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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Asteris Huliaras; Sophia Kalantzakos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Greece’s relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Greek-Arab ties have a long history that goes back to 1947, when Greece voted against the partition of Palestine in the UN General Assembly. In the post-1974 era, these relations have been strengthened, reflecting Athens’ efforts to gain support in the dispute with Turkey and secure oil supplies. Within the last ten years, such security objectives of Greek foreign policy have moved to the background and economic priorities have come to the fore. This has made relations with the Gulf States a crucial economic and diplomatic goal that has not been undermined by its ties to Iran and Israel. While the country’s commercial relations with the GCC are regulated through the EU framework, it is through bilateral relations that Greece seeks to build its ties to the Gulf. Until now, the high expectations cultivated on the Greek side have not been fulfilled. Greece’s relations with the GCC countries have remained anemic and investment limited. While a possible Grexit may have initially dampened investors’ interest, the main obstacle continues to be one of domestic nature, reflecting the fragmentation and lack of coordination within Greek institutions themselves. |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:96&r=ara |
| By: | El Alaoui, Aicha |
| Abstract: | This paper tries to examine if women’s education affects the economic growth. To illustrate this aim, four countries cases have been presented: Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria, named MATE. The motive behind choosing them was because these countries have many common religious and cultural norms and values. The statistical analysis of data over the period 1960-2012 shows that the relationship between fertility rate and different measures of education is negative. Averages literacy rate and labour participation of the female are less than that of male. Two panel models are estimated over the period 2000-2012: a 'general' panel model and a 'gender' panel model. In the first model, the explanatory variables are introduced without gender’s characteristics in order to measure their impact on the economic growth. In the second model, the explanatory variables are introduced in the first model with gender’s distinguishing excluding variables that measure the quality of governance and institutional. The main findings are that women’s education, particularly, tertiary education, women’s labour force participation and institutional capital affect positively economic growth. On the contrary, the primary and secondary school enrolment are negatively linked to the economic growth. This paper concludes that women’s tertiary education is a master-key to economic growth and development accompanied by a healthy and good quality of institutional capital and by eliminating all forms of gender discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, Panel analysis, Women’s education, Institutional capital |
| JEL: | C23 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69787&r=ara |
| By: | Erdem Ozluk (Selcuk University) |
| Abstract: | Recently Turkey and Russia relations are undergoing a serious crisis since the downing of the Russian warplane by Turkish air forces for the violation of the Turkish airspace on 24 November 2015. As a matter of fact, relations between two countries were at the highest level after the end of the Cold War and there was a growing collaboration in terms of political and economic relations between two countries. For example, in 2010, both countries agreed to allow visa-free travel and reached an agreement for building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. However, because of the regional expansion of Russian power for the last decade, Turkey and Russia has started to hold opposing views on how to overcome regional problems. Especially after the Russian interventionist policies towards first Georgia and Ukraine and then the civil war in Syria, relations between the two countries have sharply deteriorated. Indeed, the ongoing crisis between the two countries is not just related with the civil war in Syria or the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane. Because there have been potential tensions between the two countries in many areas and factors since the end of the Cold War such as Azerbaijan and Armenia relations, Iran and nuclear crisis, transportation routes for hydrocarbon energy supplies, Chechnya in Russia and Kurdish issue in Turkey, geopolitical and military balances in the Black Sea region. The ongoing crisis has escalated in the aftermath the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane. This study argues that the normalization of Russia-Turkey relations in a short time is of utmost importance for the resolution of numerous conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the civil war in Syria and the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). This study also seeks to answer the following questions; what should be done in order to deescalate the crisis? How this crisis may affect the future of war in Syria in particular and certain problems in the Middle East region in general? |
| Keywords: | Russia, Turkey, Middle East, War in Syria |
| JEL: | F50 F51 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3305829&r=ara |
| By: | Ahmet Benlialper (Ipek University); Hasan Comert (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to evaluate the developments in Turkish monetary policy after 2002 and understand constraints on the effectiveness of The Turkish Central Bank (CBRT). The CBRT has significantly altered its monetary policy in response to the crisis. It became much more experimental and aware of challenges it faced. However, the Bank’s ability to exert influence on key variables seems to have been restrained by factors outside of its control. Financial flows exert great influence on key macroeconomic variables the Bank monitors closely. Furthermore, energy prices are among the key determinants of inflation in Turkey. As a result, the Bank’s influence on growth and inflation through intermediate variables became a daunting task. The magnitude and direction of flows seem to be mainly related to global risk perception determining the worldwide liquidity conditions rather than domestic factors. Under these conditions central banks may not set their official interest rates independent of interest rates in advanced countries. Indeed, our VAR analysis exercise supports this argument for the Turkish case. Existing policy framework would not produce desired outcomes unless the sources of the problems such as financial flows as the main global constraints on monetary policy are addressed in a much more serious manner |
