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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Massoud Karshenas (University of London); Valentine M. Moghadam (Northeastern University) |
| Abstract: | That women’s labor force participation in the Islamic Republic of Iran has been consistently low is well known, but explanations vary as to the principal causes. Moreover, many studies examine the female economically active population in aggregate, without sociodemographic distinctions. The puzzle is why – despite high educational attainment, rising age of marriage, smaller family size, and the country’s economic difficulties – women remain under-represented in the labor force. Drawing on household surveys, we put the spotlight on the waged and salaried employment patterns of urban married women, who dominate the female labor force, and we compare patterns in two time periods – the economic growth period of 2005-2007 and the economic crisis period of 2018-2020. In examining the structural and institutional factors that explain both their high levels of unemployment and their tendency to drop out of the labor force following marriage and childbirth, we highlight the role of sanctions, economic cycles, declining government recruitment, discriminatory laws, and gendered wage gaps. We also highlight similarities and differences between Iran and other countries in the Middle East and North African region. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1691&r=ara |
| By: | Jennifer C. Olmsted (Drew University); Bassam Yousif |
| Abstract: | To date analysis of the role of entrepreneurs in the Arab uprisings has been limited. We use micro level data highlighting entrepreneur grievances as one proxy for the role that class might have played in the Arab uprisings as well as examining entrepreneur opinions after the Arab uprisings. We find evidence that dissatisfaction with levels of corruption was particularly high in among entrepreneurs in Egypt, Syria and Yemen on the eve of the Arab uprisings, but we also find that Arab entrepreneurs throughout the region share concerns when it comes to macroeconomic stability, infrastructural short-comings and worker training, all of which are key to successful development. We also explore more recent data that indicate that entrepreneurs in a number of countries (some of which had regime changes, while others did not) remain concerned about corruption and various bureaucratic obstacles. However, we also notice that entrepreneurs had a wide range of often divergent views that varied according to size and country; these views were sometimes surprising and went against pre-conceptions of capitalists in the Middle East. Given the complexity of the grievances that triggered the Arab Uprisings, the data suggest no clear trend that could be said to forecast the uprisings, although the diversity of views of entrepreneurs presage to some extent the tensions surrounding post-uprising policy priorities, which in turn has contributed to the on-going policy impasse and instability in the region. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1685&r=ara |
| By: | Younes El Khattab (Hassan II University of Casablanca); Rachida El Yamani (University of Casablanca Morocco); Ahmed Hefnaoui (University of Casablanca Morocco) |
| Abstract: | The macroeconomic effects of the policy mix have been the subject of a rich array of theoretical literature. Our research paper further enriches the empirical literature and goes beyond a single open economy analysis by proposing a multi-country assessment of the policy mix in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, under the two hypotheses of monetary and fiscal dominance. We base our study on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach performed on secondary data over the period 1977-2021 for three MENA countries: Morocco, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Our data is sourced from World Development Indicators and includes five variables: Current account balance (percent of GDP) (CA), inflation rate (INF), GDP growth (annual percent) (GDP), money supply (M3), and government expenditure (GEXP). The results show that the coordination scheme choice has no significant effect on the policy mix effectiveness in the three countries. The policy mix in Morocco is more effective in preserving price stability whereas stabilization policies in Egypt are more effective in boosting economic activity. Because of its limited exposure to energy price risk (i.e., imported inflation), Saudi Arabia has a wider margin of maneuver in implementing growth-oriented policies without imperiling price stability. Considering that previous studies gave different views on whether monetary or fiscal policies are more effective in a single open economy analysis, to our knowledge, no relevant studies have performed a multi-country assessment of the policy mix in the MENA region. This research provides an empirical framework for analyzing the macroeconomic implications of monetary and fiscal policies in the MENA region, allowing us to draw interesting conclusions about the effectiveness of the policy mix in the sample countries. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1688&r=ara |
