|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Turkey has made considerable strides in enhancing its fiscal transparency practices over the past decade and a half. Since first volunteering for a Fiscal Transparency ROSC1 in 2000, Turkey has substantially improved the comprehensiveness, timeliness, and reliability of publicly available fiscal information. In particular, over the past 15 years |
| Keywords: | Europe;Turkey; |
| Date: | 2017–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/208&r=ara |
| By: | Schulte, Simon (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Weiser, Florian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | Turkey is a key country in order to realize the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) due to its geographical location. However, as the main transit country within the SGC, Turkey could potentially exert market power with gas transits. Whether Turkey exerts market power or not, is crucial for an economic assessment of the SGC. Hence, the article investigates this issue quantitatively using a global partial equilibrium gas market model. An oligopolistic and a competitive supply structure in Europe in 2030 are considered in the model. If the European gas market in 2030 is characterized by an oligopolistic supply, Turkey is able to exert market power resulting in higher prices compared to competitive transits, in particular in South Eastern Europe. In a competitive market structure, however, the importance of the SGC and thus the potential of Turkish transit market power is limited. |
| Keywords: | Natural Gas; Southern Gas Corridor; Transit Market Power; Mixed Complementarity Problem |
| JEL: | L13 L95 |
| Date: | 2017–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2017_006&r=ara |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run term and the short run term impacts of vegetables exports on economic growth of Tunisia. In order, to achieve this purpose, annual data were collected from the reports of World Bank for the periods between 1970 and 2015, was tested by using Correlation Analysis, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) stationary test, co integration analysis of Vector Error Correction Model. According to the result of the analysis, vegetables exports have a positive effect on economic growth in the long run term and in the short run term. These results provide on evidence that vegetables exports, thus, are seen as source of economic growth in Tunisia. For this reason, it is very important to refine investment in this sector. |
| Keywords: | Vegetables Exports, Economic Growth, Cointegration, VECM, Tunisia |
| JEL: | F0 F1 F11 F13 F14 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80722&r=ara |
| By: | Driouchi, Ahmed; Harkat, Tahar |
| Abstract: | Abstract: The current research analyzes the trend of the NEETs, or young individuals that are not in education, employment, or training, in the Arab economies, based on the estimated NEET data in the contribution of Driouchi and Harkat (2017). Evidence shows that the trends of the NEETs are increasing in 9 Arab economies, decreasing in Algeria and statistically not significant for the remaining countries. This is assumed to be related to the absence of policies, programs, and strategies that directly target this category of youth. The present contribution assesses also, the determinants of the NEETs using Granger Causality test. The link between this category of youth and variables such as education, macroeconomic, and governance is assessed. The empirical findings indicate that each of the Arab economies exhibits a unique model with specific factors leading to the changes of this segment of population. This provides supporting evidence of the surrounding environment of the NEETs, and gives incentives to policy makers for monitoring through targeted policies, the significant factors that enable this category of youth. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: NEETs, Arab countries, Causality, Policies, Targeting |
| JEL: | I25 J62 J68 |
| Date: | 2017–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80622&r=ara |
| By: | Di Paolo, Antonio (University of Barcelona); Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the drivers of wage differences among college graduates who hold a degree in a different field of study. We focus on Turkey, an emerging country that is characterized by a sustained expansion of higher education. We estimate conditional wage gaps by field of study using OLS regressions. Average differentials are subsequently decomposed into the contribution of observable characteristics (endowment) and unobservable characteristics (returns). To shed light on distributional wage disparities by field of study, we provide estimates along the unconditional wage distribution by means of RIF-Regressions. Finally, we also decompose the contribution of explained and unexplained factors in accounting for wage gaps along the whole distribution. As such, this is the first work providing evidence on distributional wage differences by college major for a developing country. The results indicate the existence of important wage differences by field of study, which are partly accounted by differences in observable characteristics (especially occupation and, to a lesser extent, employment sector). These pay gaps are also heterogeneous over the unconditional distribution of wages, as is the share of wage differentials that can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics across workers with degrees in different fields of study. |
| Keywords: | fields of study, wage differentials, decomposition, unconditional wage distribution, Turkey |
| JEL: | J31 J24 I23 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10915&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The UAE is adjusting to the “lower-for-longer” oil price environment from a position of strength, which is reflected in its large financial buffers, long-standing safe-haven status, diversified and business-friendly economy, and sound financial system. The authorities are further streamlining spending and improving the business environment. Yet fiscal and external balances have weakened, the economy has decelerated, and banks are having to adapt to the more challenging environment. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;United Arab Emirates; |
