|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre (Sabanci University); Bağır, Yusuf Kenan (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey); Cilasun, Seyit Mümin (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | This study combines an administrative dataset of the full population of Turkish firms and the setting of the sudden mass migration of Syrian refugees to Turkey to identify the effect of migrants on firm performance and market structure. As a result of the migrant shock, existing firms expand and new firms are established. Quantitatively, a 10 percentage-point rise in migrant-to-native ratio increases average firm sales by 4% and the number of registered firms by 5%. While the number of firms rises, new firms are more likely to be small. The resulting market structure shows less concentration and firms reduce the share of workers formally employed. We further document an increased propensity to export and an increase in the variety of exported products. The impact on exports is driven by a rise in competitiveness of firms in regions hosting Syrians as a decline in export prices is observed. We also uncover evidence for an effect of migrants' skills and networks on exports, as the export value and variety of products to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region increase more than those to the EU region among exporters while the prices of products exported to the two regions show similar changes. |
| Keywords: | refugees, firm performance, market structure, sales, informality, exports, migrant business networks |
| JEL: | J15 J61 F16 L11 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13953&r=all |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural and food policies will play an important role in making Egypt’s food system fit for future challenges, including resilience to shocks, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This brief highlights the importance of enabling farmers so that they can contribute significantly to a broader transformation and to resilience of Egypt’s food system and rural economy. Five areas of action are highlighted: Invest in a renewed system of agricultural extension services, with an emphasis on new technologies and production systems and on nontraditional crops. Ease rigidities for farmers and increase the market orientation of the agriculture sector, including markets for fertilizer and staple crops. Revisit the current irrigation management system to allow for the adoption of new irrigation technologies and increased efficiency of water usage. Support the development of agro-processing value chains where there are missing markets or market frictions in order to achieve a sustainable and nutrition-sensitive food system. Coordinate agricultural policy with policies of other government ministries to support rural transformation and employment opportunities off the farm. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, farmers, food systems, resilience, agriculture, food policies, rural economics, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:11&r=all |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarize key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars organized by IFPRI between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policymakers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt to achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030. This policy note highlights how digital tools can help improve monitoring, evaluation, and extension services in Egypt’s agriculture sector and how policy analysis can be institutionalized to guide transformation of the food system and rural economies. Four recommendations are discussed: Building on ongoing efforts, continue to digitize agricultural information systems, build and link agricultural databases, and exploit new sources of data. Build on ongoing projects that develop mobile telephone applications for farmers and learn from international experiences to revitalize and digitalize agricultural extension in Egypt. Build the capacity of agricultural policy analysts within the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation and universities, using both conventional and new digital tools to provide high-quality, research-based policy advice. Promote further digitalization to improve the resilience of food systems in view of shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, digital technology, agricultural extension, policies, agricultural sector, information systems, farmers, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:12&r=all |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, digital technology, agricultural extension, policies, agricultural sector, information systems, farmers, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:arabic12&r=all |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarizes key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars that IFPRI organized between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policy makers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030. Social protection programs are essential for supporting Egyptians who are economically the most vulnerable. This brief makes the argument for moving more decisively toward a cash-based social protection system in Egypt. Four areas of action are highlighted: Continue the well-functioning Takaful and Karama program and consider increasing its budget to adjust transfers to inflation. Consider improving the targeting for Tamween food subsidies and integrating Takaful and Karama with Tamween. Continue the use of transparent and independent impact evaluations to assess social protection programs in order to maximize their benefits for Egypt and its people. Maintain the ability to respond flexibly to future shocks as an important feature of solidifying the national social protection system. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, cash transfers, social protection, shock, programmes, impact assessment |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:13&r=all |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarize key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars organized by IFPRI between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policymakers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt to achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030. Addressing all forms of malnutrition – both undernutrition and overnutrition – remains a human and economic development challenge that Egypt must overcome. This brief highlights three areas of action to significantly improve the nutritional status of all Egyptians: Make domestic food policies more nutrition-sensitive and incentivize food producers and marketers to shift to the production, processing, and marketing of healthier foods. Expand ongoing awareness and educational campaigns, such as the 100 Million Healthy Lives initiative, to promote improved nutrition and to disseminate nutrition knowledge. The COVID-19 pandemic is an additional reminder and rationale for investing in healthy diets and sustainable food systems. Promote research to make nutrition policy more effective and efficient, including by increasing collection of nutrition-related data and better sharing of already collected data among ministries, research institutes, and other stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, nutrition, malnutrition, overfeeding, development, health foods, health, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, policies |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:14&r=all |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred; Kamaly, Ahmed; Karara, Mouchera |
| Abstract: | Although the global economy is forecasted to shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020 (IMF 2020), the Egyptian economy is proving resilient to the immense human and financial costs caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This resilience is mainly explained by the successful implementation of the economic reform program since 2016 that provided more fiscal space to withstand the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis. However, that Egypt’s economy is holding up is also due to the rapid response and proactive measures to limit the impact of the virus that were implemented by the Egyptian Government since March 2020 (MPED 2020). These enabled the country to avoid a full lockdown policy (Figure 1). While Egypt posted negative economic growth rates from April to June 2020 at the height of the crisis, overall economic growth was still positive at 3.6 percent for fiscal year (FY) 2019/20. This estimate is only slightly lower than the initial projection of the impact of the pandemic on Egypt’s economy of an annual economic growth equal to 3.8 percent, as estimated by staff of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) (Breisinger et al. 2020). The deviation between the early and final estimate can be mainly explained by the lower than expected growth rates in the manufacturing and health services sectors and the better than expected performance of the trade and transport sectors. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, economics, households, employment, resilience, sectors, jobs |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:10&r=all |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha (World Bank); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank); El Lahga, Abdel Rahmen (University of Tunis); Mendiratta, Vibhuti (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 is likely to have a large impact on the welfare of Tunisian households. First, some individuals might be more vulnerable to contracting the disease because their living conditions or jobs make them more susceptible to meeting others or practicing social distancing. Lack of adequate access to health insurance, overcrowded living conditions, and low access to water at home are reasons that make the Tunisian poor more susceptible to getting infected or not being able to seek health care in the event that they contract COVID-19. In addition, the elderly in the poorest households could be more susceptible to COVID-19 due to higher prevalence of intergenerational households among the poor. Second, many sectors of the labor market have experienced an economic slowdown, and those employed in these sectors are likely to experience disproportionate effects. Combining the labor shock and price shock simultaneously, the simulations in this paper show an increase in poverty of 7.3 percentage points under a more optimistic scenario and 11.9 percentage points under the pessimistic scenario, and individuals in sectors such as tourism and construction are expected to fall into poverty due to COVID-19. The paper estimates that the government's compensatory measures targeted toward the hardest hit are expected to mitigate the increase in poverty. Specifically, the increase in poverty will be 6.5 percentage points under the optimistic scenario if mitigation measures are in place vis-à-vis in their absence, when the increase in poverty is 7.3 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Tunisia, labor income, consumption |
