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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2024‒04‒15
33 papers chosen by |
| By: | Karlo Fermin S. Adriano (Ateneo de Manila University); Marites M. Tiongco (De La Salle University); Albert Lamberte (De La Salle University); Eva Marie D. Aragones (ACERD); Emmanuel DC. Barnedo (ACERD); Senen Bacani (Bangsamoro Peace Panel Member and former DA Secretary) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to determine the factors of the agricultural sector and its impact to food prices to preserve households’ purchasing power through ensuring food security. High food prices are a result of a lack of an efficient agri-food system, legislative barriers, and institutional challenges in governance and policy. And this is intricately linked with food security and poverty alleviation. The most economically vulnerable households allocate approximately 60 percent of their total income to food expenditures; any price hikes in this regard will further strain their already tight budgets. Escalating food prices can result in malnutrition and related socio-economic issues. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, rice, food prices, poverty, food security, nutrition security, partial equilibrium, welfare effects, SWOT, multinomial regression |
| JEL: | C3 D58 I38 O13 P36 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agy:dpaper:202402&r=agr |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Vos, Rob; Kim, Soonho; Park, Beyeong; Zaki, Sediqa; Mamboundou, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available. The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience. |
| Keywords: | staple foods; food prices; Ukraine; less favoured areas; vulnerability; food security; imports; price volatility |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2243&r=agr |
| By: | Francois Bareille (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raja Chakir (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Derya Keles (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether farmers adapt their pesticide use to cope with weather shocks. Using a unique, exhaustive dataset detailing all active substance purchases per zip code in France between 2014 and 2019, we econometrically explain pesticide purchase deviations by weather shocks. We identify heterogeneous weather impacts across pesticide types, seasons and locations. Because our analyses suggest limited year-to-year pesticide storage and farmers' adaptation along other margins, we interpret our estimates as true weather impacts on pesticide use. Our preferred estimates suggest that, ceteris paribus, farmers increase pesticide use by 7%-15% in 2050 under a RCP4.5 climate change scenario. |
| Abstract: | Cet article cherche à savoir si les agriculteurs adaptent leur utilisation de pesticides pour faire face aux chocs météorologiques. En utilisant un ensemble de données unique et exhaustif détaillant tous les achats de substances actives par code postal en France entre 2014 et 2019, nous expliquons économétriquement les écarts d'achat de pesticides par les chocs météorologiques. Nous identifions des impacts météorologiques hétérogènes selon les types de pesticides, les saisons et les lieux. Étant donné que nos analyses suggèrent un stockage limité des pesticides d'une année sur l'autre et l'adaptation des agriculteurs à d'autres marges, nous interprétons nos estimations comme de véritables impacts météorologiques sur l'utilisation des pesticides. Nos estimations privilégiées suggèrent que, toutes choses égales par ailleurs, les agriculteurs augmentent leur utilisation de pesticides de 7 % à 15 % en 2050 dans le cadre d'un scénario de changement climatique RCP4.5. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation, Climate change, Crop protection, Weather, Within-season adjustments |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04502178&r=agr |
| By: | Garcia-Galan, Mar |
| Abstract: | Vine culture is one of the most important farming activities in countries from Southern Europe. In particular, Spain is one of the main wine producing countries in the world. Designations of origin have become important brands in the agro-food market to sell products. In the Spanish agro-food market, designations of origin have been established during the last three decades and wine products have been adapted to these protection forms. Spain can represent a good example of analysis of how PDO`s have been established and how wine products (as the main agro food product) have been adapted to these protection forms. The winemakers have been strongly engaged towards their designations of origin showing a clear commitment to this form of protection of agro-food products, promoting and strengthening their brands, aware that the consumer perceives the product's quality. The presence in the markets of PDO wine is consolidated upon time. Also, during the last three decades Spanish winemakers have faced critical situations. Besides the problems arising, the wine designations of origin maintain a solid presence in the agro-food market, giving a solid base to firms. |
| Date: | 2024–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:cfg5w&r=agr |
| By: | Purushotham, Anjali; Steinhübel, Linda |
| Abstract: | With growing cities and improving infrastructure all over the world, smallholder farms not only gain better access to agricultural markets but also off-farm labor markets. As a result, the opportunity cost of farm labor increases, and households’ livelihood portfolios often become more complex, i.e., a share of the household labor is allocated towards off-farm activities. While such diversification is often beneficial for household incomes, the consequences for household nutrition are less clear. Especially, empirical evidence considering the interaction of different employment choices and pathways through which livelihood diversification affects nutrition is still scarce. To address this gap, we first develop a conceptual framework that considers subsistence agricultural production, commercialized agricultural operations, off-farm employment, and the role of market access in explaining household nutrition. Then, we use panel data from the rural-urban interface (RUI) of Bangalore in South India and apply a fixed-effects regression framework to analyze how employment choices affect household consumption of calories, protein, fat, saturated fat, carbohydrates, total sugar, and sodium. We also explore whether the observed effect patterns are driven by income or lifestyle changes associated with livelihood diversification. Our analysis shows that households in the RUI of Bangalore on average consume excess quantities of nutrients considered, indicating the onset of dietary transition that accompanies urbanization. Commercialized agriculture and/or off-farm employment lead to a reduction in the excess consumption of nutrients. This effect is however linked to lifestyle changes, while potential income gains further increase excess consumption. Our analysis also shows that the observed reductions in nutrient consumption through lifestyle changes vary depending on a household’s location in the RUI, with households located close to Bangalore displaying stronger improvements. All in all, livelihood diversification is associated with an improvement in the household nutrient consumption status mediated by lifestyle rather than income factors associated with improved market access. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:340930&r=agr |
