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on Arab World |
| By: | Sumru Altug (Koç University and CEPR); Erhan Uluceviz (Istanbul Bilgi University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices that reflect expectational factors or interest rates that capture the costs of borrowing for the Turkish economy tend to have the greatest predictive power for future real activity and inflation. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining real activity and inflation in a period of disinflation and normalization for the Turkish economy. |
| Keywords: | Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey |
| JEL: | E1 E32 E37 E58 F43 O52 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1134&r=ara |
| By: | Serkan Degirmenci; Zeynep Yilmaz; Gulcin Elif Yucel |
| Abstract: | Standard trade theory relies on the assumption of long-run full-employment, thus implying that although trade can affect wage rates and change the sectoral distribution of employment, it has no effect on the overall level of employment. In the empirical literature, it is a controversial debate that trade openness is good for employment in the long-run. If so, the further question is about the poorer regions in the developing countries which are fully open to trade. Turkey is one of these countries experienced trade liberalization three decades ago. Although its regions’ connection to markets is effective due to limited lack of access to key inputs and low transport costs, their shares in total trade and labor market outcomes strikingly vary depending on the density of local economic activities. While trade volumes and employment creation capacities of some regions are quite high, relevant indicators for some others are disappointing. The aim of this paper is to explore the relation between regional trade volumes and major labor market indicators. To this end, empirical analyses are designed to test the hypothesis that more regional trade volume leads to more employment opportunities and stimulates the job creation capacities of local labor markets. The data sets used in the analyses are from Turkish Statistical Institute, one being trade statistics by province which consists of export and import volume data for 81 provinces. The other set contains individual-based micro data from Household Labor Force Survey and both of these sets are at NUTS level 2, analyzing Turkey with 26 statistical regions. Time-interval for the analyses is from the year 2004 to 2008. Since the nature of labor market data set is cross-sectional and the dependent variable created is a dummy, the methodology used in the study is based on the probit regression. The preliminary results of the paper shows that higher the trade volumes of regions generally improve the indicators of local labor markets in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1371&r=ara |
| By: | Burge Elvan Erginli; Tuzin Baycan |
| Abstract: | Urban spaces are dynamic entities and to understand the socio-spatial processes of these entities is hard to analyze and evaluate. Residential mobility is one of the most important socio-spatial dynamics proceeding in an urban space through which socio-economic changes are produced consistently. This study aims to figure out the intra-metropolitan mobility in Marmara Region and to find out the interaction between the districts of Istanbul and the other districts in Marmara Region. Residential mobility of the individuals within Marmara Region has been analyzed and evaluated in order to map out the interaction between the districts of Istanbul and the other districts of Marmara Region. All quantitative data of the study is derived from the census of 1990 and 2000. Turkish Statistical Institute's (TURKSTAT) both censuses of 1990 and 2000 contain 5% sample of all population in Turkey. Two different methods have been consecutively used for the analysis of the data. First, Lebart's Procedure based on Combined Use of Cluster Analysis has been used to summarize and depict the qualitative contrast invisible to the naked eye. Second, Correspondence Analysis -a variant of factor analysis devised for reducing large data sets- has been deployed. By clustering the origin and destination units according to their distinctive and similar arrival and departure profiles, a chaotic picture of a huge original interaction matrix of 1985-1990 and 1995-2000 mobility flows can be perceptible. The results of the empirical study show that the mobility patterns in both periods are very similar to each other. From the south-west, people significantly moved to the south-west, and from the districts of Bursa, people significantly moved to the districts of Bursa. The mobility patterns in the north-east of Marmara and Thracian districts are different in two periods. In the 1985-1990 period, these districts are placed with the districts of Istanbul as origin units. However, in the 1995-2000 period, the interaction between these districts decreased and they generate different groups according to their arrival profiles. Key words: Intra-metropolitan mobility, residential mobility, Marmara Region, Istanbul, interaction, correspondence analysis, Lebart's procedure, data reduction |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p125&r=ara |
| By: | Deniz Deniz |
