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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Steinberg, Guido |
| Abstract: | Since 2011 the Islamic Republic of Iran has significantly extended its influence in the Middle East. The expansion reached its apex in 2018. It has since entered a new phase in which Tehran, despite not suffering any strategic military setbacks, is hitting a wall. Iran's biggest fundamental problem is that a majority of its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen are primarily military and terrorist actors. They frequently succeed in armed confrontations. Yet they are subsequently incapable of ensuring political and economic stability. The best option for German and European policymakers is a strategy of containment so as to put an end to Iran's expansion in the four countries mentioned above, but also to acknowledge in the short term that Tehran and its allies are in a position of strength. Part of such a containment strategy would be to impose the most far-reaching isolation and sanctions possible on Iran's armed partners. This includes adding Lebanese Hezbollah, the Hezbollah Battalions, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq and other militias loyal to Iran, including their leaders, to all. Should Iranian institutions and actors involved in its policy of expansion in the Middle East also be listed as terrorists? The close ties between the Quds Corps - which is in charge of Iran's policy towards its Arab neighbours - and unequivocally terrorist organisations such as Lebanese Hezbollah suggest that this step is necessary. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:62021&r= |
| By: | Fakih, Ali (Lebanese American University); Haimoun, Nathir (University of Lethbridge); Sleiman, Anastasia (Lebanese American University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of private tutoring in five major Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, Egypt, Algeria, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. The paper uses data extracted from the SAHWA Youth Survey (2016) and runs a probit model. The main findings indicate that age, receiving financial support, having educated parents, and living in urban areas increase the demand for private tutoring. Conversely, the results show that being a male student or a child of an employed mother would decrease the need for a private tutor. The empirical findings propose potential policy implications for MENA countries facing exacerbating gaps in the education system while emphasizing the challenges hindering public schools from delivering quality education. |
| Keywords: | private tutoring, shadow education, youth, MENA region, probit model |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I24 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15319&r= |
| By: | Dalay, Galip |
| Abstract: | Syria is central to the current shape of Turkey-Russia relations. It offers a model of partnership for both countries in a context where their interests are competitive. However, the Syrian-centric cooperation between Turkey and Russia is also special and is thus unlikely to be replicated elsewhere due to structural constraints and contextual nuances. The limits of the Syrian-style model of cooperation between Ankara and Moscow can be observed in Libya as well as Nagorno-Karabakh. Even though the institutional and elite ownership of Turkey's Western relations has weakened, no similar institutional basis exists in Turkey's relations with Russia. As such, the current Ankara-Moscow axis is to a great extent defined by the personal ties between the countries' leaders and geopolitical imperatives. However, if the current shape of relations endures much longer, these personalised relations will gain structural foundations. A major problem for Turkey in its relations with Russia remains the asymmetry, even if interdependent, in favour of Moscow. Yet, the nature of asymmetry is dynamic and subject to change, as Turkey has engaged in what can be termed dependency reduction on Russia, both geopolitically and structurally (energy-wise). Developments at the broader international level, a new administration in the US, and rising tension between Ukraine and Russia indicate that Turkey would face more constraints and higher costs for its hitherto geopolitical balancing act between the West and Russia. The close relations in recent years between Ankara and Moscow also point to the need for Turkey and the West to redefine the nature of their relations, as the Cold War framework of Turkey-US relations and the accession framework of Turkish-European relations increasingly appear to be ill-suited to the present realities. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:52021&r= |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens; Glauber, Joseph W.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Laborde Debucquet, David; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. On the policy side, we review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade. |
