|
on Business Economics |
By: | Marcelle Chauvet; James D. Hamilton |
Abstract: | This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. An intuitive, graphical derivation of these algorithms is presented along with a description of how they can be implemented making very minimal distributional assumptions. We also provide the intuition and detailed description of these algorithms for both simple parametric univariate inference as well as latent-variable multiple-indicator inference using a state-space Markov-switching approach. We illustrate the promise of this approach by reconstructing the inferences that would have been generated if parameters had to be estimated and inferences drawn based on data as they were originally released at each historical date. Waiting until one extra quarter of GDP growth is reported or one extra month of the monthly indicators released before making a call of a business cycle turning point helps reduce the risk of misclassification. We introduce two new measures for dating business cycle turning points, which we call the %u201Cquarterly real-time GDP-based recession probability index%u201D and the %u201Cmonthly real-time multiple-indicator recession probability index%u201D that incorporate these principles. Both indexes perform quite well in simulation with real-time data bases. We also discuss some of the potential complicating factors one might want to consider for such an analysis, such as the reduced volatility of output growth rates since 1984 and the changing cyclical behavior of employment. Although such refinements can improve the inference, we nevertheless find that the simpler specifications perform very well historically and may be more robust for recognizing future business cycle turning points of unknown character. |
JEL: | E32 |
Date: | 2005–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11422&r=bec |
By: | Matteo Manera (University of Milan-Bicocca and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Margherita Grasso (University College London) |
Abstract: | The existing literature on price asymmetries does not systematically investigate the sensitivity of the empirical results to the choice of a particular econometric specification. This paper fills this gap by providing a detailed comparison of the three most popular models designed to describe asymmetric price behaviour, namely asymmetric ECM, autoregressive threshold ECM and ECM with threshold cointegration. Each model is estimated on a common monthly dataset for the gasoline markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK over the period 1985-2003. All models are able to capture the temporal delay in the reaction of retail prices to changes in spot gasoline and crude oil prices, as well as some evidence of asymmetric behaviour. However, the type of market and the number of countries which are characterized by asymmetric oil-gasoline price relations vary across models. The asymmetric ECM yields some evidence of asymmetry for all countries, mainly at the distribution stage. The threshold ECM strongly rejects the null hypothesis of symmetric price behaviour, particularly in the case of France and Germany. Finally, the ECM with threshold cointegration finds long-run asymmetry for each country in the reaction of retail prices to oil price changes. |
Keywords: | Oil prices, Gasoline prices, Asymmetries, Error correction models |
JEL: | C22 D40 Q40 |
Date: | 2005–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.75&r=bec |
By: | Georges Dionne; Benoit Dostie |
Abstract: | In this paper, we provide new evidence on the determinants of absenteeism using the Workplace Employee Survey (WES) 1999-2002 from Statistics Canada. Our paper extends the typical labour-leisure model used to analyze the decision to skip work to include firm-level policy variables relevant to the absenteeism decision and uncerainty about the cost of absenteeism. It also provides a non-linear econometric model that explicitly takes into account the count nature of absenteeism data and unobserved heterogeneity at both the individual and firm level. Controlling for very detailed demographic, job and firm characteristics (including workplace practices), we find that dissatisfaction with contracted hours is a significant determinant of absence. |
Keywords: | Absenteeism, Linked Employer-Employee Data, Unobserved Heterogeneity, Count Data Models |
JEL: | J22 J29 C23 |
Date: | 2005 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0521&r=bec |
By: | Francesca Flamini |
Abstract: | The focus of this paper is on repeated bargaining games in which two parties can decide how much to invest and how to share the remaining surplus for their own consumption. The game is dynamic since the current level of investment affects future surpluses. We characterise an MPE without delays in general terms and show the parametrical effects for the specific case in which parties share the surplus equally. We show that the relatively more patient player invests more than his opponent, for a given capital stock. Moreover, if the probability of becoming a proposer decreases for the more patient player, then such a player reduces his investment, while the relatively impatient player increases his investment. |
JEL: | C61 C72 C73 C78 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_6&r=bec |
By: | Berg, Lennart (Department of Economics); Berger, Tommy (Institute for Housing and Urban Research) |
Abstract: | We argue that major changes in economic policy have resulted in a more market driven demand for housing investment in Sweden as a result of changes in policy during the end of the 1980s and beginning of the 1990s. The used investment theory is Tobin’s transparent Q theory. Our results indicate, for the last period of the sample (1993-2003 quarterly data) that a high degree of correlation between the Q ratio and the (logarithm of) two different variables for housing investment exist. An error correction regression model, controlling for structural breaks, indicates also a stable long run relationship could be detected for the logarithm of building starts and the Q ratio between 1993-2003 but not between 1981-1992. |