| Abstract: | In urban areas, fear of crime constitutes as much a problem as crime itself. Fear of crime is often associated with fear for one’s personal safety, particularly, safety from violent crimes and physical or sexual harassment in public areas. The fear of crime and feelings of insecurity keeps people off the public places where crime or anti-social behaviour are likely to occur and also limits people’s behaviour to access to opportunities and facilities in their public environment. In other words, it creates a barrier to participation in the public life which reduces the liveability and sustainability of the city. It is obvious that, level of the fear of crime is unequally distributed considering the varied user profiles and places of cities. This paper is aimed to analyse how fear of crime is influenced by a variety of factors including actual crime rate, physical and social characteristics of the environment etc. with a specific case study from İzmir, Turkey in order to create safer and livable cities. Note: The alternative choice was to put this abstract under : ZW-SS 'Turkish cases in Contemporary issues/dimensions for regional development' |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1176&r=ara |
| By: | Mehmet Kucukmehmetoglu |
| Abstract: | Allocation of transboundary water resources involves not only the competing parties divided by geographic and administrative boundaries (regional, national and local boundaries) but also takes place among various sectors (agricultural, urban, and industrial etc.) and various time periods (monthly, seasonal, annual). This study uses the Inter-Temporal Euphrates and Tigris River Basin Model (ITETRBM), which is a linear programming model maximizing net economic benefit derived from energy generation, agricultural and urban uses after conveyance costs. While optimally allocating water resources, The ITETRBM enables to pursue various sensitivity analyses in order to measure the impacts of annual changes in the energy and water demand over the countries (Turkey, Syria, Iraq) and sectors (agriculture, urban) in the Euphrates and Tigris River Basin (ETRB). The results present that i) energy and agriculture are two different sectors potentially compete each other, and ii) that competition opens a wide spectrum of water and energy policies in the basin among all countries. The spectrum of policies may cover the issues of a) time preferences of energy generation via hydroelectric power plants especially in the relatively cold upstream countries and b) utilization of alternative energy recourses and their preferential uses in upstream and downstream countries. While managing agriculture and energy sectors, an integrative approach potentially brings a superior allocation solution that provides higher welfare to the basin countries. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1183&r=ara |
| By: | Ercan Dulgeroglu; Sibel Bali Eryigit; Kadir Y. Eryigit; Filiz Gaygusuz |
| Abstract: | The Role of Physical, Human and Social Capital in Regional Financial Development Differences: An Analysis of Turkish Provinces Ercan Dulgeroglu , Sibel Bali Eryigit , Kadir Y. Eryigit and Filiz Gaygusuz Abstract With the undeniable importance of the financial markets in the economy, the factors stimulating financial development have started to be researched, particularly in recent times in a more intensive way. Starting from this point, the driving force of this study is both to contribute to international literature in this field and to fill a gap in the literature related to Turkey. The main purpose of this study is to explain the causes of regional financial development differences on the basis of capital accumulation. In order to answer the question ‘What is the effect and degree of importance of physical, human and social capital on the differences in regional financial development?’, in this study some indexes for financial development and each type of capital accumulation will be calculated using kernel principle components analysis and depending on the annual data of 81 provinces covering the period 2005 – 2009. As an index, the capital measurements can be seen in a comprehensive form allowing for more accurate measurement and evaluation of both the capital accumulation and financial development. By using the calculated indexes, then, financial development differences are evaluated with spatial panel data methods developed by Elhorst (2003). In this context, to our knowledge, this study is the first to take into account the effects of each type of capital on financial development in a model simultaneously. Keywords: Financial development, physical capital, human capital, social capital, spatial panel data analysis, |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1539&r=ara |
| By: | Sinan LEVEND; Rahmi ERDEM |
| Abstract: | In Turkey, The law of Institutional Strategic Planning (ISP) issued in order to compliance with European Union is unfortunately insufficient recovering spatial-oriented strategic planning (SSP) decisions. There is not a fundamental Spatial Strategic Planning model based on strategic spatial planning and an integrated structure that can be coordinated with both the strategic plans prepared by municipalities and strategic plans prepared by the government. Strategic Spatial Planning (SSP) process that sub-units have to correspond is not clearly defined although the Public Strategic Plan is mandatory by the legal regulation. İstanbul as a metropolis has got a lot of urbanization problems. Its operational planning boundaries surpasess its provincial boundaries. It exposes to a high level of risk because of earthquake, and its natural and cultural values are under threat because of rapid urbanization. The need for a planning organization that is taken as a whole up to the scale of urban design, transparent, comprehensive participated, cooperative and continuous is the major undisputed fact. This paper aims to evaluate SSP approach in Turkey in the case of İstanbul. For this purpose, firstly a literature review is conducted to define Strategical Planning. Eventually, in Istanbul Institutional Strategical Planning and Environment Arrangement Planing (100000 scale) are analyized and these plans are evaluated in terms of adequacy of strategical planning approach. Key Words: strategic, strategical spatial planning, İstanbul |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p481&r=ara |