| Keywords: | MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, RUSSIAN FEDERATION, EASTERN EUROPE, UKRAINE, EUROPE, food security, food crises, food prices, conflicts, fertilizers, farm inputs, poverty, economic shocks |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:39&r= |
| By: | Isachenko, Daria |
| Abstract: | Relations between Turkey and Russia are a puzzle to many in the West. How sustainable is the relationship? What is it grounded on? And what can the West learn from it? Central to the relationship is its bilateral nature. Relations between Ankara and Moscow are based on the mutual recognition of security interests. The resulting dynamics have shaped Turkish-Russian cooperation since the 1990s and can be observed in the current partnership in Syria. Mutual regard for the other's security concerns is facilitated by the prospect of collaborative projects that promise greater advantages than continued conflict. Trust is of secondary importance, as is the quality of personal relations between the Turkish and Russian presidents. More important is the interdependence between Russia and Turkey. The potential for confrontation or cooperation between Ankara and Moscow in regional conflicts depends on current priorities rather than past rivalries. The form and extent of their collaboration are determined not by which side of the conflict they are on, but by their respective motives. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:72021&r= |
| By: | Kınıklıoğlu, Suat |
| Abstract: | Turkey's neo-Eurasianist ideologues describe themselves as 'Kemalist Eurasianists'. They argue that 'Eurasianism calls for a cultural, military, political and commercial alliance with Turkey's eastern neighbors, notably Russia, Iran, the Turkic countries of Central Asia, and even Pakistan, India and China' and is 'hostile towards any type of pro-Western policy in the Eurasian space. Turkey's neo-Eurasianists transformed from incarcerated villains to coalition partners in government and the bureaucracy. This spectacular reversal of fortunes could only materialize due to the special circumstances that arose from the ruthless power struggle between Turkey's Islamists. Nationalist-Islamism and Eurasianism overlap as they both despise Western dominance in the international order, feel threatened by the liberal cultural-civilizational siege of the West and thus have a common counter-hegemonic view of the world. Turkish Islamists and Eurasianists believe that a post-Western world is in the making. They argue that the unipolarity of the 1990s is over and that the West is essentially in an unstoppable decline - not least because of its degeneration in values. The true significance of Turkish 'Eurasianism' does not lie in its capacity to shape foreign and security policy although that cannot be totally disregarded; rather, its real contribution to the current regime comes from its critical role in widening and solidifying consent to authoritarian rule in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:72022&r= |
| By: | Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul; Tulun, Mehmet Oğuzhan |
| Abstract: | Western countries and Russia are locked into an ideological conflict and dangerous brinkmanship over the future of Ukraine, NATO-member and EU-candidate Turkey has drawn attention due to its efforts to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with its Western allies, Russia, and Ukraine. Such a stance has highlighted Turkey's foreign policy and its place in its region and, in fact, the world. Antiquated Cold War-era mindsets view Turkey as a mere frontline asset of the Western world and that Turkey's deviation from such a role is inherently threatening for the West. Turkey's best interest lays in adopting Constructive Eurasianism that on the one hand values Turkey's institutionalized connections with the West, and on the other hand looks into the potential offered by increased ties with Turkey's east. Constructive Eurasianism values and respects Turkey's NATO membership and supports its EU candidacy, even though the latter promises the Turkish people an improbable future. However, it also recognizes that some of the florid language employed by Western countries with emphasis on democracy, pluralism, the rule of law, and the "value-based relationship" rhetoric masks centuries-old imperialistic ambitions and an arrogant attempt to intervene in the domestic politics of other countries. Considering all these issues, Constructive Eurasianism, unlike other forms of Eurasianism advocated, "will benefit Turkey because it rejects creating new rivalries and antagonisms, and instead seeks to create new avenues for cooperation so that Turkey can position itself properly in a changing world." As such, Constructive Eurasianism will allow Turkey to continue to be an integrated part of the West and at the same time to function as a true nexus between the West and the East. |
