nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2022‒06‒27
27 papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Making sense of Turkey's cautious reaction to power shifts in Tunisia: Turkey adjusts its foreign policy in Europe's southern neighbourhood By Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat; Aksoy, Hürcan Aslı
  2. A thaw in relations between Egypt and Turkey: Weaknesses in foreign policy and the economy bring the regimes in Cairo and Ankara closer together By Aksoy, Hürcan Aslı; Roll, Stephan
  3. Normalisation and Realignment in the Middle East: A new, conflict-prone regional order takes shape By Asseburg, Muriel; Henkel, Sarah Ch.
  4. Making EU-Turkey cooperation on migration sustainable: A greater focus on the Turkish host society is required By Adar, Sinem; Püttmann, Friedrich
  5. Canal Istanbul: Turkey's controversial megaproject. Its likely impacts on the Montreux Convention and regional stability By Eldem, Tuba
  6. Turkey-UAE relations: Economic cooperation against the backdrop of geopolitical incompatibility By Dalay, Galip
  7. German arms exports and the militarisation of Arab States' foreign policies By Hüllinghorst, Yannik; Roll, Stephan
  8. Decarbonising EU-Turkey energy cooperation: Challenges and prospects By Tastan, Kadri
  9. Three scenarios for the Yemen war: Cease fire negotiations, North-South confrontation or division By Transfeld, Mareike
  10. Entry into Marriage, Motherhood and the Arab Spring: Evidence from Egypt By Samia Ferhat; Rozenn Hotte; Philip Verwimp
  11. Financial Literacy and Cash Holdings in Turkey By Mustafa Recep Bilici; Saygin Cevik
  12. The motion before Turkey's Constitutional Court to ban the pro-Kurdish HDP: An example of the entanglement of politics and the judiciary, and a bad omen for a peaceful solution to the Kurdish conflict By Can, Osman
  13. Key factors for the emergence of innovative Paytech companies in Morocco: Innovation in mobile payment applications for Digital Wallets By Mohammed Eddaou
  14. Towards Jewish-Arab normalization in Israel: Israeli Arabs want a more pragmatic politics while Jewish parties court the Arab vote By Averbukh, Lidia
  15. Challenges to Iran's role in Iraq in the post-Soleimani era: Complex rivalries, fragmented alliances, declining soft power By Azizi, Hamidreza
  16. Erdoğan and the Turkish opposition revisit the Kurdish question By Yeğen, Mesut
  17. Turkey's stakes in the Russia-NATO rivalry: The Ukraine crisis and beyond By Dalay, Galip; Isachenko, Daria
  18. analysis of inclusive growth in selected Maghreb countries By Jacques Bakole
  19. The Crime Effect of Refugees By Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude; Mocan, Naci; Tumen, Semih; Turan, Belgi
  20. Political prisoners in Sisi's Egypt: Arbitrary detention as an obstacle to German stabilisation efforts By Jannack, Patricia; Roll, Stephan
  21. How to Mitigate Transportation Emissions in Saudi Arabia? The Role of Energy Price Governance By Sa'd Shannak; Jeyhun Mikayilov; Rubal Dua
  22. Perceptions in Turkey about the war in Ukraine: Implications for the future of EU-Turkey relations By Adar, Sinem
  23. Erdoğan the builder in northern Cyprus: Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" cements a shift in Turkey's Cyprus policy and reinforces Ankara's isolation By Seufert, Günter
