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on Agricultural Economics |
| By: | Cortney Cowley; Jacob Dice; Amaze Lusompa; David Rodziewicz; Francisco Scott |
| Abstract: | Food inflation has been excluded from core measures of inflation under the reasoning that it is a phenomenon of the supply side of the economy, driven by stochastic supply shocks to agricultural production that can affect the availability of farm products and increase food price volatility. However, the share of food costs related to agricultural production has fallen over the years as food value chains have become more complex and food prices tied more closely to value added downstream in the supply chain. We calculate the magnitude and extension of agricultural price passthroughs to food prices in the United States after 2008. We leverage the results of simple models of food pricing under imperfect competition along the supply chain to identify possible sources of bias in the passthrough calculations. We argue that we can identify U.S. agricultural price passthrough to U.S. food prices in a structural vector autoregressive setting using weather instruments that shift supply of farm production but are excluded from demand. Our results suggest that the passthrough of agricultural commodity prices to food prices is generally small and imprecisely estimated. Our results suggest that understanding food inflation can benefit from focusing on factors affecting downstream segments of the supply chain. |
| Keywords: | food inflation; passthrough rates; Agricultural prices |
| JEL: | Q10 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:99297 |
| By: | Farjana, Fariha; Nguyen, Thanh Tung; Qaim, Matin |
| Abstract: | Rice-aquaculture is promoted in many countries as a system that could simultaneously improve land and water productivity and household diets and nutrition. However, studies evaluating the effects of rice-aquaculture adoption on household diets do not yet exist. Here, we address this research gap, using data from a survey of 720 households in rural Bangladesh and different statistical techniques to control for possible selection bias. Contrary to expectations, our data suggest that adopting rice-aquaculture is associated with a decrease in household dietary quality, especially during the agricultural lean season. Households with young household heads, low education levels, and small landholdings are over-proportionally affected. We also analyze possible mechanisms of these unexpected negative diet effects. Households adopting rice-aquaculture spend much more time on farming, leaving less time for cooking, other domestic tasks, and certain off-farm activities. Adopters have lower crop and livestock production diversity, lower income from forest extraction activities, and higher debts than non-adopters. Our findings suggest that policies to promote the adoption of riceaquaculture should consider the broader effects on household livelihoods and provide sufficient support in order to avoid undesirable social outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:348394 |
| By: | Briones, Roehlano M.; Galang, Ivory Myka R. |
| Abstract: | The study explores the complex role of Philippine agriculture, both as a contributor to and a victim of climate change. The agriculture sector, responsible for 23 percent of the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, simultaneously faces severe losses from extreme climate events, which account for 60 percent of disaster-related damages. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on Philippine agriculture, evaluate mitigation and adaptation options, and formulate effective policy recommendations to foster resilience and sustainability. Scenarios are analyzed using a computable general equilibrium model to examine different pathways for adapting to and mitigating climate change impacts on agriculture, framed as (a) baseline, (b) intensified adaptation, and (c) combined adaptation and mitigation scenarios. The findings reveal that without enhanced interventions, Philippine agriculture is at risk of long-term supply and consumption reductions, leading to greater vulnerability. Meanwhile, the adoption of intensified adaptive and mitigation measures shows potential for improved resilience, increased productivity, and contributions to national climate commitments, at fairly modest intervention costs. The policy recommendations emphasize proactive climate action in agriculture that aims to enhance adaptation while contributing to mitigation efforts. Accurate GHG emissions estimates across sectors, especially agriculture, are crucial for targeted policies. Climate adaptation measures must be prioritized to ensure sustainable production amid growing climate risks, despite potential uneven outcomes across sub-sectors. Introducing cost-effective mitigation technologies, such as Alternate Wetting and Drying for rice and improved manure management, can reduce emissions without compromising productivity. The Philippines should integrate agriculture into its unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), focusing on technologies that offer sustainability while maintaining sectoral competitiveness and food security. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | climate change;Philippine agriculture;mitigation;adaptation;greenhouse gas emissions;GHG;nationally determined contributions;sustainable farming;resilience;climate-smart agriculture;food security;emission reduction;alternate wetting and drying;manure management;climate adaptation policy;agricultural sustainability;Department of Agriculture;climate change expenditure tagging;Climate Change Commission;Paris Agreement |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-36 |
| By: | Usman, Gana; Umar Isah, Yahaya; Muhammad, Umar Farouq |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. It used non-linear autoregressive distributed Lag model to show effect of insecurity proxied by terrorism index and crime rate on agricultural productivity proxied agriculture share of gross domestic product. Quarterly time series data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria, Institute for Economic and Peace and World Development Indicators for the period 2009Q1 to 2022Q4. Major findings revealed significant long and short run asymmetric impact of terrorism on agricultural productivity, as increase and decrease in terrorism and crime rate in Nigeria cause disproportionate change in agricultural productivity. The paper concludes that insecurity is a major determinant of agricultural productivity in Nigeria and recommends in favor of the need to re-invest in the security sector especially in rural communities of Nigeria where impact of insurgencies and other forms of terrorism are prevalent. This will help reduce the effect of terrorism on agricultural productivity in food producing communities, in addition to helping communities affected by terrorism to revive their interests in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural productivity, insecurity, terrorism, crime rate, NARDL |