| Date: | 2022–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:72c8d&r= |
| By: | Samia Satti; Osman Mohamed Nour |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to discuss the status of households and firms during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sudan as a case study of the MENA countries. It is based on new primary data obtained from ERF COVID MENA Monitor Household Survey (2021) and the World Bank and Sudan Central Bureau of Statistic High Frequency Survey on COVID-19 (2020). During the COVID-19 pandemic (June–July 2020) the loss of jobs for the majority and nearly two thirds of households, unemployment and changing jobs was because of business or government closures due to coronavirus legal restrictions. The increase in temporary or permanent layoff/suspension of workers, reduced hours, reduced wages, delays in wage payment and limited provision of social protection/insurance between April and August 2021. A careful interpretation of our results could be considered as during COVID-19 pandemic Sudan not only suffered from COVID-19 pandemic but also simultaneously suffered from a critical economic crisis, economic instability and political instability that started even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The main recommendation of this paper is to increase the government support to manage COVID-19 economic and social impacts on workers. |
| Keywords: | Afrique |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2022–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en14033&r= |
| By: | Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Lee, Sang Seok |
| Abstract: | For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identifted, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfted and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the "standard model" suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no, and yes. |
| JEL: | E02 E31 E52 E58 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:679&r= |
| By: | Stanzel, Angela |
| Abstract: | Chinese foreign policy is at the crossroads of regional interests and global power rivalry in the Middle East, especially in Iran. China's interests in the Middle East increasingly collide with those of the US, which has brought about a significant re-orientation of Chinese foreign policy on this region. Beijing is increasingly concerned with balancing US influence in the region. Relations with Iran offer China various possibilities for balancing US influence. A decisive factor for China's Iran policy are its regulatory ideas aiming to establish equality of influence between the major global powers in a given region, in this case the Middle East. Chinese discourse underpins the shifts in Chinese foreign policy in which hard or soft balancing is increasingly becoming a feature of a "geo-politicised" regional policy. This geostrategic regional policy with regard to Iran shows that China is gaining influence there at the expense of the United States. German and European actors need a deeper understanding of China's balancing policy. This would enable Germany and the EU to correctly assess and also question the rhetoric of the Chinese leadership. On this basis, Germany and the EU should adjust their engagement in Iran, especially with regard to the Iranian nuclear weapons issue. Moreover, the new German government should ensure that foreign policy actions in third countries are comprehensive and coordinated with the EU so as to meet the challenges posed by China. Such coordination must also be pursued within the transatlantic framework. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:52022&r= |
| By: | Refet S. Gürkaynak; Burcin Kisacikoglu; Sang Seok Lee |
| Abstract: | For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfied and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the “standard model” suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no, and yes. |
| JEL: | E02 E31 E52 E58 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9748&r= |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Asseburg, Muriel; Azizi, Hamidreza; Klein, Margarete; Yacoubian, Mona |