| By: | Assil El Mahmah (Ministry of Economy and Planning, Economic Advisor, Saudi Arabia) |
| Abstract: | The public sector plays a large role in many developing economies, but its effect on earnings inequality dynamics has not been widely studied. In this paper, we investigate the earnings inequality trends and their determinants in the decades before and after the Tunisian Revolution, focusing on the impact of public wage and employment policy changes. A recentered-influence function (RIF) decomposition is performed to decompose the change in earnings into wage structure and composition effects and to assess the contribution of various determinants of inequality change. We find that earnings inequality decreased significantly during the period of investigation in Tunisia, mainly due to the decrease in the public–private wage gap and in sector wage gaps on the demand side, and the decreasing education premia on the supply side. The increase in marginal returns to average routine-task intensity jobs, the falling return to experience, and the decreasing regional wage gap also contributed to declining earnings inequality, but to a lesser extent. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1684&r=ara |
| By: | Houda Haffoudhi (Université de Gabes); Brahim Guizani (École Supérieure de la Statistique et de l’Analyse de l’Information, 6 Rue des Métiers) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between financial development (FD), corruption, and the size of shadow economies in the MENA region from 1996 to 2018. An important contribution is the study of how FD and corruption can interplay to affect informality. Several pooled regressions are run on the entire sample and various subsamples in order to understand the heterogeneity that might exist among countries. Even after addressing the potential endogeneity problem of the variables, we find robust results showing that increases in corruption and FD reduce the size of the informal sector. Therefore, corruption plays the role of “greasing the wheels” in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Moreover, these two dimensions are substitutable in relation to the unofficial economy; the marginal impact of increasing along one dimension is higher when the other dimension is low. The subsample analysis reveals that the impacts of FD and corruption can be remarkably different between low-corruption and highly corrupt countries. Interestingly, the statistical significance of these two factors vanishes for the high-income countries. Obviously, the efforts against informality in the MENA region are multidimensional and dynamic. Further, at each stage of economic, financial, and institutional development, new factors may appear and gain importance. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1687&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Ali Marouani (IRD - Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne); Minh-Phuong Le (Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The public sector plays a large role in many developing economies, but its effect on earnings inequality dynamics has not been widely studied. In this paper, we investigate the earnings inequality trends and their determinants in the decades before and after the Tunisian Revolution, focusing on the impact of public wage and employment policy changes. A recentered-influence function (RIF) decomposition is performed to decompose the change in earnings into wage structure and composition effects and to assess the contribution of various determinants of inequality change. We find that earnings inequality decreased significantly during the period of investigation in Tunisia, mainly due to the decrease in the public–private wage gap and in sector wage gaps on the demand side, and the decreasing education premia on the supply side. The increase in marginal returns to average routine-task intensity jobs, the falling return to experience, and the decreasing regional wage gap also contributed to declining earnings inequality, but to a lesser extent. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1683&r=ara |
| By: | Abdelhadi Benghalem (Oran Graduate School of Economics); Samir B. Maliki (University of Tlemcen and ERF Research Fellow); Ouieme Sour (University of Tlemcen and ERF Research Associate) |
| Abstract: | Although a considerable body of research has examined the relationship between information and communication technology and the food production process, less attention has been paid to whether internet utilization impacts food production in North African countries. This research seeks to investigate the short- and long-run relationship between internet utilization and food production in North Africa. Yearly datasets from four countries (Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco) are used, covering the period 1990-2021. Given that the tested series are of mixed integrated levels of I (0) and I (I), the study employs a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The results show that internet usage and access to electricity favorably influence the food production index in both the long and short run. In the short run, food imports do not exhibit any significant effect on food production. In the long-run nexus, a considerable negative impact from food imports to food production is evident. The study concludes that internet usage represents a vital driver of food production and should be further strengthened by raising awareness of its importance in promoting food productivity among North African food producers. On the other hand, these results serve as a reminder for North African countries to establish a harmonious equilibrium between domestic food production and food imports. