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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Nelly El-Mallakh (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Did the Egyptian protests lead to political change? I examine the effects of the first and second waves of Egyptian protests that started in 2011, on voting outcomes during Egypt's first free Presidential elections that took place between May and June 2012. I geocoded the “martyrs” - demonstrators who died during the protests - using unique information from the Statistical Database of the Egyptian Revolution and exploited the variation in districts' exposure to the Egyptian protests. Using official elections' results collected from the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) and controlling for districts' characteristics using Census data, I find suggestive evidence that higher exposure to protests' intensity leads to a higher share of votes for former regime candidates, both during the first and second rounds of Egypt's first presidential elections after the uprisings. From the period of euphoria following the toppling of Mubarak to the sobering realities of the political transition process, I find that protests led to a conservative backlash, alongside negative economic expectations, general dissatisfaction with government performance, decreasing levels of trust towards public institutions, and increasing recognition of limitations on civil and political liberties. |
| Keywords: | Egyptian protests,Presidential elections,voting outcomes,martyrs |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01625199&r=ara |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (University of Marburg); Pooya Alaedini (University of Tehran); Khayyam Azizimehr (University of Tehran) |
| Abstract: | This study probes the middle class in Iran in relation to oil rents and political development. We begin by discussing how the Iranian middle class has evolved through the 1979 Revolution and in the post-revolutionary period. We then empirically examine the relationships among per capita oil-rent shocks, the growth of the middle class, and the quality of political institutions as well as political conflict. We use annual time series data for 1965-2012 and employ a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model along with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses. According to our results, the middle class response to positive oil shocks is positive and significant. Yet, positive oil shocks and the growth of the middle class have contrary effects on the quality of political institutions in the short term—negative and positive respectively. This prompts us to employ a weighted measure of conflict, whose positive response to the growth of the middle class in Iran we then capture. These results are robust when controlling for other channels in the nexus of oil rents and middle class. The estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models illustrated the long-run effects of oil rents on the size of middle class and long-run effects of both middle class and oil rents on conflict. Our findings hint at potential conflicts after oil shocks, whereby oil rents increase government’s control over political institutions but at the same time give impetus to the growth of the middle class that is in turn associated with political instability. |
| Keywords: | Middle class; Oil rents; Political institutions; Conflict; VAR model; ARDL model; Iran; Middle East |
| JEL: | O1 O4 Q3 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201756&r=ara |
| By: | Ali Souag (University of Mascara, CREAD, University Paris Est Creteil, ERUDITE); Ragui Assaad |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the Action Plan for Promoting Employment and Combating Unemployment, a labor market intermediation program adopted by the Algerian government in 2008, reduced the informality of employment in Algeria. Using repeated cross-section data from the Household Survey on Employment for the period from 1997 to 2013, and a difference-in-difference methodology, we estimate whether the Action Plan has reduced the probability that workers are employed informally in enterprises of more than 5 workers — the type of enterprise that is most likely to be directly affected by the Action Plan. Our results show that the Action Plan has in fact contributed to reducing employment informality in such enterprises, but with heterogeneous effects. More precisely, it reduced informality for employees of establishments of 10 workers or more but had no significant effects on informality for those working in enterprises of 5 to 9 workers. Furthermore, when we restrict our estimates to new entrants only, we do not find statistically significant effects. |
| Date: | 2017–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1161&r=ara |
| By: | Socrat Ghadban (CERTOP - Centre d'Etude et de Recherche Travail Organisation Pouvoir - UT2 - Université Toulouse 2 - UPS - Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Lebanese University [Beirut]); Maya Shames (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jad Arrage (Lebanese University [Beirut]); Amal Fayyad (Lebanese University [Beirut]) |
| Abstract: | The concept of rural tourism encompasses many forms of tourism, such as nature-based tourism, community-based tourism, ecotourism, agro-tourism, and many more. Scholars consider tourism an important tool for revenue generation for communities living in rural areas. However, ineffective planning and management of the tourism industry may lead to undesired results in rural destinations, sometimes negatively affecting their rich natural and cultural heritage. In Lebanon, the last decade witnessed an increase of the rural tourism share within the tourism industry. Until today, there are no scientific studies of the supply and demand for this sector in Lebanon. This survey aims to analyze the demand for rural tourism among the domestic market hoping to provide information for actors in the field. The data show-case evidences about the needs, preferences and expectations of potential urban travelers, and factors affecting them. Data collection was completed in May 2014 with a sample of 436 persons, mostly Lebanese urban inhabitants, during the Travel Lebanon exhibition dedicated to promote rural tourism in Lebanon. The statistical analysis revealed important information about the perception and behavior of potential visitors. Personal characteristics, especially respondents' personal income and cultural background, have been identified as major factors that affect their decision-making process regarding tourism services and facilities. Results also revealed a lack of awareness by the surveyed respondents about critical sustainable tourism issues in rural areas, and a visitor perception that is somewhat different from what is actually being provided by tourism stakeholders in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Rural tourism,domestic tourism,demand analysis,motivations and preferences |
