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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Gasmi, Farid; Kouakou, Dorgyles; Noumba Um, Paul; Rojas Milla, Pedro |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical application and analysis of the social contract in MENA countries based on the conceptual framework proposed by Loewe et al. (2021). We suggest a simple operational model synthesizing a social contract's three main characteristics: Participation, Protection, and Provision, between a government and its citizens. This empirical "3-P" framework allows us to investigate the role that government provision and protection may have on citizen participation, which is particularly pertinent given the political and economic development of MENA countries. We compare our evaluation of the health of MENA countries' social contract to that of OECD countries, and find empirical evidence that the social benefits provided to citizens through improved delivery of basic services have come at the cost of impaired political Participation. This feature of the social contract in MENA may be considered one of the root causes of the social turmoil some countries have been struggling with in recent decades. Digital transformation is one potentially powerful channel through which the relationship between government and citizens can improve, and we find that it has a three-year lagged positive effect on the quality of the social contract in MENA and that this effect is inversely U-shaped. This suggests that structural and institutional improvements in MENA countries are called for before the quality of their social contract reaches levels comparable to those of OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | Development; social contract; digital transformation; MENA; OECD |
| JEL: | L96 L97 O10 |
| Date: | 2023–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:128020&r=ara |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens; Dorosh, Paul A.; Resnick, Danielle; Siddig, Khalid; William, Amy |
| Abstract: | This policy note summarizes the key findings from the following four research papers prepared by the International Food Policy Research Institute with financial support by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID): 1. Bottlenecks in Sudan’s Wheat Value Chains: Insights from Surveys 2. Evaluating Cereal Market (Dis)Integration in Sudan 3. Distributional Consequences of Wheat Policy in Sudan: A Simulation Model Analysis 4. Political Economy of Wheat Value Chains in Post-Revolution Sudan |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, wheat, subsidies, food security, markets, value chains, food prices, bread, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:1&r=ara |
| By: | Chantal Berman; Killian Clarke; Rima Majed |
| Abstract: | Scholarly logic holds that revolutionary movements are unlikely to break out in democracies, where citizens may simply remove unpopular leaders through elections. And yet the twenty-first century has witnessed a global series of uprisings against regimes that are nominally democratic—in that they regularly hold competitive elections—but are otherwise deeply broken, run by kleptocratic networks of elites who often fail to deliver vital services. |
| Keywords: | Lebanon, Iraq, protest, Democracy |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-51&r=ara |
| By: | Assaad, Ragui (University of Minnesota); Aydemir, Abdurrahman (Sabanci University); Dayioglu-Tayfur, Meltem (Middle East Technical University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the wage returns to an extra year of primary school using a policy reform in Egypt, which reduced compulsory primary schooling from 6 to 5 years. Since this policy changed the duration of primary school while providing the same diploma, we can estimate the human capital effects holding the sheepskin effects constant. We find that the wage returns to an extra year of primary school for Egyptian men aged 24–44 is a statistically insignificant 2–4 percent. Despite the low returns for the overall population, the returns are much higher for men born in rural areas and men whose fathers have low levels of education—indicating important human capital effects for underprivileged boys. Consistent with this result, we find that the policy effects of a one-year reduction in primary schooling on schooling attainment at various levels are more adverse for underprivileged boys. Our findings, therefore, suggest that such a policy could be particularly detrimental for students from lower socioeconomic groups—contributing to increased inequality. |
| Keywords: | returns to schooling, early human capital investment, instrumental variables, compulsory education duration, Egypt |
| JEL: | J18 J31 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16037&r=ara |
| By: | Ouala, Samira |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this paper is to assess the unilateral impact of the establishment of the African Free Trade Area on the Algerian economy. Therefore, we used a computable general equilibrium model, applied on an Algerian social accounting matrix from 2018. In fact, the analysis of the impact of this agreement is based on two simulations: the first consists of evaluating the elimination of half the tariff barriers, while the second simulation is devoted to the total elimination of tariff barriers. The impact study is measured on growth, income, employment and internal and external balance. Where, trade liberalization in both scenarios has a neuter effect on GDP. Furthermore, trade increases in all scenarios, increasing import bills which increase considerably from the African zone. Moreover, the simulation, causes a decrease in the State’s revenues. Hence, the government deficit in relation to GDP would increase in the both scenarios. Finally, the impact on welfare, shows a marginal gain in household welfare. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333444&r=ara |