  24. Migration and University Education: An Empirical (Macro) Link By Akkoyunlu, Şule; Epstein, Gil S.; Gang, Ira N.
  25. The pandemic and governance in the Maghreb: A moment of truth. The Covid-19 pandemic tests the sustainability of differenct governance approaches By Fakir, Intissar; Werenfels, Isabelle
  26. Palestinian elections, finally: Significance, challenges and European responsibilities By Asseburg, Muriel
  27. Pour un environnement institutionnel et financier favorable à l’investissement par les jeunes dans l’agriculture et les systèmes alimentaires en Tunisie By Yannick Fiedler; Mohamed Elloumi; Abdallah Ben Saad; Emna Ouertani; Arbia Labidi

  1. By: Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat; Aksoy, Hürcan Aslı
    Abstract: Ankara adopted notably toned-down language towards Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed's power grab and avoided calling it a coup, although it considers the course of events as a potential threat that could endanger its policies towards North Africa. In fact, Turkey revised its approach to Tunisia after secular parties became more prominent in Tunisian politics following the 2014 elections. This policy adjustment consists of developing a balanced network of relations by reaching out to secular parties on the one hand, but retaining close ties with the Islamist Ennahda party on the other hand. To this end, Ankara is giving weight to defence diplomacy and soft power. This tactful approach is in line with Turkey's efforts to strengthen its geo­strategic and geo-economic ties with the Maghreb countries and overlaps with on­going normalisation efforts between Ankara and Arab capitals. But this approach is limited to a pragmatic policy adjustment. Germany and other European states should see this as an opportunity to encourage regional de-escalation and contribute to a constructive regional dialogue.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:522021&r=
  2. By: Aksoy, Hürcan Aslı; Roll, Stephan
    Abstract: The visit of a high-ranking Turkish delegation to Cairo in early May 2021 indicates a turning-point in the relations between Turkey and Egypt. Since the 2013 military coup in Egypt, the leaders of these two Mediterranean countries had been extremely hos-tile towards each other. The current rapprochement, which might lead in a best case scenario to a resumption of diplomatic relations, thus comes as a surprise. But it is limited in scope. The main obstacles to a closer partnership between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Abdel Fatah al-Sisi are differences in the ideological foundations of their regimes. The aim of these current shifts in foreign policy is to increase the presidents' room for manoeuvre. Their regimes are under pressure due to regional, international, and domestic developments. Germany and the EU should support the normalisation attempts because they can contribute to de-escalation in the region. Both regimes' current weaknesses in foreign policy and the economy provide an opportunity to call for political change in other areas.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:392021&r=
  3. By: Asseburg, Muriel; Henkel, Sarah Ch.
    Abstract: Between 2020 and 2021, Israel concluded normalisation agreements with four Arab states. They were celebrated internationally as a breakthrough. Meanwhile, since 2018, and largely unnoticed by the public, Arab states have started repairing their relations with Syria. Finally, in January 2021, Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ended their boycott of Qatar during the meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Al-Ula, Saudi Arabia. Changing assessments of the regional security situation and converging interests have enabled these rapprochements. However, these developments do not mean that the region is moving towards peace and stability; on the contrary, long-lasting conflicts remain unresolved and the threat perceptions of third actors are being exacerbated. Germany and its partners in the EU should avoid being co-opted by local and regional conflicting parties and should instead focus on supporting regional conflict management.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:452021&r=
  4. By: Adar, Sinem; Püttmann, Friedrich
    Abstract: Managing irregular migration is a focal point of EU-Turkey relations today. European perspectives on this issue, for the most part, are split into two camps: a 'caring' one, which concentrates on the well-being of refugees, and a 'concerned' one, which focusses on the external border security of the European Union (EU) and the anxieties of EU citizens. Widely overlooked in the European discussions is the mounting social and political discontent in Turkey, which is hosting the largest refugee population worldwide while facing a serious economic crisis alongside a severe governance dead­lock. To bear fruits in the long run, any EU-Turkey migration cooperation should account for this growing discontent. After all, neither the advancement of the rights of refugees in Turkey nor reliable security cooperation is possible without accord by the Turkish political class and society. To this end, the EU should signal to Turkey its intention to resettle more refugees and support local integration efforts more proactively.
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:72022&r=
  5. By: Eldem, Tuba
    Abstract: On June 26, the Turkish government began constructing the first bridge over Canal Istanbul, the huge waterway project designed to run parallel to the Bosporus Strait. Ankara has presented the megaproject as a strategic move that will turn Turkey into a logistics base and grant it geopolitical leverage over both regional and international trade and transportation routes. However, Turkey's political opposition considers Canal Istanbul to be a rent-seeking project designed to attract international - prob­ably Chinese and Arab - investment in the hope of reviving Turkey's deteriorating economy. The Canal may also affect the Montreux Convention, the decades old treaty that governs the Turkish Straits. Given the rivalry between the US and Russia, questions around the Montreux Convention will add another point of contention, increase tensions and may also present serious consequences for Turkey.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:432021&r=
  6. By: Dalay, Galip
    Abstract: Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are taking steps to mend their ties. The UAE, it seems, is eager to refashion its image as a bridge-builder in regional politics and hedge its options in the face of the US downsizing its regional security commitments in the Middle East. Turkey, on its end, is eager to get out of the political/ideo­logical box that it has found itself in since the onset of the Arab Uprisings and to lessen the economic cost of its geopolitical activism in the time of a deepening eco­nomic crisis at home. Though economic interests can bring the two countries closer, geopolitics can just as easily drive them apart. In spite of a seeming thaw, major sources of tension in these relations remain.
