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on Central Banking |
| By: | Michael Woodford |
| Abstract: | I present a generalization of the standard (full-information) model of state-dependent pricing in which decisions about when to review a firm's existing price must be made on the basis of imprecise awareness of current market conditions. The imperfect information is endogenized using a variant of the theory of "rational inattention" proposed by Sims (1998, 2003, 2006). This results in a one-parameter family of models, indexed by the cost of information, which nests both the standard state-dependent pricing model and the Calvo model of price adjustment as limiting cases (corresponding to a zero information cost and an unboundedly large information cost respectively). For intermediate levels of the information cost, the model is equivalent to a "generalized Ss model" with a continuous "adjustment hazard" of the kind proposed by Caballero and Engel (1993a, 1993b), but provides an economic motivation for the hazard function and very specific predictions about its form. For high enough levels of the information cost, the Calvo model of price-setting is found to be a reasonable approximation to the exact equilibrium dynamics, except in the case of (infrequent) large shocks. When the model is calibrated to match the frequency and size distribution of price changes observed in microeconomic data sets, prices are found to be much less flexible than in a full-information state-dependent pricing model, and only about 20 percent more flexible than under a Calvo model with the same average frequency of price adjustment. |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14620&r=cba |
| By: | Patrick J. Kehoe; V. V. Chari; Andrew Atkeson |
| Abstract: | The Ramsey approach to policy analysis finds the best competitive equilibrium given a set of available instruments but is silent about unique implementation, namely, designing policies so that the associated competitive equilibrium is unique. This silence is particularly problematic in monetary policy environments, where many ways of specifying policy lead to indeterminacy. We show that sophisticated policies, which depend on the history of private actions and can differ on and off the equilibrium path, can uniquely implement any desired competitive equilibrium. A large literature has argued that monetary policy should adhere to the Taylor principle to eliminate indeterminacy. We show that adherence to the Taylor principle on these grounds is unnecessary for either determinacy or efficiency. We also show that sophisticated policies are robust to imperfect information. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:419&r=cba |
| By: | Edward S. Knotek II; Stephen Terry |
| Abstract: | We use simulation-based techniques to compare and contrast two methods for solving state-dependent pricing models: discretization, which solves and simulates the model on a grid; and collocation, which relies on Chebyshev polynomials. While both methods produce qualitatively similar results, statistically significant quantitative differences do arise. We present evidence favoring discretization over collocation in this context, given a lack of robustness in the latter. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp08-10&r=cba |
| By: | Michael Dotsey; Andreas Hornstein |
| Abstract: | Currently there is a growing literature exploring the features of optimal monetary policy in New Keynesian models under both commitment and discretion. This literature usually solves for the optimal allocations that are consistent with a rational expectations market equilibrium, but it does not study how the policy can be implemented given the available policy instruments. Recently, however, King and Wolman (2004) have shown that a time-consistent policy cannot be implemented through the control of nominal money balances. In particular, they find that equilibria are not unique under a money stock regime. The authors of this paper find that King and Wolman's conclusion of non-uniqueness of Markov-perfect equilibria is sensitive to the instrument of choice. Surprisingly, if, instead, the monetary authority chooses the nominal interest rate there exists a unique Markov-perfect equilibrium. The authors then investigate under what conditions a time-consistent planner can implement the optimal allocation by just announcing his policy rule in a decentralized setting. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:08-30&r=cba |
| By: | Keith Kuester; Volker Wieland |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the authors aim to design a monetary policy for the euro area that is robust to the high degree of model uncertainty at the start of monetary union and allows for learning about model probabilities. To this end, they compare and ultimately combine Bayesian and worst-case analysis using four reference models estimated with pre-EMU synthetic data. The authors start by computing the cost of insurance against model uncertainty, that is, the relative performance of worst-case or minimax policy versus Bayesian policy. While maximum insurance comes at moderate costs, they highlight three shortcomings of this worst-case insurance policy: (i) prior beliefs that would rationalize it from a Bayesian perspective indicate that such insurance is strongly oriented toward the model with highest baseline losses; (ii) the minimax policy is not as tolerant of small perturbations of policy parameters as the Bayesian policy; and (iii) the minimax policy offers no avenue for incorporating posterior model probabilities derived from data available since monetary union. Thus, the authors propose preferences for robust policy design that reflect a mixture of the Bayesian and minimax approaches. They show how the incoming EMU data may then be used to update model probabilities, and investigate the implications for policy. ; Forthcoming in the Journal of the European Economic Association. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:08-29&r=cba |
| By: | Roberto Billi |
| Abstract: | With inflation and policy interest rates at historically low levels, policymakers show great concern about "downside tail risks" due to a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Low probability or tail events, such as sustained deflation or recession, are disruptive for the economy and can be difficult to resolve. This paper shows that price-level targeting mitigates downside tail risks respect to inflation targeting when policy is conducted through a simple interest-rate rule subject to a zero lower bound. Thus, price-level targeting is a more effective policy framework than inflation targeting for the management of downside tail risks in a low-inflation economy. At the same time, the average performance of the economy is not very different if policy implements price-level targeting instead of inflation targeting through a simple interest-rate rule. Price-level targeting may imply less variability of inflation than inflation targeting because policymakers can shape private-sector expectations about future inflation more effectively by targeting directly the price level path rather than inflation. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp08-09&r=cba |
