
| Date: | 2013–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:49864&r=cdm |
| By: | Hellström, Jörgen (Umeå School of Business and Economics); Zetterdahl, Emma (Department of Economics, Umeå School of Business and Economics); Hanes, Niklas (Department of Economics, Umeå School of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper new and detailed empirical evidence on the impact of family on individuals’ stock market participation decision is provided. Since influence is likely to vary systematically over different types of individuals the heterogeneous effect of social interaction, in a setting including both community as well as within-family effects, is further examined. The main results indicate that individuals’ likelihood for subsequent participation increases (decreases) following positive (negative) parental and partner stock market experiences. The effect of social interaction is further found to be of relatively greater importance for individuals with relatively lower levels of financial literacy and for individuals with an on average higher level of interpersonal trust. In terms of gender, both male and female participation is positively affected by family influence, while community effects mainly pertain to males. |
| Keywords: | Family effects; Investor behavior; Peer effect; Social interaction; Social influence; Stock market participation |
| JEL: | D83 G11 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0865&r=cdm |
| By: | Andersson, Ola (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Holm, Håkan J. (Lund University); Tyran, Jean-Robert (University of Vienna); Wengström, Erik (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We study risk taking on behalf of others, both with and without potential losses. A large-scale incentivized experiment is conducted with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population. On average, decision makers take the same risks for other people as for themselves when losses are excluded. In contrast, when losses are possible, decisions on behalf of others are more risky. Using structural estimation, we show that this increase in risk stems from a decrease in loss aversion when others are affected by their choices. |
| Keywords: | Risk taking; Loss aversion; Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D81 G02 |
| Date: | 2013–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0976&r=cdm |
| By: | Brenzel, Hanna (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Gartner, Hermann (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Schnabel, Claus |
| Abstract: | "Using a representative establishment dataset, this paper is the first to analyze the incidence of wage posting and wage bargaining in the matching process from the employer's side. We show that both modes of wage determination coexist in the German labor market, with about two-thirds of hirings being characterized by wage posting. Wage posting dominates in the public sector, in larger firms, in firms covered by collective agreements, and in part-time and fixed-term contracts. Job-seekers who are unemployed, out of the labor force or just finished their apprenticeship are also less likely to get a chance of negotiating. Wage bargaining is more likely for more-educated applicants and in jobs with special requirements as well as in tight regional labor markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | E24 J30 J63 M51 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201315&r=cdm |
| By: | Aurélien Baillon; Han Bleichrodt; Alessandra Cillo |
| Abstract: | We performed a new test of transitivity based on individual measurements of the main intransitive choice models in decision under uncertainty. Our test is tailor-made and, therefore, more likely to detect violations of transitivity than previous tests. In spite of this, we observed only few intransitivities and we could not reject the hypothesis that these were due to random error. A possible explanation for the poor predictive performance of the intransitive choice models is that they only allow for interactions between acts, but exclude within-act interactions by retaining the assumption that preferences are separable overstates of nature. Prospect theory, which relaxes separability but retains transitivity, predicted choices significantly better than the nontransitive choice models. We conclude that descriptively realistic models need to allow for within-act interactions, but may retain transitivity. Subject classifications: Utility/preference: Estimation. Decision analysis: Risk. Area of review: Decision Analysis. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:496&r=cdm |