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on Central Banking |
| By: | Ricardo Correa; Teodora Paligorova; Horacio Sapriza; Andrei Zlate |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of monetary policy on bilateral cross-border bank flows using the BIS Locational Banking Statistics between 1995 and 2014. We find that monetary policy in the source countries is an important determinant of cross-border bank flows. In addition, we find evidence in favor of a cross-border bank portfolio channel. As relatively tighter monetary conditions in source countries erode the net worth and collateral values of domestic borrowers, banks reallocate their claims toward safer foreign counterparties. The cross-border reallocation of credit is more pronounced for banks in source countries with weaker financial sectors, which are likely to be more risk averse. Lastly, the reallocation is directed toward borrowers in safer countries, such as advanced economies or economies with an investment grade sovereign rating. By highlighting the effect of domestic monetary policy on foreign credit, this study enhances our understanding of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through global banks. |
| Keywords: | Bank lending ; Cross-border bank flows ; Monetary policy ; Portfolio rebalancing |
| JEL: | E52 F34 F36 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1241&r=cba |
| By: | Juan Andres Espinosa Torres; Sebastian Sanin Restrepo; Sebastian Sanin-Restrepo |
| Abstract: | This paper test the presence of the consumption-wealth channel on the trans- mission of monetary policy on economies following the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework. Combining a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method-ology and a policy counterfactual exercise, this channel is modelled for 27economies divided into four implementing window dates: first, early, inter-mediate and recent implementers. Results show that effects derived from this channel are most significant for those economies that implemented IT earlier, with some particular exceptions among the other groups. This suggest that long-run stability and definition of IT regimes play a significant role to make monetary policy transmit to the economy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, inflation targeting, asset prices. |
| JEL: | E52 E42 E31 |
| Date: | 2018–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000416:017012&r=cba |
| By: | Bianchi, Javier (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Mondragon, Jorge (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the inability to use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization leaves a government more vulnerable to a rollover crisis. We study a sovereign default model with self-fulfilling rollover crises, foreign currency debt, and nominal rigidities. When the government lacks monetary autonomy, lenders anticipate that the government will face a severe recession in the event of a liquidity crisis, and are therefore more prone to run on government bonds. By contrast, a government with monetary autonomy can stabilize the economy and can easily remain immune to a rollover crisis. In a quantitative application, we find that the lack of monetary autonomy played a central role in making the Eurozone vulnerable to a rollover crisis. A lender of last resort can help ease the costs from giving up monetary independence. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt crises; Rollover risk; Monetary unions |
| JEL: | E4 E5 F34 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:755&r=cba |
| By: | Eickmeier, Sandra; Kolb, Benedikt; Prieto, Esteban |
| Abstract: | Bank capital regulations are intended to enhance financial stability in the long run, but may, in the meanwhile, involve costs for the real economy. To examine these costs we propose a narrative index of aggregate tightenings in regulatory US bank capital requirements from 1979 to 2008. Anticipation effects are explicitly taken into account and found to matter. In response to a tightening in capital requirements, banks temporarily reduce business and real estate lending, which temporarily lowers investment, consumption, housing activity and production. A decline in financial and macroeconomic risk helps sustain spending in the medium run. Monetary policy also cushions negative effects of capital requirement tightenings on the economy. |
| Keywords: | Narrative Approach,Bank Capital Requirements,Local Projections |
| JEL: | G28 G18 C32 E44 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:442018&r=cba |
| By: | Rod Tyers (Business School, University of Western Australia and Research School of Economics, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University); Yixiao Zhou (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School, Curtin University) |
| Abstract: | Concern about “lost inflation” has been heightened recently by the apparent inability of central banks in the largest democracies, a decade beyond the GFC, to restore their “safe” CPI inflation ranges. This paper examines the deflationary forces against which monetary policy is now aligned, namely migration, the race to the bottom in capital taxation, and biased technical change, and assesses the consequences looking forward. While inflation rates have edged lower over the past two decades the most important change has been declines in long maturity yields, initially driven by strong growth in high-saving Asia and by redistribution in the advanced economies to high-saving households, and bolstered subsequently by return pessimism due to low growth in measured productivity. Ironically, today’s low rates also stem from conventional monetary policy failure, expanded central bank balance sheets and the resulting global “bond bubble”. Future monetary policy effectiveness as deflationary forces continue will depend in the advanced economies on government interventions to address underlying inequality and financial market “normalisation”. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, productivity, automation, income distribution, tax, transfers, general equilibrium analysis |
| JEL: | D33 E52 J11 O33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:18-01&r=cba |