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1690&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Ismail Sabry (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of state-society relations (SSRs) in the industrial sector on sustainable economic growth in post-revolution Tunisia. The empirical part of the paper mainly relies on qualitative data collected from fieldwork interviews with the most important actors and publications of civil society organizations (CSOs). The paper suggests the presence of state capture as the defining characteristic of SSRs in post-revolution Tunisia. The combination of having powerful tycoons, a weaker state, and ineffectively organized social actors produced conditions that harmed sustainability. These circumstances allowed tycoons to violate environmental regulations and prevented the adoption of green innovation and green technologies. Two important industrial sectors with a notorious record of environmental pollution are studied: the textiles sector and the phosphate extraction industry. In the textiles sector, the comparative power of tycoons and multinational corporations (MNCs) allowed them to neglect regulations against health and safety hazards (HSH). The low value-added of the industry placed tycoons under low pressure to use more environmentally friendly technologies. The relatively lower commitment of international developmental organizations toward environmental hazards reduced the power of environmental CSOs’ resistance in the sector. The more labor-saving nature of suggested green technologies could have resulted in less enthusiasm toward these technologies. The prominence of a less dominant and incapable state in the phosphate extraction industry has, on the other hand, enabled environmental CSOs to be more effective in facing environmental violations. The lack of trust and different ranking of priorities between the UGTT and some environmental CSOs prevented the realization of a more productive outcome that would have led to more sustainable operations in the sector |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1686&r=ara |
| By: | Osiris Parcero; James Christopher Ryan |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the performance of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in terms of their achievements towards becoming knowledge-based economies. This is done through a comparison against 17 benchmark countries using a four pillars' framework comprising; (1) information and communication technology, (2) education, (3) innovation and (4) economy and regime. Results indicate that the UAE ranks slightly better than the median rank of the 19 compared countries while Qatar ranks somewhat below. Results also indicate that both countries lag considerably behind knowledge economy leaders; particularly evidenced in the innovation pillar. Policy recommendations are mainly addressed at further developing the two countries' research culture as well as improving the incentives to attract top quality researchers and highly talented workers. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.04214&r=ara |
| By: | M. Utku Özmen (TOBB University of Economics and Technology); Belgi Turan (TOBB University of Economics and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of an exogenous and sizable increase in minimum wage on child labor outcomes in Turkey. Using data from the 2012 and 2019 Child Labor Surveys, we employ a difference-in-differences method to compare the impact of minimum wage increases on children from minimum wage-earning families with children from other households. We find that minimum wage policies, which are set to alleviate poverty by increasing household income, can also reduce the prevalence of child labor. The results demonstrate the favorable impact of parental income on reducing the incidence of child labor, which constitutes an important part of the policy toolkit for combating child labor. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1682&r=ara |
| By: | Adel Ben Youssef (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Mounir Dahmani (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UGAF - Université de Gafsa - Sidi Ahmed Zarroug) |
