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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Abdessalam Jaldi; Hamza Mjahed |
| Abstract: | This policy paper examines India’s growing engagement in North Africa, focusing on five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. Despite lacking a distinct regional policy for North Africa, India has amplified its bilateral engagement with these countries, underpinned by a steadfast commitment to the principle of South-South cooperation. Through its strategic moves in North Africa, India has established a powerful southern-west axis for its foreign policy that stretches from Iran to Morocco, enabling it to effectively cover the entire southern Mediterranean region. This paper traces the trajectory of India’s relations with North Africa, from an ideological approach to a more pragmatic approach focused on economic and security cooperation. It also highlights India’s economic engagement in the region, which has enabled it to emerge as one of the top trading partners for Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria. Based on this analysis, the paper concludes with recommendations to deepen India’s engagement in North Africa, and to enhance its regional presence. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_04-23 |
| By: | Mahdi Goldani |
| Abstract: | Political stability is crucial for the socioeconomic development of nations, particularly in geopolitically sensitive regions such as the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. This study focuses on predicting the political stability index for these six countries using machine learning techniques. The study uses data from the World Banks comprehensive dataset, comprising 266 indicators covering economic, political, social, and environmental factors. Employing the Edit Distance on Real Sequence method for feature selection and XGBoost for model training, the study forecasts political stability trends for the next five years. The model achieves high accuracy, with mean absolute percentage error values under 10, indicating reliable predictions. The forecasts suggest that Oman, the UAE, and Qatar will experience relatively stable political conditions, while Saudi Arabia and Bahrain may continue to face negative political stability indices. The findings underscore the significance of economic factors such as GDP and foreign investment, along with variables related to military expenditure and international tourism, as key predictors of political stability. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers, enabling proactive measures to enhance governance and mitigate potential risks. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.21516 |
| By: | Mahdi Goldani |
| Abstract: | The GCC region includes Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, which are of critical geopolitical and economic importance, being rich in oil and positioned along vital maritime routes. However, the region faces complex security challenges, ranging from traditional threats like interstate conflicts to nontraditional risks such as cyber-attacks, piracy, and environmental concerns. This study investigates the safety and security index for six GCC countries using machine learning techniques, specifically XGBoost, to forecast security trends for the next five years. Data from the Global Peace Index and World Bank development indicators were employed to construct the model. Key indicators related to economic, political, and environmental factors were selected using the Edit Distance on Real Sequence feature selection method. The model demonstrated high accuracy, with a mean absolute percentage error of less than 10% across all countries. The results indicate that Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are likely to experience improvements in their safety and security indexes. At the same time, Kuwait and Oman may face challenges in maintaining their current levels of security. The findings suggest that economic diversification, environmental sustainability, and social stability are critical for ensuring long-term security in the region. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers in designing proactive strategies to address emerging security threats. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.21511 |
| By: | Mahdi Goldani; Soraya Asadi Tirvan |
| Abstract: | The Gulf Cooperation Council countries -- Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia -- holds strategic significance due to its large oil reserves. However, these nations face considerable challenges in shifting from oil-dependent economies to more diversified, knowledge-based systems. This study examines the progress of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in achieving economic diversification and social development, focusing on the Social Progress Index (SPI), which provides a broader measure of societal well-being beyond just economic growth. Using data from the World Bank, covering 2010 to 2023, the study employs the XGBoost machine learning model to forecast SPI values for the period of 2024 to 2026. Key components of the methodology include data preprocessing, feature selection, and the simulation of independent variables through ARIMA modeling. The results highlight significant improvements in education, healthcare, and women's rights, contributing to enhanced SPI performance across the GCC countries. However, notable challenges persist in areas like personal rights and inclusivity. The study further indicates that despite economic setbacks caused by global disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price volatility, GCC nations are expected to see steady improvements in their SPI scores through 2027. These findings underscore the critical importance of economic diversification, investment in human capital, and ongoing social reforms to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons and build knowledge-driven economies. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to strengthen both social and economic resilience in the region while advancing long-term sustainable development goals. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.21505 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Hajar Kabbach |