| JEL: | Q0 Q01 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123113 |
| By: | Briones, Roehlano M.; Galang, Ivory Myka R.; Pastolero, Helena Luz C. |
| Abstract: | Modern conventional agriculture has relied heavily on inorganic fertilizers to achieve higher crop yields. However, concerns have arisen regarding its ecological and economic sustainability due to its impact on soil health, pollutants off-site, and recent surges in fertilizer prices. This paper reports on a rapid appraisal of the current state and potential expansion of organic fertilizer utilization and availability in the Philippines. The study finds that combining inorganic and organic-based fertilizers allows for a balanced realization of the advantages of each type. Government policies and programs promote both organic agriculture and balanced fertilization, although the budget is heavily skewed toward incentivizing farmer purchases of inorganic fertilizers. The policy implications of the study are: 1) Strengthen the National Organic Agriculture Program by (1) expanding the implementation of Participatory Guarantee Systems and b) aggressively rolling out organic labeling for packaged organic produce; (2) Review the regulatory system and competition oversight for organic fertilizers and biofertilizers; (3) Adopt a phased repurposing of fertilizer subsidies by gradually shifting the allocation from inorganic fertilizers to organic fertilizers, biofertilizers, and area-based research and development to promote adaptive balanced fertilization strategy (BFS), including soil mapping of all agricultural land in the country; (4) Beyond research and development, the Department of Agriculture must invest heavily in extension services to promote the widespread adoption of adaptive BFS; (5) Implement a value chain program for the development of the biofertilizer and organic fertilizer industry; (6) Anchor the value chain program on support for commercial networks of private corporations and capacitated farmer organizations, coordinated with the distribution of organic fertilizer and biofertilizer vouchers; and (7) Integrate the value chain development of organic fertilizers and biofertilizers with the development of the livestock, poultry, and agro-processing industries. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | sustainable agriculture;circular agriculture;biofertilizer;organic fertilizer;organic agriculture;integrated nutrient management |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-30 |
| By: | Arcia, Karen; Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von |
| Abstract: | Reactive nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution in Germany is mainly caused by production of cattle meat and milk, which is mostly consumed domestically. This pollution comes at a high external costs not yet addressed by current policies. We explore scenarios where reduced domestic cattle production aims to lower N and P pollution. We also analyze the potential effects of two policy measures, cattle buy-outs and input taxation, on reducing production. The research discusses the need to decrease cattle milk and meat consumption alongside cattle production reduction to ensure that negative environmental effects such as N and P pollution are not merely shifted to other production regions. Further research should examine the policies under consequential computational economic framework toward precise magnitude of effects. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Dairy Farming, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:348447 |
| By: | Faye, Amy; von Braun, Joachim |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the current uptake of small-scale irrigation (SSI1), its profitability, and the constraints to its broader adoption in the Sahel using literature and survey data from Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Senegal. Unlike most of the literature on irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), this analysis distinguishes unambiguously between farmer-led SSI (FSSI) and nonfarmer- led SSI (NFSSI) and analyzes labour profitability of SSI. Inverse probability weighing techniques are used to balance covariates between SSIs and non-SSIs and between FSSIs and non-FSSIs. The results show very low SSI adoption rates in the Sahel region. With the highest rates, Mali outperforms its neighbours, despite its political instability. However, FSSI is more common than NFSSI in Niger and Burkina Faso and less common in Mali and Senegal. Profitability analysis at the plot level shows that SSI is a more profitable land use activity compared to rainfed cropping. However, the two approaches complement each other as SSI mainly occurs during the dry season in the Sahel. On the other hand, FSSI is more profitable than NFSSI except in Mali where NFSSI has historically been a pathway to irrigation development through public irrigation schemes aiming for rice cultivation. Yet, FSSI generally has higher variable costs which could be reduced by promoting solar-powered technologies that could lead to irrigation expansion, especially for individual FSSI, provided that financial mechanisms are developed to enable the required initial investments. Results further show that for SSIs, irrigated high value crops such as vegetables are more profitable and require less land than the traditionally promoted rice in these Sahelian countries. Finally, the comparison of SSIs and non-SSIs and of FSSIs and NFSSIs shows that investments in irrigation development and adoption should account for the specificities of SSIs compared to non-irrigators and larger scale irrigators as well as the heterogeneity of SSIs that can be farmer-led or not. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:348393 |