| Date: | 2017–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-01655526&r=ara |
| By: | Lucia Hanmer (The World Bank); Edinaldo Tebaldi; Dorte Verner |
| Abstract: | There are significant differences between men and women’s labor market outcomes Tunisia. The size of these gender gaps shows substantial variation across regions, notably between the richer coastal and eastern regions and the poorer southern and western regions. This Paper uses the 2014 Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey (TLMPS) to examine the characteristics of male and female labor market participants in the lagging southern, western, and central regions, and in the leading regions. It also discusses the factors that influence monthly wages and the probability of employment for men and women respectively. Our results show that gender plays a huge role in labor market outcomes: women are less likely to participate in the labor force and are more likely to be unemployed and to receive lower wages. Young people and educated women in lagging regions are particularly disadvantaged as they are less likely to find a job and may not have the option to move to places where the prospect of employment is better. Moreover, our results suggest that wage discrimination against women is prevalent outside the leading region in Tunisia. |
| Date: | 2017–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1163&r=ara |
| By: | Imed Limam (Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development); Abdelwahab Ben Hafaiedh |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at identifying the main determinants of earnings, estimating the private returns to education and highlighting the main sources of heterogeneity in these returns in Tunisia. The estimation results show that education is an important determinant of private earnings. However, the private rate of return to schooling is relatively low by international standards, especially for basic education. It is argued that in addition to the limited capacity of the economy to create high-productivity jobs, institutional factors such as the low quality of education, rigid tracking system after secondary education, inadequacy of the available skills for the need of the private sector and nepotism may explain the low and heterogeneous returns to education in Tunisia. The returns to schooling are found to increase by level of education showing a systematic bias toward higher levels of education at the expense of basic education, due to credentialism and focus on certification. We find evidence of heterogeneity of returns to higher education across varying regions and socioeconomic backgrounds, which undermines the role of education as a social elevator. Regional disparities by place of residence, both in earnings and returns to higher education, may be explained by the lack of economic opportunities and low exposure to market forces in many inland regions, which is reminiscent of an unbalanced regional development. These disparities may also be attributed to information failure as good employment opportunities are less visible to jobseekers in rural and inland areas. We also argue that rural-urban disparity in returns to higher education by place of birth may be explained by differentiated early-life conditions in terms of socio-economic and family backgrounds as well as inequality of opportunity in access to quality education. Moreover, educational wage differentials are found to be significant between the formal private sector and the informal sector, between the public and private sectors and across occupational categories. These results are used to suggest directions to strengthen the role of public policies in reducing inequality of opportunities in both schooling and earnings. |
| Date: | 2017–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1162&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Iraq is an oil-dependent and state-dominated fragile economy that has been hit hard by the conflict with ISIS and the fall in oil prices. The conflict has hurt the economy through displacement and impoverishment of millions of people, and destruction of infrastructure and assets. The oil price decline has resulted in a massive reduction in budget revenue, pushing the fiscal deficit to an unsustainable level. The authorities are responding to the crisis with ambitious but necessary fiscal adjustment while maintaining their commitment to the exchange rate peg, which provides a key nominal anchor in a highly uncertain environment. |
| Keywords: | Iraq;Middle East; |
| Date: | 2017–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/251&r=ara |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit; Keskin, Halil Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | The strong relationship between various health indicators and education is widely documented. However, the studies that investigate the nature of causality between these variables became available only recently and provide evidence mostly from developed countries. We add to this literature by studying the causal effect of education on days hospitalized and days out of work for health reasons. We consider two educational reforms. One is the educational expansion of the early 1960s and the other is the 1997 increase in compulsory level of schooling from five to eight years. However, due to the possibility of weak instruments we do not further pursue this avenue. We focus on individuals in two cohorts namely, 1945-1965 which is an older cohort and 1980-1980 which is a younger cohort. We estimate Tobit models as well as Double Hurdle models. The results suggest that an increase in years of education causes to reduce the number of days hospitalized for both men and women unambiguously and the number of days out of work only for men while an increase in education increases the number of days out of work for a randomly selected women. |