| By: | Asante, Felix A. |
| Abstract: | Global estimates show over half a billion people go hungry (FAO, 2020) and close to 2 billion people are either obese or overweight with another 2 billion of the world’s population suffering from micronutrient deficiencies (Micha et al., 2020, Fresco et al., 2017). Inarguably, the world faces significant malnutrition problem (including micro- and macro-nutrient deficiencies, obesity, and diet related non-communicable diseases). This is evident in a recent analysis pointing out that effort in achieving the Global Nutrition Targets is likely to be missed. The observed malnutrition threat is accompanied by climate change, which is influencing food production and consumption trends, and thereby leading to undernutrition and affecting overall development. In addition, there are growing incomes, accelerated urbanization, and expanding middle classes which are also causing significant changes in consumer behaviour and nutritional choices, necessitating both public and private expenditures for better food market integration. As a result, there is a pressing need to examine our food systems to guarantee food and nutrition security and to advance sustainable development. It is likely that the COVID-19 impact may further exacerbates the worsening food insecurity and nutritional status of the most vulnerable groups including women, children and adolescents, refugees and displaced people, smallholders in rural areas, and the urban poor. |
| Keywords: | nutrition; hunger; non-communicable diseases; obesity; malnutrition; climate change; food systems; COVID-19; capacity development; Western Africa; Africa; Ghana |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:140484&r=agr |
| By: | Suganthi Pazhanivel Koushika; Anbalagan Krishnaveni; Sellaperumal Pazhanivelan; Alagirisamy Bharani; Venugopal Arunkumar; Perumal Devaki; Narayanan Muthukrishnan |
| Abstract: | The loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) poses a severe danger to agricultural sustainability around the World. This review examines various farming practices and their impact on soil organic carbon storage. After a careful review of the literature, most of the research indicated that different farming practices, such as organic farming, cover crops, conservation tillage, and agroforestry, play vital roles in increasing the SOC content of the soil sustainably. Root exudation from cover crops increases microbial activity and helps break down complex organic compounds into organic carbon. Conservation tillage enhances the soil structure and maintains carbon storage without disturbing the soil. Agroforestry systems boost organic carbon input and fasten nutrient cycling because the trees and crops have symbiotic relationships. Intercropping and crop rotations have a role in changing the composition of plant residues and promoting carbon storage. There were many understanding on the complex interactions between soil organic carbon dynamics and agricultural practices. Based on the study, the paper reveals, the role of different agricultural practices like Carbon storage through cover crops, crop rotation, mulching Conservation tillage, conventional tillage, zero tillage and organic amendments in organic carbon storage in the soil for maximum crop yield to improve the economic condition of the cultivators. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.07530&r=agr |
| By: | Asante, Felix A. |
| Abstract: | Like other countries in the sub-region particularly West African economies, Ghana is grappling with multiple burdens of malnutrition which is accompanied by climate change that influence food production and consumption trends, and thereby leading to undernutrition and affecting overall development. In addition, growing incomes, accelerated urbanization, and expanding middle classes are also causing significant changes in consumer behavior and nutritional choices, necessitating both public and private expenditures for better food market integration. While food insecurity, and undernutrition (e.g. stunting, micronutrient deficiencies) persist, obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases are rising rapidly. General nutrition situation and identification of the highest priority nutrition problems. Various estimates of nutritional status of Ghanaian children under aged 5 years show that 19% were stunted, 5% were wasted, and 11% were underweight. In 2018, the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) showed nearly similar rates of stunting (18%), wasting (7%) and underweight (13%), suggesting that stunting prevalence improved only marginally during the last 5-6 years, whereas child wasting and underweight worsened during the period. Other significant problems of undernutrition in Ghana include a high prevalence anemia in children 6-59 months (55%), adolescent girls (48%) and women of reproductive age (42%). From the foregoing, the high priority nutrition challenges in Ghana, include “stunting and wasting in children under 5 years of age; anemia in children 6-59 months of age, adolescent girls, and women of reproductive age; but also, overweight and obesity in school-age children and younger adolescents; and overweight and obesity in women of reproductive age (15-49 y of age). Report of the Demographic and Health Surveys show a significant rising trend in adult obesity – from 10% in 1993 to 40% in 2015 (GSS et al., 2015). Also, the Ghanaian food environments (particularly in the urban areas) is currently characterized by cheap highly-processed foods, with nutrient-dense foods such fruits and vegetables lacking in meals because it is unaffordable (Laar, 2021). |