| Keywords: | central banking, economic and financial crisis, capital inflows, the Turkish economy |
| JEL: | E52 E52 G01 F31 F32 O53 |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper111&r=ara |
| By: | Tammuz Alraheb (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société); Amine Tarazi (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of global and local crises on bank stability and examine the effect of owning bank subsidiaries in other countries. We consider banks from MENA countries which experienced both types of crises during our sample period. Our findings highlight a negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 on bank stability but, on the whole, no negative impact of the 'Arab Spring'. A deeper investigation shows that owning subsidiaries outside the home country is a source of increased fragility during normal times, yet a source of higher stability during the 'Arab Spring' but not during the global financial crisis. Moreover, owning foreign subsidiaries in one or two world regions is insufficient to neutralize the 'Arab Spring' crisis, while being present in three or more regions is more stabilizing during the 'Arab Spring' but also more destabilizing during the global financial crisis. Our findings contribute to the literature examining bank stability and have several policy implications. (T. Al Raheb). c Email: amine.tarazi@unilim.fr (A. Tarazi) 2 Local Versus International Crises, Foreign Subsidiaries and Bank Stability: Evidence from the MENA Region. Abstract We investigate the impact of global and local crises on bank stability and examine the effect of owning bank subsidiaries in other countries. We consider banks from MENA countries which experienced both types of crises during our sample period. Our findings highlight a negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 on bank stability but, on the whole, no negative impact of the 'Arab Spring'. A deeper investigation shows that owning subsidiaries outside the home country is a source of increased fragility during normal times, yet a source of higher stability during the 'Arab Spring' but not during the global financial crisis. Moreover, owning foreign subsidiaries in one or two world regions is insufficient to neutralize the 'Arab Spring' crisis, while being present in three or more regions is more stabilizing during the 'Arab Spring' but also more destabilizing during the global financial crisis. Our findings contribute to the literature examining bank stability and have several policy implications. |
| Keywords: | MENA region,Bank stability,Subsidiaries,Financial crises |
| Date: | 2016–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01270806&r=ara |
| By: | Nuri Calik (Turgut Ozal University); Celil Koparal (Anadolu University) |
| Abstract: | This survey intends to find out consumers’ expectations and perceptions about the service quality offered by service companies and retail outlets. A survey is applied to 470 respondents selected via stratified sampling from Ankara, the capital of Turkey with 4.5 million inhabitants. The respondents are required to answer 35 questions of which last five are related to demographic characteristics of these respondents. The rest 30 are statements which are designed to reflect the service quality perceptions of these people. The study consists of five parts. The first part is an introduction where the scope and the purpose of the study are concisely stated. The second part relates to the theoretical background of the subject matter and the prior researches carried out so far. The third part deals with research methodology, basic premises and hypotheses attached to these premises. Research model and analyses take place in this section. Theoretical framework is built and a variable name is assigned to each of the question asked or proposition forwarded to the respondents of this survey. 30 statements or propositions given to the respondents are placed on a five-point Likert scale where 1 represents strongly disagree; 2 disagree; 3 neither agree nor disagree; 4 agree and 5 strongly agree. The last five questions about demographic traits as age, gender, occupation, educational level and monthly income are placed either on a nominal or ratio scale with respect to the nature of the trait. Fiveresearch hypotheses are formulated in this section. The fourth part mainly deals with the results of the hypothesis tests and a factor analysis is applied to the data on hand. Here exploratory factor analysis reduces 30 variables to five basic components. KMO test of sampling adequacy and scale reliability test proved high scores as 0.855 and 0.806 respectively. In addition non-parametric biraviate analysis in terms of Chi-Square test is applied to test the hypotheses formulated in this respect. The fifth part is the conclusion where findings of this survey is listed. |
| Keywords: | Perceived service quality, customers' trust, customers' ambiguity, servicequality assurance, service reiability |
| JEL: | M31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:3205846&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The macro-economic situation continues to improve. Growth is recovering and should reach 4.7 percent in 2015, but non-agricultural activity remains sluggish. Inflation remains low. The authorities appear to be on track to meet the 2015 public deficit target of 4.3 percent of GDP. The external position continues to improve, benefiting from lower oil prices, the current account deficit will narrow to about 1.5 percent of GDP in 2015 and international reserves will exceed 110 percent of the Fund’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric. Poverty rates, unemployment and inequalities have declined, but much remains to be done to reduce structural unemployment, increase labor force participation rates, and secure higher and more inclusive growth. Reforms have slowed down somewhat, especially pension reform and the new central bank law. The 2015 FSAP assessed that banks are well capitalized and profitable, and benefit from stable funding. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Unemployment;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Government expenditures;Education;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Flexible exchange rate policy;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Morocco; |