| JEL: | J16 J21 O54 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13978&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia discusses that reforms are starting to yield positive results. Oil prices and production have been volatile, and uncertainties in the global oil market continue. Promoting non-oil growth and creating jobs for Saudi nationals remain key challenges. Non-oil growth is expected to strengthen further this year and over the medium term. Risks to the growth outlook are broadly balanced. The fiscal deficit declined in 2018; however, higher government spending has increased medium-term fiscal vulnerabilities to a decline in oil prices. Fiscal consolidation is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The fiscal framework should be further strengthened to help reduce the procyclicality of government spending. Reforms to improve the business environment are proceeding but need to be complemented by efforts to increase the cost competitiveness of Saudi labor. Government support to develop sectors of the economy should crowd in the private sector and be timebound and linked to performance. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices;Expenditure;Banking;Labor;Budget planning and preparation;ISCR,CR,SDR Department,economy,deficit,growth,private sector |
| Date: | 2019–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/290&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Morocco discusses that gradually increasing growth, moderate inflation, and stronger external and fiscal buffers are expected over the medium term, benefiting from sustained reform implementation. However, this outlook remains subject to significant domestic and external risks: delays in implementing reforms, lower growth in key partner countries (particularly in the euro area), higher oil prices, geopolitical risks, and volatile financial conditions could weaken Morocco’s resilience and economic prospects. Building on progress achieved in recent years, further fiscal and structural reforms are needed to consolidate gains in macroeconomic resilience and achieve higher and more inclusive growth. The discussions mainly focused on strengthening the resilience of the economy through continued fiscal reforms, greater exchange rate flexibility, and strengthened financial sector soundness. It also highlighted the need for pushing ahead with mutually-reinforcing and properly sequenced reforms to raise growth and inclusion, including by improving public sector governance, promoting private sector development, and reducing inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;External debt;Banking;Credit;Exchange rate flexibility;ISCR,CR,exchange rate,deficit,authority,ana IMF,governance |
| Date: | 2019–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/230&r=all |
| By: | Aydemir, Abdurrahman (Sabanci University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University); Torun, Huzeyfe (Central Bank of Turkey) |
| Abstract: | We take advantage of a major compulsory school reform in Turkey to provide novel evidence on the causal effect of education on both the incidence and timing of internal migration. In addition, for the first time in literature, we provide causal effects of education on migration by reason for migration. We find that while education substantially increases the incidence of migration among men, there is no evidence of an effect among women. Women, however, become more likely to migrate at earlier ages and their migration reasons change. Revealing the empowering role of education, women become more likely to move for human capital investments and for employment purposes and less likely to be tied-movers. |
| Keywords: | education, internal migration, incidence and timing of migration, reason for migration, 2SLS, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | J61 I2 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14013&r=all |
| By: | Belaïd, Fateh (Lille Catholic University); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the key factors affecting household energy expenditure in Egypt. Based upon the latest 2015 Egyptian HIECS Survey, we develop a quantile regression model with an innovative variable selection approach via Adaptive Lasso Regularization technique to untangle the spectrum of household energy expenditure. Unsurprisingly, income, age, household size, housing size, and employment status are salient predictors for energy expenditure. Housing characteristics have a moderate impact, while socio-economic attributes have a much larger one. The largest variations in household energy expenditures in Egypt are mainly due to variations in income, household size, and housing type. Our findings document substantial differences in household energy expenditure, originating from the asymmetric tails of the energy expenditure distribution. This outcome highlights the added value of implementing quantile regression methods. Our empirical results have various interesting policy implications regarding residential energy efficiency and carbon emissions reduction in Egypt. |
| Keywords: | residential energy expenditure, energy efficiency, quantile regression, adaptive lasso, Egypt |
| JEL: | C11 C21 D12 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14011&r=all |
| By: | Adil Outla (UAE - Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi); Koraich Almahdi (UAE - Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi); Moustapha Hamzaoui (UAE - Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the literature on business dynamics, entrepreneurship and the spatial determinants of firms' creation, this study use Exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial panel data to test the spatial patterns and dynamics of cooperatives growth in Morocco. The results confirm the existence of spatial concentration of cooperatives, a global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation with different spatial typologies. The results also show that the main positive spatial determinants for cooperatives growth are the existence of cooperatives culture, the males' unemployment rate, and the density of population. However, there are also negative spatial determinants on the growth and dynamics of cooperatives. These include coops density, firm's density, male activity, Business turnover, population growth, Higher education, primary education, and urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Co-operatives growth,spatial determinants,spatial distribution,social entrepreneurship |