Keywords: | Tobin's Q; housing investment; error correction model; structural break |
JEL: | E22 R21 |
Date: | 2005–06–15 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2005_019&r=bec |
By: | Korkut Erturk (University of Utah) |
Abstract: | Despite his emphasis on the speculative character of investment decisions, Minsky paid little attention to asset price speculation per se, ignoring asset price bubbles and their macroeconomic effects. That is perhaps because his views were formed during the era of financial regulation, when speculation “could do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise.” Clearly, times have since changed. Keynes’s old warning that the situation “… is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation” has begun to ring true again. To deepen our understanding of financial fragility under present-day conditions, the paper builds on Keynes’s insights in his General Theory on the stock exchange by going back to his Treatise, where asset price expectations and speculation play an integral part in his analysis of the business cycle. More specifically, it develops the macroeconomic implications of some of his arguments that have mainly been eclipsed by his GT. These can be summarized in three related propositions: (1) asset price expectations systematically exhibit self-sustained biases in one direction or another over the business cycle; (2) once an asset price bubble emerges no automatic mechanism exists to check the deviation of prices from their true values; and, (3) mean reversion in asset prices over time plays itself out through a rise in inactive money balances in the banking system, which Keynes called the bear position, as more and more people begin to think that asset prices have reached levels that are unreasonable. This early picture of how financial variables interact with output determination over the business cycle is contrasted with Keynes’s better known analysis in the GT, which, it is argued, does not lend itself as readily to analyzing asset price misalignments. |
Keywords: | asset prices, speculation, business cycle, keynesian theory |
JEL: | E |
Date: | 2005–06–16 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0506010&r=bec |
By: | Luciano Nakabashi (Cedeplar-UFMG); Lízia de Figueiredo (Cedeplar-UFMG) |
Abstract: | This paper’s goal is to make use of a human capital proxy that takes into account quantitative and qualitative aspects of this factor to measure with a higher level of accuracy the impact of human capital on countries’ income level and rate of growth. The empirical study will take place by means of a comparative analysis of Mankiw, Romer and Weil’s 1992 paper. |
Keywords: | human capital proxy, qualitative aspects of human capital |
JEL: | C21 E13 I20 O11 O41 |
Date: | 2005–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td265&r=bec |
By: | Gamal Atallah |
Abstract: | In this paper we extend the R&D cooperation model to asymmetric firms, focusing on the incentives for cooperating with firms characterized by different levels of efficiency. Three firms differentiated by their cost levels invest in cost-reducing R&D before competing in output. Firms may cooperate in R&D, which implies both R&D coordination and perfect information sharing. It is found that firms’ preferences over whom to cooperate with depend on spillovers and on cost differences between firms. With low (high) spillovers, a firm prefers to cooperate with the most (least) efficient among the remaining firms. As the cost differential between firms increases, efficient (inefficient) firms prefer to cooperate with the most (least) efficient firm more often. For very high spillovers, a firm prefers to be excluded from R&D cooperation. The equilibrium configuration is that the most efficient firms cooperate for low spillovers, while all firms cooperate for intermediate spillovers. For high spillovers, the equilibrium is for all firms to cooperate when the cost differential is sufficiently low, but depends on the bargaining mechanism when the cost differential is high. The model constitutes a generalization of the standard R&D model with symmetric firms. <P>Ce papier analyse les incitations à la coopération technologique entre des firmes différenciées par leur niveau d’efficacité. Trois firmes dotées de coûts de production différents investissent dans la R&D visant à réduire leurs coûts de production, avant de se concurrencer en quantités. Les firmes peuvent coopérer en R&D, ce qui implique la coordination des investissements en R&D et le partage d’information. Il est démontré que les préférences quant au choix du partenaire dépendent des externalités de recherche et du différentiel de coûts. Lorsque les externalités de recherche sont faibles (élevées), une firme préfère coopérer avec le partenaire le plus (moins) efficace qui est disponible. À mesure que le différentiel de coûts augmente, les firmes efficaces (inefficaces) préfèrent coopérer avec les partenaires les plus (moins) efficaces plus souvent. Pour des niveaux d’externalités très élevés, une firme préfère être exclue de la coopération en R&D. La configuration d’équilibre est que les firmes les plus efficaces coopèrent lorsque les externalités sont faibles, alors que toutes les firmes coopèrent pour des niveaux intermédiaires des externalités. Lorsque les externalités sont élevées, l’équilibre est que toutes les firmes coopèrent lorsque le différentiel de coûts est suffisamment faible, mais dépend de la structure de négociation lorsque ce différentiel est élevé. Le modèle constitue une généralisation du modèle de concurrence en R&D avec des firmes symétriques. |
