| Abstract: |
This paper presents a model of strategic interaction in which a third party
intervenes on behalf of a government in its conflict with insurgents. It
examines whether it is better for the intervenor to adopt an input-based
strategy (i.e., specify the total resources it will spend) or an outcome-based
strategy (i.e., specify the goal that it will achieve), and it shows that
outcome- based strategies are better for the intervenor than input-based ones
if and only if in the absence of intervention the insurgents are stronger than
the government. A system of benchmarks that are tied to the efforts of both
parties outperforms both input-based and outcome-based strategies. Lessons
from the theory are applied to U.S. strategy in Iraq. |