| By: | Serkan Degirmenci |
| Abstract: | Many cross-country studies acknowledge the indispensable role of institutions in promoting economic growth and in sustaining economic development. So, their emphases have shifted to determine the most influential institution(s) in order to be specific. While these papers are widespread in the recent literature, the role of institutions within-country level has not been yet discussed in detail. Although the formal institutional structures of many nation-state countries apply to their all regions, results may differ depending upon various conditions. Considering these differentiated outcomes, this study aims to discuss the roles and functions of institutions in regional economic growth and development. To that end, first objective of this paper is to provide an introductory background by surveying and systematically documenting the evidences on the impact of institutions on regional growth and development outcomes from both the theoretical and empirical studies within a voluminous literature. Second objective is to elaborate this survey by classifying these studies with respect to their different conceptions about “institutions†and to their methodological approaches adopted. By doing that, this paper try to propose an analytical framework that identifies the channels of influence between institutions and economic performance outcomes. As the main concern of that study, third objective is to discuss whether institutions really matter for regional economic growth and development and, if so, how can institutions be included in the regional growth and development policies. Turkey is a convenient example for this discussion. Although its fundamental written institutions have a countrywide validity, their density and quality varies among regions. So, lastly, it is planned to be done an empirical exercise to reveal the linkages between prominent characteristics of these regional institutions and economic performances of regions for the case of Turkey. To sum up, the novelty of this paper is to provide an extensive but a systematic survey of many studies in related literature and to contribute in part to the empirics of the relationship between institutions and regional economic growth and development. Finally, it is expected to obtain a sound understanding about the institutional approach both in economic growth and economic development spheres within the regional context. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1180&r=ara |
| By: | Serkan Degirmenci |
| Abstract: | Many cross-country studies acknowledge the indispensable role of institutions in promoting economic growth and in sustaining economic development. So, their emphases have shifted to determine the most influential institution(s) in order to be specific. While these papers are widespread in the recent literature, the role of institutions within-country level has not been yet discussed in detail. Although the formal institutional structures of many nation-state countries apply to their all regions, results may differ depending upon various conditions. Considering these differentiated outcomes, this study aims to discuss the roles and functions of institutions in regional economic growth and development. To that end, first objective of this paper is to provide an introductory background by surveying and systematically documenting the evidences on the impact of institutions on regional growth and development outcomes from both the theoretical and empirical studies within a voluminous literature. Second objective is to elaborate this survey by classifying these studies with respect to their different conceptions about “institutions†and to their methodological approaches adopted. By doing that, this paper try to propose an analytical framework that identifies the channels of influence between institutions and economic performance outcomes. As the main concern of that study, third objective is to discuss whether institutions really matter for regional economic growth and development and, if so, how can institutions be included in the regional growth and development policies. Turkey is a convenient example for this discussion. Although its fundamental written institutions have a countrywide validity, their density and quality varies among regions. So, lastly, it is planned to be done an empirical exercise to reveal the linkages between prominent characteristics of these regional institutions and economic performances of regions for the case of Turkey. To sum up, the novelty of this paper is to provide an extensive but a systematic survey of many studies in related literature and to contribute in part to the empirics of the relationship between institutions and regional economic growth and development. Finally, it is expected to obtain a sound understanding about the institutional approach both in economic growth and economic development spheres within the regional context. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1374&r=ara |
