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on Arab World |
| By: | Badi H. Baltagi; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Timur Hulagu |
| Abstract: | This paper presents wage curves for formal and informal workers using a rich individual level data for Turkey over the period 2005-2009. The wage curve is an empirical regularity describing a negative relationship between regional unemployment rates and individuals' real wages. While this relationship has been well documented for a number of countries including Turkey, less attention has focused on how this relationship differs for informal versus formal employment. This is of utmost importance for less developed countries where informal employment plays a signifcant role in the economy. Using the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey observed over 26 NUTS-2 regions, we find that real hourly wages of informal workers in Turkey are more sensitive to variations in regional unemployment rates than wages of formal workers. This is true for all workers as well as for different gender and age groups. |
| Keywords: | Formal/Informal Employment, Wage Curve, Regional Labor Markets |
| JEL: | C26 J30 J60 O17 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1216&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University); Nil Demet Güngör (Atýlým University) |
| Abstract: | Several recent empirical studies have examined the gender effects of education on economic growth or on steady-state level of output using the much exploited, familiar cross-country data in order to determine their quantitative importance and the direction of correlation. This paper undertakes a similar study of the gender effects of education using province level data for Turkey. The main findings indicate that female education positively and significantly affects the steady-state level of labor productivity, while the effect of male education is in general either positive or insignificant. Separate examination of the effect of educational gender gap was negative on output. The results are found to be robust to a number of sensitivity analyses, such as elimination of outlier observations, controls for simultaneity and measurement errors, controls for omitted variables by including regional dummy variables, steady-state versus growth equations and considering different samples. |
| Keywords: | Labor Productivity, Economic Development, Education, Gender, Turkey |
| JEL: | O11 O15 I21 J16 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/19&r=ara |
| By: | Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun; Mahmut Gunay; Bahar Sen-Dogan |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we make a detailed spectral analysis of the comovement of cycles of Turkish economy with cycles of euro area and the US. Relation between cycles may change with frequency, hence correlation of cycles at short, medium and long run may differ. Also, the correlation in different frequencies may change over time. Structural transformation observed in the Turkish economy after 2001 should also be taken into account in the analysis of business cycle synchronization. So, we use wavelet methodology that enables us to decompose cycles into different frequencies and also the method can deal with non-stationary data with structural change. We find that correlations of Turkish cycles with the cycles of euro area and the US increased after 2001. Moreover, although trade intensity of Turkish economy with euro area is much higher than with the US, in general, correlations of Turkish cycles with the US cycles are not lower than the euro cycles. Therefore, our results suggest that attention should not be limited to direct trade channel when analyzing effect of international developments on the Turkish economy. |
| Keywords: | Business Cycle, Wavelet, Structural Change |
| JEL: | E32 F40 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1215&r=ara |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University); Kan, Elif Oznur (Cankaya University) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the formal/informal sector earnings differentials in the Turkish labor market using detailed econometric methodologies and a novel panel data set drawn from the 2006-2009 Income and Living Conditions Survey (SILC). In particular, we test if there is evidence of traditional segmented labor markets theory which postulates that informal workers are typically subject to lower remuneration than similar workers in the formal sector. Estimation of standard Mincer earnings equations at the mean using OLS on a pooled sample of workers confirms the existence of an informal penalty, but also shows that almost half of this penalty can be explained by observable variables. Along wage/self-employment divide, our results are in line with the traditional theory that formal-salaried workers are paid significantly higher than their informal counterparts. Confirming the heterogeneity within informal employment, we find that self-employed are often subject to lower remuneration compared to those who are salaried. Moreover, using quantile regression estimations, we show that pay differentials are not uniform along the earnings distribution. More specifically, we find that informal penalty decreases with the earnings level, implying a heterogeneous informal sector with upper-tier jobs carrying a significant premium and lower-tier jobs being largely penalized. Finally, fixed effects estimation of the earnings gap depict that unobserved individual fixed effects when combined with controls for observable individual and employment characteristics explain the pay differentials between formal and informal employment entirely, thereby implying that formal/informal segmentation may not be a stylized fact of the Turkish labor market as previously thought. |
| Keywords: | formal/informal employment, labor market dynamics, panel data, Turkey, earnings gap |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J40 O17 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6556&r=ara |