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:12022&r=
  7. By: Hüllinghorst, Yannik; Roll, Stephan
    Abstract: Measured in terms of licenses issued, Arab states will again be among the main recipients of German military equipment exports in 2020. This continues a trend that has been evident since the early 2000s and especially since 2010, all despite Germany's recently extended ban on arms exports to Saudi Arabia. From 2018 to 2020, the value of export licences for the five most important Arab buyer countries has decreased compared to the previous period. However, their share of total export licences is still over 25 percent. In view of regional developments, this is problematic. The foreign policies of the biggest customers have changed in recent years as they become less predictable and more willing to use military means to assert their interests. Military equipment exports could thus contribute to further escalation of the numerous interstate conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, thereby posing great risks to Germany and the EU. Against the backdrop of Germany and the EU's own export guidelines, it is therefore advised to halt exports of military products to these countries.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:62021&r=
  8. By: Tastan, Kadri
    Abstract: Russia's attack on Ukraine has once again highlighted Europe's heavy dependence on Russian natural gas and thus, among other things, underlined the significance of energy cooperation between the European Union (EU) and Turkey. Traditionally, Turkish-European energy relations have prioritised the diversification of energy resources in the face of Europe's dependence on Russia. The new emerging political, geopolitical, and energy context will have repercussions on Turkish-European energy relation. However, it is the ambitious process of decarbonisation of the economy and energy launched by the EU that will decisively shape the nature and future of Turkey-EU energy relations. Indeed, both European and Turkish interests related to energy security, energy affordability, and climate change mitigation require EU-Turkey cooperation in the decarbonisation process, which is expected to be very challenging. Energy transition is the key to medium- and long-term energy security for both sides.
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:232022&r=
  9. By: Transfeld, Mareike
    Abstract: The future of the Yemen conflict will be decided about 120 kilometres east of the capital Sanaa, in the city of Marib. So far, the internationally recognised Yemeni gov­ernment, supported by Saudi Arabia, has been able to ward off a two-year offensive from the Houthi movement, which originates from the north of the country and is aiming to take hold of the eastern provincial capital. The Houthis have had the mili­tary advantage, but as of January 2022, are being pushed on the defensive by the United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed Giants Brigade, which is advancing into the governorate of Marib from the south. Conceivable scenarios for the course of the conflict are: 1) ceasefire negotiations after a successful defence of Marib; 2) the fall of the provincial capital as the starting point of a shift of the conflict to the southern parts of the country; or 3) a negotiated division of the country with participation of the UAE and Iran. Against this backdrop, Germany and its European partners should support regional powers' attempts at rapprochement and begin discussing new political per­spectives for the future of Yemen with civil society and parties to the conflict.
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:62022&r=
  10. By: Samia Ferhat; Rozenn Hotte; Philip Verwimp
    Abstract: The Egyptian Revolution has been shown to have triggered important economic and social changes, including the reduction of gender inequalities. However, few has been said on the impact of the Arab Spring on the age of entry into marriage and motherhood, which are key issues for women’s welfare. To shed light on this question, we combine a dataset of the Egyptian Revolution, with the 2018 wave of the Egyptian Labor MarketPanel Survey. We rely on quasi-experimental geographical and historical variations in the level of violence, to build a difference-in-differences analysis. Our main findings are that women residing in rural areas who were aged between 16 and 20 at the time of the Egyptian Revolution, marry earlier than the previous cohorts, and have children earlier as well. These results tend to moderate previous evidence on the increase in women’sempowerment following the Arab Spring.
    Keywords: J12, J16, 055
    Date: 2022–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/344132&r=
  11. By: Mustafa Recep Bilici; Saygin Cevik
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of financial literacy level on cash holdings in Turkey. Utilizing the Methods of Payment Survey, which includes both financial literacy and cash-related data, we first investigate the fundamentals of financial literacy in Turkey. Based on the performance on financial literacy questions, we categorize respondents into three groups. Subsequently, we analyze how cash holding behavior differs among financial literacy groups. Our results reveal that financially literate respondents tend to hold less cash on hand and store more cash elsewhere. Moreover, card ownership increases through financial literacy and the change in payment behavior of financially literate respondents is more significant during Covid-19 pandemic. The results imply that promoting financial literacy may result in less cash usage at points of sale accompanied by the currency in circulation growth, due to the overwhelming effect of increased non-transactional demand following a positive change in financial literacy level.