| Keywords: | malnutrition; climate change; food production; consumer behaviour; food security; non-communicable diseases; capacity development; Western Africa; Africa; Ghana |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:140481&r=agr |
| By: | Joseph, Josiah; Hayoge, Glen; Sikas-Iha, Helmtrude; Dorosh, Paul; Schmidt, Emily; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu |
| Abstract: | Sweet potato plays an important role in the food system of Papua New Guinea (PNG), accounting for over 12 percent of total calories consumed in the country (IFPRI, 2023). Three-quarters of sweet potato production takes place in the highlands where it is harvested throughout the year (Chang et al., 2013). However, the production and consumption of sweet potatoes in PNG faces several challenges, including climate change, pests and diseases, and market access constraints. In particular, a significant decline in sweet potato production due to an El Niño-related drought in early 2024 is a realistic possibility. This memo describes analysis using a partial equilibrium model to estimate the potential effects of a shortfall in sweet potato production on market prices and consumption, including consumption levels for various types of households in the highlands and other parts of PNG. We also discuss policy options for mitigating negative effects on household welfare. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; sweet potatoes; food systems; calories; agricultural production; market prices; consumption; household food security; El Niño; drought |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:140447&r=agr |
| By: | Irène Mestre (InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes); Sabrina Dermine-Brullot (InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, Chaire de recherche Transitions des Territoires Agricoles - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes); Pierre Guillemin (ASTER Mirecourt - Agro-Systèmes Territoires Ressources Mirecourt - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, ESO - Espaces et Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Pauline Marty (InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, Chaire de recherche Transitions des Territoires Agricoles - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes); Emma Teillet (InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, Chaire de recherche Transitions des Territoires Agricoles - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes, UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes); Céline Schott (ASTER Mirecourt - Agro-Systèmes Territoires Ressources Mirecourt - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The sanitary measures induced by Covid-19 have caused an unprecedented shock to food demand by profoundly affecting consumption patterns, which recent events (the crisis in Ukraine) have put back at the center of the issues of autonomy, resilience, and vulnerability of agricultural and food systems. Our research mobilizes four contrasting case studies in the Grand Est region to understand how agricultural and food systems have reacted to Covid-19, and its possible implications in the face of other disruptions. In this paper, we propose an analytical framework to highlight the resilience characteristics of the agricultural and food systems in the Grand Est. More specifically, we examine the role of local authorities in proximity and long distance circuits and their effects on the resilience of the agricultural and food systems. |
| Abstract: | Les mesures sanitaires induites par la Covid-19 ont provoqué un choc sans précédent sur la demande alimentaire en affectant profondément les modes de consommation, que l'actualité récente (crise en Ukraine) replace au centre des enjeux d'autonomie, de résilience, et de vulnérabilité des systèmes agricoles et alimentaires (SAA). Notre recherche mobilise quatre cas d'étude contrastés en Grand Est pour comprendre comment les SAA ont réagi face à la Covid-19, et ses possibles implications face à d'autres perturbations. Dans cet article, nous proposons une grille d'analyse permettant de mettre en évidence les caractéristiques de résilience du SAA en GrandEst. Plus précisément, nous interrogeons le rôle des collectivités territoriales dans les circuits de proximité et circuits longs et leurs effets sur la résilience des SAA. |
| Keywords: | Agri-food system, Health crisis, Public actor, Resilience, Adaptation, Collectivités territoriales, Crise sanitaire, Résilience, Système agrialimentaire |
| Date: | 2022–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04487277&r=agr |
| By: | Schmidt, Emily; Fang, Peixun; Jemal, Mekamu; Mahrt, Kristi; Mukerjee, Rishabh; Rosenbach, Gracie; Yadav, Shweta |
| Abstract: | From May to December 2023, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) implemented a rural household survey that collected detailed data on rural household food consumption and expenditures, agricultural production practices, employment profiles, child and mother 24-hour diet recall, and child anthropometry measurements in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The research team carried out the survey, which used location-based sampling, across five agroecological study areas, of which four of the areas were defined using elevation and rainfall variation. The five agroecological survey areas were seasonal highlands, nonseasonal highlands, seasonal lowlands, nonseasonal lowlands, and islands (the islands survey sample was not disaggregated by elevation or precipitation patterns). In identifying seasonal and nonseasonal survey areas, we adapted the rainfall seasonality categories established by Bourke and Harwood (2009), who evaluated the relative difference in rainfall between the wet and the dry season using resource mapping units defined by the PNG Resource Information System (PNGRIS). The areas of the country that experience large seasonal variation in rainfall (heavy to light, depending on the season) are classified as seasonal, whereas the areas that experience moderate to continuously heavy rainfall throughout the year are classified as nonseasonal (see Figure A1.1 in the appendix for the survey seasonality classification by area). In nonseasonal areas, agricultural growing conditions remain similar year-round, whereas seasonal rainfall areas have agricultural conditions that necessitate a variety of production strategies. Lowland and highland areas were defined using elevation data; areas 1, 000 meters or more above sea level were classified as highlands, and those below 1, 000 meters were classified as lowlands. The survey collected data from 270 communities across 14 provinces, from a total of 2, 699 households. It is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative. Rather, we chose a purposive sample using criteria that would enable analysts of the data to understand the key factors that interact within rural households and communities to create more resilient local food systems, more diversified employment profiles, and improved well-being. Generalizable relationships between variables that affect socioeconomic and other development outcomes in rural PNG communities should be seen consistently in both representative and unrepresentative survey samples. |