| By: | Ýdil Göksel (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the main determinants of the participation decision of females in the labour force in Turkey. Turkey is a particularly important case as, unlike in many other countries, female labour force participation has shown a decreasing trend in the last 50 years. This paper aims to elaborate on the causes of this decrease. In addition to the main determinants found in previous literature, this paper adds a new variable that influences female labour force participation in Turkey: Conservatism and the role of traditional and social norms. An original proxy for conservatism is created by using a unique data set about perceptions. Four indices that might influence conservatism are formed: Tradition, social norms, men's decision power, and conservatism. The results are in accordance with the previous literature in emphasizing that urbanization, and education level play an important role in the participation decision of women. However, these factors are not sufficient to explain the decline in female labour force participation. This paper presents a new concept by showing that social norms, tradition and men's higher bargaining power play a negative role in the probability of women working in urban areas, while they do not have any significant influence in rural areas. Furthermore, this paper shows a new possible explanation for the link between urbanization and female labour force participation. Higher urbanization causes higher conservatism, which leads to lower female labour force participation. |
| Keywords: | female labour force participation, gender, conservatism |
| JEL: | J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:izm:wpaper:1205&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University); Elif Oznur Kan (Cankaya Universityy) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the formal/informal sector earnings differentials in the Turkish labor market using detailed econometric ethodologies and a novel panel data set drawn from the 2006-2009 Income and Living Conditions Survey (SILC). In particular, we test if there is evidence of traditional segmented labor markets theory which postulates that informal workers are typically subject to lower remuneration than similar workers in the formal sector. Estimation of standard Mincer earnings equations at the mean using OLS on a pooled sample of workers confirms the existence of an informal penalty, but also shows that almost half of this penalty can be explained by observable variables. Along wage/self-employment divide, our results are in line with the traditional theory that formal-salaried workers are paid significantly higher than their informal counterparts. Confirming the heterogeneity within informal employment, we find that self-employed are often subject to lower remuneration compared to those who are salaried. Moreover, using quantile regression estimations, we show that pay differentials are not uniform along the earnings distribution. More specifically, we find that informal penalty decreases with the earnings level, implying a heterogeneous informal sector with upper-tier jobs carrying a significant premium and lower-tier jobs being largely penalized. Finally, fixed effects estimation of the earnings gap depict that unobserved individual fixed effects when combined with controls for observable individual and employment characteristics explain the pay differentials between formal and informal employment entirely, thereby implying that formal/informal segmentation may not be a stylized fact of the Turkish labor market as previously thought. |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1210&r=ara |
| By: | Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen / Germany); Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen / Germany); Florian Johannsen (Georg-August-Universität göttingen / Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the link between foreign aid and exports between the two shores of the Mediterranean. The main hypothesis is that the Euro-Mediterranean Process should promote not only trade but also stronger links between the European Union (EU) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Hence, we expect development aid to have a positive impact on exports, which could also intensify the aid-trade relationship. In particular, we expect to find higher trade volumes in both directions after the process started in 1995 and intensified in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when several bilateral free trade agreements were signed. A gravity model augmented with bilateral and multilateral aid and trade regime variables is estimated for exports and imports from recipient countries to donor countries for the period 1988 to 2007 using advanced panel data techniques. Our method addresses the endogeneity bias of the trade regime/economic integration agreement (EIA) variable, assuming that decisions to form or enlarge EIAs are slow-moving relative to trade flows. |
| Keywords: | International Trade; Foreign Aid; Euro-mediterranean Process |
| JEL: | F10 F35 |
| Date: | 2012–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:iaidps:218&r=ara |
