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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Gutmann, Jerg |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the case of Iran to evaluate how changes in the intensity of international sanctions affect internal conflict in the target country. Estimating a vector autoregressive model for the period between 2001q2 and 2020q3 with quarterly data on internal conflict and its three subcomponents (civil disorder, terrorism, and civil war) as well as a sanction intensity index, we find that an unexpected increase in sanction intensity causes an increase in both civil disorder and terrorism risk. In contrast, the risk of civil war declines after an increase in sanction intensity. These findings for Iran indicate that higher intensity sanctions may allow sender country governments to put pressure on target country political regimes without risking an outbreak of major violent conflicts. Therefore, more intensive sanctions, may also not be helpful in inducing violent regime change. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, sanction intensity, internal conflict, civil disorder, terrorism, civil war, VAR model, Iran |
| JEL: | D74 F51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ilewps:82 |
| By: | Stöcker, Alexander; Zintl, Tina |
| Abstract: | Gender inequality not only leads to poor labour market outcomes for women, both in terms of participation and the type of employment, but is also a constraining factor for economic development worldwide. While there is a sizeable pool of literature on the underlying barriers to female employment, it remains unclear how these barriers play out across different world regions. This paper discusses and compares the barriers to (decent) work faced by women in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is inspired by the three labour market transitions as countries develop economically over time (paid work, wage work and occupational variety) as presented by Bandiera et al. (2022a). Against this background, we identify the factors that are most helpful in explaining why so many women (i) do not take up any paid work; (ii) cannot find more decent (wage) work; and (iii) are rarely employed in specialized, well-remunerated and highly productive work. We find that labour market outcomes of women in both regions are negatively affected by gender norms, yet in a remarkably different way. Women in the MENA region especially do not often take up paid work at all (first transition) due to strong prevailing social norms and prioritised personal commitments, such as care work and other household chores. Women in SSA are more often detained from finding wage work with better working conditions (second transition). For economic reasons, many African women need to contribute to the household income so gendered labour market barriers, such as care responsibilities and time constraints, frequently push them to accept precarious jobs. Possibilities to get into more specialised occupations (third transition) are slim for women in both our regions of interest, as they tend to continue working in traditionally female-dominated sectors. Yet, in MENA, occupational segregation often arises due to gender norms around appropriate workplace and tasks or transportation, while this link is less pronounced in SSA. Our approach, thus, allows us to compare the barriers to labour market inclusion and advancement that deny women better jobs and a more active role in economic development in different world regions. |
| Keywords: | gender equality, labour markets, labour force participation, female employment, occupational segregation, social norms, necessity entrepreneurship, decent work, barriers to employment |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:307590 |
| By: | Aytun, Uğur; Hinz, Julian; Özgüzel, Cem |
| Abstract: | In November 2015, Turkey's unexpected downing of a Russian military jet in Syria prompted Russia to impose a swift and comprehensive embargo on specific Turkish exports. This study leverages this quasi-natural experiment to estimate both the immediate and longer-term effects of the imposition and subsequent lifting of these sanctions. Utilizing administrative data encompassing all Turkish exporters, we first examine the impact on trade at the firm level, assessing the direct effects of the embargo, the redirection of trade to alternative markets, and the circumvention through other products. Second, we investigate broader repercussions on domestic operations, including firms' sales, procurement, and employment. Our findings show that while the embargo caused immediate and substantial declines in exports of affected products to Russia, firms partially mitigated these losses through trade diversion. Although relative trade patterns normalized post-sanctions, absolute trade values remained subdued. The analysis reveals that affected firms experienced declines in domestic sales and supplier relationships, with temporary disruptions in employment. However, most negative effects dissipated following the embargo's removal, except for some persistent reductions in procurement and supplier links. These results contribute to the understanding of sanctions' broader economic implications and the resilience of firms facing trade disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Embargoes, Firm-level Effects, Gravity |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:306823 |
| By: | Kibris, Arzu (University of Warwick, Department of Politics and International Studies.); Arbatli, Eren (Durham University, Department of Economics.); Williams, Cole (Durham University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | One out of three women views intimate partner violence (IPV) as justified, and the rates of IPV approval are significantly higher among women than men. Beyond societal norms and family upbringing, what other factors explain IPV approval among women? We propose a theory that focuses on women’s experiences with ‘toxic husbands’ who display authoritarian attitudes and high proclivity to aggression. Our model highlights a novel mechanism whereby experiencing threatening behavior leads women to adopt fear-induced submission when the perceived risks are high and outside options are low, with IPV approval being a manifestation of internalized submission. Leveraging a population-level natural experiment created by the mandatory conscription system, the military deployment lottery, and the long-running civil conflict in Turkey as an exogenous influence on husband type, we test various predictions from our theory. We find that women whose husbands served in conflict zones are more approving of IPV, even when they have not experienced any. Further evidence supports the mechanism we propose with important implications for the fight against domestic violence. |
| Keywords: | Domestic Violence ; Intimate Partner Violence ; Armed Conflict ; Gender Norm JEL Codes: J12 ; J16 ; D13 ; O15 ; I15 ; D74 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wqapec:25 |