nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2012‒09‒22
twelve papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank
  1. Makroekonomik Gostergelerin Doviz Kurlari Uzerine Etkisi By Pinar Ozlu; Deren Unalmis
  2. Short Run Import Dynamics in Turkey By Altan Aldan; Ihsan Bozok; Mahmut Gunay
  3. Are Swap and Bond Markets Alternatives to Each Other in Turkey? By Murat Duran; Doruk Kucuksarac
  4. Beveridge Egrisi ve Eslesme Fonksiyonu : Turkiye Ornegi By Birol Kanik; Enes Sunel; Temel Taskin
  5. 2001 ve 2008 Krizleri Sonrasi Issizlik Orani Gelismeleri By Evren Ceritoglu; H. Burcu Gurcihan; Temel Taskin
  6. Testing the Lucas critique for the Turkish money demand function By Yıldırım, Metin; Korap, Levent
  7. Challenges Facing Tehran By Naghshineh-Pour, Amir
  8. Türkiye Ekonomisinde Kamu Maliye Politikalarý ve Büyüme Ýliþkisi Üzerine Bir Deðerlendirme By Ebru Voyvoda
  9. Türkiye’de Bölgesel Farklýlýklar ve Yatýrýmlarýn Seyri: Yoksul ve Zengin Bölgeler Arasýndaki Fark Azalmakta mý? By Uður Namýk Küçük; Sumru G. Altuð
  10. Ýmalat Sanayinde Yapýsal Deðiþim ve Üretkenlik: Türkiye, Akdeniz Bölgesi ve Mersin Ýli Karþýlaþtýrmasý By Metin Altýok; Ýsmail Tuncer
  11. Türkiye Ýmalat Sanayinde Toplam Faktör Verimliliði ve Uzun Dönem Büyüme Ýliþkileri By Sanlý Ateþ
  12. Türkiye Ekonomisinde Yapýsal Uyum Süreci ve Ýstikrar By Nalan Ölmezoðullarý
  1. By: Pinar Ozlu; Deren Unalmis
    Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada gecmise donuk olarak derlenen Reuters beklenti anketi verileri ve gercek zamanli veriler kullanilarak Turkiye’de makroekonomik degiskenlere iliskin surprizlerin doviz kurlari uzerindeki etkileri 5 Ocak 2004- 18 Temmuz 2012 donemi icin incelenmistir. Bulgular, Turk lirasinin degerinin cari acik ve para politikasi surprizlerine tepki verdigini gostermektedir. [EN] In this study, we use historical Reuters surveys and real-time data in order to investigate the effect of economic fundamentals on exchange rates in Turkey for the period : January 5, 2004- July 18, 2012. The empirical evidence suggests that current account and monetary policy surprises in Turkey have been effective on daily changes in the value of the Turkish lira.
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1221&r=ara
  2. By: Altan Aldan; Ihsan Bozok; Mahmut Gunay
    Abstract: We study the short-run dynamics of Turkish imports between 2003 and 2011 by applying Kalman filter to obtain time-varying parameters for income and exchange rate. In addition to total imports excluding energy, we use data based on broad economic activities in order to allow sectoral heterogeneity in income and exchange rate elasticities. Our results indicate that income is more important (compared to the exchange rate) in determining import growth in most of the sectors, though there is heterogeneity among sectoral responses. Moreover, we find that elasticities (especially for income) change over time, and the change is more prominent after the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, we find evidence of aggregation bias in income elasticity estimates, which increase in recent years.
    Keywords: Import demand, Kalman filter, aggregation bias
    JEL: C13 C51 F17
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1225&r=ara
  3. By: Murat Duran; Doruk Kucuksarac
    Abstract: Cross currency swaps are agreements to exchange interest payments and principals denominated in two different currencies and usually have one leg fixed and the other floating. The interest rate on the fixed leg is closely related to the yields on the securities of the same tenure and currency. In Turkey, cross currency swaps and treasury bonds have similar cash flow structures and risk profiles. Hence these markets are usually considered as alternatives to each other. In this context, using daily data for the period August 2008 – January 2012, this study investigates the level relationship between the cross currency swap rates and treasury bond yields of 1-month to 4-year tenures by the cointegration testing procedure suggested by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (PSS). Our empirical results indicate that, at shorter tenures, cross currency swap rates and treasury bond yields have a one-to-one long-run equilibrium relationship and hence the deviations from the equilibrium are quickly arbitraged away. On the other hand, the relationship becomes weaker as the tenure exceeds 6 months and completely disappears after 1 year. We also carry out some robustness checks and the results obtained from these analyses support our initial findings.
