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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2020‒06‒15
27 papers chosen by |
| By: | Aparna Rao (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London); Risa Morimoto (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London) |
| Abstract: | In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years. Using the context of smallholder vegetable production in Ethiopia, this paper aims to highlight that although there is a requirement to increase yields to be able to meet the growing food demand, the focus has to shift towards looking at agricultural productivity through a sustainable lens. This is to say that increasing the use of pesticides to increase productivity, without considering human and environmental health, quality of produce and farmer income, is not enough to ensure sustainability. Rather, there is a requirement to go beyond the yield-based definition of productivity to incorporate agroecological farming practices. |
| Keywords: | pesticides; smallholders; Ethiopia; yield productivity; agricultural sustainability |
| JEL: | Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:234&r=all |
| By: | Harris, Patrick |
| Abstract: | The societal and climatic pressures towards agriculture and specifically the beef industry is increasingly prevalent in recent years. This paper has identified and evaluated the impact of climate on the TFP of the beef sector by state and as a country, which was found to be negative on balance. Additionally, it was found that Victoria was the most susceptible to changes in climate on average, complimenting previous literature that the southern regions of Australia (NSW, VIC, SA, TAS) are more susceptible to changes in climate compared to northern regions on average. Moreover, this paper addressed the current and prospective initiatives and management practices to mitigate the impact of adverse climate aberations, which found that feed additives, the breed of cattle, government subsidised insurance markets and education will assist the productivity of the beef sector in Australia and develop the resilience of farmers during extreme climate aberations. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Agriculture and climate change, agricultural econometrics, Australian beef production, beef production, total factor productivity, temperature and agriculture, Australian beef, econometrics, panel data. |
| JEL: | O4 O44 O5 O50 O56 Q0 Q1 Q12 Q14 Q15 Q18 Q2 Q20 Q28 Q5 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100795&r=all |
| By: | Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Sproule, Kathryn; Martinez, Elena M.; Malapit, Hazel J. |
| Abstract: | Although women’s empowerment and gender equality are associated with better maternal and child nutrition outcomes, recent systematic reviews find inconclusive evidence. This paper applies a comparable methodology to data on the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI), a recent internationally-validated measure based on interviews of women and men within the same household, from six countries in Africa and Asia to identify which dimensions of women’s empowerment are related to household-, women-, and child-level dietary and nutrition outcomes. We examine the relationship between women’s empowerment and household-level food security and dietary diversity; women’s dietary diversity and BMI; and child-related outcomes, controlling for woman, child, and household characteristics. We also test whether women’s empowerment has differential associations for boys and girls. We do not find consistent associations between dimensions of empowerment and food security and nutrition outcomes across countries, but some patterns emerge. Overall empowerment scores are more strongly associated with nutritional outcomes in the South Asian countries in our sample compared to the African ones. Where significant, greater intrahousehold gender equality is associated with better nutritional outcomes. However, different domains have different associations with nutritional outcomes, suggesting that tradeoffs exist: higher workloads are associated with more diverse diets but lower women’s BMI and child anthropometric outcomes. Identifying the overlap between the top contributors to disempowerment and those most strongly related to nutrition outcomes can inform the design and implementation of nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs. |
| Keywords: | BANGLADESH; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; NEPAL; CAMBODIA; SOUTH EAST ASIA; GHANA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; MOZAMBIQUE; SOUTHERN AFRICA; TANZANIA; EAST AFRICA; women; gender; agriculture; nutrition; empowerment; women's empowerment; maternal and child health; food security; body mass index; child nutrition |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1930&r=all |
| By: | Johannes Sauer (Technical University of Munich); Catherine Moreddu (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This report contains an empirical analysis of the productivity and sustainability performance of different types of farms in thirteen countries. Farm productivity performance is measured through estimates of average productivity levels and through annual rates of technical change. Evidence on the environmental sustainability of farm groups is based on an index that reflects environmental pressure per hectare and the local environmental sustainability of production practices. In addition to environmental sustainability, the analysis also considers fundamental differences across farms with respect to farm structure, innovation of operations, individual characteristics as well as farm location. Productivity performance by farm classes is related to the environmental sustainability performance and to other farm characteristics in order to shed light on the factors that drive or impede farm performance. Empirically identifying the main conditions for and obstacles to performance improvement supports the development of effective and efficient policies targeting the performance of farms. This analysis contributes in particular to a better understanding of the synergies and trade-offs between productivity and environmental sustainability performance. |