| Keywords: | agricultural production; food consumption; households; surveys; capacity development; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:140437&r=agr |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan |
| Abstract: | Smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face multiple constraints that often constrain them against participating in the production of high value products. Even where it is agroeco logically possible or even advantageous to produce specific products, smallholders may lack knowledge about how to grow those products and may also lack market information for those products. As smallholders typically lack access to formal financial institutions, their ability to borrow, save, or in sure against risks associated with growing those products is limited. These challenges combine to make it difficult for smallholders to participate in markets that could increase their incomes. |
| Keywords: | smallholders; products; markets; financial institutions; income; agriculture |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:139944&r=agr |
| By: | Arua, Stanley; Gondo, Robert; Kinau, Adrian; Kotto, Aaron; Dorosh, Paul; Schmidt, Emily; Tian, Junyan |
| Abstract: | Coffee is one of Papua New Guinea’s leading agricultural export in value terms, accounting for 156 million USD of export earnings in 2021 (FAOSTAT, 2023), 13 percent of agricultural export revenues and 1.4 percent of total export revenues. The coffee industry is a major source of income for some 2.5 million people, mainly in farm households, and is cultivated in 17 out of 22 provinces (ACIAR, 2021). Coffee exports and incomes are threatened, however, by a number of supply side factors such as ageing coffee trees, outbreaks of coffee berry borer, poor production practices and challenges in reaching markets (i.e. transport and post-harvest handling), as well as by demand-side fluctuations in the world price of coffee (World Bank, 2022; Dorum et al., 2023). This research note first presents an overview of PNG’s coffee sector, including a discussion of production trends and structure of the coffee value chain. We then utilize a simple partial equilibrium model of coffee supply and demand, along with data on coffee production and household consumption from the PNG Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) of 2009/10, FAOSTAT and the World Bank, to simulate the impacts of potential production and price shocks on the coffee industry in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Finally, we present an analysis of price movements in recent years and the potential costs and benefits of a price stabilization policy for coffee producers. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; coffee; agriculture; income; households |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:december2023&r=agr |
| By: | Susan Das (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation); Renuka Sane (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum) |
| Abstract: | Shifting agriculture away from the grid may help address fiscal challenges faced by the Tamil Nadu state government. The paper presents a cost-benefit analysis of implementing solarised irrigation pumps in Erode district, Tamil Nadu. The analysis is based on underlying assumptions on climatic conditions, cropping patterns and irrigation requirements in the district. The results suggest that the state and discom can benefit from the solarisation of agriculture if they can sell surplus power to commercial and industrial (C&I) consumers or in the power exchange market. The paper also performs cost-benefit analysis with the assumption of reduction in solar panel costs in future and finds that the discom would continue to gain net positive benefits. The paper also recommends formalising higher feed-in tariffs, supporting capital cost through subsidies, and exploring alternative procurement approaches. |
| Keywords: | Electricity, Tamil Nadu, agriculture, solar pumps, tariffs, subsidies |
| JEL: | Q H2 H53 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjd:wpaper:1&r=agr |
| By: | Gimiseve, Harry; Miamba, Nelson; Na’ata, Bartholomew; Dorosh, Paul; Schmidt, Emily; Yadav, Shweta |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Papua New Guinea introduced a partial ban on poultry imports from Australia and Asian countries (representing about 70 percent of total PNG poultry imports) in response to the biosecurity threat posed by Avian Influenza (bird flu). Such a restriction on supply has the potential to lead to sharp price increases, steep reductions in household consumption and greater food insecurity. This memo presents an overview of PNG’s poultry sector and describes an analysis of the ef fects of these trade restrictions on poultry prices, production and consumption using a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s poultry sector. This new analysis builds on earlier work (Dorosh and Schmidt, 2023) that explored the implications of a total ban on poultry imports, by simulating the impacts of a partial poultry ban, including the effects on various household groups within PNG. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; poultry; imports; biosecurity; avian influenza; supply; prices; household consumption; food security; trade |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:140446&r=agr |