| By: | Chatellier, Vincent |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) for the period 2010 to 2022, this article presents an analysis of the French farms income trends and their dispersion. The indicator used for this study is the family farm income per non-salaried agricultural work unit. First, the analysis is carried out for all production types combined. It highlights a high degree of inter-annual variability in the average income of French farmers, with a peak of €55, 800 in 2022 and a low point of €21, 300 in 2016 (for an average of €34, 100 per year over the 2010-2022 period). A typological grid distinguishing 64 boxes is then proposed to demonstrate the influence of three key indicators on the level of income, namely “labor productivity”, “productive efficiency” and “the farm's ability to meet its financial commitments”. Secondly, the analysis is carried out according to production types. While taking into account the differences within each one, this work shows that the average income generated by farms specializing in ruminant production is, in a long-term approach, clearly lower than that obtained in other speculations such as field crops, viticulture or pork production. Finally, by combining the three indicators mentioned above, a method can be used to divide dairy and beef farms into eight “economic performance” classes. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2024–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:348475 |
| By: | Michaël Guillossou |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how climate change and adaptation through irrigation have affected corn yield growth within the US Corn Belt since the 1960s. We combine corn yield and irrigation data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service with ERA5-Land gridded temperature data. We adopt an augmented long-difference framework to i) assess the impact of extreme temperature trends from 1960 to 2023 on corn yield growth in Corn Belt counties since the 1960s and ii) estimate the potential of irrigation to mitigate this impact. Our findings reveal significant upward trends in extreme degree-days (EDD) above 29◦C across more than half of Corn Belt counties. We highlight that the varying magnitudes of these trends, alongside differential adoption rates of irrigation between counties, have played a crucial role in explaining the disparities in long-term corn yield trends within the region. Specifically, we show that irrigation offsets about 80% of the adverse impact of EDD on corn yields. Based on a counterfactual analysis, we find that current corn yields are about 6.5% lower, on average, than they would be in a non-climate change scenario. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Yields, Irrigation, Corn Belt |
| JEL: | Q15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-4 |
| By: | Umar Isah, YAHAYA; Ojonugwa Anthony, BERNARD; Z.S., SAHEED; salihu, AYODEJI; Yakubu, ALFA |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the impact of trade tariff and non-tariff barriers on food security in the ECOWAS region. The paper relied on fixed and random effects approach to empirically capture the effects of tariff and non-tariff barriers alongside relevant trade-related macroeconomic variables on food security among ECOWAS member countries during 2010-2022. Major findings from the fixed effect model revealed that non-tariff barriers have significant negative impact on food security in the ECOWAS region. Further findings revealed that trade regulatory environment and food price inflation have significant positive impact on food security in the ECOWAS region. The paper concludes that regardless of its context, intention and deepening, non-tariff strategic trade policy reduce food security of ECOWAS member countries with a major implication that whether ECOWAS member countries pursue a policy of food self-reliance or food self-sufficiency, adherence to a common customs policy would help eliminate major delays in the movement of essential food items, agricultural labor and machinery across borders, hence, improving food security in the region. |
| Keywords: | Tariff barrier, non-tariff barrier, ECOWAS, food security, fixed effect |
| JEL: | F13 Q0 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123114 |
| By: | Huang, Kaixing; You, Yaxuan |
| Abstract: | Genetically modified (GM) crops are expected to reduce agricultural carbon emissions, which account for approximately 30\% of global carbon emissions, by reducing the use of high-emission production inputs. However, upon examining the gradual roll-out of GM crops across countries, we find that GM crops have increased total agricultural carbon emissions by 7.4% and increased the carbon-emission intensity of crops by 9.4%. A key reason is that GM crops have expanded cultivation into marginal lands, which require more fertilizer and energy inputs. While exporting GM crops to non-GM countries could reduce the global carbon-emission impact of GM crops, a large portion of GM crops is used for domestic livestock production, which further increases carbon emissions. Policies that restrict GM crops to the lands most suitable for them and encourage the export of GM crops could help mitigate the impact of GM crops on global carbon emissions. |
| Keywords: | Genetically modified crops, agricultural carbon emissions, agricultural technology, crop yield |
| JEL: | O13 O50 Q16 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122650 |
| By: | Müting, Luisa; Mkandawire, Petros Suzgo Kayovo; Mußhoff, Oliver |