| Abstract: | In the context of an increasingly digitized global marketplace, this study seeks to shed light on its adoption in developing countries, focusing on Morocco. Applying logit, probit, and conditional mixed-process probit models to a sample of 807 Moroccan firms, we identify key factors that influence e-commerce adoption. The results show that younger, innovation-driven firms and those with a highly educated workforce tend to adopt e-commerce more readily. However, digital skills required in hiring do not significantly affect adoption, suggesting a complex relationship between digital skills and e-commerce use. The results also show that firms that are active on digital platforms and engage in innovative practices are more likely to adopt e-commerce. Therefore, this study argues for the need to improve digital skills training and for firms to establish a presence on digital platforms and promote innovation. On the policy front, the study suggests the promotion of supportive policies such as financial assistance, improved Internet infrastructure, and robust regulatory frameworks. As an important starting point for future research, these findings underscore the complexities of e-commerce adoption in Morocco and can guide further research, particularly in the context of similar emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | technology adoption, e-commerce, facilitating conditions, qualitative, Moroccan firms, logit, probit, conditional mixed process-probit model |
| Date: | 2023–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04374231&r=ara |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University); Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota, Humphrey School of Public Affairs); Ruby Cheung (St. Catherine University) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the new Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS) 2022, the first nationally representative survey in Sudan in almost a decade. The paper details the design of the survey, including the topics covered by this multi-purpose household survey and the complexities of the sampling strategy, which over-sampled refugees and the internally displaced. The training, fieldwork, resulting sample, and weights are described. Key demographic and labor market indicators are then compared to other, older nationally representative data sources, both to assess the validity of the SLMPS data and update our understanding of Sudan’s labor market. The rich, publicly available data of the SLMPS provide substantial opportunities for researchers to better understand the evolution of Sudan’s labor market, economy, and society. |
| Keywords: | survey, public use data, labor market, sample weights, Sudan |
| JEL: | J00 C81 C83 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:406&r=ara |
| By: | Mounir Dahmani (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UGAF - Université de Gafsa - Sidi Ahmed Zarroug); Adel Ben Youssef (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | The platform economy has emerged as a transformative force in various industries, reshaping consumer behavior and the way businesses operate in the digital age. Understanding the factors that influence the adoption of these platforms is essential for their continued development and widespread use. This study examines the determinants of economic platform adoption in Tunisia by extending the widely used unified theory of acceptance and use of technology 2 (UTAUT2) model with a privacy calculus model. By applying the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) technique, the research provides significant insight. The results highlight the critical influence of factors such as performance expectancy, habit formation, trust in technology, perceived risk, privacy concerns, and price value on users' behavioral intentions and actual usage of the platforms. These findings provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics surrounding the adoption of the platform economy in developing countries and offer valuable insight for stakeholders. By leveraging this knowledge, stakeholders can foster an inclusive digital ecosystem, drive economic growth, and create an environment conducive to the widespread adoption and use of the platform economy in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | economic platforms, user behavior, UTAUT2 model, privacy calculus model, PLS-SEM, Tunisia |
| Date: | 2023–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04374239&r=ara |
| By: | Fadia Panosetti; Laurence Roudart |
| Date: | 2023–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/364796&r=ara |
| By: | Patrick Rehill; Nicholas Biddle |
| Abstract: | Causal machine learning methods can be used to search for treatment effect heterogeneity in high-dimensional datasets even where we lack a strong enough theoretical framework to select variables or make parametric assumptions about data. This paper uses causal machine learning methods to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in the case of an experimental study carried out in Morocco which evaluated the effect of conditionalizing a cash transfer program on school attendance compared to a labelled cash transfer. We show that there is little heterogeneity in effects with the average treatment effect across three different conditioning policies all being negative. We then explore if there are any variables in the dataset of 1936 pre-treatment variables that