| Date: | 2020–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03089872&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper explores policies to drive diversification for Saudi Arabia. Diversification is needed to create jobs for Saudis and to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in oil markets. Although the business climate should be improved, and remaining infrastructure gaps addressed, reforms need to go beyond these areas. Diversification in Saudi Arabia that creates jobs for nationals could be held back by the effects of relatively high wages and their impact on cost competitiveness. Creative solutions are needed to address the impact of high government wages and employment on competitiveness. Industrial policy could help overcome the incentives that encourage companies to focus on the nontradable sector, but should be handled carefully, keeping lessons from other countries’ experiences in mind. Export orientation and competition are crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Strengthening human capital to raise productivity and provide workers with the skills needed in the private sector will be essential to success. |
| Keywords: | Value-added tax;Exports;Revenue administration;Tax incentives;Excises;ISCR,CR,IMF staff calculation,oil revenue,GCC VAT agreement,venture capital,opportunity cost,revenue benefit |
| Date: | 2019–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/291&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Tunisia’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria, and for Rephasing of Access. This review focuses on stabilizing the economy ahead of the Fall 2019 elections. Civil service wage hikes and a pause in energy price hikes constitute departures from the policies agreed at the Fourth Review. The authorities will adjust their policy mix to correct for these slippages and keep the economy on a stabilization path, while maintaining social cohesion. Structural reforms should focus on enhancing the business climate and improving access to finance to boost private-sector led growth. The appointment of the members of the High Anti-Corruption Authority would help address corruption concerns. Socio-political tensions and deterioration in security are the main risks to the adjustment strategy. Higher oil prices, spillovers from conflicts in the region, a further slowing of EU growth, rising trade tensions, and shifts in investor sentiment could also jeopardize economic stability. |
| Keywords: | External debt;Public debt;Foreign exchange;Energy subsidies;Credit;ISCR,CR,deficit,EFF arrangement |
| Date: | 2019–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/223&r=all |
| By: | Alhawarin, Ibrahim (Al-Hussein Bin Talal University); Assaad, Ragui (University of Minnesota); Elsayed, Ahmed (IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of migration shocks on housing conditions and rental prices for the local population. The identification comes from the regional variation in the large influx of Syrian refugees to Jordan in the wake of the Syrian conflict which started in 2011. Combining detailed household-level surveys with information on where Syrian refugees are concentrated, we employ a difference-in-difference approach and show that the influx had negative impacts on housing quality and increased the rents paid by local households. Residential mobility also increased in response to the flow of refugees, and this could have acted as a channel through which housing quality decreased and may have attenuated the impact on rents. The effects are more pronounced among poorer and less-educated households, those who are arguably in competition with refugees for housing. |
| Keywords: | migration, Syrian refugee crisis, housing, Jordan |
| JEL: | O18 R21 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13969&r=all |
| By: | Facundo Alvaredo (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Denis Cogneau (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab) |
| Abstract: | In this article we assess income inequality across French and British colonial empires between 1920 and 1960. For the first time, income tax tabulations are exploited to assess the case studies of French Algeria, Tunisia, Cameroon, and Vietnam, which we compare to British colonies and dominions. As measured by top income shares, inequality was high in colonies. It fell after WWII, but stabilized at much higher levels than in mainland France or the United Kingdom in the 1950s. European settlers or expatriates comprised the bulk of top income earners, and only a minority of autochthons could compete in terms of income, particularly in Africa. Top income shares were no higher in settlement colonies, not only because those territories were wealthier but also because the average European settler was less rich than the average European expatriate. Inequality between Europeans in colonies was similar to (or even below) that of the metropoles. In settlement colonies, the post-WWII fall in income inequality can be explained by a fall in inequality between Europeans, mirroring that of the metropoles, and does not imply that the European/autochthon income gap was reduced. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Top incomes,Colonialism,Africa,Asia |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03022276&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper discusses the choice and design of rules for Iraq, guided by fiscal policy priorities and the country’s institutional capacity. A ceiling on current spending is proposed as a fiscal rule that would be simple and easy to monitor and support efforts to create space for scaling up capital expenditure, build fiscal buffers to reduce fiscal policy procyclicality, and help secure debt sustainability. A strong policy framework can help Iraq manage the challenges arising from its heavy dependence on volatile oil revenues. The procyclicality of fiscal policy has led to short-term economic volatility and hindered long term development. Important fiscal institutions such as fiscal rules, stabilization funds, and fiscal responsibility laws that exist in many resource-rich countries are lacking in Iraq. Moving to a risk- and rules-based approach can be part of the new policy framework and would be timely. The two main building blocks of this approach involve anchoring fiscal policy on maintaining adequate fiscal buffers, and introducing operational fiscal rules designed to achieve this target for buffers and protect capital expenditure. |
| Keywords: | Expenditure;Oil prices;Fiscal policy;Capital spending;Financial inclusion;ISCR,CR,bank,Iraq,firm,expenditure rule,bank asset quality |
| Date: | 2019–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/249&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper studies the potential for well-sequenced labor and product market reforms to play a more important role in promoting growth and job creation in Morocco. A Dynamic General Equilibrium model is used to assess the macroeconomic effects of different reform scenarios (isolated, coordinated, or sequenced) that reduce hiring costs and/or firms’ entry costs in the presence of a large informal sector. The paper highlights that reforms are most effective if executed in a coordinated fashion, as implementing simultaneous reforms in the labor and product markets could add about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product growth and reduce unemployment by about 2.2 percentage points after five years. If reforms are to be introduced sequentially, due for instance to capacity or political economy constraints, starting with product market reforms is more effective in boosting output in the short-run while starting with labor market reforms would reduce unemployment faster. |
| Keywords: | Labor markets;Unemployment;Employment;Labor market reforms;Job creation;ISCR,CR,cost,firm,labor market,market entry |
| Date: | 2019–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/231&r=all |
| By: | Nicolò Bird (IPC-IG); Wesley Silva (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | Understanding the factors that limit transitions to decent work remains a central concern for policymakers, as changes in the world of work considerably affect the availability and distribution of quality jobs. Many of these global issues are mirrored in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This report by the IPC-IG and UNICEF MENARO focuses on the role of social protection to promote transitions to work for young people in MENA, especially among vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | labour market policies; youth transition to work; MENA; social protection; poverty reduction |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:41&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2019 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring highlights that Iraq’s social conditions remain harsh following the war with ISIS, with slow progress at reconstruction, weak public services and a lack of job opportunities. In the absence of policy changes, a widening budget deficit is expected to divert resources away from essential investment to rebuild the country and improve public services, while eroding reserves and posing risks to medium-term sustainability. Expenditure rigidities and limited fiscal buffers imply a significant vulnerability to oil price shocks in a context of volatile prices. The fiscal and external positions are expected to continue to deteriorate over the medium term absent policy changes—with reserves falling below adequate levels and fiscal buffers eroded. In a context of highly volatile oil prices, the major risk to the outlook is a fall in oil prices which would lower exports and budgetary revenues, leading to an even sharper decline in reserves or higher public debt. Geopolitical tensions, the potential for social unrest in a context of weak public services and lack of progress in combatting corruption pose further risks. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;Oil prices;Expenditure;Public financial management (PFM);Capital spending;ISCR,CR,government,CBI governance,price,face challenge,debt |
| Date: | 2019–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/248&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | International Economics and Trade - Foreign Direct Investment Private Sector Development - Legal Regulation and Business Environment Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33594&r=all |
| By: | Abosedra, Salah; Fakih, Ali; Haimoun, Nathir |