| Keywords: | Education, Days hospitalized, Days out of work, Education reform, Tobit model, Double Hurdle model, Gender, Turkey |
| JEL: | C34 C36 I15 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2017–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83227&r=ara |
| By: | Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Durmaz, Nazif |
| Abstract: | In testing the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance, the emphasis has now shifted towards application of asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling. Such approach that introduces nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate yields results that are different than linear models. When we apply these new advanced techniques to the trade balance of 57 industries that trade between Turkey and EU, indeed we find short-run asymmetry effects in all industries, short run adjustment asymmetry in 24 industries, short-run impact asymmetry in 17 industries, and long-run asymmetry effects in 23 industries. Small and large industries seem to be subject to the same asymmetry effects. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric Cointegration, Nonlinear ARDL, Turkish-EU Trade, Industry data, J-Curve. |
| JEL: | F1 F3 |
| Date: | 2016–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83183&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Iraq; |
| Date: | 2017–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/252&r=ara |
| By: | Aysıt Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany; Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt); Halil İbrahim Keskin (Department of Econometrics, Cukurova University, Saricam, Adana, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | The strong relationship between various health indicators and education is widely documented. However, the studies that investigate the nature of causality between these variables became available only recently and provide evidence mostly from developed countries. We add to this literature by studying the causal effect of education on days hospitalized and days out of work for health reasons. We consider two educational reforms. One is the educational expansion of the early 1960s and the other is the 1997 increase in compulsory level of schooling from five to eight years. However, due to the possibility of weak instruments we do not further pursue this avenue. We focus on individuals in two cohorts namely, 1945-1965 which is an older cohort and 1980-1980 which is a younger cohort. We estimate Tobit models as well as Double Hurdle models. The results suggest that an increase in years of education causes to reduce the number of days hospitalized for both men and women unambiguously and the number of days out of work only for men while an increase in education increases the number of days out of work for a randomly selected women. |
| Keywords: | Education, Days hospitalized, Days out of work, Education reform, Tobit model, Double Hurdle model, Gender, Turkey. |
| JEL: | I15 J16 J18 C34 C36 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1715&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University, ERF & IZA); Halil Ibrahim Keskin (Department of Econometrics Cukurova University, Saricam, Adana, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | The strong relationship between various health indicators and education is widely documented. However, the studies that investigate the nature of causality between these variables became available only recently and provide evidence mostly from developed countries. We add to this literature by studying the causal effect of education on days hospitalized and days out of work for health reasons. We consider two educational reforms. One is the educational expansion of the early 1960s and the other is the 1997 increase in compulsory level of schooling from five to eight years. However, due to the possibility of weak instruments we do not further pursue this avenue. We focus on individuals in two cohorts namely, 1945-1965 which is an older cohort and 1980-1980 which is a younger cohort. We estimate Tobit models as well as Double Hurdle models. The results suggest that an increase in years of education causes to reduce the number of days hospitalized for both men and women unambiguously and the number of days out of work only for men while an increase in education increases the number of days out of work for a randomly selected women. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2017/7&r=ara |
| By: | Rachid Mira (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | La restructuration des entreprises publiques en Algérie en vue de leur insertion dans un modèle d'économie de marché a nécessité depuis les années 1980 la mise en place d'un ensemble d'institutions et la transition d'un mode de régulation monopoliste vers un mode plus concur-rentiel. Cependant, l'institution Etat est restée jusqu'à nos jours l'institution clé soutenant un régime d'accumulation dépendant des ressources en hydrocarbures. La politique budgétaire et financière de l'Etat a donc soutenu et financé la restructuration des entreprises publiques dans le cadre d'une nouvelle stratégie industrielle orientée vers la substitution d'importation et la diversification des exportations. La restructuration de la SNVI opérée depuis les années 1990 s'est inscrite dans une démarche globale de politique industrielle visant à assainir les entreprises pu-bliques et refinancer les investissements productifs en vue de pouvoir soit privatiser, soit nouer des partenariats. Cette stratégie a nécessité le transfert de ressources budgétaires pour financer les investissements et assainir la dette et les découverts bancaires qui a constitué un coût du capital supporté par l'Etat. La politique de partenariat avec des investisseurs étrangers vise à poursuivre un processus de restructuration et de restauration de la compétitivité sur un marché ouvert à la concurrence mais sous régulation sous régulation de l'Etat. |
| Keywords: | Economic transition,Algeria,industrial development,public expenditures |
| Date: | 2017–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-01593280&r=ara |