    Keywords: Financial literacy, Money demand, Cash demand
    JEL: C50 E41 G53
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2202&r=
  12. By: Can, Osman
    Abstract: On 2 March 2021, the Turkish Prosecutor General's office opened investigations into the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). On 17 March it filed its application with the Constitutional Court to have the party banned. The Prosecutor General further sought to prohibit 687 HDP officials from engaging in political activities for five years. This would have amounted to excluding almost all HDP politicians from politics, and thus closing political channels for discussing and solving the Kurdish question for years. On 31 March the Constitutional Court rejected the application due to procedural flaws. However, on 6 June, the Prosecutor General's office announced that it had filed a further motion to ban the party. This move to prohibit civilian and non-violent Kurdish politics risks augmenting the illegal Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and perpetuating the Kurdish conflict. It reveals the entanglement of politics and the judi­ciary in Turkey, and highlights structural deficits in the Turkish Constitution.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:382021&r=
  13. By: Mohammed Eddaou (Université Mohammed Premier [Oujda])
    Abstract: Morocco has seen a galloping increase in digital wallets since the introduction of this mobile solution in 2018. However, the period from 2015 to 2020 is marked by a downward trend in the creation of innovative ICT companies. In the context of this article, and in order to explain this reality, we will try to answer the following question: What is the relationship between the key factors of creation of new technological firms and the emergence of innovative Paytech companies in Morocco? To answer our central question, we have used scientific realism as an epistemological position, and the hypothetico-deductive approach as a research approach. In order to study our research hypotheses, we constructed a sample of 30 individuals working with actors of the ecosystem of these companies. In order to carry out the empirical analysis of our conceptual research model, we used cross-sectional data regression. The results of the study show that the emergence of innovative Paytech companies in Morocco is linked to the importance of the external network actors facilitated by the incubators and to the access of the founders of innovative Paytech companies to bank loans.
    Abstract: Le Maroc a connu une augmentation galopante des Digital Wallets depuis la mise en place de cette solution mobile en l'année 2018. Cependant, la période allant de 2015 à 2020 est marquée par une tendance à la baisse de la création des entreprises innovantes en TIC. Dans le cadre de cet article, et pour apporter une explication à cette réalité, nous essayerons de répondre à la question suivante : Quelle relation entre les facteurs clés de création des nouvelles firmes technologiques et l'éclosion des entreprises innovantes en Paytech au Maroc ? Pour répondre à notre question centrale, nous avons eu recours au réalisme scientifique en tant que positionnement épistémologique, et la démarche hypothético-déductive en tant que démarche de recherche. En vue d'étudier nos hypothèses de recherche, nous avons construit un échantillon de 30 individus travaillant auprès des acteurs de l'écosystème de ces entreprises. Pour réussir l'analyse empirique de notre modèle conceptuel de recherche, nous avons eu recours à une régression de données en coupe instantanée. Les résultats de l'étude montrent que l'éclosion des entreprises innovantes en Paytech au Maroc est liée à l'importance des acteurs des réseaux externes favorisés par les incubateurs et à l'accès des fondateurs des entreprises innovantes en Paytech aux prêts bancaires.