Keywords: | asymmetric firms, R&D cooperation, R&D spillovers, research joint ventures, coopération en R&D, consortiums de recherche, firmes asymétriques, externalités de recherche |
JEL: | L13 O33 |
Date: | 2005–06–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2005s-24&r=bec |
By: | Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer |
Date: | 2005–06–21 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levrem:784828000000000121&r=bec |
By: | Nicoletta Corrocher (CESPRI, Università Bocconi, Milano); Lorenzo Zirulia (CESPRI, Università Bocconi, Milano) |
Abstract: | In this paper we develop a formal model that captures some basic features of competition in the mobile communications service industry. In a model of oligopolistic competition with price discrimination and switching costs, we study the role of firms’ installed base of consumers in providing the incentives to offer contracts for a new class of consumers with a lower willingness to pay. The model predicts that there exists an inverse relationship between the share of the leader in the market of consumers with high willingness to pay and its share in the market of consumers with low willingness to pay. This implies that market shares converge. If firms collude in the introduction of new contracts, convergence is milder. This result is consistent with the empirical evidence related to the mobile communications industry in different European countries, where we observe a convergence in market shares driven by the superior ability of followers to acquire new customers, who typically have lower willingness to pay as compared with early adopters. |
Keywords: | Switching costs; Price discrimination; Mobile communications |
JEL: | L13 L96 |
Date: | 2005–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cri:cespri:wp166&r=bec |
By: | Lorenzo Zirulia (CESPRI, Università Bocconi, Milano) |
Abstract: | This paper models the formation of R&D networks in an industry where firms are technologically heterogenous, extending previous work by Goyal and Moraga (2001). While remaining competitors in the market side, firms share their R&D efforts on a pairwise base, to an extent that depends on their technological capabilities. First, we consider a four firms’ industry. In the class of symmetric networks, the complete network is the only pairwise stable network, although not necessarily profit or social welfare maximizing. Then, we extend the analysis to asymmetric structures in a three firms’ industry. Only the complete and the partially connected networks are possibly stable, but which network is stable depends on the level of heterogeneity and technological opportunities. The complete and partially connected networks are also the possible welfare and aggregate profit maximizing networks, but social and private incentives do not generally coincide. Finally, we consider the notion of strongly stable networks, where all the possible deviations by coalitions of agents are allowed. It turns out that in the four firms’ case, the complete network is very rarely strongly stable, while in the three firms’ case the partially connected network where two firms in different technological group are linked is, for a large subset of the parameter space, the only strongly stable network. |
Keywords: | Strategic alliances; Networks; Research and development; Technological complementarities |
JEL: | D21 D43 |
Date: | 2005–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cri:cespri:wp167&r=bec |
By: | Butter, Frank A.G. den (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics); Mosch, Robert H.J. |
Abstract: | The economic perspective on values and norms shows that they may bring about externalities for the society as a whole. This possibility of market failure provides a good reason for the government to follow closely the developments in values and norms, and the resulting behaviour in communities and networks. It justifies the initiative of Prime Minister Balkenende to organise the debate on these matters in the Netherlands (and, under the Dutch EU-presidency, in Europe). Networks can be associated both with positive (Putnam type) and with negative (Olson type) externalities. This paper discusses the various influences of values, norms and networks on socio-economic welfare and provides empirical evidence on these relationships. The focus of our own empirical analysis is on the Netherlands. Trust as part of social capital, and the role that values, norms and networks play as co-ordination mechanism, form important aspects both in the theoretical and in the empirical analysis. It appears that there has been no obvious decrease in these aspects of social capital in the Netherlands. It contrasts the findings of Putnam for the US. |
Keywords: | social capital; values and norms; trust; networks; market failure |
JEL: | D62 D70 H19 |
Date: | 2004 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:vuarem:2004-10&r=bec |
By: | Boter, Jaap (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics); Rouwendal, Jan; Wedel, Michel |
Abstract: | Since recently, a number of studies have applied non-market valuation techniques to measure the value of cultural goods. All studies are single case applications and rely mostly on stated preferences, such as contingent valuation techniques. We compare the relative value of multiple, competing goods and show how revealed preferences, in particular travel costs, may be used for this. In addition, we account for heterogeneity. Using a unique transaction database with the visiting behavior of 80,821 Museum Cardholders to 108 Dutch museums, we propose a latent class application of a logit model to account for the different distances of museums to the population and for differences in willingness-to-travel. |