| By: | Zheng Liu; Daniel F. Waggoner; Tao Zha |
| Abstract: | This study explores theoretical and macroeconomic implications of the self-confirming equilibrium in a standard growth model. When rational expectations are replaced by adaptive expectations, we prove that the self-confirming equilibrium is the same as the steady state rational expectations equilibrium, but that dynamics around the steady state are substantially different between the two equilibria. We show that, in contrast to Williams (2003), the differences are driven mainly by the lack of the wealth effect and the strengthening of the intertemporal substitution effect, not by escapes. As a result, adaptive expectations substantially alter the amplification and propagation mechanisms and allow technology shocks to exert much more impact on macroeconomic variables than do rational expectations. |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emo:wp2003:0803&r=cba |
| By: | Zheng Liu; Daniel F. Waggoner; Tao Zha |
| Abstract: | We study the sources of the Great Moderation by estimating a variety of medium-scale DSGE models that incorporate regime switches in shock variances and in the inflation target. The best-fit model, the one with two regimes in shock variances, gives quantitatively different dynamics in comparison with the benchmark constant-parameter model. Our estimates show that three kinds of shocks accounted for most of the Great Moderation and business-cycle fluctuations: capital depreciation shocks, neutral technology shocks, and wage markup shocks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that changes in the inflation target or shocks in the investment-specific technology played little role in macroeconomic volatility. Moreover, our estimates indicate much less nominal rigidities than those suggested in the literature. |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emo:wp2003:0811&r=cba |
| By: | Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
| Abstract: | With positive trend inflation, the Taylor principle is not enough to guarantee a determinate equilibrium. We provide new theoretical results on restoring determinacy in New Keynesian models with positive trend inflation and combine these with new empirical findings on the Federal Reserve's reaction function before and after the Volcker disinflation to find that 1) while the Fed satisfied the Taylor principle in the pre-Volcker era, the US economy was still subject to self-fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s, 2) while the Fed's response to inflation is not statistically different before and after the Volcker disinflation, the US economy nonetheless moved from indeterminacy to determinacy in this time period, and 3) the change from indeterminacy to determinacy is due to the simultaneous decrease in the response to the output gap, increases in the response to inflation and output growth and the decline in steady-state inflation from the Volcker disinflation. |
| JEL: | C22 E3 E43 E5 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14621&r=cba |
| By: | Glenn Rudebusch; Eric Swanson |
| Abstract: | The term premium on nominal long-term bonds in the standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in macroeconomics is far too small and stable relative to empirical measures obtained from the data--an example of the ''bond premium puzzle.'' However, in models of endowment economies, researchers have been able to generate reasonable term premiums by assuming that investors have recursive Epstein-Zin preferences and face long-run economic risks. We show that introducing Epstein-Zin preferences into a canonical DSGE model can also produce a large and variable term premium without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables. Long-run real and nominal risks further improve the model's ability to fit the data with a lower level of household risk aversion. |
| Keywords: | Interest rates ; Econometric models |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-31&r=cba |
| By: | Alejandro Justiniano; Giorgio E. Primiceri; Andrea Tambalotti |
| Abstract: | Shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are the most important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in US output and hours. Moreover, these disturbances drive prices higher in expansions, like a textbook demand shock. We reach these conclusions by estimating a DSGE model with several shocks and frictions. We also find that neutral technology shocks are not negligible, but their share in the variance of output is only around 25 percent, and even lower for hours. Labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the variation of hours at very low frequencies, but not over the business cycle. Finally, we show that imperfect competition and, to a lesser extent, technological frictions are the key to the transmission of investment shocks in the model. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-08-12&r=cba |
| By: | Jens H. E. Christensen; Jose A. Lopez; Glenn D. Rudebusch |
| Abstract: | Differences between yields on comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so-called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage-free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and inflation risk premiums, although volatile, have been close to zero on average. |
| Keywords: | Inflation (Finance) ; Treasury bonds |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-34&r=cba |
| By: | Zheng Liu; Louis Phaneuf |
| Abstract: | A commonly held view is that nominal rigidities are important for the transmission of monetary policy shocks. We argue that they are also important for understanding the dynamic effects of technology shocks, especially on labor hours, wages, and prices. Based on a dynamic general equilibrium framework, our closed-form solutions reveal that a pure sticky-price model predicts correctly that hours decline following a positive technology shock, but fails to generate the observed gradual rise in the real wage and the near-constance of the nominal wage; a pure sticky-wage model does well in generating slow adjustments in the nominal wage, but it does not generate plausible dynamics of hours and the real wage. A model with both types of nominal rigidities is more successful in replicating the empirical evidence about hours, wages and prices. This finding is robust for a wide range of parameter values, including a relatively small Frisch elasticity of hours and a relatively high frequency of price reoptimization that are consistent with microeconomic evidence. |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emo:wp2003:0812&r=cba |