| By: | Caroline Fyfe (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Phoebe Taptiklis (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Dominic White (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Niven Winchester (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this report is to review greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change mitigation data and models. Building an evidence base to monitor and assess the impacts of initiatives is explicitly mentioned in Aotearoa New Zealand’s First Emissions Reduction Plan (05/2022). Economic-Environmental modelling plays an important role in decision making to achieve emission reduction targets. Data is hosted by a range of organisations and collected using different frameworks and methodologies. There is less awareness of data available through Stats NZ which may have led to it being underused. Main collated data sources are the GHG emissions account and the GHG emissions inventory. Sector specific data are available through relevant agencies. A detailed stock-take of New Zealand’s modelling capacity identified 84 climate change or climate change mitigation models: 13 multi-sector models, 23 land use and agricultural models, 25 energy models, and 23 transport models. The stock-take identified at least one model for each sector of the ERP, except for Building and Construction. Modelling capacity varies between sectors with those that are more developed, demonstrating greater interdependency between models. Almost all modelling takes a production-based approach. Capacity for a consumption-based approach was much more limited. Two examples of formal collaboration are identified through the review. No formal international collaboration (outside of international reporting requirements) was identified. A preference was expressed for modelling in-house to facilitate alignment with policy development. However, this may have contributed to lack of collaboration on progress towards common targets. Connections with groups outside of government are also limited. |
| Keywords: | Greenhouse gas emissions, Emissions abatement, Climate change modelling, Data management, Policy analysis |
| JEL: | C31 D58 Q4 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:23_06&r=agr |
| By: | Naveen Kumar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Dibyendu Maiti (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term impact of climate change on Indian economic growth, both at aggregate and dis-aggregated levels across regions and sectors. A simple Ramsey model is built to show that the resource abundance, climatic exposure, and state capacity affecting the rate of resource mobilisation for productivity and efficiency improvement determine regional growth. A crosssectional augmented auto-regressive distributed lag model (CS-ARDL), addressing endogeneity, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence with stochastic trends, employed in 29 major states from 1980 to 2019, confirms a significant and negative impact of temperature rise on total factor productivity and the resultant economic growth. On average, one Celcius degree of temperature rise has depressed economic growth by approximately 3.89%, with substantial variations across states, sectors, and income groups. The variation in labour relations, industrialisation level, forest cover, and debts across the states affecting the ecological damage and efficiency changes in labour and capital differentially has been found responsible for the variation in TFP and the resultant growth. Our estimated coefficients combined with the projected temperature reveal that poorer and less developed states are expected to be more vulnerable than others because of their dependence on agriculture and ecological resources. The GSDP growth is projected to decrease by a range of 5.25% to 24.51% during 2020 to 2100 from the Stringent Mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6) to the Business-as-Usual scenario (SSP5-8.5). JEL Code: O44, Q54, Q51 |
| Keywords: | climate change, economic growth, India, panel data, adaptation |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:345&r=agr |
| By: | Bente Halvorsen; Kristine Grimsrud (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Unmanaged and overgrown coastal heathlands represent a substantial fire hazard. We analyse how this hazard in Norwegian coastal heathlands is influenced by weather conditions, land management, and usage. Our analysis integrates vegetation, maintenance, and management data with emergency response records from fire departments and weather data. Using panel data regressions, we assess the risk of fire in response to these variables. A key finding is that increased coastal heathland management significantly reduces fire risk, particularly during droughts, warm weather, and periods with strong winds. The reason is that well-maintained coastal heathlands having reduced levels of dry vegetation, making them less susceptible to ignition even during conditions when the overall fire hazard is increased. |
| Keywords: | Land use; Landscape maintenance; Costal heathlands; Fire hazard; Panel data |
| JEL: | C23 Q15 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1011&r=agr |
| By: | Abedullah (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad); Muhammad Faisal Ali (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Genetically pure and high-quality seeds are imperative to achieve the objective of high productivity in the agriculture sector. However, the current regulatory processes involve numerous steps and engage multiple government departments, resulting in significant delays and costs. It has badly damaged the growth and potential benefits of both agriculture and the seed sector. Different stakeholders are involved in the development and marketing of seed business considering that the seed sector is over-regulated. Due to over-regulation private sector is reluctant to invest in Research and Development of the seed sector. In the modern marketing system, the reputation of a brand is more valuable than the approvals from Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department (FSC&RD). |
| Keywords: | Pakistan, Opportunity, Excel, |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:monogr:2024:1&r=agr |
| By: | Annalisa Frigo (Bank of Italy); Andrea Venturini (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | In light of increased natural risks, this work studies the demand by firms for insurance against the physical risks posed by climate change. This analysis is based on the Invind sample, a survey conducted by the Bank of Italy on a sample of Italian companies in 2021. The questions relating to insurance coverage are cross-referenced with the characteristics of the company and the riskiness of their territory, geolocating the companies' production plants and exploiting the granularity of the climatological maps provided by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and the seismic risk maps of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology. The empirical analysis suggests that exposure to seismic risk is positively associated with the demand for insurance policies against natural and climate damage, with heterogeneous effects on companies operating in industry and services. On the other hand, no evidence emerges that the potential impacts from climate change contribute to demand for insurance. |