| Date: | 2016–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/35&r=ara |
| By: | AyÅŸe Arat (Selcuk University, Faculty of Law) |
| Abstract: | Step children are viewed pity for all cultures. Even foster parents are always evil in tales. In real life, the situation is not the same for all step children, but there is no doubt that this is a sensitive subject. The rule of law has brought protective provisions in favor of children because they are incapable. So that parents’ custody on children has been limited to various provisions against abuse. The striking one among these limiting provisions is a provision for interest and pay attention to spouses minors of the stepchildren (TCC. Art. 338). This is relatively new in terms of the provisions of Turkish law, not only leads to the emergence of a set of results but also for an advice. The beginning of these results, if step parents' behavior violates obligation of care and his own mother or father condone this, the custody of child's can be removed and even care obligating violation of a defective behavior for spouses' divorce. In our study, according to the Turkish Civil Law provisions in the general framework of the protection of children, in particular the step child protection and violation of care obligations to the step children the sanctions that may arise are evaluated. |
| Keywords: | Step-child, Protection of Step-child, Stepchild at the Turkish Civil Law. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3306092&r=ara |
| By: | Gozgor, Giray; Can, Muhlis |
| Abstract: | Countries try to stabilize the demand for energy on one hand and sustain economic growth on other, but the worsening global warming and climate change problems have put pressure on them. This paper estimates the environmental Kuznets curve over the period 1971–2010 in Turkey both in the short and the long run. For this purpose, the unit root test with one structural break and the cointegration analysis with multiple endogenous structural breaks are used. The effects of energy consumption and export product diversification on CO2 emissions are also controlled in the dynamic empirical models. It is observed that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in Turkey in both the short run and the long run. The positive effect of energy consumption on CO2 emissions is also obtained in the long run. In addition, it is found that a greater product diversification of exports yields higher CO2 emissions in the long run. Inferences and policy implications are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | environmental Kuznets curve; energy consumption; export product diversification; time series modeling; structural breaks |
| JEL: | C32 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2016–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69761&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Morocco: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy;Government expenditures;Education;Consumption;Economic models;Selected Issues Papers;Morocco; |
| Date: | 2016–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/36&r=ara |
| By: | Imen Zgueb Rejichi; Chaker Aloui; Duc Khuong Nguyen |
| Date: | 2016–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-78&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Arouri; Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz; Frédéric Teulon |
| Date: | 2016–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-57&r=ara |
| By: | S. Burcu AVCI (Ozyegin University School of Business Administration, Ozyegin University Cekmekoy Kampusu, Istanbul, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of the roles and performances of the major public enterprises (MPEs) from the energy, transportation, communication and construction sectors in Turkey between 2005 and 2013. The recent governmental policy towards the PEs presents differences based on sectors. The state is intentionally quitting agriculture, service and non-strategic manufacturing businesses, passing production to private sector. On the other hand, energy, transportation, communication and construction sectors are of great importance to the state: MPEs in these sectors are growing and among the biggest corporations in Turkey. This paper analyzes all PEs in these critical sectors, especially pays more attention to energy sector PEs due to sector’s rising importance over the economic development. The sectors to be quitted by the state are kept out of this study. There are common reasons assigning importance to energy, transportation, telecommunication, and energy sector MPEs. First, volatility in energy prices makes energy and transportation MPEs highly risky. Since energy sector is highly strategic and MPEs are exposed to exchange rate risk, there are problems in privatizing activities. Transportation and communication sectors are other important ones for the government, mostly because of strategic reasons: railways, airlines, coastal security services, broadcasting, governmental news agency, posting, satellite communications and cable TV systems, state TV and radio are operated by MPEs. The fraction of these MPEs contribution in GDP is increasing in the last years. Lastly, construction is a very special sector for Turkey: high growth rates are caught up by the growth in construction sector. Therefore, it is a strategic sector and government supports PEs in order to both expand the sector and also to provide lowbudget housing for lower income groups. |
| Keywords: | Public enterprises, energy, transportation, telecommunication, construction, financial performance |
| JEL: | L32 L33 L38 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:1517&r=ara |
| By: | Ken Miyajima |
| Abstract: | Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant. |
| Keywords: | Oil;Saudi Arabia;Oil prices;Banks;Credit expansion;Non-performing loans;Balance sheets;Panel analysis;Vector autoregression;Macro-financial linkages, nonperforming loans, panel vector autoregression |