| Keywords: | agricultural policy, agriculture, drivers of performance, environmental sustainability, farm structure, innovation, productivity, technical change, technology |
| JEL: | D24 O31 O33 Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2020–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:143-en&r=all |
| By: | Mike Kwanashie; Isaac Ajilima; Abdul-Ganiyu Garba (Department of Economics Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study estimated price and non-price supply response coefficients for nine individual crops, sub-sectoral aggregates and commodity exports using the two-stage least squares (TSLS) and seemingly unrelated regression method (SURM) as tools for evaluating the effects of sub-sectoral aggregates on Nigerian agriculture. The estimates confirm two results in the supply response literature: (1) short-run price elasticities of individual crops are smaller than the long-run elasticities and (2) commodity sub-sectoral aggregates do not respond significantly to prices as individual crops. The results also show that the responses of food crops are sensitive to Nigeria’s agro-climate and the traditional cropping patterns of Nigerian farmers, who are mainly smallholders. Moreover, individual crops and sub-sectoral aggregates do not respond significantly to capital expenditure on agriculture (CEA), possibly because of action lags, weak choice of agricultural infrastructures and corruption. Non-tradeable crops are more sensitive to the SAP dummy for institutional change (D2) than to the price support and food import dummy (D1). However, the SAP dummy is likely to indicate the effects of the reverse flow of labour from urban to rural areas following the down sizing that accompanied SAP. This is because food (cassava, millet and groundnut) and cotton (consumed mainly by domestic textile companies) are the only crops that have significant and positive response coefficients. Finally, commodity exports are positively sensitive to terms of trade. The results point strongly to two conclusions. First, the significant sensitivity of crops to price incentives is not sufficient to generate desired aggregate response. This result is consistent with the findings of the supply response literature and suggests that structural adjustment is more likely to affect the distribution of farm incomes than agricultural productivity and growth. Second, the sensitivity of commodity exports to terms of trade implies that external and, hence, exogenous factors play a critical role in the path of exports. Therefore, getting domestic prices of commodities right would not be sufficient to expand the foreign revenue from commodity exports. This is also consistent with the consensus in the 1970s about the international commodity price and the well-established neoclassical propositions about the short- and long-run paths of commodity prices and income under conditions of free enterprise. The results suggest that price incentives, shorter policy lags, more efficient infrastructural support to smallholder farm households, and less corruption in the design and implementation of agricultural policies would raise the production possibility frontier of farmers, who make up over 60% of employed Nigerians. Food should be at the core of a socially optimal Nigerian agricultural policy because it has the strongest potential for structural transformation of the economy and better price and policy responsiveness than tradeable crops. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:78&r=all |
| By: | Thomas W. Hertel; Uris L.C. Baldos; Keith O. Fuglie |
| Abstract: | The recent rise in caloric undernutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) demonstrates the continued relevance of the Malthusian footrace between food availability and population. Sluggish growth in farm productivity in SSA has brought to the fore the key role of agricultural technology in alleviating future food insecurity. We develop a model of technology, food security and international trade with three distinct channels for technology reduce food insecurity in SSA. The first is via greater domestic R&D investment. An alternative is to import technologies from other countries with significant knowledge capital. The third role for technology to resolve the Malthusian dilemma in SSA is that of ‘virtual technology trade’, i.e., importing technological investments undertaken elsewhere through cheaper imported food. To assess the relative contribution of each channel to food security in Africa, we employ a partial equilibrium, quantitative trade model, augmented by a temporal relationship between R&D investments, knowledge capital and agricultural productivity. Over the historical period: 1991-2011 we find that direct R&D investments in SSA have been the dominant vehicle for lowering food prices in Africa. Looking forward to 2050, we find that virtual technology trade will be the most important vehicle for reducing non-farm undernutrition in Africa. |
| JEL: | Q16 Q17 Q56 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27148&r=all |
| By: | Hirvonen, Kalle; Abate, Gashaw T.; de Brauw, Alan |