    Keywords: covered interest parity, limits to arbitrage, bond market, currency swap, cointegration
    JEL: G12 G14 E43
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1223&r=ara
  4. By: Birol Kanik; Enes Sunel; Temel Taskin
    Abstract: [TR] Bu notta emek piyasasi dinamikleri hakkinda onemli ipuclari veren Beveridge egrisi, Turkiye ekonomisi ozelinde incelenmistir. Kuramsal cercevenin ozetlenmesinin ardindan yapilan ampirik analizde, 2005 : A1-2012 : A3 için Beveridge egrisinin emek ekonomisi kuramlari ile ortusur sekilde acik isler ve issizlik arasinda negatif iliski onerdigi bulunmustur. Soz konusu donem kuresel finansal kriz etrafinda alt donemlere ayrildiginda, yine kuramsal yazin ile tutarli olarak, Beveridge egrisinin kriz sonrasi toparlanma surecinde saat yonunun tersi bir yonelimde oldugu gosterilmistir. “Kariyer.net” firmasi verileri ile yapilan olcut analiz ISKUR verileri ile tekrarlandiginda da isgucu piyasasinin dinamikleri acisindan benzer sonuclara varilmistir. Calismada ayrica Beveridge egrisinin temelini olusturan eslesme fonksiyonu “kariyer.net” ve ISKUR verileri için tahmin edilmis ve analiz sonucu uygulamali iktisadi yazinla uyumlu bulgulara ulasilmistir. [EN] This note studies the Turkish Beveridge curve, which reveals important clues about the labor market dynamics in Turkey. The empirical analysis, which follows a brief discussion of the theoretical background of the Beveridge curve, documents that the Beveridge curve for the 2005 : M1- 2012 : M3 period suggests a negative relationship between unemployment and vacancies. When the analysis period is divided into sub-groups around the recent global financial crisis, the Beveridge curve is found to follow a counter-clockwise pattern during the economic recovery. The theoretically consistent results of the benchmark analysis, which uses the data from the employment firm ‘kariyer.net’ are robust to using ISKUR data. Lastly, the matching function, from which the Beveridge curve is derived, is estimated and the estimation results are shown to resemble the findings in the empirical literature.
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1224&r=ara
  5. By: Evren Ceritoglu; H. Burcu Gurcihan; Temel Taskin
    Abstract: [TR] Turkiye’de issizlik oranlari 2001 ve 2008 krizlerinin etkisiyle kisa sure icinde hizli bir sekilde artmistir. Issizlik orani 2001 krizini takip eden donemde sinirli oranda azalirken, 2008 krizi sonrasinda hizla gerileyerek, gecmis donemlerdeki seviyesinin altina inmistir. Bu notta issizlik oranin bu egilimini belirleyen dinamikler (istihdam, isgucu ve isgucunun tarim-tarim disi dagilimi) 2001 krizi sonrasiyla da karsilastirilarak incelenmistir. Analiz sonucunda, donemsel olarak farkli egilimler gosteren issizlik orani üzerinde istihdamin yani sira isgucu hareketlerinin de kayda deger yansimalari oldugu gozlenmistir. Ayrica, soz konusu donemlerde istihdam artislarindaki farklilasmada istihdamin buyume esnekligindeki degisimin de etkili oldugu gorulmustur. [EN] Unemployment rate in Turkey increased sharply during the 2001 and 2008 crises. While the unemployment rate followed a relatively flat pattern after the 2001 crisis, it decreased rapidly in the aftermath of 2008 crisis and fell below its former levels. In this note, dynamics of this tendency in unemployment is analyzed in comparison with the post 2001 crisis period, by decomposing the impact coming from employment, labor force and its sectoral (agriculture/ non-agriculture) allocation. The results indicate that the contribution of labor force to the change in the trend of unemployment is significant as well as that of employment. We also find that the elasticity of employment with respect to output in the corresponding periods affected the growth rate of employment
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1223&r=ara
  6. By: Yıldırım, Metin; Korap, Levent
    Abstract: This paper aims to test the prevalence of the Lucas critique by use of an applied modelling approach. The Turkish narrow money demand is chosen for investigation purposes and an extensive statistical-based econometric application has been carried out to observe whether the model in question has been exposed to the content of such a critique. The results confirm the theory to explain the behavioral foundations of aggregate monetary economics approaches and reveal that no evidence can be found in favor of the non-rejection of the Lucas critique that leads us to infer that the modelling attempt can be considered by the researcher a feedback model which is able to encompass a whole class of expectation models.
    Keywords: Money Demand; Lucas Critique; Turkish Economy;
    JEL: C32 E61 E41
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41156&r=ara
  7. By: Naghshineh-Pour, Amir
    Abstract: There is no doubt that the Iranian leaders are feeling the heat on all fronts. On the nuclear front the negotiations have practically stagnated, which can be translated to no sanctions lifting and hence no relief for the severely ailing economy. On the Syrian front Tehran and Hezbollah of Lebanon are the only solo ideological defenders of the falling Assad regime and just recently commended their "axis of resistance" with Syria. Upon his fall, Iran will lose a very important regional stronghold. On the economic side Western sanctions have been very damaging. They seem to have worked more effectively than they were expected due to significant economic mismanagement of the government. On the internal affairs front the increasing differences between the Supreme Leader camp and the Ahmadinejad camp have prevented the regime to adopt a unified stance against the ongoing international pressures. The Supreme Leader has practically eliminated the Ahmadinejad team from being in control of sensitive affairs such security and international matters.
    Keywords: Iran; economy; current affairs
    JEL: F00 F50 F59 F51
    Date: 2012–09–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41355&r=ara
  8. By: Ebru Voyvoda (Middle East Technical University)
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/72&r=ara
  9. By: Uður Namýk Küçük (Roma University); Sumru G. Altuð (Koç University)
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/69&r=ara
  10. By: Metin Altýok (Mersin University); Ýsmail Tuncer (Mersin University)
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/71&r=ara
  11. By: Sanlý Ateþ (Çukurova University)
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/70&r=ara
  12. By: Nalan Ölmezoðullarý (Uludað University)
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/68&r=ara
This nep-ara issue is ©2012 by Quentin Wodon. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at http://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.
This page is being maintained by Thomas Krichel. It was last updated on 2023‒07‒08 at 14:11.