| Abstract: | In the Sahel region, agroforestry potentially increases crop yields, alongside restoring and retaining soils. Nonetheless, little is known about how diverse agroforestry systems perform across actual agricultural systems of smallholders in the region. We therefore investigate how smallholders’ different agroforestry systems in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin relate to groundnut yields. We distinguish agroforestry systems by (a) tree quantity per hectare, (b) tree species diversity and (c) quantities per hectare of the most prevalent tree species in our data. Using data of 492 groundnut farmers, collected in the Groundnut Basin from December 2022 to January 2023, we estimate log-linearized Cobb-Douglas-production functions through ordinary least squares regression. 53 tree species were reported by 93.8% of smallholders. We identify Faidherbia albida, Cordyla pinnata, Adansonia digitata, Anogeissus leiocarpa, and Ziziphus mauritiana as most prevalent species. Our results indicate that groundnut yields initially increase with tree quantity and species diversity. However, at too many trees per hectare the competition between trees and crops for space and nutrients seems to outweigh the benefits. Faidherbia albida trees are beneficial for groundnut yield outcomes only at a higher number of these trees. For the species Cordyla pinnata and Anogeissus leiocarpa, additional trees initially lead to increases in groundnut yields. The tree species Ziziphus mauritiana and Adansonia digitata appear to have no association with groundnut yields. We find a remaining potential of increasing tree cover or tree species diversity and introducing or expanding certain tree species in established agroforestry systems to enhance synergies between land restoration and groundnut productivity. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:348252 |
| By: | Wolfgang Stojetz; Piero Ronzani; Tilman Brück; Jeanne Pinay; Marco d'Errico |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on the impacts of agricultural support programs in acute emergency settings, by studying resilience in mostly rural areas in the context of a multi-package intervention in conflict-affected Borno State, North-east Nigeria. We account for the challenging research environment in this insecure setting by carefully adapting our research design, thus generating empirical evidence on what works in areas previously considered off-limits to rigorous research designs. Combining a quasi-experimental design with unique panel survey data and fine-grained conflict event data, we find that resilience impacts are highly heterogeneous based on local conflict intensity during and after the implementation of the intervention. Our results suggest that even when local violence is high, programs can provide strong and much needed support for resilience, primarily by strengthening social safety nets and food security. |
| Keywords: | armed conflict, emergency, food security, resilience, social protection |
| JEL: | D74 I32 I38 O12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:419 |
| By: | Enrico Fornasiero (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | This research studies the role of the Non-Governmental Sector on household economic outcomes by analysing the impact of receiving support from Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) on children's food security and time-use in Ethiopia. I exploit the implementation timing of a restrictive NGO law to solve the potential endogeneity concerns by defining a two-stage model. I find evidence that receiving NGO support increases children's time spent on income-generating activities, reducing the number of hours dedicated to household chores. These effects are mainly due to children who either live in the poorest households, in rural communities, or in a family in which the primary occupation of the household head is agriculture. Notably, receiving support from an NGO increases the time children spend in education only for female-headed households. |
| Keywords: | Non-Governmental Organisation, Children, Food Security, Time Use, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | I25 I31 J13 J24 L31 O12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2024:18 |
| By: | Mohamadi, Navid (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Transchel, Sandra; Fransoo, Jan C. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:358dfa25-d5b7-4943-b913-79efe56cbb30 |
| By: | Hanif Ammazia; Yuko Nakano; Midori Matsushima |
| Abstract: | Microorganism-mediated degradation of water quality is a major public health concern in developing countries. Previous literature has shown an association between household water pollution and childhood diarrhoea; however, its effects on child growth and respiratory health have not been widely investigated. This study assessed the effects of household drinking water contaminated with Escherichia coli (E. coli) on child’s weight-for-height and weight-for-age-z-scores, acute respiratory infections (ARI), and diarrhoea incidence among five years children in Pakistan. We used district-level spatial information and the latest waves of unique Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) data containing information on ‘point-of-service delivery’(POS) and ‘point-of-consumption’ (POC) water quality, collected for the first time on a large scale in five regions of Pakistan. We employed an instrumental variable approach to address potential endogeneity issues in household drinking water quality, finding that POC drinking water contamination significantly affected children’s weight-for-height and weight-for-age z-scores and ARI, in addition to its effects on diarrhoea. The sub-sample analyses indicated that the effects of contaminated water were particularly significant in children aged 6 months and older and in children who did not receive vitamin A supplements. To protect the children from growth failure and contracting ARI and diarrhoea, household water quality should be improved. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2023-002 |
| By: | Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Barral, Mark Anthony A.; Andrada, Abigail E. |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the role of higher education institutions (HEIs) in the agribusiness innovation ecosystem in Central Visayas, Philippines, underlining their contributions, the challenges they face, and the opportunities available. Using a mixed-methods approach, the research reveals that HEIs serve as knowledge sharers and collaborators within the ecosystem. Their impact, however, is limited by inadequate funding and a lack of entrepreneurial engagement, among other factors. The agribusiness innovation ecosystem is perceived by stakeholders as a nascent yet growing industry, with potential for significant economic contributions. The study further identifies areas for improvement, such as policy enhancement, deeper collaboration and engagement, and supportive intellectual property frameworks. The paper recommends strengthening HEI involvement in agribusiness innovation to boost their role in driving regional economic growth and in addressing emerging issues like climate change and food security. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | agribusiness;agribusiness innovation ecosystem;capacity building;entrepreneurship;food security;higher education institutions;intellectual property;knowledge sharing;regional development;research and development;sustainable agriculture |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-25 |