| Abstract: | Gender disparities in the labor market persist as a serious challenge, resulting in lower participation rates for women than men. This gender gap in labor force participation varies considerably across regions, with female participation rates consistently lagging men. After some progress during the last few decades, the multiple crises faced by the global economy in recent times – pandemic, the war in Ukraine, rising risks of climate change, and slowing growth after high inflation – have meant a setback to progress in reforms toward the empowerment of women in labor markets. We approach here how Morocco can strengthen productivity and economic growth by pursuing reforms to reduce gender inequality of opportunities. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_12-23 |
| By: | Eduardo A. Haddad; Inácio F. Araújo |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a synthetic view of the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of the economic sectors and regions that make up the Moroccan economy, taking into account the current economic structure and production technologies. Therefore, the potential effects must be understood as signals to think about interventions aimed at redirecting the desired trajectories of sustainable development. The application of the tools developed to give scientific support to this analysis reveals the current structure of Morocco’s regional economies, inserted into the context of the national and world economies. The intricate web of interrelationships between the different sectors of each region’s productive apparatus— manifested by its supply chains, the generation of income by sectors, and their expenditures— is duly represented. Each of the 20 sectors into which the Moroccan economy was divided produces distinct effects on the productive system as a whole, duly measured by the instruments developed. Likewise, when analyzing the 12 regional economies one by one, one can assess their multidimensional impacts in the context of an integrated interregional system. Finally, to implement the hierarchical analysis based on pre-defined weights for the different structural indicators considered in the study, a tool was developed that provides a hierarchy of sectors (regions) most likely to contribute to the dimensions of development most closely associated with revealed preferences of the actors involved in the decision-making process. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_07-23 |
| By: | Tajmazinani, Ali Akbar |
| Abstract: | While there is increasing consensus in the academic debate on the regressive nature of energy subsidies and the necessity to reduce them, this is much less so for food subsidy reforms - not least because of the positive impact of food subsidies for food security. They make food affordable even for lower-income households, and therefore they are often important for the well-being of this group. In addition, food subsidy reforms can be designed in different ways and have quite different effects. Badly designed programmes may cause more harm than good. Many countries in the world, including in the MENA region, struggle thus with the question of whether, and under which conditions, it is recommendable to reduce food subsidies. This discussion paper examines the most recent experience of food subsidy reform in Iran in order to derive some lessons for food subsidy reforms elsewhere. Iran has a long history of providing general commodity subsidies, including for energy and food items, and it has attempted several waves of subsidy reforms in the past three decades, most notably in 2010 (energy and bread) and 2019 (petrol), whereby it established a nationwide direct cash transfer system. However, given the political and economic circumstances, subsequent administrations have returned to different kinds of consumer subsidies, which have required further reforms. The most recent form of food subsidy was the preferential foreign exchange rate (PFER) policy, which allocated about US$100 billion of the government's foreign exchange reserves with a fixed rate (far below the market rate) - during the four years following the unilateral withdrawal of United States from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 - to import food and other basic commodities. Finally, the Raisi administration abolished the PFER policy in May 2022 and started to redistribute what it saved from the consumer subsidy cuts through the Just Distribution of Subsidies Scheme (JDSS), which is actually a targeted direct cash transfer scheme. The main question of this discussion paper is: Under which conditions is a reduction or full elimination of food subsidies recommendable, given