| Date: | 2016–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/22&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tunisia’s economy has been resilient throughout a protracted political transition and a difficult international economic environment. The country has been facing headwinds from security threats and social tensions, which are offsetting the benefits from the successful conclusion of the political transition, lower international oil prices, and a recovering Europe. The banking system remains fragile, with the system’s capital adequacy ratio below the minimum regulatory requirement. The medium-term prospects remain favorable, with growth projected to increase to 4.7 percent by 2020. |
| Keywords: | Tunisia;Middle East;security, monetary fund, exchange, budget, exchange rate |
| Date: | 2015–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/285&r=ara |
| By: | Emna Omri (RUDE - Research Unit in Development Economics - University of Sfax, Tunisia); Nouri Chtourou; Damien Bazin (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The massive increase in production and consumption of fossil fuels during the 20th century was accompanied by several problems in economic, social and environmental levels. Thus, the energy as it is produced, distributed and consumed currently does not meet the requirements of sustainable development. Hence it is necessary to use RE that do not emit GHG in order to move toward the sustainable development. Since mid-1980s, Tunisia has implemented its national strategy in the field of RE. To revive the market of solar water heating, the government decided to establish, in 2005, an ambitious program called PROSOL. With the help of case study (PROSOL project), the paper shows that the contribution of RE to the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development is significant. |
| Keywords: | Développement durable,énergies renouvelables,projet PROSOL |
| Date: | 2015–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01070616&r=ara |
| By: | Griffin,Peter; Laursen,Thomas Blatt; Robertson,James W. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- and long-run economic impact of Egypt's energy subsidy reform in July 2014 (without and without compensating transfers for the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution) and the decline in global energy prices, as well as the long-run impact of phasing out the energy subsidies over a 5 year period. The analysis uses a Computable General Equilibrium model with 56 productive sectors, including 11 energy subsectors. The short-run analysis employs a two-stage factor market adjustment, with wages first fixed and then flexible. The long-run analysis is run in a recursive dynamic mode, capturing the impact of improved productivity and increased investment resulting from more efficient allocation of resources and reduction in government deficits. In the short run, the 2014 reforms lead to slightly lower consumption while investment increases strongly and production shifts from highly subsidized energy-intensive sectors such as energy, water and sanitation, and transport to other sectors (notably construction). The impact on overall consumer prices is limited. In the longer run, real GDP growth increases by about one percentage point relative to the baseline before the 2014 reform. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Energy Production and Transportation,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Transport Economics Policy&Planning |
| Date: | 2016–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7571&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Iran has slowed down significantly since the fourth quarter of 2014/15 owing to sharp decline in global oil prices, tight corporate and bank balance sheets, and postponed consumption and investment decisions ahead of the expected lifting of economic sanctions. Twelve-month (point-to-point) inflation has declined to about 10 percent in recent months, largely reflecting lower food and beverage inflation, and the inflation rate is expected to remain close to 14 percent by year-end. Prospects for 2016/17 are brighter, owing to the prospective lifting of economic sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Oil prices;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Labor market reforms;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Staff Reports;Press releases;Iran, Islamic Republic of; |
| Date: | 2015–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/349&r=ara |
| By: | Hela Miniaoui; Anissa Chaibi |
| Date: | 2016–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-55&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that decline in oil prices has adversely affected Kuwait’s fiscal and current account balances and slowed growth in 2014–15. Real non-oil GDP growth is projected to slow in 2015 and 2016, and pick up to 4 percent in the medium term, supported by government investment in infrastructure and private investment. The fiscal and external positions are projected to deteriorate further in 2015 and 2016, and improve somewhat over the medium term as oil prices and production recover partially. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal consolidation;Government expenditures;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Labor market reforms;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Financial soundness indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Kuwait; |
| Date: | 2015–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/327&r=ara |
| By: | Soumaya Hergli; Frederic Teulon |
| Date: | 2016–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-98&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the Iraqi authorities’ request for a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The authorities have requested an SMP to establish a track record of policy credibility to pave the way to a possible IMF financing arrangement. Under the SMP, the authorities will implement fiscal consolidation that will contain public expenditure in line with available revenue and financing, and aim to reduce the non-oil primary deficit by US$20 billion or 12 percent of non-oil GDP between 2013 and 2016. Under the SMP, agreement has also been reached on measures to strengthen public financial management, anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism, and financial sector stability. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Iraq;exchange, oil prices, economic developments, balance of payments, monetary fund |
| Date: | 2016–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/11&r=ara |
| By: | Imen Khanchel El Mehdi |
| Date: | 2016–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-77&r=ara |