| By: | Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy; Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. We utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically affect inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | External Debt; Exchange rate; Inflation; Money supply; NARDL; Sudan |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F34 O24 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116856&r=ara |
| By: | Nor Anis Shafai (Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Noor Hafizha Muhamad Yusuf Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Noor Sharida Badri Shah Author-3-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Norhisam Bulot Author-4-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - Despite much previous research on the issue, dividend policy remains an unsolved conundrum in corporate finance. By considering this, the goal of this research is to use the Generalized Method of Moments to examine dividend behaviour by identifying the key determinants of dividend policy in three different countries with different market microstructures: Singapore (developed market), Malaysia (developing market), and Saudi Arabia (emerging market). Methodology/Technique - The study uses data from each country's top 100 listed firms from 2007 until 2016. The results suggest that different determinants influence firms' dividend policies for the three countries. Findings - For Singapore as a developed market, profitability, and size are shown to be significantly and positively related to the dividend payout ratio, whereas leverage, business risk, and growth opportunities exert a significant negative effect. Meanwhile, for Malaysia (a developing market), only firm size is a significant and positive determinant. However, leverage and business risk are negatively and significantly associated with the dividend payout ratio. Conversely, for Saudi Arabia as an emerging market, firm size and leverage positively and negatively influence the dividend payout ratio. Novelty - Therefore, this study employed the generalized method of moments (GMM) to uncover novel discoveries. The findings should motivate analysts, policymakers, institutional investors, and investors to investigate the dividend policy conundrum, mainly for three different market segmentations. Type of Paper - Empirical." |
| Keywords: | Dividend behaviour, market microstructure, and Generalized Method of Moments. |
| JEL: | G32 M14 |
| Date: | 2023–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:afr222&r=ara |
| By: | Kaoutar Benkhedda (ENCGO - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion, ENCG - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion - UH2MC - Université Hassan II [Casablanca]); Saliha El Hakmi; Asmae Bennaceur |
| Abstract: | In the current context, with the opening of international markets and international trade, all companies must face the challenges of improving their tools, methods, processes, in particular improving the quality of their services and ensuring the proper operation of the supply chain in order to achieve a high level of organizational and interorganizational performance. In this sense, ports play an important role in international trade and are a key factor in the competitiveness of the port logistics chain. In this context, productivity and performance are the main concerns of all port actors. However, the port sector is characterized by the complexity of operations and the diversity of port functions, especially because of the multiplicity and dispersion of stakeholders and the divergence of their priorities and interests. This research develops an exploratory qualitative study on the performance of port logistics in the specific Moroccan context. To do this, and in order to identify the determinants of port logistics performance, a review of previous work on port logistics performance was carried out. Following this, a comparative analysis was undertaken to identify the differences and similarities between the factors considered determinants of port performance as they exist in the literature and the statements made by the respondents. The results support the major role of the quality of service, the delay, the assurance of the goods, the good coordination and the cost. However, infrastructure and new technologies remain an essential criterion for the smooth running of the activity. |