| By: | Ethan Cohen-Cole; Enrique Martinez-Garcia |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the role of the credit channel of monetary policy in a synthesis model of the economy. Through the use of a well-specified banking sector and a regulatory capital constraint on lending, we provide an alternate mechanism that can potentially explain the periods of asymmetry in monetary policy without appealing to ad-hoc central bank preferences. This is accomplished through the characterization of the external finance premium that includes bank leverage and systemic risk. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbqu:qau08-7&r=cba |
| By: | Reuven Glick; Michael Hutchison |
| Abstract: | In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma—how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China’s monetary policy as the country liberalizes its goods and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth. We estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China’s reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth (consistent with limited sterilization of foreign exchange reserve accumulation) and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy - China |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-32&r=cba |
| By: | Lenno Uusküla |
| Abstract: | Traditional models of monetary transmission such as sticky price and limited participation abstract from firm creation and destruction. Only a few papers look at the empirical effects of the monetary shock on the firm turnover measures. But what can we learn about monetary transmission by including measures for firm turnover into the theoretical and empirical models? Based on a large scale vector autoregressive (VAR) model for the U.S. economy I show that a contractionary monetary policy shock increases the number of business bankruptcy filings and failures, and decreases the creation of firms and net entry. According to the limited participation model, a contractionary monetary shock leads to a drop in the number of firms. On the contrary the same shock in the sticky price model increases the number of firms. Therefore the empirical findings support more the limited participation type of the monetary transmission |
| Keywords: | monetary transmission, limited participation, sticky prices, firm entry, firm bankruptcy, structural VAR |
| JEL: | E32 C32 |
| Date: | 2009–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2008-07&r=cba |
| By: | Wilbert van der Klaauw; Wändi Bruine de Bruin; Giorgio Topa; Simon Potter; Michael Bryan |
| Abstract: | This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly different price concepts. For near-term inflation, the "prices in general" question in the monthly Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers can elicit responses that focus on the most visible prices, such as gasoline or food. Questions on the "rate of inflation" can lead to responses on the prices that U.S. citizens pay in general - an interpretation, or concept, closer to the definition of inflation that economists have in mind; they also lead to both lower levels of reported inflation and to lower disagreement among respondents. In addition, we present results associated with new survey questions that assess the degree of individual uncertainty about future inflation outcomes as well as future expected wage changes. Finally, using the panel dimension of the surveys, we find that individual responses exhibit considerable persistence, both in the expected level of inflation and in forecast uncertainty. Respondents who are more uncertain make larger revisions to their expectations in the next survey. |
| Keywords: | Inflation (Finance) ; Economic indicators ; Economic surveys ; Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:359&r=cba |
| By: | Taeyoung Doh |
| Abstract: | This paper specifies and estimates a long run risks model with inflation by using the nominal term structure data in the United States from 1953 to 2006. The negative correlation between expected inflation and expected consumption growth in conjunction with the Epstein-Zin (1989) recursive preferences generates an upward sloping yield curve and fits the yield curve data better than the alternative specifications. However, the variations of the forward looking components of consumption growth and inflation in the estimated model are much smaller than implied by calibrated parameter values in the previous literature. An extended model with time varying volatilities alleviates this problem. In the extended model, estimated long run risks and volatilities, especially for inflation, are in line with survey data and the estimated inflation volatility explains a significant portion of the time variation of term premium. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp08-11&r=cba |
| By: | Morten L. Bech (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045, USA.); Enghin Atalay (University of Chicago, Department of Economics, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.) |
| Abstract: | We explore the network topology of the federal funds market. This market is important for distributing liquidity throughout the financial system and for the implementation of monetary policy. The recent turmoil in global financial markets underscores its importance. We find that the network is sparse, exhibits the small world phenomenon and is disassortative. Reciprocity tracks the federal funds rate and centrality measures are useful predictors of the interest rate of a loan. JEL Classification: E4, E58, E59, G1. |
| Keywords: | Network, topology, interbank, money market. |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080986&r=cba |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz); Michael Hutchison (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz); Ilan Noy (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | We examine the inflation targeting (IT) experiences of emerging market economies, focusing especially on the roles of the real exchange rate and the distinction between commodity and non-commodity exporting nations. In the context of a simple empirical model, estimated with panel data for 17 emerging markets using both IT and non-IT observations, we find a significant and stable response running from inflation to policy interest rates in emerging markets that are following publically announced IT policies. By contrast, central banks respond much less to inflation in non-IT regimes. IT emerging markets follow a “mixed IT strategy” whereby both inflation and real exchange rates are important determinants of policy interest rates. The response to real exchange rates is much stronger in non-IT countries, however, suggesting that policymakers are more constrained in the IT regime—they are attempting to simultaneously target both inflation and real exchange rates and these objectives are not always consistent. We also find that the response to real exchange rates is strongest in those countries following IT policies that are relatively intensive in exporting basic commodities. We present a simple model that explains this empirical result. |