| By: | Islem Saadaoui (TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the economic value of Aleppo pine forests, a unique and threatened ecosystem in the border region of central Tunisia. These forests play a vital role in supporting small rural communities, but face increasing pressures and restrictions on their use. This research aims to assign a monetary value to forest conservation, considering the region's specific socio-economic context. Strategies for empowering local residents as key actors in developing sustainable cross-border initiatives are further investigated. Employing the Contingent Valuation Method, a survey of 350 local residents and international users was conducted to assess their Willingness to Pay for forest conservation efforts. Logistic regression analysis revealed that sociodemographic factors, such as monthly income and preferred payment method, significantly influence both and the likelihood of participation. These findings highlight the feasibility and importance of reconciling economic development with ecological sustainability in this critical region. |
| Keywords: | Economic assessment Ecosystem service Regional planning Cross-border development initiative Contingent valuation method, Economic assessment, Ecosystem service, Regional planning, Cross-border development initiative, Contingent valuation method |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04849786 |
| By: | Margarita Gáfaro; César Mantilla |
| Abstract: | The design of mechanisms for sustainable irrigation water management requires a deep understanding of the value of water to local communities. We present results from a lab-in-the-field incentivized game that sheds light on irrigation water overvaluation patterns among small farmers in Colombia. In this game, two players divide a jointly endowed agricultural land plot, with some pieces having direct access to irrigation water. Although the induced cost of irrigation water in our game was one token, farmers paid between 2.1 and 3.5 times this amount. We generalize this result by presenting a general bargaining game that can be used to identify overvaluation in settings contexts where relevant use conflicts arise. **** RESUMEN: El diseño de mecanismos para la gestión sostenible del agua de riego requiere una comprensión profunda del valor del agua para las comunidades locales. En este trabajo presentamos los resultados de un juego incentivado de laboratorio en el campo que muestra patrones de sobrevaloración del agua de riego entre pequeños agricultores Colombia. En este juego dos participantes se dividen un terreno agrícola, heredado conjuntamente, en el que algunas parcelas tienen acceso directo al agua de riego. Aunque el costo inducido del agua en nuestro juego es de una ficha, los jugadores pagaron entre 2, 1 y 3, 5 veces esta cantidad. Proponemos un modelo de negociación que explica este resultado y que puede utilizarse para identificar sobrevaloración en entornos con conflictos de uso relevantes. |
| Keywords: | lab-in-the-field experiment, cooperative bargaining, irrigation water, non-cooperative bargaining, Nash bargaining, experimento de laboratorio en campo, negociación cooperativa, agua de riego, negociación no cooperativa, negociación de Nash |
| JEL: | C78 C90 Q51 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1293 |
| By: | Wolfgang Stojetz; Piero Ronzani; Tilman Brück; Jeanne Pinay; Marco d'Errico |
| Abstract: | Polycrises created by violent conflict and climate change are ubiquitous. Yet, the impacts of conflict and climatic shocks on human behavior and welfare have largely been studied in isolation. This paper studies the joint impact of conflict and climatic shocks on households’ social safety nets in fragile settings. Drawing on unique panel survey data from 1, 293 households in North-east Nigeria, we document that experiencing a violence shock increases the strength of households’ social safety nets (SSN) when they do not experience a simultaneous drought shock. Yet, experiencing a violence shock decreases SSN strength when they experience a drought shock in addition. This perilous interaction between violence and drought shocks is concentrated in poorer local environments. When the local level of economic resources is high, in relative terms, the positive impact of a violence shock on SSN is dominant. However, when the level of economic resources is low, the influence of droughts shocks rises substantially and experiencing both a drought and a violence shock diminishes social safety drastically. Our findings emphasize the need for and potential of concerted social protection programs that account for the compounding vulnerability from poverty, conflict and climatic change in fragile settings. |
| Keywords: | armed conflict, climate change, drought, polycrisis, social safety nets |
| JEL: | D71 D74 I32 O12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:420 |
| By: | Chrispin Kamuikeni; Hisahiro Naito |
| Abstract: | Applying a Panel Fixed Effect model to a large dataset of migration and local weather conditions in 16 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, this study estimates the impacts of long-term weather aberrations on within-country migration. To address potential omitted variable bias, this study accounts for weather conditions in alternative places of residence–an aspect which has been overlooked by previous studies. Results establish a causal link between climate change and migration, but this effect is observed primarily in a block of West SSA countries. In this region, climate-related relocation is driven by both long-term changes in weather (specifically rainfall and temperature) and temperature volatility. In this region, climate-related relocation is driven by both long term changes in weather (rainfall and temperature) and temperature volatility. Quantitatively, this study finds that over the last 30 years, an average annual rainfall decline of 120mm increased internal migration by 14 percentage points while a sustained average temperature increase of 0.5°C resulted in an 8 percentage point rise in internal relocation. However, temperature fluctuations are found to lowered the odds of out-migration by 22 percentage points. Additional findings reveal that increasing temperatures force climate migrants to travel to much farther destination areas. However, we do not find evidence that adverse rainfall outcomes increase relocation distance. Additionally, We establish that climate migrants tend to relocate from rural districts to urban centers. Finally, We obtain evidence that climate-related mobility involves relocation of a family units, as suggested by the significance of climate mobility of young children (less than 12 years old). Meanwhile, when the same specifications are applied on East SSA, we find weak evidence of climate-related mobility in this region. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2024-003 |