| By: | Kutlu Demirer |
| Abstract: | Turkey has achieved great success in the tourism sector which started a greater than ever trend towards hotel investments. While, new investors are entering to the market, international brands are pursuing strategies to increase their existing supply. Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, besides being a world-famous tourist attraction, also draws substantial foreign investment which escalates both the demand and supply in the hotel market. In the light of previous researches conducted by Dökmeci and Balta (1999) this research focuses on the supply side and the spatial development of high-end hotels in Istanbul. By revisiting the works of von Thünen and Alonso, compares rings of urban location for hotels in Istanbul in terms of rent as overnight room rates. Location data are accumulated from Ministry of Tourism, local municipalities, chambers and unions. Overnight hotel rates were collected through internet booking sites, telephone inquiries and visits during October, November and December of 2010. As the polycentric development of the city has increased over the last decade and many functions have been decentralized or shifted, the analysis reveals valuable insight into urban tourism pattern. The results coincide with the concentric rings described by the previous researches although many new hotels were constructed, new sub-centers had formed and the importance of sub-centers has increased dramatically. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1030&r=ara |
| By: | Elif GUNDUZ; Rahmi ERDEM |
| Abstract: | Mardin represents a distinctive variety of natural and cultural resources. It is considered a major destination for seasonal tourism in Turkey. However, the city suffers from a serious shortage in urban infrastructure necessary for sustainable tourism development. A field survey is carried out to identify the type and range of such problems in relation to the existing infrastructure system. The survey also examines both the role of local community in tourism development and potential revenues. This study analyses the major aspects of such shortages and their effects on tourism sustainability. The paper attempts to present and discuss 1) the effect of inadequate urban infrastructure (roads, waste disposal, and water supply) on the site tourism potential and local standards of living that represent a challenge for sustainable cultural tourism; 2) the role of locals' involvement in tourism development (e.g. safeguarding heritage sites) and in poverty alleviation mechanisms in addition to identifying main heritage assets and related tourism opportunities. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p214&r=ara |
| By: | Zeynep Gamze Mert; Serhat Yilmaz; Ertan Mert |
| Abstract: | More recently Turkey has witnessed fast housing development and real estate sector growth because of the mortgage preparations. With this development, property location quality has been considered important for selecting and paying them. This study uses a data set of new single family housing units in Kocaeli University Campus Area. By using 4 location quality criteria, 27 single family housing units are graded at the neighborhood level. It is aimed to examine the applications of grading property at the neighborhood level based on property location quality by testing with three methods. Traditional method and fuzzy logic method were discussed in our antecedent studies. In this study, an easy used numerical calculation method; Neural Networks (NN), is introduced. Its grading performance is compared with the previous methods. NN method is found to be more accurate and realistic than traditional grading approach where its designing stage is more practical and faster than fuzzy logic approach. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p966&r=ara |
| By: | E.Umran Topcu |
| Abstract: | Abstract The neighborhood is prominent in contemporary urban studies. One reason for choosing neighborhood as a unit of action is that the neighborhood provides an efficient scale within which to measure any change in target population’s circumstances. Neighborhood here is defined as the bundle of spatially based attributes associated with clusters of residences. This bundle of attributes is multidimensional consisting of everything from topography and structures and demography to social interactions. For most people, residence and the context in which it exists, that is to say neighborhood, is the largest consumption item of a lifetime. How much an individual’s needs and aspirations are met by his neighborhood is a concern for researchers and planners. This study expresses a belief in the value of the concept of place as part of the neighborhood question. There are now many established ways of looking at the neighborhood, as place, as network, as image, as property and as administrative unit. These all have something to offer individually and deserve continuing attention to help counteract some of the deficiencies of our contemporary society. In this study respondents from two districts of Istanbul are asked for their subjective assessments of a set of domains associated with neighborhood satisfaction. The neighborhoods are chosen to be one traditional and one modern context. The results indicate significant differences among the residents of traditional and modern neighborhoods. Keywords: Neighborhood satisfaction, context, subjective assessment, traditional, modern |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1738&r=ara |