the experiences of Iran with its most recent reform (the replacement of consumer subsidies by targeted direct cash transfers paid out by the JDSS), and what challenges might such a reform entail? A secondary analysis of national data on "household expenditures" and "price index" is used to calculate future changes in household living expenditures in the short and medium terms, and to determine winners and losers of the new policy. Moreover, a thematic analysis of published contents (interviews, columns, articles and public speeches) about the scheme from key experts - before and after the launch of the scheme - is used to map out various aspects of the successes and failures of the scheme. Our findings indicate that the way food subsidy reforms are designed and at what moment they are implemented matter a lot with regard to their effects. In the Iranian case, several factors could undermine the success of the recent food subsidy reform. First, ignoring the framework conditions of reform - including both international and domestic factors (such as economic instability, diminishing vertical trust, a lack of smooth foreign relations, budget deficit and low standards of good governance) - can jeopardise the reform or nullify its effects. Second, the lack of an "indexation element" (for the level of cash transfers) in an environment of continually increasing inflation and currency devaluation lead to a rapid decline in the purchasing power of cash transfers. Third, implementation shortcomings, such as targeting errors (due to weaknesses of the Iranians' Welfare Database), delivery deviations and a lack of transparency, lead to serious levels of mistrust. Ultimately, all of the above-mentioned challenges in the design and implementation of the scheme seem to hamper its objectives with regard to food security, poverty reduction, promotion of income equality and the abolition of corruption. As a consequence we recommend that policy-makers (i) bear in mind the effect of national and international framework conditions (such as uneven international relations, economic situation, high inflation, diminishing vertical trust and chronic budget deficits) on the possible success of the reform; (ii) consider prioritising other, more urgent economic reforms (such as reforming the budgeting, banking and taxation systems) instead of reforming food subsides, which may be vital for the food security of the lowest income groups of the population; (iii) set an "indexation element" in the scheme and raise the cash amount and/or provide a fixed package of food items in a timely manner; (iv) control for possible targeting errors in the compensation element of the food subsidy reform before launching the scheme and during its implementation; and (v) make sure that any scheme that is meant to compensate for the subsidy cuts, such as a direct cash transfer scheme, is well-embedded in the overall social protection system of the country. |
| Keywords: | Subsidy reform, food subsidy, cash transfer, redistribution, inflation, Iran |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:305247 |
| By: | Sinan Güne; Gülnaz engül Güne; Yeim Tanrvermi |
| Abstract: | The most crucial issue that urgently needs to be addressed for the problems of global warming and the greenhouse effect is carbon emissions. Carbon emissions are extensively generated throughout all stages of the building life cycle, from material production to building design and operation. Therefore, it is essential to rapidly develop and adopt low-carbon design methods. The aim of this study is to identify the challenges faced by Turkey in the transition to low-carbon energy, prioritize these challenges, and highlight the key factors of strategic importance for the effective implementation of energy policies. In the initial phase of the study, challenges in transitioning to low-carbon energy were classified through a literature review, and criteria were established. Subsequently, these criteria were compared through a focus group study. Binary comparison results were then used to obtain an equation based on weighting through the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method, determining the challenges in Turkey's energy sector and their priorities for transitioning to low-carbon energy. The findings are crucial for understanding and producing strategic solutions to the obstacles in achieving energy-efficient transitions in Turkey. Furthermore, the results of the study encompass insights for transitioning to high-energy performance buildings. The analyses conducted to identify the key factors in Turkey's transition to low-carbon energy are strategically important for ensuring the effective implementation of energy policies. The outcomes of this study will serve as a valuable guide for policymakers and industry experts to comprehend and address the difficulties encountered in Turkey's energy transformation. |
| Keywords: | energy policies; Energy transition; Fuzzy AHP; low carbon energy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-235 |
| By: | Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Ugo Panizza; Carmen Reinhart (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Douglas Barrios (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Clement Brenot (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Jesus Daboin Pacheco; Clemens Graf von Luckner; Frank Muci (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Lucila Venturi |