| Keywords: | insurance, climate, natural disasters |
| JEL: | G22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_830_24&r=agr |
| By: | Fernández L., Juan; Fernández, María Ignacia; Soloaga, Isidro |
| Date: | 2023–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:68913&r=agr |
| By: | Piero Ronzani (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany); Wolfgang Stojetz (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany); Carlo Azzarri (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA); Gianluigi Nico (The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA); Erdgin Mane (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy); Tilman Brück (ISDC – International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany, Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops, Großbeeren, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides empirical microlevel evidence on the gendered impacts of armed conflict on economic activity in agriculture and other sectors, combining large-N sex-disaggregated survey data with temporally and spatially disaggregated conflict event data from 29 African countries. We find that local conflict exposure is only weakly related to labour-force participation, but strongly reduces the total number of hours worked and increases engagement in the agricultural sector. These net impacts exist for both men and women. However, the reduction in hours worked is significantly greater among men, while the increase in agricultural activity is significantly greater among women. In the longer term, impacts of conflict on employment two years later are stronger when no more conflict ensues than if further conflict occurs, challenging the widespread idea of one-off conflict shocks fading away over time and suggesting that labour markets adapt to and absorb lasting conflict situations. Different types of conflict event have qualitatively similar impacts, which are strongest for explosions, such as from air strikes or landmines. Overall, our findings underline that armed conflict entails structural economic, social and institutional change, which creates complex, gendered impacts on economic activity. |
| Keywords: | conflict shocks, gender, agrifood systems, Africa, labor market adaptation, employment |
| JEL: | D74 J16 O10 O13 O18 Q10 Q34 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:409&r=agr |
| By: | Maxime Ollier (Agricultural and Resource Economics - Institute of Natural Resource Sciences - ZHAW - Zurich University of Applied Sciences, UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Stéphane De Cara (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The potential regressivity of an emission tax is a major obstacle to the implementation of this otherwise cost-effective instrument. Rebates may help overcome this difficulty. Their distributional consequences depend on their design and the distribution of agents' initial emissions and abatement costs. We develop a stylized analytical framework to derive general conditions under which a tax-and-rebate scheme increases income inequality and compare the performances of various rebate designs. This framework is applied to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture. An emission tax with no rebate is found to substantially reduce agricultural emissions (by approximately −15% for a 100 €/tCOeq tax), but also strongly affect the total sector income (approximately −20% with the same tax rate) as well as increase income inequality. A flat rebate considerably reduces income inequality relative to pre-policy levels. For the same impacts on aggregate income and budget, a rebate proportional to initial emissions leaves pre-existing inequality virtually unchanged. A well-designed rebate can thus be critical for the acceptability of climate policy instruments. |
| Abstract: | La régressivité potentielle d'une taxe sur les émissions est un obstacle majeur à la mise en œuvre de cet instrument par ailleurs rentable. Les rabais peuvent aider à surmonter cette difficulté. Leurs conséquences distributives dépendent de leur conception et de la distribution des émissions initiales et des coûts de réduction des agents. Nous développons un cadre analytique stylisé pour dériver les conditions générales dans lesquelles un système de taxe et de rabais augmente l'inégalité des revenus et pour comparer les performances de différents modèles de rabais. Ce cadre est appliqué à la réglementation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre de l'agriculture européenne. On constate qu'une taxe sur les émissions sans rabais réduit considérablement les émissions agricoles (d'environ -15 % pour une taxe de 100 €/tCOeq), mais affecte aussi fortement le revenu total du secteur (environ -20 % avec le même taux d'imposition) et accroît l'inégalité des revenus. Un abattement forfaitaire réduit considérablement l'inégalité des revenus par rapport aux niveaux antérieurs à la politique. Pour les mêmes impacts sur le revenu global et le budget, un rabais proportionnel aux émissions initiales laisse les inégalités préexistantes pratiquement inchangées. Un rabais bien conçu peut donc être déterminant pour l'acceptabilité des instruments de la politique climatique. |
| Keywords: | Emission tax-and-rebate, Climate policy Emission tax-and-rebate Income inequality European agriculture |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04483758&r=agr |
| By: | Patrick Lloyd-Smith (University of Saskatchewan, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics); Ewa Zawojska |
| Abstract: | Economic analysis of environmental policy projects typically use pre-existing welfare estimates that are then transferred over time to the policy relevant periods. Understanding how stable and predictable these welfare estimates are over time is important for applying these estimates in policy. Yet, revealed preference models of recreation demand have received few temporal stability assessments compared to other non-market valuation methods. We use a large administrative dataset on campground reservations covering ten years to study temporal stability and predictability of recreation demand welfare estimates of lake water quality changes. Based on single-year models, our findings suggest welfare estimates are temporally stable across years in around 50% of the comparisons. Using an event study design, we find evidence that welfare estimates are stable within a year, that is, for weeks after a change in water quality. Our findings further reveal that having two years of data for predicting welfare estimates in subsequent years improves the prediction accuracy by 22% relative to using a single year of data, but further improvements in the prediction accuracy are modest when including additional years of data. Predictions of welfare estimates are not necessarily improved when using data closer in time to the prediction year. We discuss the implications of our results for using revealed preference studies in policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | recreation demand, revealed preferences, temporal stability, prediction accuracy, water quality, welfare estimates |