| By: | Goodhead, Robert; Kolb, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | Using federal funds futures data, we show the importance of surprise communication as a component of monetary policy for U.S. macro variables, both before and after 2008. While Gürkaynak et al. (2005) stress the importance of monetary policy communication for asset prices, much of the subsequent VAR literature attributes all effects of monetary policy on macro variables to surprise changes in the policy rate. Instead, we distinguish between monetary policy action and "communication shocks" (surprise announcements about future policy moves), both orthogonal to internal Fed information. To do so,we use a decomposition of futures price movements exploiting variation across contract maturities. In a monthly sample from 1994 to 2008, our results indicate that it is mainly communication shocks - as opposed to actual rate-change surprises - that affect production in the ways traditionally associated with monetary policy shocks.We also use Eurodollar futures to cover the zero-lower bound period and find strong effects on inflation for long-horizon communication shocks. |
| Keywords: | Federal Funds Futures,FOMC,Monetary Policy,VAR Model |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G23 C32 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:462018&r=cba |
| By: | Gunda-Alexandra Detmers; Özer Karagedikli; Richhild Moessner |
| Abstract: | Every monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is accompanied by a written statement about the state of the economy and the policy outlook, but only every second decision by a published interest rate forecast. We exploit this difference to study the relative influences of qualitative and quantitative forward guidance. We find that announcements that include an interest rate forecast lead to very similar market reactions across the yield curve as announcements that only include written statements. We interpret our results as implying that central bank communication is important, but that the exact form of that communication is less critical. Our results are also consistent with market participants understanding the conditional nature of the RBNZ interest rate forecasts. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, forward guidance, interest rate forecasts |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 G12 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7314&r=cba |
| By: | Gavin Goy; Cars Homme; Kostas Mavromatis |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous. In particular, we take a stylized New Keynesian model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households. The central bank uses a bivariate VAR to forecast, not taking into account the time-variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations. In this framework, we extend the central bank's toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts (Delphic guidance) and the commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate (Odyssean guidance). We find that both Delphic and Odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap. Even though Odyssean guidance alone appears more powerful, we find it to increase ex post macroeconomic volatility and thus reduce welfare. |
| Keywords: | Forward Guidance; Heterogeneous Beliefs; Bounded Rationality; Central Bank Learning |
| JEL: | E12 E58 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:614&r=cba |
| By: | Tommaso Mancini Griffoli; Maria Soledad Martinez Peria; Itai Agur; Anil Ari; John Kiff; Adina Popescu; Celine Rochon |
| Abstract: | Digitalization is reshaping economic activity, shrinking the role of cash, and spurring new digital forms of money. Central banks have been pondering wheter and how to adapt. One possibility is central bank digital currency (CBDC)-- a widely accessible digital form of fiat money that could be legal tender. This discussion note proposes a conceptual framework to assess the case for CBDC adoption from the perspective of users and central banks. It discusses possible CBDC designs, and explores potential benefits and costs, with a focus on the impact on monetary policy, financial stability, and integrity. This note also surveys research and pilot studies on CBDC by central banks around the world. |
| Keywords: | Money;Central banking;Currencies;Monetary policy;Money; Central Bank Digital Currencies; Monetary Policy |
| Date: | 2018–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:18/08&r=cba |
| By: | Ricardo Lagos; Shengxing Zhang |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of monetary exchange in bilateral over-the-counter markets to study the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and financial liquidity. The theory predicts asset prices carry a speculative premium that reflects the asset's marketability and depends on monetary policy and the market microstructure where it is traded. These liquidity considerations imply a positive correlation between the real yield on stocks and the nominal yield on Treasury bonds—an empirical observation long regarded anomalous. |
| JEL: | D83 E31 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25239&r=cba |
| By: | Rod Tyers (Business School, University of Western Australia and Research School of Economics, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University); Yixiao Zhou (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School, Curtin University) |
| Abstract: | Proximity to short yield zero lower bounds has challenged the inflation targeting central banks of the advanced regions. Central to this development are three-decade declining trends in long yields and underlying real, equilibrium interest rates that have flattened yield curves, restricting “normalisation” and adding deflationary pressure by boosting demand for portfolio money. Inflationary forces, such as fiscal deficits, industrial protection and resurgent regional growth, have proved comparatively weak. In this paper global modelling is used to show that key deflationary forces in these regions include automation, the race to the bottom in capital taxation and immigration. Each is shown to redistribute income so as to expand the welfare gap between the low-skilled and capital owners by 2.5 to 3.5 per cent per year. The high saving rates of capital owners depress real equilibrium rates and their expanding portfolios demand monetary expansion. These forces ensure that the challenges of macro stabilisation and distributional policy making are both intertwined and urgent. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, deflation, productivity, automation, income distribution, tax, transfers, general equilibrium analysis |