| Abstract: | Lebanon’s current economic crisis ranks among the worst in recent history. GDP has collapsed by 38% in real terms. The Lebanese lira, which was fixed to the dollar in 1997, has lost more than 98% of its value on the parallel market. The government has defaulted on its debt, and depositors are unable to access their funds held at commercial banks. Consolidated public sector debt, including both government debt and commercial banks’ claims on the Banque du Liban (BdL), represents more than seven times the current GDP. Public services delivery has crumbled. In short, the country is undergoing a debt crisis, a banking crisis, a currency crisis, and a growth collapse. Four years into the crisis, a resolution remains elusive, and each passing day increases the economic and social burdens faced by the population. Given the increasing cost of delaying a resolution, we propose a strategy for Lebanon’s economic recovery that addresses all the dimensions of the crisis while recognizing the need to rapidly kick-start the economic recovery. |
| Keywords: | Lebanon, sovereign debt, international finance |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:223 |
| By: | Gülnaz engül Güne; Sinan Güne; Monsurat Ayojimi Salami; Yeim Tanrvermi |
| Abstract: | Corporate social sustainability is an approach aimed at minimizing environmental and social impacts while sustaining economic activities of businesses and fulfilling responsibilities towards society. This approach not only aims to generate profit but also endeavors to preserve environmental resources, be sensitive to societal needs, and create long-term sustainable value. Corporate social sustainability encourages businesses to operate in an environmentally and socially sensitive manner, moving away from a sole focus on profit. The real estate sector, while shaping the physical fabric of cities and societies, is also a significant sector that needs to be mindful of its environmental impacts. Real estate properties contribute to a certain percentage of environmental issues due to factors such as energy consumption, water resource utilization, and waste management. In this context, real estate companies are required to embrace and implement corporate social sustainability principles to reduce environmental impacts and meet societal needs. Practices such as green building design, energy efficiency measures, and waste management systems constitute a significant part of sustainability efforts in the real estate sector. Thus, real estate companies contribute to a sustainable future by both mitigating their environmental impacts and operating in a socially responsible manner. Within the scope of this research, the aim is to evaluate the perspectives of real estate companies operating in Türkiye regarding corporate social sustainability and their efforts in this regard. To achieve this aim, a closed-ended survey was conducted targeting real estate companies listed and unlisted on the stock exchange in Turkey. The research is deemed beneficial in shedding light on the perspectives of real estate companies operating in Türkiye towards sustainability and informing policymakers about measures to be taken at the company level to promote sustainability. |
| Keywords: | corporate social sustainability; Esg; real estate companies; sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-240 |
| By: | Bienek, Jan |
| Abstract: | This dissertation in global economic history analyses the differences in the effect of violent and peaceful decolonisation processes on postindependence trade between former colony and coloniser. Prior studies concerned with the effect independence had on trade have not adequately treated decolonisation as a process that spans the colonial and postcolonial period and have insufficiently differentiated its impact according to the nature of the decolonisation process. This dissertation advances our understanding of the economic implications of decolonisation by providing a comparative analysis of the independence processes of Algeria and Senegal. The findings suggest that the violent nature of the Algerian decolonisation has led to an abrupt reduction in the relative importance of trade with its former coloniser France. Senegal on the other hand, due to its peaceful decolonisation process, reduced the French share in its imports and exports slower than Algeria. While previous studies have not linked the course of the decline in colony-metropole trade to historical developments, this dissertation demonstrates that post-independence economic policy, and bilateral ties as well as the disruption of networks and the influence of French migrants, which varied according to the nature of the independence process, shaped how rapidly Senegal and Algeria reduced their trade with France. This dissertation extends prior studies on the impact of independence on trade by proposing a novel conceptual approach that considers wars of independence as a factor influencing and even accelerating the mechanisms that also cause the postcolonial trade decline in peaceful independence processes. |
| JEL: | F54 F10 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125846 |
| By: | Diego A. Martin (Harvard's Growth Lab) |