| JEL: | H41 Q26 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2024-05&r=agr |
| By: | Etienne Le Rossignol; Sara Lowes; Eduardo Montero |
| Abstract: | We study a fundamental institution in many societies: the structure of property rights over land. Across societies, communal land rights have been more common than private land rights. We test the hypothesis that longer fallow requirements – the time needed to leave land uncultivated to restore fertility – led to a higher prevalence of communal property rights. Longer fallow requirements generate higher protection costs and therefore make communal rights more beneficial. We construct an ecological measure of the optimal fallow length for the most suitable staple crop across grid cells based on soil type, temperature, and climate. We find that places where land needs to be fallowed for longer periods are more likely to have communal property rights both historically and presently. We then examine the implications for efforts to title land. We find that World Bank land titling interventions are less effective in places with longer fallow requirements, suggesting a mismatch between development policy and underlying institutions. Finally, we examine implications for income inequality and conflict. We find that longer fallow requirements are associated with less inequality, less conflict, and greater resilience to negative shocks. Our results highlight the origins of property rights structures and how communal property rights interact with development policies. |
| JEL: | O43 P14 Q15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32226&r=agr |
| By: | Njiru, Ruth; Appel, Franziska; Dong, Changxing; Balmann, Alfons |
| Abstract: | In light of the dynamic challenges facing agricultural land markets, the conventional analytical frameworks fall short in capturing the intricate interplay of strategic decisions and evolving complexities. This necessitates the development of a novel method, integrating deep learning into Agent-based Modelling, to provide a more realistic and nuanced understanding of land market dynamics, enabling informed policy assessments and contributing to a comprehensive discourse on agricultural structural change. In this paper, different deep learning models are tested and evaluated, as emulators of AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator). AgriPoliS is an agent-based model used to model the evolution of structural change in agriculture resultant on the change in the policy environment. This study is part of preliminary works towards integrating deep learning methods and predictions with AgriPoliS to capture strategic decision making and actions of agents in land markets. The paper tests the models on their suitability, computational requirements and run-time complexities. The output from AgriPoliS serves as the input features for the deep learning models. Models are evaluated using a combination of coefficient of determination (R2 score), mean absolute error, visual displays and runtime. The models were able to replicate the variable of interest with a high degree of accuracy with R2 score of more than 90%. The CNN was the most suited for replicating the data. Through this work, we learned the required complexities, computational and training efforts needed to integrate deep learning and AgriPoliS to capture strategic decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2024–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:bokufo:340874&r=agr |
| By: | Matthew E. Kahn; Amine Ouazad; Erkan Yönder |
| Abstract: | In the face of rising climate risk, financial institutions may adapt by transferring such risk to securitizers that have the skill and expertise to build diversified pools, such as Mortgage-Backed Securities. In diversified pools, exposure to climate risk may be a drop in the ocean of cash flows. This paper builds a data set of the entire securitization chain from mortgage-level to MBS deal-level cash flows, and observes the prices of the tranches at monthly frequency. Wildfires lead to higher rates of prepayment and foreclosure at the mortgage level, and larger losses during foreclosure sales. At the MBS deal level, a lower spatial concentration of dollar balances (lower spatial dollar Herfindahl), a lower spatial correlation in wildfire events (within-deal correlation), leads to a lower exposure to wildfire events. These quantifiable metrics of diversification identify those existing deals whose design makes them resilient to climate change. This paper builds optimal deals by finding the portfolio weights in an asset demand system that targets return and risk. Extrapolating wildfire risk using a granular wildfire probability model and temperature projections in 2050, we build climate resilient MBSs whose returns are minimally impacted by wildfire risk even as they supply mortgage credit to wildfire prone areas. Finally, we test whether the market prices the sensitivity of each deal’s cash flow to wildfire risk. |
| JEL: | G0 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32244&r=agr |
| By: | Md. Galib Ishraq Emran; Rhidi Barma; Akram Hussain Khan; Mrinmoy Roy |
| Abstract: | Globally, the water crisis has become a significant problem that affects developing and industrialized nations. Water shortage can harm public health by increasing the chance of contracting water-borne diseases, dehydration, and malnutrition. This study aims to examine the causes of the water problem and its likely effects on human health. The study scrutinizes the reasons behind the water crisis, including population increase, climate change, and inefficient water management techniques. The results of a lack of water on human health, such as the spread of infectious diseases, a higher risk of starvation and dehydration, and psychological stress, are also concealed in the study. The research further suggests several ways to deal with the water situation and lessen its potential outcomes on human health. These remedies include enhanced sanitation and hygiene procedures, water management, and conservation techniques like rainwater gathering and wastewater recycling. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.07019&r=agr |