| By: | Altan Aldan; Olcay Yucel Culha |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bolgelere yapilan ihracatin sektorel yapisi, gerek bolgeler arasinda gerekse ayni bolge icinde zaman icinde ciddi degisiklikler gostermektedir. Ayrica, sektorel ihracat fiyatlarinin hareketleri, genel ihracat fiyatlarindaki hareketlerden farklilasabilmektedir. Dolayisiyla, bu notta sektorel fiyat hareketlerindeki ve bolgeler arasinda ihracatin sektorel kompozisyonundaki farkliliklar dikkate alinarak bolgesel reel ihracat verileri hesaplanmistir. Sektorel kompozisyon ve fiyat farkliliklari dikkate alinmadiginda Avrupa Birligi ulkelerine yapilan reel ihracatin daha dusuk, belli donemlerde AB disindaki Avrupa ve Orta Dogu ulkelerine yapilan ihracatin daha dalgali olarak degerlendirilebildigi gorulmustur. Avrupa Birligi ulkelerine yapilan ihracatin 2011 yilinin sonlarindaki finansal krizden çok fazla etkilenmedigi, son donemlerdeki politik istikrarsizliga karsin, Orta Dogu ulkelerine yapilan ihracatin artis egilimine devam ettigi tespit edilmistir. Kuzey Afrika ulkelerinde yasanan politik gelismeler ozellikle 2011 yilinda reel ihracati olumsuz etkilerken, son donemde bolgeye yapilan ihracatin cok hizli bir sekilde toparlandigi gorulmustur. 2012 yilinin ilk aylarina iliskin egilim analizleri, Avrupa Birligi ve Diger Asya ulkelerindeki zayif seyrin ihracattaki olumsuz etkisinin, Kuzey Afrika ve Kuzey Amerika basta olmak uzere diger bolgelere yapilan ihracattaki artisla buyuk olcude telafi edildigini gostermektedir. [EN] Sectoral composition of exports to regions might be quite different between regions and within regions over time. In addition, developments in export prices in different sectors can be quite different than total export prices. Hence, in this note regional real exports are calculated considering the differences in sectoral export prices and sectoral composition of exports to different regions. When sectoral composition and price differences are not taken into account, real export to European Union countries appears to be less and in some periods, export to non-EU European countries and to Middle East seem to be more volatile. It is found in this study that, export to European Union countries was not largely affected from the financial crisis at the end of 2011 and export to Middle East countries kept its increasing trend in spite of the recent political instability. It is observed that political developments in the North African countries have negatively affected real export especially in 2011, while export to this region has recovered very rapidly in the recent period. Tendency analyses regarding the first months of 2012 reveal that the negative repercussions of weak economic performance in European Union and other Asian countries on exports have been largely compensated by the increase in exports to other regions, especially to North Africa and North America. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1212&r=ara |
| By: | Jellal, Mohamed; Bouzahzah, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | The purpose of preliminary is to present a broad agenda of theoretical and empirical modeling about the fundamental links between the quality of governance, financial development and economic development. The main theoretical predictions and evidence are of a large importance in terms of economic policy for Morocco , a country in transition. |
| Keywords: | Morocco; Governance; Finance; Investment;Diaspora ; Growth |
| JEL: | D73 G2 F2 O16 F43 F24 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38844&r=ara |
| By: | O'Sullivan, Meghan L. |
| Abstract: | Iraq’s ability to reach its energy potential should be of broad regional and international concern. Iraq could be poised for a dramatic transformation, one in which it finally escapes the political and technical constraints that have kept it producing less than 4 percent of the world’s oil, despite having the third-largest conventional oil reserves in the world. Should Iraq meet its ambitions to bring nearly 10 million more barrels of oil on line by 2017, it would constitute the largest ever capacity increase in the history of the oil industry. Should Iraq, more probably, bring only half this capacity to market, it would still represent a massive achievement. Translating Iraq’s energy promise into reality is in the shared interest of Iraq, the United States, Japan, and the international community more broadly. At the highest level, the health of Iraq’s energy sector—currently the source of more than 90 percent of revenues accrued by the state—is a major determinant in setting Iraq’s overall trajectory. A booming energy economy is not a guarantee of a prosperous, democratic, and stable Iraq; it could also be the hallmark of an Iraq that has returned to authoritarianism or even tyranny. But it is difficult to imagine a prosperous, democratic, and stable Iraq that does not claim a thriving energy industry among its assets. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:hksfac:5116451&r=ara |
| By: | Raboy, David G.; Basher, Syed Abul; Hossain, Ishrat; Kaitibie, Simeon |
| Abstract: | Import-dependent arid Arab micro states such as those in the Persian Gulf are particularly vulnerable to food-security risk. Among the many remedial policy suggestions is some initiation or increase in domestic production to insulate these countries from supply disruption, import price volatility and high import prices. This paper does not address the efficacy of domestic production but notes that such production will require government intervention in the form of production subsidies to mitigate market risk. The narrow focus of this paper is to provide a conceptual model of subsidies that avoids many previous problems in established subsidy systems. The paper describes a subsidy model that makes the most use of market signals, avoids perverse incentives, and provides a structure to encourage efficiency, quality enhancement and product differentiation in agricultural products. The system is designed to be WTO compliant. The model has two components: a calculation of the true economic cost of a unit of an agricultural product and a deficit payment that is calculated to bridge the gap between true economic cost and market remuneration. The structure of the deficit payment is crucial to the establishment of a beneficial incentive system. The paper provides a mathematical rendering of the model, analysis of the associated incentive structure and a numerical example for a hypothetical Arab micro state. |
| Keywords: | Production subsidies; Arab micro states; Cost of capital; Economic efficiency |
| JEL: | L11 H21 N55 H25 D24 |
| Date: | 2012–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38854&r=ara |