Keywords: | museums; non-market valuation; revealed preferences; travel cost method |
Date: | 2004 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:vuarem:2004-11&r=bec |
By: | Frambach, Ruud T. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics); Herk, Hester van; Agarwal, Manoj K. |
Abstract: | Diffusion patterns of products are known to differ significantly between countrie. Studies that mainly focused on consumer contexts in European countries show that culture has a significant effect on innovation diffusion and consumer innovativeness. In the present research we focus on adoption intentions of individual managers operating in a business-to-business context, for two telecommunication innovations. We expect rational motives to drive the adoption process more than national-cultural values. The study contains data from more than 3,200 respondents in 22 countries worldwide, including less developed countries. Results reveal that individual-level variables and economic characteristics of a country drive adoption more than national culture. Moreover, this effect seems stronger for the relatively newer and more expensive innovation. |
Keywords: | international adoption; innovation; national culture; managers; worldwide survey |
Date: | 2004 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:vuarem:2004-14&r=bec |
By: | LEE, Janghyuk; BRILEY, Donnel A. (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
Abstract: | In this paper, we explain the repeat exposure effect of Internet advertising. By using a field data set of 34 advertising campaigns, we analyze functional forms of the repeat exposure effect of Internet advertising. Among four ad effectiveness measures including aided brand awareness, message recall, brand opinion (favorability), and purchase intent, only message recall shows substantial differences between control and exposures groups. Two patterns of repeating exposure effect on message recall are found: the one in monotonically increasing with a decreasing rate and the other in a quadratic form of inverted 'U'-shape with 'wearout' effect. |
Keywords: | Internet; Advertising; Repeat exposure; Message recall |
JEL: | M37 |
Date: | 2005–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:0809&r=bec |
By: | Elizabeth Davis; Matthew Freedman; Julia Lane; Brian McCall; Nicole Nestoriak; Timothy Park |
Abstract: | The rise of super-centers and the entry of Wal-Mart into food retailing have dramatically altered the competitive environment in the industry. This paper explores the impact of such changes on the labor market practices of traditional food retailers. We use longitudinal data on workers and firms to construct new measures of compensation and employment, and examine how these measures evolve within and across firms in response to changes in product market structure. An additional feature of the analysis is to combine rich case study knowledge about the retail food industry with the new matched employer-employee data from the Census Bureau. |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrr:papers:0905&r=bec |
By: | Naohito Abe; Satoshi Shimizutani |
Abstract: | Japan's economic problems over the past decade and a half have triggered far reaching changes in the country's corporate governance system and there have been significant changes in both companiesf ownership structures and composition of board members. This paper examines how board and ownership structures affect firms' decision as to how to reduce labor costs when firms face excess employment. Our findings confirm that outside directors are more inclined to implement layoffs and voluntary or early retirement, while insiders are more likely to decrease new hiring and protect incumbent employees. These findings are consistent with the stakeholder view of the firm rather than the neoclassical view of firms as profit-maximizers. |
Keywords: | corporate governance, employment downsizing, multivariate probit model |
JEL: | G30 J23 |
Date: | 2005–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hst:hstdps:d05-92&r=bec |
By: | Oburai Prathap; Kok Wai Chew |
Abstract: | Changed agenda and paradigms require marketing’s research methods and tools of enquiry to reflect fully the need to intensify theory-building programmes. We examine the evolution of the case research strategy in the context of business markets and inter-organisational relations, and submit that there is marked convergence of its underlying methodological and philosophical perspectives. Given that marrying qualitative and quantitative is a strategy endorsed by several eminent researchers, we apply mixed method approach to studying two significant phenomena viz. marketing channels and international marketing strategies. We adopt a mix of case research, grounded theoretic research methodologies and multivariate multidimensional mapping techniques for exploring both the subject areas. The first study offers a classification scheme for grouping marketing channels observed across thirteen industries into five homogenous clusters. The second study investigates the international marketing strategies adopted in twelve different business sectors in India. This study identifies several elements of international marketing strategies that may have the potential to affect business outcomes across sectors. In this paper, a case is made to promote the use of innovative and novel combinations of research methodologies to derive new insights of business phenomena. |
Keywords: | India International Marketing Strategy Marketing Channels Research Methodology |
Date: | 2005–06–21 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2005-06-02&r=bec |
By: | Hennessy, David A. |
Abstract: | Stylized facts regarding the industrial process include emphases on obtaining information about and control over the quality of raw materials. We provide a model that establishes conditions under which informed control involves ensuring uniformity in inputs and increased uniformity encourages more extensive processing. We show when the Boltzmann-Shannon entropy statistic is an appropriate measure of uniformity. |