| JEL: | D33 E52 J11 O33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:18-04&r=cba |
| By: | Goncharenko, Roman; Ongena, Steven; Rauf, Asad |
| Abstract: | Most regulators grant contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) the status of equity. The theory, however, suggests that these securities can distort incentives via inducing debt overhang and risk shifting. In this paper, we therefore theoretically model how the degree of this distortion varies with bank risk. Our model predicts that riskier banks face higher debt overhang from CoCos. Next, analyzing a comprehensive database of CoCo issuance in Europe, we empirically test the predictions of our model. We find that banks with lower risk are more likely to issue CoCos than their riskier counterparts. Since in the current regulatory framework of Basel III banks are expected to raise equity prior to CoCo conversion, future debt overhang makes CoCos an expensive source of capital. Thus, riskier banks will opt for equity issuance over CoCos. |
| Keywords: | Bank Capital Structure; Basel III; CoCos; Contingent Convertible Bonds; Debt overhang |
| JEL: | G01 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13344&r=cba |
| By: | Adrian, Tobias; Kiff, John; Shin, Hyun Song |
| Abstract: | The financial system has undergone far-reaching changes since the global financial crisis of 2008. We cast those changes in terms of shifts in the manner in which financial intermediaries manage their balance sheets. We also discuss the regulatory reform agenda, and we review the impact of regulations on market liquidity and credit availability. The current evidence suggests that the financial system has become safer, at limited unintended cost. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13350&r=cba |
| By: | Stavrakeva, Vania (London Business School); Tang, Jenny (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | We document that during the Global Recession, US monetary policy easings triggered the “exorbitant duty” of the United States, the issuer of the world’s dominant currency, by causing a dollar appreciation and a transfer of wealth from the United States to the rest of the world. This dollar appreciation runs counter to the predictions of standard macroeconomic models and works through two channels: (i) a flight-to-safety effect which lowered the expected excess returns of holding safe US government debt relative to foreign debt and (ii) lowered expected future inflation in the United States relative to other countries. We show that the signaling channel of monetary policy, whereby US policy easings are perceived to signal weaker future growth, can reconcile the novel empirical findings that we document. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates; currency risk; risk premia; monetary policy; forward guidance; Federal Reserve information; interest rates; Global Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | E52 F31 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:18-10&r=cba |
| By: | Knut Are Aastveit (Norges Bank & Centre for Applied Macro and Petroleum Economics, BI Norwegian Business School); André K. Anundsen (Norges Bank) |
| Abstract: | The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the nature of the shock – expansionary versus contractionary – and on local housing supply elasticities. These findings are established based on a panel of 263 US metropolitan areas. We test and find supporting evidence for the hypothesis that expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices when supply elasticities are low. Our results also suggest that contractionary shocks are orthogonal to supply elasticities, as implied by downward rigidity of housing supply. A standard theoretical conjecture is that contractionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than expansionary shocks, as long as supply is not perfectly inelastic. For areas with high housing supply elasticity, our results are in line with this conjecture. However, for areas with an inelastic housing supply, we find that expansionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than contractionary shocks. We provide evidence that the direction of the asymmetry is related to a momentum effect that is more pronounced when house prices are increasing than when they are falling. |
| Keywords: | House prices, Heterogeneity, Monetary policy, Non-linearity, Supply elasticities |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E52 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2018-08&r=cba |
| By: | Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Olivei, Giovanni P. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Tootell, Geoffrey M. B. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Would a more open and regular evaluation of the monetary policy framework improve policy in the United States? Even when considering a relatively short timeframe that spans the 1960s to the present, it is possible to point to many significant changes to the framework. Some of the changes were precipitated by acute economic conditions, while others were considered and implemented only gradually as a response to long-standing problems with the framework. But the process for evaluating and changing frameworks to date has not always been transparent, and changes have not always been timely. Could a more formal, and open, review improve how well we adhere to our current framework? Could transitions to a new framework be made more effectively? We conclude that such a review might indeed be beneficial, and outline one possible review process. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy framework; the evolution of monetary policy; FOMC; policy rules |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:18-8&r=cba |