| Keywords: | Inflation targeting, real exchange rate, commodity exporters, emerging markets |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F3 |
| Date: | 2008–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:200810&r=cba |
| By: | António Afonso (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Ricardo M. Sousa (University of Minho, Department of Economics and Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), Campus of Gualtar, 4710-057 - Braga, Portugal; London School of Economics, Department of Economics and Financial Markets Group, Houghton Street, London WC2 2AE, United Kingdom.) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the link between fiscal policy shocks and movements in asset markets using a Fully Simultaneous System approach in a Bayesian framework. Building on the works of Blanchard and Perotti (2002), Leeper and Zha (2003), and Sims and Zha (1999, 2006), the empirical evidence for the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Italy shows that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics when assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and its impact on asset markets. In addition, the results from a VAR counter-factual exercise suggest that: (i) fiscal policy shocks play a minor role in the asset markets of the U.S. and Germany; (ii) they substantially increase the variability of housing and stock prices in the U.K.; and (iii) government revenue shocks have apparently contributed to an increase of volatility in Italy. JEL Classification: C32, E62, G10, H62. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian Structural VAR, fiscal policy, housing prices, stock prices. |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20090990&r=cba |
| By: | António Afonso (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Ricardo M. Sousa (University of Minho, Department of Economics and Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), Campus of Gualtar, 4710-057 - Braga, Portugal; London School of Economics, Department of Economics and Financial Markets Group, Houghton Street, London WC2 2AE, United Kingdom.) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach. We build on a recursive identification scheme, but we (i) include the feedback from government debt (ii); look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets (via housing and stock prices); (iv) add the exchange rate; (v) assess potential interactions between fiscal and monetary policy; (vi) use quarterly data, particularly, fiscal data; and (vii) analyze empirical evidence from the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on GDP; lead to important “crowding-out” effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices; and lead to a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Government revenue shocks generate a small and positive effect on both housing prices and stock prices that later mean reverts; and lead to an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate. The empirical evidence also shows that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E62, H62. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, Bayesian Structural VAR, debt dynamics. |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20090991&r=cba |
| By: | Christoffer Kok Sørensen (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); David Marqués Ibáñez (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Carlotta Rossi (Corresponding author: Banca d’Italia, via Nazionale 91, I-00184 Roma, Italy.) |
| Abstract: | We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics of loan demand for the euro area are subsequently modelled by means of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We perform a number of specification tests, which suggest that developments in loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area can be reasonably explained by the model. We then use the estimated model to analyse the impact of permanent and temporary shocks to the policy rate on bank lending to nonfinancial corporations. JEL Classification: C32, C51. |
| Keywords: | Bank credit, euro area, non-financial corporations, cointegration, error-correction model. |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20090989&r=cba |
| By: | Elijah Brewer, III; George G. Kaufman; Larry D. Wall |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the literature on bank capital structure by modeling capital structure as a function of important public policy and bank regulatory characteristics of the home country, as well as of bank-specific variables, country-level macroeconomic conditions, and country-level financial characteristics. The model is estimated with annual data from 1992 to 2005 for an unbalanced panel of the seventy-eight largest private banks in the world headquartered in twelve industrial countries. The results indicate that bank capital ratios are significantly affected in the hypothesized directions by most of the bank-specific variables. Several of the country characteristic and policy variables are also significant with the predicted sign: Banks maintain higher capital ratios in home countries in which the bank sector is relatively smaller and in countries that practice prompt corrective actions more actively, have more stringent capital requirements, and have more effective corporate governance structures. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:2008-27&r=cba |
| By: | Fumiko Hayashi |
| Abstract: | This paper theoretically considers the optimal balance between the merchant fee and the cardholder fee (rewards) from both efficiency and equity perspectives. First, the paper constructs the models that can be used by the U.S. policymakers. Because theoretical results are very sensitive to the assumptions of the models, it is important to construct models that reflect the reality of the market. Second, the most efficient fee structure and product price are considered under the various combinations of the assumptions. And finally, the paper considers welfare consequences of the most efficient fee structure. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp08-06&r=cba |