Date: | 2005–06–22 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:12377&r=bec |
By: | FILSER, Marc (LEG-CERMAB - CNRS - IAE - Université de Bourgogne) |
Abstract: | La recherche académique en management des activités culturelles et de loisirs est un courant récent, apparu au début des années 90, mais dont la production est importante et éclectique. Trois axes peuvent être identifiés pour structurer ces recherches:l'analyse du comportement du public, la stratégie des institutions et la gestion de leurs décisions opérationnelles dans les domaines de la tarification, de la communication et de la distribution. Cet article analyse la convergence de ces recherches vers les interrogations opérationnelles des institutions du secteur./ Management of culture and leisure is a relatively new field for the academic research. It began to structure in the early 90's, and leads to a dynamic and eclectic flow of contributions. Three major areas are investigated : the behaviour of public, strategic decision making by institutions, and operational implementation of this strategy, most notably in the areas of pricing, communication and distribution. This paper investigates the convergence of academic research with strategic expectations of the institutions in the sector of culture and leisure activities. |
Keywords: | management des activités culturelles et de loisirs ; management of culture and leisure |
Date: | 2005–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lat:gstion:2005-01&r=bec |
By: | LICHTLE, Marie-Christine (LEG-CERMAB - CNRS - IAE - Université de Bourgogne) |
Abstract: | Le choix des couleurs utilisées dans une publicité est très important mais souvent effectué de manière intuitive. Lorsqu'un annonceur souhaite favoriser la mémorisation d'une marque, on peut s'interroger sur le choix de la couleur : faut-il plutôt sélectionner des couleurs pertinentes? Auxquelles les individus s'attendent? Qu'ils apprécient? Ou a-t-on au contraire intérêt à opter pour des couleurs considérées comme étonnantes? Les résultats d'une étude exploratoire montrent que la mémorisation est meilleure lorsque l'annonceur choisit des couleurs pertinentes et appréciées des individus. Il faut donc chercher quelles sont les couleurs présentant ces caractéristiques pour les adapter à la cible, d'autant plus que les couleurs préférées et considérées comme pertinentes peuvent être différentes pour les hommes et les femmes./ The choice of the color used in an ad is a very important one, but it is often made in an intuitive way. When an advertiser wants to favor memorization, we can wonder which color he must choose : is it recommanded to select pertinent colors ? which individuals expect ? that they like ? or must he on the contrary choose surprising colors ? The results of an exploratory study show that the more the advertiser selects pertinent and liked colors, the better the memorization. As a consequence, the advertiser has to determine which colors have these characteristics in order to adapt them to the target ; furthermore, preferred colors and colors considered as pertinent may be different for men and women. |
Keywords: | communication ; comportement du consommateur ; distribution |
Date: | 2005–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lat:gstion:2005-02&r=bec |
By: | Cinzia COLAPINTO |
Abstract: | MANAGING CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR BY CRM AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE: BET WEEN HISTORY AND DATA. In this paper we introduce some definition s concerning Customer Relationship Management and Business Intell igence and we emphasize how they can improve business strategies and performances. We show how Data Mining techniques can be used for CRM analysis, understanding customer behaviour in order to fo recast future actions, improving decisions and results. We analyz e the evolution of marketing, CRM and BI during the last two deca des in Italy, focusing on the different characteristics of the tw o “waves” of CRM projects. |
Keywords: | Business Intelligence, Customer Relationship Management, Data Mining |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2005-13&r=bec |
By: | Barbara J. Spencer |
Abstract: | International outsourcing to lower cost countries such as China and India can best be understood through the enrichment of trade models to include concepts from industrial organization and contract theory that explain the vertical organization of production. The combination of trade with the choice of organizational form represents an important new area for both theoretical and empirical research. This survey paper provides a perspective on this new literature so as to gain insights into the forces driving international outsourcing. The paper focuses on relationship-specific investment, incomplete contracts, and also search and matching, as fundamental concepts that explain outsourcing decisions. |
JEL: | F1 L14 |
Date: | 2005–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11418&r=bec |
By: | R. M. Balan (Department of Mathematics, University of Ottawa, LRSP); Ioana Schiopu-Kratina (Statistics Canada) |
Abstract: | We consider the marginal models of Liang and Zeger (1986) for the analysis of longitudinal data and we develop a theory of statistical inference for such models. We prove the existence, weak consistency and asymptotic normality of a sequence of estimators defined as roots of pseudo-likelihood equations. |
Keywords: | Generalized estimating equations, Generalized linear model, Consistency, Asymptotic normality |
JEL: | C10 C40 |
Date: | 2004–03–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pqs:wpaper:0222005&r=bec |