    Keywords: innovative entrepreneur,venture capital,Incubators,Fintech,Paytech,Innovative companies,entrepreneur innovateur,Entreprises innovantes,capital-risque
    Date: 2022–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03659117&r=
  14. By: Averbukh, Lidia
    Abstract: In the run-up to the 2021 elections to the Knesset, Jewish parties are actively courting the votes of Israeli Arabs, who constitute 17 per cent of all Israelis eligible to vote. At the same time, Israeli Arabs are increasingly emphasizing the need for a politics that will help improve their living circumstances and allow them greater political participation. While the Joint List alliance of Arab parties continues to follow its traditional oppositionist course and has come to terms with the decision of one of its members, the Islamic Movement (Ra'am), to split away, the election campaign has seen the emergence of new Arab politics, whose actors advocate a more pragmatic approach and are looking to cooperate with Jewish parties. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the identity of the Jewish state of Israel are playing a secondary role. The situation is similar in Israeli local politics, where Jews and Arabs are already engaged in interest-based cooperation.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:182021&r=
  15. By: Azizi, Hamidreza
    Abstract: On January 3, 2020, the Iranian Quds Force commander, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated by the United States in Iraq. He was considered the mastermind behind Iran's regional strategy, especially in Syria and Iraq. A year and a half later, the Islamic Republic continues to wield considerable influence in Iraq, and Iran-backed militias continue to violently pressure US forces to leave Iraq. However, Iran now faces a series of serious challenges that are directly and indirectly related to Soleimani's death. In the geopolitical and economic spheres, the influence of Iran's rivals in Iraq has increased, while Tehran's room for maneuver has become increasingly limited. In the political arena, divisions among Iran-backed forces in Iraq have increased, while Iran's direct influence over the Iraqi government has been declining. At the same time, rising anti-Iranian sentiments among the Iraqi people have reduced Iran's social capital in the neighboring country. The combination of these factors seems to be limiting Iran's influence in Iraq. The EU should build upon this opportunity to sup­port a strong Iraqi government that pursues a multi-vector foreign policy.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:442021&r=
  16. By: Yeğen, Mesut
    Abstract: Not long ago, the Kurdish question (KQ) topped the agenda of Turkish politics. Thanks mainly to what was called the Resolution Process between 2009 and 2015, there was a tense but lively political and public discussion on this colossal problem that the Turkish republic has long been tackling with since its foundation. In the past few years, however, the KQ ceased to be a priority issue in Turkish politics. So much so that the "terror question", a watchword for the KQ in the daily lexicon of mainstream Turkish politics, is no longer regarded by the Turkish public as being among the country's top political problems. However, recently, there have appeared some new signs which indicate that the KQ will most likely return to the political agenda. Both Turkish President Erdoğan and the leaders of the country's opposition parties have taken steps that reveal that they will revisit the KQ as the 2023 Turkish general election approaches.
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:282022&r=
  17. By: Dalay, Galip; Isachenko, Daria
    Abstract: The Ukraine crisis poses two particularly uneasy questions for Turkey: How to uphold a power balance in the Black Sea? And how to manage its relations between Russia, Ukraine and the West? So far, Ankara's policy towards Moscow consists of both deterrence and dialogue. In regards deterrence, Turkey is closer to the non-EU members of NATO such as the US and the UK. Meanwhile, Turkey's policy of dialogue is similar to that of EU members, most notably Germany. However, while there is a certain degree of similarity between the stances of Turkey and some Western countries in the current crisis, their convergence of interests has not yet resulted in any meaningful cooperation. In the short term, the parallel track of deterrence and dialogue still gives Turkey some leeway to continue its multi-vector manoeuvring. The Ukrainian imbroglio is, however, a manifestation of a crisis concerning the current European security order, or more precisely the lack thereof, thus making it necessary to define the role of not only Russia but also Turkey in any European design for a new security architecture.
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:92022&r=
  18. By: Jacques Bakole (Université pédagogique nationale - Université Pédagogique Nationale)
    Abstract: Ce papier analyse la croissance inclusive au sein de quelques Pays du Maghreb (Egypte, Tunisie, Maroc), de la période allant de 1980 jusqu'en 2019. Les données sont en Panel provenant de différentes bases de données (WDI, BAD, FMI,). Après estimation d'un modèle homogène, les résultats montrent que la croissance a été tout de même inclusive durant la période choisie.
    Keywords: Homogeneous,Maghreb,Gini index,Inclusive
    Date: 2022–04–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03655884&r=
  19. By: Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Mocan, Naci (Louisiana State University); Tumen, Semih (TED University); Turan, Belgi (TOBB University of Economy and Technology)
    Abstract: We analyze the impact on crime of 3.7 million refugees who entered and stayed in Turkey as a result of the civil war in Syria. Using a novel administrative data source on the flow of offense records to prosecutors' offices in 81 provinces of the country each year, and utilizing the staggered movement of refugees across provinces over time, we estimate instrumental variables models that address potential endogeneity of the number of refugees and their location, and find that an increase in the number of refugees leads to more crime. We estimate that the influx of refugees between 2012 and 2016 generated additional 75,000 to 150,000 crimes per year, although it is not possible to identify the distribution of these crimes between refugees and natives. Additional analyses reveal that low-educated native population has a separate, but smaller, effect on crime. We also highlight the pitfalls of employing incorrect empirical procedures and using poor proxies of criminal activity which produce the wrong inference about the refugee-crime relationship. Our results underline the need to quickly strengthen the social safety systems, to take actions to dampen the impact on the labor market, and to provide support to the criminal justice system in order to mitigate the repercussions of massive influx of individuals into a country, and to counter the social and political backlash that typically emerges in the wake of such large-scale population movements.