| Abstract: | While most civil wars seem to have an economic basis, they are generally pushed by political, ethnic, and religious differences. This paper attempts to identify the drivers of the Syrian civil war of 2011 by investigating the role of ethnic divisions in starting a conflict. We integrate a variety of variables such as excluded population, power-sharing, anocracy, ethnic groups in addition to a number of economic factors. The main results indicate that ethnicity does not seem to be a very important factor in starting both the civil and ethnic conflict in Syria, but it shows that the lack of power-sharing to be the most significant factor. Therefore, where power in Syria was not inclusive and shared among different demographic segments, such as religious or urban groups, it created upheavals between different groups, as some groups disidentify with the state, paving the way to causing the conflict. Economic factors also provide an explanation of the onset of conflicts in Syria. The paper offers detailed policy suggestions that could serve as a recovery mechanism for the Syrian crisis and a preventive measurement for its reoccurrence. |
| Keywords: | Armed Conflicts,Ethnic Conflicts,Ethnic Groups,Power-Sharing,Syria |
| JEL: | D74 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:754&r=all |
| By: | Jeremy Srouji (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, ISS - International Institute of Social Studies (ISS), Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | Since the oil price downturn of 2015, the United Arab Emirates and fellow Gulf Cooperation Council countries have worked hard to expand digital payments in the interest of improved tax and revenue collection, transparency, and security. Yet despite a deep transformation and diversification of their payment ecosystems and the formalization of plans to become "cashless economies" modelled on South Korea and Sweden, cash continues to dominate payments in both countries. While industry players typically attribute the prevalence of cash in the region to questions of infrastructure readiness, transaction costs, and cyber-security, this paper finds that plans to expand digital payments at the expense of cash may not be well-adapted to countries with high levels of socioeconomic inequality. It proposes a link between socioeconomic inequality and use of cash in emerging economies, and concludes that it may be better to not view the relationship between cash and digital payments in binary zero-sum terms, until there is a better understanding of the socioeconomic , technological, and policy context in which countries like South Korea and Sweden have managed to reduce their reliance on cash in favor of a diversified digital payments ecosystem . |
| Keywords: | digital payments,cashless economy,financial inclusion,complementary currencies,inequality,non-cash transactions,Gulf Cooperation Council,oil economies,remittances |
| Date: | 2020–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03015357&r=all |
| By: | Dogan, Mesut; Kevser, Mustafa |
| Abstract: | Purpose: The purpose of this research is to reveal the effect of firms' intellectual capital on financial performance. Firms invest in intangible assets as well as tangible assets in order to gain competitive advantage (Atan ve Tuncer, 2019). Within the scope of intangible fixed assets, the most investment is made to intellectual capital. Intellectual capital has three basic dimensions: human capital, structural capital and customer capital (Soylu, 2020). In the 21st century, where technology changes and develops very rapidly, companies create added value by using their intellectual capital and turn the added value into profit. In this respect, intellectual capital is knowledge that can turn into profit (Çetin, 2005). Methodology: The intellectual capital levels of companies operating in the Borsa Istanbul Industrial Index were measured by the Intellectual Value Added Coefficient (VAIC) method for the period of 2015-2019. The relationship between the obtained coefficient and financial performance indicators, return on assets ratio (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and Tobin's Q ratio, was analyzed by panel data method. Findings: According to the results of the research, there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between the intellectual capital coefficient and profitability rates and Tobin's Q ratio. Conclusion- The results obtained show the positive effect of intellectual capital on firm performance. Companies can focus on intellectual capital investments and increase their productivity for sustainable financial performance. |
| Keywords: | Intellectual capital,ROA,ROE,Tobin’s Q,intellectual value added coefficient |
| JEL: | C61 E22 G30 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:228516&r=all |
| By: | Daysal, N. Meltem (University of Copenhagen); Kucukbayrak, Muserref (Central Bank of Turkey); Tumen, Semih (TED University) |
| Abstract: | We exploit an age-specific minimum wage rule – which sets a lower minimum wage for workers of age 15 than that for workers of age 16 and above in Turkey – and its abolition to estimate the causal effect of a minimum wage increase on youth employment and education. Using a regression discontinuity design in tandem with a difference-in-discontinuities analysis, we find that increasing the minimum wage substantially reduces the employment of young males. In terms of magnitudes, the employment probability declines by 2.5-3.1 percentage points at the 16-year-old age cut-off. Moreover, the probability of unemployment increases approximately 2 percentage points. We also document that the minimum wage hike does not generate a major change in high school enrollment, while the likelihood of transitioning into "neither in employment nor in education and training" (NEET) category notably increases among young males. We argue that the effects of the policy have mostly been driven by the demand-side forces rather than the supply side. |
| Keywords: | age-specific minimum wages, youth employment, education, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13982&r=all |