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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Fatih Ozatay |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tob:wpaper:1306&r=ara |
| By: | M. Fatih Ekinci; Zubeyir Kilinc |
| Abstract: | [EN] The IMF introduced the EBA, as a successor to the CGER, to fulfill its exchange rate evaluation mandate. In this study, we provide a discussion and a set of critiques on the new methodology. Although all of the critiques are very critical to be addressed for a proper examination of the external balance dynamics of the economies, in this particular study, we focus on the translation process of a current account gap into a real exchange rate gap with a specific emphasis on the Turkish economy. The process is particularly important because the methodology implies that the estimated current account gap can solely be closed by exchange rate policies. Therefore, the implementation requires a tightly estimated set of trade elasticities with respect to the real exchange rate. However, the literature reports a wide range of estimates for the trade elasticities of the Turkish exports and imports. We first obtain a current account norm and calculate the current account gaps for Turkey over the recent period according to the External Sustainability approach. A sensitivity analysis on the trade elasticities reveals that the EBA might present a huge dispersion in the estimated real exchange rate gaps. We conclude that the IMF’s assessments on the real exchange rate based on the EBA should be taken very cautiously, especially during the high current account to GDP ratio times. [TR] IMF, kurlari degerlendirme gorevini yerine getirmek uzere CGER metodunun yerine EBA metodolojisini uygulamaya baslamistir. Bu calisma, yeni metodolojiyi tartisip bazi elestiriler siralamaktadir. Ulkelerin dis denge analizlerinin dogru bir sekilde yapilabilmesi için bu elestirilerin hepsinin çok kritik olmasina ragmen, Turkiye ekonomisine ozel vurgu yapilarak cari dengedeki acigin reel kur acigina donusturulmesi islemi uzerinde durulmaktadir. Bu islem, metodolojinin tahmin edilen cari dengedeki acigin sadece kur politikalari ile kapatilabilecegi ongorusunden dolayi ozel bir oneme sahiptir. Dolayisiyla bu surecte dis ticaretin kur esnekliklerinin cok iyi hesaplanmasi gerekmektedir. Ancak, bu konuda yapilmis calismalar Turkiye’nin ithalat ve ihracatinin kur esneklikleri icin cok genis bir aralik vermektedir. Oncelikle Surdurulebilir Dis Denge yaklasimi kullanilarak Turkiye icin norm cari denge tahmini yapilmakta ve bu tahmin dogrultusunda yakin donem icin cari dengedeki acik hesaplanmaktadir. Yapilan ticaret esnekliklerine duyarlilik analizi ise EBA yontemiyle tahmin edilen reel kur aciklarinda cok genis bir dagilim oldugunu ortaya cikarmaktadir. Bu nedenle, IMF’nin reel kur degerlendirmelerinin, ozellikle yuksek cari acik verilen donemlerde, cok dikkatli yorumlanmasi gerektigi ortaya cikmaktadir. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1326&r=ara |
| By: | Arif Oduncu; Ergun Ermisoglu; Tandogan Polat |
| Abstract: | [EN] The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has started to implement its new policy mix since late 2010. In this new approach expectations, credit growth and reel exchange rate are monitored closely as key indicators for financial stability on top of price stability. The effect of this new monetary policy framework on the volatility of credit growth is the main theme of this note. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to analyze the impact of new policy mix on the credit growth volatility. It is shown that there is a significant decrease in the volatility of credit growth after the introduction of new policy framework at late 2010. Therefore, it can be said that this new monetary policy framework contributes to financial stability in Turkey by lessening the credit growth volatility. [TR] Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi 2010 yilinin sonlarindan itibaren yeni politika bilesimini uygulamaya basladi. Bu yeni yaklasimda beklentiler, kredi buyumesi ve reel efektif doviz kuru, fiyat istikrari ve finansal istikrar acisindan izlenen gostergeler olarak yer almaktadir. Bu yeni para politikasi cercevesinin kredi buyumesi oynakligi uzerindeki etkileri bu calismanin konusunu teskil etmektedir. Bildigimiz kadariyla, yeni politika bilesiminin kredi buyumesi oynakligi uzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak inceleyen herhangi bir calisma yoktur. Calismada, yeni para politikasi bilesiminin uygulanmaya baslandigi 2010 yilinin sonlarindan itibaren, kredi buyumesi oynakliginda belirgin bir dusus oldugu gosterilmistir. Bu yuzden, bu yeni para politikasi cercevesinin kredi buyumesi oynakligini dusurerek finansal istikrara katkida bulundugu soylenebilir. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1327&r=ara |