| By: | Wear, David N. (Resources for the Future); Warziniack, Travis; O’Dea, Claire; Coulston, John |
| Abstract: | Climate change reshapes natural resource systems and results in increased likelihood of wildfire, water scarcity, and heat stress, along with other adverse outcomes that define potential harm across a broad spectrum of locales in the United States. We evaluate 50-year, multiple-scenario projections of resource hazards and population change from the USDA Forest Service 2020 Resources Planning Act Assessment to identify areas of concern based on hazard exposure and social vulnerability criteria and to evaluate implications for climate adaptation and risk mitigation planning. We project how and where hazard exposure may change over the next 50 years and decompose these changes into the portion driven by climate changes and the portion driven by population changes—both of which prove consequential. Water shortage projections show little change in spatial distribution but strong growth in the intensity of anticipated droughts. Wildfire projections show a structural change in pattern, with emergent growth in wildfire extent in the southeastern United States coincident with higher population densities and social vulnerability. High heat areas expand toward the North and East from the Southwest. Projections also show substantial growth in areas affected by two or more hazards and highlight where hazards correspond with high exposure or high vulnerability. For all hazard categories and scenarios, at least 80 percent of the population exposed to high hazard is in either a high-vulnerability or high-exposure county. Our results highlight how management strategies would differ between those focused on mitigating the biophysical hazard alone and those that focus on mitigating exposure or vulnerability criteria. |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-21 |
| By: | Mehdi Guelmamen (University of Lorraine, University of Strasbourg, AgroParisTech, CNRS, INRAE, BETA.) |
| Abstract: | The provision of drinking water has become a central concern for public authorities due to climate change, prompting policymakers to reevaluate their approach to this semi-renewable resource. In this paper, we assess the effect of inter-municipal cooperation on performance. Using a comprehensive panel dataset comprising all French drinking water providers from 2008 to 2021, we show that organizational forms chosen by municipalities have an effect on prices of drinking water paid by consumers. More precisely, our empirical findings reveal a selection bias in the estimation of price equations and we show that consumer prices are significantly higher on average when municipalities decide to cooperate. Inter-municipal cooperation does not necessarily lead to better performance in the provision of drinking water. |
| Keywords: | intermunicipal cooperation, local government, public services, drinking water prices, selection bias |
| JEL: | H11 H77 L11 L95 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afd:wpaper:2410 |
| By: | Pratik Thakkar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Kausik Gangopadhyay (Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode) |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks associated with global climate change engender substantial damages, in the order of multi-billion dollars annually, to the Indian economy. Using data from 33 states during 1981--2022, we explore the effect of weather shock on India's economic growth, in the presence of interplay of temperature and precipitation levels. To avoid arbitrary assumptions of parametric estimation, we estimate the economic damages resulting from weather shocks using semi-parametric varying coefficient generalised additive models (VC-GAM). We select the optimal class of VC-GAM among 29 possible classes based on four relevant criteria. From the optimal class, out of 84 possible specifications, we determine the optimal damage specification using the out-of-sample and in-sample performance. We find that the contemporaneous year-on-year weather change and lagged year-on-year precipitation change have an impact on the per capita economic growth through total factor productivity channel, whereas only contemporaneous precipitation level have an impact on the per capita economic growth through labour productivity channel. We observe that the marginal effect of a contemporaneous weather change varies with the level of lagged precipitation level, whereas high lagged precipitation level combined with a low to moderate lagged temperature level exacerbates the detrimental impact of a positive lagged precipitation change on the per capita economic growth for India. One potential mechanism through which contemporaneous and lagged weather variables could have an impact on the per capita economic growth, is based on the impact of soil moisture quality. We have demonstrated our results to be considerably robust. |
| Keywords: | Weather, Damage function, Varying coefficient generalized additive models, Economic growth, India |
| JEL: | C14 O44 O53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2024-021 |