are particularly strong predictors of heterogeneity to try to understand this effect. While there are some variables we expected to be important here based on our theoretical framework, most are atheoretical variables whose effects are difficult to interpret. Household spending variables and child time-use variables are particularly important, however no variables have particularly large effects. The second purpose of this paper is to demonstrate and reflect upon a causal machine learning approach to policy evaluation. In this vein we suggest that findings that are difficult to interpret in this way are not surprising given the atheoretical methodology. We reflect that causal machine learning methods should not replace existing evaluation methodologies, but rather could be a useful tool for working with high-dimensional data and generating hypotheses. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.07075&r=ara |
| By: | Ufuk Can |
| Abstract: | [TR] 6 subat 2023 tarihinde Kahramanmaras’ta art arda meydana gelen ve “Asrin Felaketi” olarak da nitelenen buyuk depremler sonucunda 11 ilimiz buyuk zarar gormus ve bu iller afet bolgesi ilan edilmistir. Bu calismada, Kahramanmaras depremlerinin bolgesel ihracat uzerindeki etkisi sentetik kontrol metodu ile analiz edilmekte, bulgular Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi bunyesinde reel sektor temsilcileriyle yapilan saha gorusmeleri isiginda detaylandirilmaktadir. 2023 yili subat ile Eylul aylarini kapsayan donemde bolge genelindeki deprem kaynakli ihracat kaybi yaklasik 2, 1 milyar ABD dolari olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Ýhracattaki daralma oransal olarak siralandiginda, yuzde 43, yuzde 33, 8, yuzde 31, 9 ve yuzde 30 ile Adiyaman, Kahramanmaras, Osmaniye ve Hatay; hacimsel olarak siralandiginda ise, 925, 6 milyon ABD dolari, 750, 9 milyon ABD dolari ve 300, 8 milyon ABD dolari ile Gaziantep, Hatay ve Kahramanmaras on plana cikmaktadir. Ayni donemde Mersin’in ihracatinin yuzde 19, 5 artmasinin bolge icerisinde kayan talebin bir yansimasi oldugu degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] On 6 February 2023, Kahramanmaraþ experienced major consecutive earthquakes, also described as the “Disaster of the Century”, as of a result of which 11 provinces suffered significant damage and were declared a disaster area. In this study, the impact of Kahramanmaraþ earthquakes on regional exports is analyzed by the synthetic control method, and the findings are detailed in the light of onsite interviews of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye with real sector representatives. The earthquake-induced export loss in the region between February and September 2023 is estimated to be around USD 2.1 billion. When the contraction in exports is listed proportionally, Adýyaman, Kahramanmaraþ, Osmaniye and Hatay are at the top with 43 percent, 33.8 percent, 31.9 percent and 30 percent, respectively; and when it is listed by volume, Gaziantep, Hatay and Kahramanmaraþ are at the top with USD 925.6 million, USD 750.9 million and USD 300.8 million, respectively. It is evaluated that the 19.5 percent increase in Mersin’s exports in the same period is the result of the shift in demand within the region. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2402&r=ara |
| By: | Klein, Anna |
| Abstract: | Der Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Entwicklung, den Angeboten und der Nachfrage von All-inclusiveReisen. Der All-inclusive-Urlaub hat in den letzten Jahren ein negatives Image abgelegt und erfreut sich zunehmender Beliebtheit bei deutschen Reisenden, insbesondere in Ländern wie der Türkei, Ägypten und der Dominikanischen Republik. Das Konzept spricht vor allem Familien mit Kindern an, die nach Sicherheit und Entspannung suchen. Ein Fallbeispiel eines All-inclusive-Hotels in der Türkei, das Perissia Hotel, zeigt die steigenden Ansprüche der Gäste und die Herausforderungen für die Hotels, diesen gerecht zu werden. Kritisch betrachtet wird das All-inclusive-Konzept wegen der negativen Bilanz in Bezug auf Nachhaltigkeit, Lebensmittelverschwendung und der Abgrenzung von der lokalen Kultur. Es werden jedoch auch Ansätze gezeigt, wie Hotels und Gäste dem entgegenwirken können. |
| Abstract: | This article looks at the development, supply and demand for all-inclusive holidays. All-inclusive vacations have shed their negative image in recent years and are becoming increasingly popular with German travelers, especially in countries such as Turkey, Egypt and the Dominican Republic. The concept particularly appeals to families with children who are looking for safety and relaxation. A case study of an all-inclusive hotel in Turkey, the Perissia Hotel, shows the increasing demands of guests and the challenges for hotels to meet them. The all-inclusive concept is viewed critically due to its negative impact on sustainability, food waste and its detachment from the local culture. However, approaches are also shown as to how hotels and guests can counteract this. |
| Keywords: | All inclusive, Pauschalreise, Türkei |
| JEL: | O |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhht:281776&r=ara |