| By: | Kayam, Saime S.; Parkın, Mehmet Koray; Çeliktopuz, Merih |
| Abstract: | Public pension system costs constitute a significant part of government expenses. Private pension systems have been developed as an alternative and/or as a complement to the public systems. In Turkey, the Private Pension System was given a head start in 2003. Although the system aims to provide supplementary income to the public pensions at retirement, observations reveal that many participants prefer to exit the system before retirement. The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of participants, who are more likely to exit earlier than retirement using the total population of contract buyers since the start of the system until 2011. The data is obtained from the Pension Monitor Center, and covers the customer and contract characteristics of more than 75% of all lapse types in the period. Impact of demographic factors and contract features are examined using the logit model. We divide the sample into different groups of customers according to their monthly contributions to the system. The results of econometric analysis reveal evidence of a significant relationship between exit decision and features such as education level,occupation, total accumulated savings, geographical regions, pension sales channel and payment instruments. Staying long enough in the system increases participants’continuity. Our elaborations also provide some tips for pension companies to ensure longevity and retirement of customers. |
| Keywords: | private pension system, exit decision, logit model, Turkey |
| JEL: | G23 J26 J32 |
| Date: | 2013–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50933&r=ara |
| By: | Hande Kucuk; Pinar Ozlu; Anil Talasli; Deren Unalmis; Canan Yuksel |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye’de para politikasi aktarim mekanizmasinda Borsa Istanbul Repo/Ters Repo Pazari’nda olusan gecelik faiz (BIST gecelik faizi) kritik onem tasimaktadir. Geleneksel enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulanan donemde BIST gecelik faizi politika faizini oldukca yakindan takip ederken, 2010 yilindan itibaren devreye giren yeni politika cercevesinde BIST gecelik faizi ve diger kisa vadeli faizler politika faizi disindaki diger politika araclarindan da etkilenmeye baslamistir. Yeni donemde, TCMB’nin doviz kuru ve kredi kanallarini ayri ayri etkileyebilmek amaciyla uyguladigi likidite politikalari ve genis faiz koridorunun etkisiyle BIST gecelik faizi ile TCMB ortalama fonlama faizi arasindaki fark (BIST faiz farki) genislemis ve daha dalgali hale gelmistir. Bu calismada gecelik piyasa faizi dinamiklerinin daha iyi anlasilmasi amaciyla BIST faiz farkinin belirleyicileri arastirilmakta ve likidite yonetimi ile faiz koridorunun soz konusu faiz farki uzerinde etkili oldugu gosterilmektedir. Ayrica, TCMB politikalariyla dogrudan veya dolayli yoldan iliskili diger bircok faktorun de bu faiz farki uzerinde etkili oldugu gosterilmektedir. [EN] The overnight rate observed in the BIST Repo/Reverse Repo Market (BIST O/N rate) plays a crucial role in the transmission of monetary policy in Turkey. The BIST O/N rate, which was tightly linked to the policy rate in the period of conventional inflation targeting, has started to be affected by other policy instruments following the adoption of the new monetary policy framework in 2010. In the new period, the spread between the BIST O/N rate and CBRT’s average funding rate (the BIST spread) has become wider and more volatile due to CBRT’s liquidity policies and the interest rate corridor, which have been actively used with a view to affect exchange rate and credit channels separately. In this study, we analyze the determinants of the BIST spread to shed light on the dynamics of the overnight interest rates in Turkey, and empirically document the importance of liquidity management and interest rate corridor for determining the spread. Our results show that the spread has also been influenced by various other factors which are directly or indirectly related to the recent liquidity policy of the CBRT. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1325&r=ara |