| Abstract: | Dans le contexte actuel, avec l'ouverture des marchés internationaux et le commerce international, toutes les entreprises doivent faire face aux défis d'amélioration de leurs outils, leurs méthodes, leurs processus, notamment faire progresser la qualité de leurs services et assurer le bon fonctionnement de la chaîne logistique afin d'atteindre un niveau élevé de performance organisationnelle et interorganisationnelle. Dans ce sens, les ports jouent un rôle important dans le commerce international et constituent un facteur clé de la compétitivité de la chaine logistique portuaire. Dans ce contexte, la productivité et la performance sont les principales préoccupations de tous les acteurs portuaires. Cependant, le secteur portuaire se caractérise par la complexité des opérations et la diversité des fonctions portuaires, surtout, à cause de la multiplicité et la dispersion des parties prenantes et la divergence de leurs priorités et intérêts. Cette recherche développe une étude qualitative exploratoire sur la performance de la logistique portuaire dans le contexte spécifique marocain. Pour ce faire, et afin d'identifier les déterminants de la performance logistique portuaire, un dépouillement des travaux antérieurs sur la performance logistique portuaire a été effectué. Suite à quoi une analyse comparative a été engagée pour repérer les différences et similitudes entre les facteurs considérés comme déterminants de la performance portuaire telles qu'elles existent dans la littérature et les propos avancés par les enquêtés. Les résultats soutiennent le rôle majeur de la qualité de service, le délai, l'assurance de la marchandise, la bonne coordination et le coût. Toutefois, l'infrastructure et les nouvelles technologies demeurent néanmoins un critère essentiel pour le bon déroulement de l'activité. |
| Date: | 2023–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03986425&r=ara |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | On Monday, October 10th, 2022, the Sudan Strategy Support Program (Sudan SSP) held the inaugural full-day Research and Policy Conference dubbed “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Sudan†at the Corinthia Hotel in Khartoum, Sudan. This event was organized in partnership with local and international organizations working on the Food Security and Agricultural Transformation themes in Sudan. They include the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD), Mamoun Behairy Centre for Economic and Social Studies and Research in Africa (MBC), Sudanese Researcher Foundation (SRF) and the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA). The conference brought together about 120 food security and nutrition experts from civil society, private sector, academia and international organizations and many other online participants who followed the proceedings on a livestream. The conference happened against a backdrop of the timely discussions on the risk of rising poverty and food insecurity to Sudanese people, the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, and global increase in fuel and commodity prices and the slow post COVID-19 recovery. |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, research, policies, food security, agriculture, stakeholders, agricultural transformation, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:3&r=ara |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | - Average international prices of wheat, sorghum, rice, and sugar slightly increased in Q4 of 2022 compared to Q3. Import parity prices decreased during the same period because of the reduction in the freight cost to Port Sudan. - Annual inflation2 decreased from three-digit inflation (260.6 percent) in 2022Q1 to 92.6 percent in 2022Q4. - Quarterly changes in the price of non-volatile commodities (core inflation) 3 increased slightly in Q4 compared to Q3 of 2022 due to the increase in the housing rents, education, communication, and processed food prices. - Retail prices of food commodities were relatively stable during the last two quarters of 2022 com pared to the previous quarters of 2021 and 2022. - Nominal wholesale prices of grains in Khartoum State increased gradually from 2021Q2 to reach a peak in 2022Q3, before dropping in real and nominal terms in 2022Q4. - Although the national average of causal labor daily wage was increasing over time nominally (2021Q2–2022Q4), it was decreasing in real terms in 2022Q4. - Poorer urban and rural households (bottom 40 percent) were more affected by the changes in the prices of food and beverage commodities during 2022Q4 than richer households (top 60 percent). - Blue Nile, Darfur, and Eastern regions have the highest food insecure population classified in crisis or emergency. |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, prices, wheat, sorghum, rice, sugar, costs, inflation, commodities, housing, education, communication, wages, households, Blue Nile River, Darfur, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:6&r=ara |
| By: | Brancati, Dawn; Birnir, Johanna; Qutaiba Idlbi, Qutaiba Idlbi |
| Abstract: | Lockdown measures, widely used to stop the spread of disease in crises, we argue, are likely to reduce non-state actor violence, especially in urban and non-base areas. These measures deplete actors’ resources, reduce the number of high-value civilian targets, and make it logistically more difficult to conduct attacks. Using the example of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and taking advantage of the exogenous nature of COVID-19 lockdowns, we find that curfews and travel bans significantly reduce violence, especially in populated and non-base areas. These effects are most likely due to short-term changes in ISIS’s targets and logistics rather than its resources. These findings provide important insights into the security aspects of public health crises and offer novel findings into the general effectiveness of two common counterinsurgency tools. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19;pandemic;violence; terrorism; ISIS |