| By: | Mahir Binici; Bulent Koksal |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, Turk bankacilik sisteminde kaldirac ile aktif buyumesi arasindaki iliski incelenmis, bu iki degisken arasinda pozitif ve anlamli bir iliski saptanmistir. Bu sonuc bankacilik sisteminin buyume gosterdigi donemlerde kaldirac oraninin arttigini, dolayisiyla kaldiracin dongusel oldugunu gostermektedir. Ayrica, islev bakimindan banka gruplari arasinda da farkliliklar bulunmustur. Kaldiracin dongusel olmasi banka bilancolarinin genisleme ve daralmalarinin kredi çevrimlerini hizlandirdigi sonucunu vermekte, dolayisiyla kaldirac ve is cevrimleri iliskisini de ortaya koymaktadir. Bu anlamda, dongusellik karsiti gelistirilecek makro riskleri azaltici onlemler sepetinde kaldirac orani da dikkate alinarak politika gelistirilmesinde fayda gorulmektedir [EN] This study examines the relation between leverage and asset growth in the Turkish banking sector, and finds that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between these two variables. This result indicates that the leverage ratio increases when there is positive asset growth, hence the leverage is procyclical. In addition, this relationship differs according to the business models of the banks. Procyclicality of the leverage indicates that the expansion and contraction of the bank balance sheets accelerates the credit cycles implying that bank leverage and business cycles are related. In this sense, it is useful to include the leverage ratio in the counter-cyclical macroprudential policy toolkit. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1211&r=ara |
| By: | Abdulkader Cassim Mahomedy |
| Abstract: | The last few decades have seen a phenomenal growth of the emerging discipline of Islamic Economics and Finance. In this paper I trace the origins and birth of this nascent science examining the various factors that gave impetus to its emergence and development. I contrast the different characterisations of the discipline as it has developed within the broader socio-political context and the reasons thereof. Despite the concerted efforts of the proponents of Islamic economics to shape for their discipline a distinctive paradigm they have had little success in doing so beyond arguing that it is underpinned by a strong moral ethic. By and large its epistemological roots have remained firmly within the framework of Rationalism and methodological individualism and consequently it has not been able to shed itself of its neoclassical moorings, the very paradigm it originally set out to replace. I illustrate several of the contradictions apparent in the discipline as hitherto enunciated and I critically analyse the reasons for some of these shortcomings. Finally, I conclude by arguing that if Islamic economics is to fulfil its raison d'être its proponents must resolve its theoretical and practical difficulties by clearly expounding on its weltanschauung and develop its content and form appropriate to this worldview |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:283&r=ara |
| By: | Jellal, Mohamed; Bouzahzah, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a model of reflection on the following fact: the Moroccan economy is not competitive and technological gap is wide between local industries and foreign firms. This observation leads us to organize this debate by offering a rigorous theoretical framework to better understand the underlying incentives to upgrade the actual Moroccan firms to reduce their technological gap. Further, it is shown how the state can establish a system of tax subsidy that can naturally induce firms to invest more in industrial modernization and potentially achieve a complete technological convergence. |
| Keywords: | Morocco; Technology; Catching up; Development |
| JEL: | O1 O14 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38958&r=ara |
| By: | Jellal, Mohamed; Bouzahzah, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | We present an endogenous growth model with technological externalities emitted the presence of the foreign direct investments. We showed that the net positive impact on the growth of these investments may be if and only if the host country such as Morocco has reached a minimal level of human capital for the absorption and assimilation of advanced technologies. Our current work focuses on the empirical validity of these results for Morocco. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investments; Externalities; Human capital; Growth |
| JEL: | F23 O43 F21 J24 F43 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38883&r=ara |
| By: | Aliu, Armando |
| Abstract: | This study investigates migration flows from Western Balkans and North African countries to the high-income countries of the EU. Migration and asylum issues were analysed with taking into account empirical, analytical and political comparisons of Western Balkans and North African countries from the triple win solution point of view. The research attempts to emphasize Western Balkans migration experience in order to respond how to manage and/or control chaotic migration with respect to North African countries. In addition, the EU enlargement and neighbourhood policies have significant effects on EU migration dynamics of demographic change (i.e. ageing population) and convergence/divergence of EU member states’ migration priorities. In this context, the role of the triangle (hybridity) – state, private and civil society in migration research ought to be argued to verify whether a controlling migration by an ideal hybrid structure and decentralisation will be more effective and accurate or not? The research presents dialectics of triple win approach and hybrid model (i.e. home country-state, host country-private, and civil society-migrants) with using governance models. The main argument was tested methodologically through using case study research, grounded theory, constructivist and normative approaches. |
| Keywords: | Hybrid Model; Controlling Migration; Social Transformation; Western Balkans; North Africa; Decentralisation |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R5 R23 A14 F24 |
| Date: | 2012–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38931&r=ara |