| By: | Mkandawire, Petros Suzgo Kayovo; Fiankor, Dela-Dem Doe; Brümmer, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | This article explores the effects of including environmental provisions (EPs) in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on climate change mitigation. It further examines whether the effects depend on the heterogeneity of the EPs. We exploit a panel dataset of the climate change performance index (CCPI) from 2006 to 2019 and the environmental performance index (EPI) from 2000 to 2020 for multiple countries. We combine these datasets with the TREND database that contains information on almost 300 different types of EPs in 775 PTAs. Empirically, we use an autoregressive panel data model with an exponential fractional regression framework and a two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. Potential endogeneity issues are addressed with suitable instrumentation and panel estimation techniques. Our results shows that the inclusion of EPs in PTAs significantly improves climate change mitigation. The effectiveness of these provisions, however, depends on their diversity. Key benefits include reduced greenhouse gas emissions, increased renewable energy use, and enhanced climate policies. Furthermore, PTAs with direct CPs yield greater improvements in climate change mitigation outcomes compared to those addressing environmental issues more generally or indirectly. Finally, we show that PTAs with climate change provisions are an effective tool for climate change mitigation, regardless of the development status of the signatories. However, the effects are more pronounced for North-South PTAs compared to North-North and South-South PTAs. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:348251 |
| By: | Koutchade, Obafémi Philippe; Carpentier, Alain; Féménia, Fabienne |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose an approach to allocate input uses among crops produced by farmers, based on panel data that includes input use aggregated at the farm-level. Our proposed approach simultaneously allows for (i) controlling for observed and unobserved farm heterogeneity, (ii) accounting for the potential dependence of input uses on acreage decisions, and (iii) ensuring consistent values of input use estimates. These are significant issues commonly faced in the estimation of input allocation equations. The approach is based on a model of input allocation derived from accounting identities, where unobserved input uses per crop are treated as time-varying random parameters. We estimate our model on a sample of French farms’ accounting data, by relying on an extension of the Stochastic Approximation of Expectation Maximization algorithm. Our results show good performance of our approach in accurately allocating input uses among crops, for the crops the most frequently produced in our data sample in particular. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:348476 |
| By: | Mulubrhan Amare; Lucia Carrillo; Katrina Kosec; Jordan Kyle; |
| Abstract: | Using original survey data from three states in rural, southwestern Nigeria, this study examines the relationship between conflict intensity at various distances and the empowerment and aspiration levels of women whose households are primarily engaged in farming. We analyze geo-coded data on violent clashes between ethnic groups that primarily herd livestock for their livelihood and those that primarily farm crops; these clashes are growing more frequent across West Africa with climate-induced land degradation, as herding populations are moving further south in search of grazing land. Our outcomes of interest include women’s economic and social aspirations, and women’s economic, social, and political behaviors that could impact their long-run empowerment. We find that exposure to higher conflict intensity is closely linked to adverse outcomes, including income loss, assault, and forced migration. Higher conflict intensity is also associated with lower women’s economic and social aspirations, though social aspirations are more affected by proximate conflicts, while economic aspirations are more affected by more distant conflicts. Women’s economic, social, and political activities also vary with conflict-affectedness. With more conflict nearby, women are more likely to own their own off-farm businesses and less likely to own an off-farm business in which they share ownership with their husband. With more exposure to distant conflicts, women devote less time to off-farm labor and more time to agricultural labor. Near conflict, women are less likely to be members of mutual aid groups and to contact government officials and more likely to engage local security groups for protection and to be members of political parties. These differences could have long-run implications for women’s empowerment. |
| Keywords: | aspirations, farmer-herder conflict, gender, nigeria, women’s empowerment |
| JEL: | D13 D71 D74 J16 Q12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:421 |
| By: | Peters, Ferdinand; Kempe, Andreas; Kübler, Daniel; Günter, Sven; Neumeier, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Madagascar's forests are known for their rich biodiversity, and they are home to numerous endemic plant and animal species. However, these ecosystems face significant threats from human activities, leading to deforestation and forest degradation. Effective conservation efforts must focus on both protecting the remaining natural forests and restoring those already destroyed. To address these challenges, the Thünen Institute of Forestry, in collaboration with the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), conducted the project "Analysis of forest management and reforestation potential in the regions of Boeny and DIANA in Madagascar" (AFOB). The project analysed deforestation and forest degradation along with their drivers, and evaluated the success of reforestation programs implemented over the past decades. These past programs sought to foster sustainable charcoal production practices, thereby reducing reliance on natural forests. To achieve these objectives, we used a spatial analysis approach that relied on open-access remote sensing data products. For natural forests, we identified when and where potential forest degradation and deforestation occurred and demonstrated forest fragmentation dynamics, differentiating between protected and non-protected areas. Our findings revealed that between 2000-2023, deforestation and forest degradation have increased substantially, with degradation having been a more significant issue in the past than previously understood. Key drivers include the conversion of forests into agricultural land, fire, illegal charcoal production, and the illegal extraction of valuable timber. We showed that over the last two decades, cropland has expanded significantly, with an even faster rate of increase in recent years. Our findings suggest that deforestation and forest degradation should be viewed