| Abstract: | In Syria, the immediate effects of the war in Ukraine have made an already difficult humanitarian situation even worse. Protracted violence in Ukraine or an expansion of the Ukraine war into a larger NATO-Russia confrontation would endanger multilateral cooperation on conflict management, conflict resolution and humanitarian issues in Syria. Protracted conflict in Ukraine could also disrupt the volatile status quo in Syria, potentially endangering ceasefire agreements, tilting the power balance in favour of Iran and thereby increasing the risk of military escalation between Iran and its antagonists, complicating the fight against ISIS, and endangering cross-border humanitarian aid deliveries. Europeans should attempt to insulate the war in Ukraine from Syria as much as possible, double down on efforts to renew the UN Security Council resolution that allows for humanitarian access to northwest Syria and contribute to the long-term objective of an inclusive regional security architecture. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:322022&r= |
| By: | Schneider, Jonas |
| Abstract: | Solange der Atomkonflikt mit Iran nicht nachhaltig gelöst ist, besteht die Gefahr, dass Saudi-Arabien ein eigenes Programm zum Bau von Kernwaffen startet. Das iranische Nuklearabkommen von 2015 wiederherzustellen und voll umzusetzen, würde den Proliferationsdruck auf Riad aber allein nicht beseitigen, sondern nur vorübergehend senken. Um die Proliferationsgefahr in der Region einzuhegen, sollten die deutschen und europäischen Anstrengungen zur Rettung des Atomabkommens mit Teheran daher ergänzt werden um gezielte Nichtverbreitungsbemühungen gegenüber Saudi-Arabien. Das ist bisher nicht der Fall. Der jetzige Zeitpunkt ist für eine solche Nichtverbreitungspolitik günstig. Im Moment verfügt Saudi-Arabien noch nicht über Anlagen zur Produktion des Spaltmaterials, das für Kernwaffen benutzt werden kann: hochangereichertes Uran oder Plutonium. Künftig möchte Riad aber Uran anreichern. Deutschland und Europa stehen mit ihren Nichtverbreitungsbemühungen im Hinblick auf Riad vor der Herausforderung, dass es sich bei dem Königreich um einen "Frenemy" handelt, mit dem westliche Regierungen eng kooperieren. Dies hat zur Folge, dass weichere nichtverbreitungspolitische Instrumente zum Einsatz kommen müssen als etwa bei Nordkorea oder Iran. Zu jenen weicheren Optionen, die beim Einhegen saudischer Proliferation erfolgreich sein könnten, zählen Maßnahmen zur militärischen Rückversicherung, eine an Bedingungen geknüpfte Kooperation bei der Kernkraftnutzung, die Verweigerung proliferationsrelevanter Technologien, die Ausübung diplomatischen Drucks und die glaubwürdige Androhung von Sanktionen. Wenn Deutschland dazu beitragen will, einer Atomrüstung in Saudi-Arabien entgegenzuwirken, muss es aktiver und systematischer vorgehen. Die Bundesregierung sollte mit ihren engsten Partnern ein konkretes Nichtverbreitungsziel formulieren und bald damit beginnen, es zu verfolgen, damit die weichen Instrumente wirken können. Zudem sollte der Fokus darauf liegen, Einflussmöglichkeiten auf Riad zu maximieren und keineswegs weiter zu beschneiden. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:212021&r= |
| By: | Steinberg, Guido |
| Abstract: | Die Islamische Republik Iran hat ihren Einfluss im Nahen Osten seit 2011 stark ausgeweitet. Doch hat diese Expansion ihren Höhepunkt schon 2018 erreicht. Seitdem tritt sie in eine neue Phase, in der Teheran zwar keine strategischen militärischen Rückschläge erlebt, aber an Grenzen stößt. Das größte grundsätzliche Problem Irans ist, dass seine Verbündeten im Libanon, Syrien, Irak und Jemen mehrheitlich und in erster Linie militärische und terroristische Akteure sind. Es gelingt ihnen zwar häufig, in bewaffneten Auseinandersetzungen Erfolge zu erzielen. Doch erweisen sie sich anschließend als unfähig, für politische und wirtschaftliche Stabilität zu sorgen. Die beste Option für die deutsche und die europäische Politik ist die einer Eindämmungsstrategie, deren langfristiges Ziel das Ende der iranischen Expansion in den vier genannten Ländern ist, die aber kurzfristig auf der Einsicht beruht, dass Teheran und seine alliierten Akteure in einer starken Position sind. Ein Bestandteil einer Eindämmungsstrategie wäre eine möglichst weitgehende Isolierung und Sanktionierung der bewaffneten Kooperationspartner Irans. Hierzu gehört die Aufnahme der libanesischen Hisbollah, der Hisbollah-Bataillone, der Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq und weiterer iranloyaler Milizen und ihres Führungspersonals auf alle relevanten Terrorismuslisten. Es sollte überlegt werden, ob iranische Institutionen und Akteure, die an der Expansionspolitik im Nahen Osten beteiligt sind, ebenfalls als terroristisch gelistet werden müssen. Die enge Bindung des Quds-Korps - das für Irans Politik gegenüber den arabischen Nachbarn federführend ist - an unzweifelhaft terroristische Organisationen wie die libanesische Hisbollah legt einen solchen Schritt nahe. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:82021&r= |