    Keywords: refugees, crime, instrumental variables, measurement of crime
    JEL: J08 J2 J3 J38 J61 J68 K14 K37 K42
    Date: 2022–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15335&r=
  20. By: Jannack, Patricia; Roll, Stephan
    Abstract: Thousands have been imprisoned for their political and ideological views in Egypt since the 2013 military takeover and Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi's subsequent rise to the presidency. This policy has dramatic humanitarian consequences, but also increasingly promotes radicalisation, strengthens rejection of state institutions, and hinders development of the country's civil society and economy. It also undermines Germany's efforts to use financial aid and development cooperation to stabilise Egypt, the Mediterranean's most populous country. The German government should therefore increase its pressure on Egypt's leaders and call for far-reaching amnesty. In doing so, it is important to emphasise the personal responsibility of the president and to tie future loans and debt rescheduling to concrete steps that end arbitrary detentions.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:492021&r=
  21. By: Sa'd Shannak; Jeyhun Mikayilov; Rubal Dua (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: In light of Saudi Arabia’s recent energy-pricing reform strategy, this paper investigates the main drivers of fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the transport sector. We employed a battery of econometric techniques to analyze the long-run relationships between income, fuel prices, energy share, population, and total carbon emissions in the transportation sector.
    Keywords: Agent Based modeling, Analytics, Applied Research, Autometrics
    Date: 2022–05–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2022-dp04&r=
  22. By: Adar, Sinem
    Abstract: Undermining the foundational pillars of the post-Cold War security order, Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine is a watershed event for Europe and the wider world, Tur­key included. While Ankara is trying to protect its economy and security interests, anti-Western narratives dominate the public debate. The war has indeed accentuated anti-Westernism as one of the main fault lines of political competition. Given the geo­political imperatives that February 24 brought to the fore, it is highly likely that, in the short-term, Turkey's NATO membership and its Association Agreement with the EU will - geopolitically and economically - continue to anchor it to the West. Whether or not a full strategic alignment with the EU will accompany such an anchoring is far from certain, however, mainly due to Turkey's domestic political dynamics, but also due to the unclarity about how far the EU is willing to move beyond a transactional approach.
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:252022&r=
  23. By: Seufert, Günter
    Abstract: Ahead of his trip to Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus on July 20, 2021, the Turkish President announced that he would be bringing 'good news' to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Speculation ran rampant that Erdoğan would use the 47th anniversary of the Turkish invasion to announce that Azerbaijan, Pakistan, or Kyrgyzstan would establish diplomatic relations with the TRNC, which is currently recognized only by Turkey. But Erdoğan merely unveiled the construction of a pomp­ous presidential palace that would befit a future, independent "Turkish Cypriot State". The Turkish president is still reluctant to back up his words of international recognition of the TRNC with deeds. But the visit shows that Ankara is working to­ward the final division of the island, and Erdoğan's actions made it clear once again that he alone calls the shots in northern Cyprus.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:472021&r=
  24. By: Akkoyunlu, Şule; Epstein, Gil S.; Gang, Ira N.
    Abstract: Distinguishing between short-run and long-run outcomes we provide new insight into the relationship between education and migration. We examine the specific link between the acquisition of high levels of human capital in the form of university education in Turkey and migration to Germany. We implement bounds testing procedures to ascertain the long-run relationships with the variables of interest in a migration model. Although the bounds testing procedure has advantages compared to other methods, it has not been widely implemented in the migration literature. We find a negative and decreasing non-linear long-run and short-run relationship between home country university education and Turkish migration to Germany over 1970-2015. Over the long run, increased higher education reduces emigration flows.