as distinct but interrelated threats, each driven by different underlying processes that require tailored strategies, respectively. In the reforestation areas, crown cover was initially low during the first rotation but showed an upward trend over the analysed period. However, more than half of the plots did not develop crown cover exceeding 20%, suggesting that they did not reach their full ecological potential. In a subsequent analysis, we found that environmental factors, such as topography and soil, consistently influenced crown cover development across regions and programs, while the influence of socio-economic factors varied by program and region. However, these factors had only a weak overall influence on crown cover. In contrast, our analysis suggested that unaccounted plot-level factors, which we could not include due to data limitations, had a significant impact on crown cover variation. These factors could potentially include initial planting densities, survival rates, presence of remnant vegetation, fire management, and management objectives of the landowner, though their exact nature remains speculative. This indicates that a uniform reforestation approach is ineffective; instead, site-specific adaptive management is crucial for success. In an additional analysis, we identified suitable areas with potentially high growth rates for reforestation, which can guide future restoration initiatives with a stronger focus on site-specific planning. The insights gained from the AFOB project will assist GIZ in planning and implementing targeted reforestation and conservation initiatives, ultimately supporting the preservation of Madagascar's unique ecosystems and maintaining ecological integrity. |
| Abstract: | Die Wälder Madagaskars sind für ihre hohe biologische Vielfalt bekannt und beherbergen zahlreiche endemische Pflanzen- und Tierarten. Diese Ökosysteme sind jedoch stark durch menschliche Aktivitäten bedroht, die zu Abholzung und Walddegradierung führen. Wirksame Naturschutzmaßnahmen müssen sich sowohl auf den Erhalt der verbleibenden natürlichen Wälder als auch auf die Wiederherstellung bereits zerstörter Wälder konzentrieren. Zur Bewältigung dieser Herausforderungen führte das Thünen-Institut für Waldwirtschaft in Zusammenarbeit mit der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) das Projekt 'Analyse des Waldbewirtschaftungs- und Wiederaufforstungspotenzials in den Regionen Boeny und DIANA in Madagaskar (AFOB)" durch. Das Projekt analysierte die Entwaldung und Walddegradierung sowie deren Ursachen und den Erfolg von Wiederaufforstungsprogrammen, die in den letzten Jahrzehnten durchgeführt wurden. Diese Programme zielten darauf ab, nachhaltige Praktiken für die Holzkohlegewinnung zu fördern und so die Abhängigkeit von natürlichen Wäldern zu reduzieren. Um die Projektziele zu erreichen, verwendeten wir einen räumlichen Analyseansatz, der auf frei zugänglichen Fernerkundungsprodukten basierte. Für Naturwälder haben wir ermittelt, wann und wo potenzielle Walddegradierung und Entwaldung erfolgten und die Dynamik der Waldfragmentierung aufgezeigt. Dabei haben wir zwischen geschützten und nicht geschützten Waldgebieten unterschieden. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Entwaldung und Walddegradierung zwischen 2000 und 2023 erheblich zugenommen haben, und dass die Degradierung in der Vergangenheit ein größeres Ausmaß hatte als bisher angenommen. Zu den Hauptursachen gehören die Umwandlung von Wäldern in landwirtschaftliche Flächen, Waldbrände, illegale Holzkohleproduktion und der illegale Einschlag wertvoller Bäume. Wir konnten zeigen, dass sich die Ackerflächen in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten deutlich ausweiteten, wobei die Zuwachsrate in den letzten Jahren nochmals anstieg. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Entwaldung und Walddegradierung als unterschiedliche, aber miteinander verknüpfte Bedrohungen betrachtet werden sollten, denen jeweils spezifische Prozesse zugrunde liegen, die angepasste Strategien erfordern. In den Wiederaufforstungsflächen war die Überschirmung während der ersten Umtriebszeit zunächst gering, zeigte aber über den Untersuchungszeitraum hinweg eine steigende Tendenz. Auf mehr als der Hälfte der Flächen blieb der Überschirmungsgrad jedoch unter 20 %, was darauf hinweist, dass das volle ökologische Potenzial nicht ausgeschöpft wurde. Eine weitergehende Analyse zeigte, dass Umweltfaktoren wie Topografie und Bodentypen die Entwicklung des Überschirmungsgrads in allen Regionen und Programmen ähnlich beeinflussten, während der Einfluss sozioökonomischer Faktoren je nach Programm und Region variierte. Diese Faktoren hatten jedoch insgesamt nur einen geringen Einfluss auf die Überschirmung. Im Gegensatz dazu deuten unsere Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass flächenspezifische kleinräumige Faktoren, die wir aufgrund eingeschränkter Datenverfügbarkeit nicht in die Analyse einbezogen werden konnten, signifikant zur Variation der Überschirmung beitrugen. Zu diesen Faktoren, deren genaue Natur spekulativ bleibt, könnten z.B. anfängliche Bepflanzungsdichten, Überlebensraten, Vorhandensein von Restvegetation, Feuermanagement und Bewirtschaftungsziele des Landbesitzers gehören. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass ein einheitlicher Wiederaufforstungsansatz ineffektiv ist; für den Erfolg ist vielmehr ein standortspezifisches, adaptives Management entscheidend. In einer zusätzlichen Analyse haben wir geeignete Gebiete mit potenziell hohen Wachstumsraten für die Wiederaufforstung identifiziert, die als Orientierungshilfe für künftige Wiederherstellungsinitiativen dienen können, in denen standortspezifische Planung eine größere Rolle spielt. |
| Keywords: | deforestation, forest degradation, remote sensing, reforestation, forest landscapes, Entwaldung, Walddegradierung, Fernerkundung, Wiederaufforstung, Waldlandschaften |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:307127 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich (University of Toronto and NBER); Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University, NBER and CEPR); Yanos Zylberberg (University of Bristol and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801–1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| Keywords: | United Kingdom; international trade, income distribution, geography |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:337 |