| JEL: | I0 I1 |
| Date: | 2023–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116781&r=ara |
| By: | Karamanis, Dimitrios; Kechrinioti, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | The ongoing Greek-Turkish antagonism has triggered the interest of defense economists to explore whether the two nations are engaged in an arms race. The issues that divide them are complex and rooted in years of conflict and mutual distrust. However, efforts to resolve their disputes have so far been unsuccessful, and rapprochements have invariably been short-lived. Following gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean, the states nearly came to blows in 2020 and enacted military expansion plans, further risking escalation. Since empirical studies examining the relationship between their military expenditures do not offer common answers, we use a novel Bayesian technique applied to VAR models to investigate the possible interdependence between four different proxies of the states’ physical arms build-up. Based on an annual dataset running from 1960 to 2020, we find that a shock in a country’s military expenditure does not have an impact on the opponent’s spending. Thus, in distinction to those focusing on the costly maintenance of strategic balance, it is important that these rivals strengthen their cooperation and jointly contribute to the advancement of peace and economic development across the entire area. |
| Keywords: | Interstate rivalry; military expenditures; Greece; Turkey; BVAR models |
| JEL: | C11 C53 F52 H56 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116827&r=ara |
| By: | Hèla Yousfi (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | La révolution tunisienne du 17 décembre 2010, partie des régions de l'intérieur a dévoilé l'ampleur des disparités régionales en matière de développement et a remis la question territoriale au centre des débats politiques. La décentralisation qui doit mettre fin à cette injustice sociale et territoriale compte parmi les réformes qui font indéniablement l'objet d‘un consensus national. Ainsi, la nouvelle constitution tunisienne de 2014 consolide les principes de la décentralisation et de la bonne gouvernance et stipule, dans son article 12, que « l'État agit en vue d‘assurer la justice sociale, le développement durable et l'équilibre entre les régions, en tenant compte des indicateurs de développement et du principe de l'inégalité compensatrice ». Les principes de la décentralisation désormais inscrits dans la constitution font du développement des capacités des collectivités locales un enjeu majeur. C‘est l'une des étapes les plus cruciales de la construction de la deuxième République.Les autorités publiques ont donc décidé avec le concours financier et technique de la Banque mondiale de mettre au point un programme de développement urbain à moyen terme dont l'enjeu est la redistribution des fonctions de décision entre pouvoir central et pouvoir local pour répondre aux besoins de la population locale tout en accordant la priorité au développement et à la justice sociale. Les deux objectifs principaux assignés à ce projet par la Banque mondiale sont l'amélioration des performances des collectivités locales par le renforcement des capacités administratives et financières, d‘une part, la participation des citoyens à la prise des décisions, d‘autre part. La question centrale qui se pose est la suivante : Comment passer du discours général et universel sur les vertus de la décentralisation à un nouveau contrat social entre l'Etat, les collectivités locales et les citoyens, accepté et partagé par tout le monde ? |
| Date: | 2023–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04004233&r=ara |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | On Monday, October 10th, 2022, the Sudan Strategy Support Program (Sudan SSP) held the inaugural full-day Research and Policy Conference dubbed “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Sudan†at the Corinthia Hotel in Khartoum, Sudan. This event was organized in partnership with local and international organizations working on the Food Security and Agricultural Transformation themes in Sudan. They include the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD), Mamoun Behairy Centre for Economic and Social Studies and Research in Africa (MBC), Sudanese Researcher Foundation (SRF) and the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA). The conference brought together about 120 food security and nutrition experts from civil society, private sector, academia and international organizations and many other online participants who followed the proceedings on a livestream. The conference happened against a backdrop of the timely discussions on the risk of rising poverty and food insecurity to Sudanese people, the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, and global increase in fuel and commodity prices and the slow post COVID-19 recovery. |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, research, policies, food security, agriculture, stakeholders, agricultural transformation, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:3a&r=ara |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Siddig, Khalid |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food prices, food security, inflation, prices, commodities, economic situation, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:5a&r=ara |