    Keywords: Education,Migration,Turkey,Germany
    JEL: C22 F22 F63 I25 I26 O15
    Date: 2022
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1096&r=
  25. By: Fakir, Intissar; Werenfels, Isabelle
    Abstract: The global pandemic crisis has highlighted the inherent weaknesses of governance in countries of the Maghreb. It has underscored Morocco's lagging human development and infrastructure amid growing authoritarianism. In Algeria, where the government is struggling with an ongoing legitimacy crisis, the pandemic has exposed the state's weak public services. In Tunisia, the pandemic has emphasised the disarray of the country's political elites and the effects of the protracted transition on state output. Yet, the pandemic crisis has pushed some of these governments to seize opportunities, in­cluding speeding up digitalisation, allowing for citizen engagement, and even seeking some self-sufficiency in terms of medical production. As these countries pursue economic relief and support to overcome the growing economic impacts from the crisis, European partners have the opportunity to use their leverage to promote policies that reduce inequality, prioritise investment in critical infrastructure, and encourage transparent and responsive citizen-government relations.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:152021&r=
  26. By: Asseburg, Muriel
    Abstract: 2021 is shaping up to be a year of elections for the Palestinians, both in the Palestinian Territories and across the world. Three ballots are scheduled for the institutions of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). It is still unclear whether they will all take place as planned. The PA elections certainly have an important role to play in integrating the younger generations in the Territories, restoring political accountability and reinstating democratic checks and bal­ances. The elections to the Palestinian National Council - the PLO's parliament in exile - would be even more significant and a crucial step towards creating a repre­sentative organ and establishing the basis for an inclusive discussion about the liberation movement's future strategy and the role of the PA. The EU and its member states have been calling for years for the Palestinian leadership to revive the democratic process and overcome the Fatah/Hamas split. They should therefore not only support the elections with observers but also contribute actively to their being as free, fair and competitive as possible under the difficult circumstances.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:242021&r=
  27. By: Yannick Fiedler (CERI - Centre de recherches internationales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mohamed Elloumi; Abdallah Ben Saad; Emna Ouertani; Arbia Labidi
    Abstract: En Tunisie, le taux de chômage des jeunes de 15 à 35 ans est très élevé, se situant autour de 35 pour cent, chez les diplômés du supérieur des régions de l'intérieur et en milieu rural, ce qui pousse un nombre important à l'exode et à l'émigration souvent au péril de leur vie. Par ailleurs, les régions de l'intérieur à dominante agricole et rurale accusent le plus grand retard de développement. Caractérisé par un vieillissement de la population des chefs d'exploitation et un faible niveau d'innovations techniques et organisationnelles, le secteur agricole peine à faire face aux défis de la stagnation de la croissance de la productivité, des changements climatiques et de la libéralisation des marchés des produits agricoles. Plusieurs initiatives visant à stimuler l'investissement dans les secteurs agricole et agroalimentaire ont d'ores et déjà été lancées afin de répondre à ces défis. Cependant, tous ces efforts n'ont pas entrainé l'amélioration nette des investissements dans le secteur agricole escomptée, et la part des investissements par les jeunes agri-entrepreneurs reste nettement en dessous des attentes. Des efforts concertés et substantiels s'imposent ainsi pour stimuler des investissements permettant de dynamiser les secteurs agricole et agroalimentaire, et répondre aux attentes des jeunes en leur offrant des opportunités entrepreneuriales et d'emploi. Sur une requête du Ministère de l'agriculture, de la pêche et des ressources hydrauliques, la FAO, le Laboratoire d'Economie Rurale de l'INRAT et l'Agence de Promotion des Investissements Agricoles ont élaboré, de façon concertée avec les jeunes, une feuille de route pour promouvoir et pérenniser les investissements des jeunes agri-entrepreneurs. Ce policy brief résume les principaux défis identifiés et les solutions qui ont été validées par les parties prenantes tunisiennes, et s'articule autour de cinq axes: 1) Mettre en place un cadre de dispositifs, services et incitations financiers pour les jeunes agri-entrepreneurs; 2) Renforcer les actions de vulgarisation, de formation et de coaching; 3) Améliorer la communication et l'accès a l'information; 4) Garantir une meilleure coordination entre les différents acteurs et interventions; et 5) Renforcer la compétitivité et l'attractivité des filières.
    Keywords: entrepreneurs,agriculture,food systems,investment,Tunisia
    Date: 2020–09–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03455803&r=

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