| Date: | 2017–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/218&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2017–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/219&r=ara |
| By: | Altindag, Duha T. (Auburn University); Filiz, S. Elif (University of Southern Mississippi); Tekin, Erdal (American University) |
| Abstract: | An important question in representative democracies is how to ensure that politicians behave in the best interest of citizens rather than their own private interests. Aside from elections, one of the few institutional devices available to regulate the actions of politicians is their pay structure. In this paper, we provide fresh insights into the impact of politician salaries on their performance using a unique law change implemented in 2012 in Turkey. Specifically, the members of the parliament (MPs) in Turkey who are retired from their pre-political career jobs earn a pension bonus on top of their MP salaries. The law change in 2012 significantly increased the pension bonus by pegging it to 18 percent of the salary of the President of Turkey, while keeping the salaries of non-retired MPs unchanged. By exploiting the variation in total salaries caused by the new law in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that the salary increase had a negative impact on the performance of the retired MPs. In particular, the overall performance of these MPs was lowered by 12.3 percent of a standard deviation as a result of the increase in salary caused by the new law. This finding is robust to numerous specification tests. Furthermore, the results obtained from an auxiliary analysis suggest that one of the mechanisms through which MPs reduce their performance is through absenteeism. |
| Keywords: | politician, MP, members of the parliament, performance, salary, bonus, Turkey, election |
| JEL: | J22 J26 J33 J45 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10923&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A fragile economy in a complex socio-political environment. Tunisia’s political transition advanced, but social discontent remains elevated. After almost stagnating over 2015–16, growth will pick up in 2017 to 2.3 percent helped by tourism and phosphates. Structural deficiencies, an overvalued real exchange rate and weak confidence after the 2015 attacks continue to weigh on investment. Exogenous shocks and policy slippages contributed to widen the current account deficit by more than 10 percent of GDP in the first quarter of 2017. The dinar depreciated by 23 percent in nominal effective terms since end-2015; this and a broad-based rise in prices led the Central Bank to increase its policy interest rate by 75 bps to 5 percent over the last month to contain inflation below 5 percent in 2017. |
| Keywords: | Tunisia;Middle East; |
| Date: | 2017–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/203&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Jordan has made significant progress since the 2014 Article IV consultation, but challenges are still pressing. The economy has proven resilient in the face of severe external shocks. The exchange rate peg remains an important anchor, reserves are comfortable, and the financial system is sound. The fiscal deficit has narrowed, while monetary policy has supported growth. However, Jordan’s performance has lagged other emerging markets, with growth below potential, high unemployment, and elevated public debt—and with regional conflicts and Syrian refugees continuing to weigh on social conditions, public finances, investment, and the current account. |
| Keywords: | Jordan;Middle East; |
| Date: | 2017–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/231&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Jordan: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Jordan; |
| Date: | 2017–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/232&r=ara |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically analyzes the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in Tunisia. Econometrical specifications are based on a neoclassical production function to explain this goal and the data cover the period 1988-2014. Empirical results show that agricultural exports have a positive effect on economic growth. The causality test proves the existence of a causal relationship from economic growth to agricultural exports. These results favor in particular a police economy promoting investment in the Tunisian agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | agricultural exports, economic growth, the causality test, Tunisia. |
| JEL: | F1 F11 F13 F14 Q17 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80655&r=ara |
| By: | Mabrouki, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | By granting protection rights, the society provides an incentive for economic agents to invest more in research and development. The patent is also likely to encourage the production of innovations and ensure the dissemination of knowledge, which promotes economic growth. This work aims to analyze the situation of patent protection in the framework of the Tunisian economy. |
| Keywords: | Industrial property, Patent, Innovation, research and development, Tunisia |
| JEL: | O31 O34 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80696&r=ara |
| By: | Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı; Çevik, Emrah İsmail |
| Abstract: | The aim of the study is to examine the effects of financial openness on Turkey economy for the periods of 1993-2016. We consider real GDP for economic growth variable in the study and financial openness variable is calculated regarding to definition by Aizenman (2004). We employ both Granger causality test and asymmetric causality test proposed by Hatemi-J (2012) to determine dynamic relation between economic growth and financial openness. We find bidirectional causal link running from economic growth to financial openness according to symmetric causality test result. Asymmetric causality test results suggest that financial openness is positively affected from economic contraction and economic growth effects financial openness as negatively. |
| Keywords: | Financial openness, GDP, asymmetric causality |
| JEL: | C32 E44 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80472&r=ara |