| Abstract: | Do women apply more for jobs when they know the hiring probability of female job seekers directly from employers? I implemented a randomized control trial and a double-incentivized resume rating to elicit the preferences of employers and job seekers for candidates and vacancies in Iraq. The treatment reveals the job offer rate for women, calculated using the employers’ selection of women divided by the total number of female candidates. After revealing the treatment, the women applied for jobs by three more percentage points than the men in the control group. This paper highlights the value of revealing employers’ preferences to improve the match between female candidates and employers when women underestimate the chances of finding a job. |
| Keywords: | Iraq, Application for jobs, Information treatment, Labor market matching, Gender difference |
| JEL: | J61 J64 J70 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:226 |
| By: | Abdelmonim AMACHRAA |
| Abstract: | Nothing better illustrates the positive contribution of the integration of national economies into global value chains than the fact that in the 1990s, the automotive sector barely existed in Morocco. Now, it is the leading export sector, with a production and assembly capacity of 700, 000 vehicles, making it an attractive and competitive hub linking Africa and Europe in the automotive value chain. However, the automotive industry is on the cusp of change, with advances in electric and autonomous vehicles, and transformations in mobility, lowering the barriers to entry in car assembly, and increasing the need for labor- intensive products such as wiring harnesses. We have identified two trends. First, vehicle manufacturers are engaging in the supply of raw materials. Second, the reorientation of investment flows and the organization of the location of production units will allow Western countries to reduce their dependence on foreign suppliers, particularly China. Upstream integration, semiconductors, clean energy, and batteries are at the center of decoupling negotiations. In an uncertain context, this research is intended to conceptualize an adaptive integration strategy for middle-income countries in global automotive value chains. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_09-23 |
| By: | Oumayma Bourhriba; Badr Mandri |
| Abstract: | Le rôle des Investissements directs étrangers (IDE), comme catalyseur de croissance économique et facteur fondamental d’intégration dans l’économie mondiale, fait l’objet d’un grand consensus. Ce Policy Brief se focalise sur une dimension des IDE qui est le réinvestissement des bénéfices comme, non seulement une source de financement supplémentaire à travers l’expansion des IDE existants, mais également un fort signal des opportunités d’investissement pour les nouveaux investisseurs. L’objectif de ce Papier est de mettre en avant l’importance de cette composante des IDE et ses déterminants. Il apporte aussi un aperçu sur l’évolution du réinvestissement des IDE au Maroc et des politiques permettant de promouvoir ce potentiel. |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_01-23 |
| By: | Mounia Boucetta |
| Abstract: | Le taux d’activité des femmes marocaines (*) affiche un déclin devenu structurel depuis une vingtaine d’années. Ce déclin est encore plus critique vu le faible niveau de ce taux, considéré parmi les plus bas à l’échelle mondiale. Pourtant, plusieurs réformes, programmes et actions ont été menés ou sont en cours de déploiement pour améliorer les conditions de la femme, aussi bien au niveau économique que social, et dans les milieux urbain et rural. Sommes-nous face à un phénomène sociétal ou tout simplement devant des problématiques de croissance économique ? Quels enseignements peut-on tirer des différentes études et analyses menées dans ce sens et quels sont les leviers pour une politique plus efficiente qui produit des effets durables pour l’amélioration de l’autonomisation économique de la femme au Maroc ? (*) Le taux d’activité indique la part de la population qui participe ou cherche à participer à la production de biens et services dans la population totale du pays. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_18-23 |
| By: | Henri-Louis Vedie |
| Abstract: | Ce papier est consacré au Nouveau Modèle de Développement des provinces du Sud (NMDPS), lancé par Sa Majesté le Roi Mohammed VI dans son discours de Laâyoune du 6 novembre 2015. L’accent y sera mis sur les réalisations au titre de ce Nouveau Modèle de Développement durant la période 2016-2022. Dernier volet d'une insertion définitive de ces provinces au sein du Royaume, ce nouveau modèle est doté de moyens financiers en conséquence, passant de 77 MM de dhs à 81 MM de dhs, quelques mois plus tard. Et ce, pour financer des projets jugés prioritaires et en relais des centaines de projets plus modestes, mais répondant aux attentes immédiates des populations. Sur la période 2016-2019, le NMDPS évolue à un rythme soutenu, qu’il s’agisse de la réalisation des projets prioritaires ou ceux en relais. Cette étude montre que dans la région de Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra, qui à elle seule mobilise près de la moitié de l'enveloppe, le taux de démarrage des travaux en moyenne est de 70 %, avec des écarts sensibles selon les provinces. Même constat, à un niveau plus modeste, de plus de 50 % pour le taux d'engagement financier. La période 2020-2022, celle de la pandémie de la COVID-19, met en évidence un autre aspect de ce modèle, à savoir sa résilience à la crise sanitaire. Ce qui permet à ces Régions d'avoir en 2022 des taux de croissance et un PIB par habitant très supérieurs à la moyenne nationale. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_17-23 |