| By: | Cristina Cattaneo; Emanuele Massetti; Shouro Dasgupta; Fabio Farinosi |
| Abstract: | We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; International Migration. |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/058&r=agr |
| By: | Lima do Vale, Marjorie Rafaela; Buckner, Luke; Mitrofan, Claudia Gabriela; Tramontt, Claudia Raulino; Kargbo, Sento Kai; Khalid, Ali; Ashraf, Sammyia; Mouti, Saad; Dai, Xiaowu; Unwin, David; Bohn, Jeffrey; Goldberg, Lisa; Golubic, Rajna; Ray, Sumantra |
| Abstract: | Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common non-communicable disease occurring globally. Although previous literature has provided useful insights into the important role that diet plays in CVD prevention and treatment, understanding the causal role of diets is a difficult task considering inherent and introduced weaknesses of observational (e.g. not properly addressing confounders and mediators) and experimental research designs (e.g. not appropriate or well designed). In this narrative review, we organised current evidence linking diet, as well as conventional and emerging physiological risk factors, with CVD risk, incidence and mortality in a series of diagrams. The diagrams presented can aid causal inference studies as they provide a visual representation of the types of studies underlying the associations between potential risk markers/factors for CVD. This may facilitate the selection of variables to be considered and the creation of analytical models. Evidence depicted in the diagrams was systematically collected from studies included in the British Nutrition Task Force report on diet and CVD and database searches, including Medline and Embase. Although several markers and disorders linked to conventional and emerging risk factors for CVD were identified, the causal link between many remains unknown. There is a need to address the multifactorial nature of CVD and the complex interplay between conventional and emerging risk factors with natural and built environments, while bringing the life course into the spotlight. |
| Keywords: | Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Nutrition and Dietetics, Nutrition, Prevention, Heart Disease, Cardiovascular, 2.3 Psychological, social and economic factors, Aetiology, Generic health relevance, Good Health and Well Being, Humans, Cardiovascular Diseases, Diet, Risk Factors, Nutritional Status, Evidence-Based Practice, Causality, Cardiovascular disease, Review, Risk factors, Nutritional status, Biological Sciences, Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences, Nutrition & Dietetics, Nutrition and dietetics |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt0fv1v1c1&r=agr |
| By: | GIBSON, John; ZHANG, Xiaoxuan; PARK, Albert; YI, Jiang; XI, Li |
| Abstract: | It is difficult and expensive to measure rural economic activity and poverty in developing countries. The usual survey-based approach is less informative than often realized due to combined effects of the clustered samples dictated by survey logistics and the spatial autocorrelation in rural livelihoods. Administrative data, like sub-national GDP for lower level spatial units, are often unavailable and the informality and seasonality of many rural activities raises doubts about accuracy of such measures. A recent literature argues that high-resolution satellite imagery can overcome these barriers to the measurement of rural economic activity and rural living standards and poverty. Potential advantages of satellite data include greater comparability between countries irrespective of their varying levels of statistical capacity, cheaper and more timely data availability, and the possibility of extending estimates to spatial units below the level at which GDP data or survey data are reported. While there are many types of remote sensing data, economists have particularly seized upon satellite-detected nighttime lights (NTL) as a proxy for local economic activity. Yet there are growing doubts about the universal usefulness of this proxy, with recent evidence suggesting that NTL data are a poor proxy in low-density rural areas of developing countries. This study examines performance in predicting rural sector economic activity and poverty in China with different types of satellite-detected NTL data that come from three generations of sensors of varying resolution. We include the most popular NTL source in economics, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data, whose resolution is, at best, 2.7 km, two data sources from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi/NPP satellite with spatial resolution of 0.74 km, and data from the Luojia-01 satellite that is even more spatially precise, with resolution of 0.13 km. The sensors also vary in ability to detect feeble light and in the time of night that they observe the earth. With this variation we can ascertain whether better sensors lead to better predictions. We supplement this statistical assessment with a set of ground-truthing exercises. Overall, our study may help to inform decisions about future data directions for studying rural economic activity and poverty in developing countries. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2023-08&r=agr |
| By: | Youssef Benzarti; Santiago Garriga; Darío Tortarolo |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of a temporary and large (21 p.p.) value-added tax (VAT) cut along with anti-profiteering measures on food necessities during a period of high inflation in Argentina. Using barcode-level data across more than 3, 000 supermarkets, we find that (1) absent the anti-profiteering measures, the pass-through of the temporary VAT cut to prices was asymmetric: prices responded less to the VAT cut than its repeal resulting in prices that were higher than their pre-VAT cut levels; (2) imposing anti-profiteering measures, such as setting a ceiling on price increases, led to symmetric pass-through rates. Using a household welfare model, we show that the VAT cut resulted in progressive welfare effects and that the anti-profiteering measures were successful at dampening the regressive welfare effects of the asymmetric pass-through. However, we show that these policies benefited high-income households more because pass-through rates are more asymmetric in independent grocery stores, which is precisely where low-income households tend to shop the most. |
| JEL: | H0 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32241&r=agr |
| By: | Dirven, Martine; Candia Baeza, David |
| Date: | 2023–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:68912&r=agr |