| Abstract: | We called by telephone a representative sample of 600 households in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to assess household food and nutrition security status during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half the households indicated that their incomes were lower than expected and more than one-third reported that they are extremely stressed about the situation. Using a pre-pandemic wealth index, we find that less-wealthy households were considerably more likely to report income losses and high stress levels than were wealthier households. Compared to a period just before the pandemic (January and February 2020), indicators measuring food security have significantly worsened. In April, households were less frequently consuming relatively more expensive but nutritionally richer foods, such as fruit and dairy products. However, overall food security status in Addis Ababa is not yet alarming, possibly because most households have used their savings to buffer food consumption. It is likely that these savings will not last for much longer, calling for a rapid scale-up of existing support programs. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; food security; nutrition; nutrition security; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; households; incomes; Covid-19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:143&r=all |
| By: | Carlsson, Fredrik (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Kataria, Mitesh (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Lampi, Elina (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Nyberg, Erik (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Sterner, Thomas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | Policy changes could improve health and environmental outcomes by addressing the many externalities and internalities related to food consumption. Using a stated preference approach, we investigate to what extent consumers are willing to make costlier food consumption choices if doing so contributes to decrease environmental externalities, health damages, and animal suffering. We find a considerable willingness to pay for some aspects of the food bought. People are willing to pay an additional 50% for a product if it carries a label declaring that the product meets the highest available standards in terms of healthiness, animal welfare, and antibiotics use, respectively. The willingness to pay for a climate impact label is also sizeable but smaller. We compare a traffic-light label with a plain-text label and a grey-scale label in order to disentangle the effects of introducing labels Our results are mixed, suggesting that a traffic-light label has both normative and cognitive effects on behavior. |
| Keywords: | Food labels; choice experiment; norms; food choice |
| JEL: | Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0784&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Akif, Destek; Muhammad, Shahbaz; Ilyas, Okumus; Shawkat, Hammoudeh; Avik, Sinha |
| Abstract: | This paper re-investigates the time-varying impacts of economic growth on carbon emissions in the G-7 countries over a long history. In doing so, the historical data spanning the period from the 1800s to 2010 (as constructed) for each country is examined using the time-varying cointegration and bootstrap-rolling window estimation approach. Unlike the previous environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) studies, using this methodology gives us avenue to detect more than one, two, or more turning points for the economic growth-carbon emissions nexus. The empirical findings show that the nexus between economic growth and carbon emission seems over a long history to be M-shaped for Canada and the UK; N-shaped for France; inverted N-shaped for Germany; and invertedM-shaped (W-shaped) for Italy, Japan, and the USA. In addition, the possible validity of EKC hypothesis is examined for both the pre-1973 and post-1973 sub-periods. Based on this investigation, we found that an inverted U-shaped is confirmed only for the pre-1973 period in France, Italy, and the USA. These empirical evidences provide new insights to policy makers to improve environmental quality using economic growth as an economic tool for the long run by observing changes in the environmental impact of this growth from year to year. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets curve; Chebyshev time polynomials; Time-varying cointegration; G-7 countries |
| JEL: | Q5 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100514&r=all |
| By: | Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Byambasuren, Tsenguunjav (Cornell University); Chau, Nancy H. (Cornell University); Khanna, Neha (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | Indoor air pollution (IAP)–predominantly from the use of solid fuel for cooking–is a global health threat, particularly for women and young children, and one of the leading causes of infant deaths worldwide in developing countries. We estimate the causal effect of cooking fuel choice on infant mortality in India, focusing on children under five years of age using pooled cross-sectional data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) over the period 1992–2016. To address the potential endogeneity in the relationship between fuel choice and mortality, we instrument for cooking fuel choice using a speed of change in forest cover and ownership status of agricultural land, which induce significant variations in fuel type. We find that cooking fuel choice has a statistically significant impact on under-five and neonatal mortality, raising the mortality risk by 4.9 percent. We also find that the past literature has overestimated the association between under-five mortality and polluting fuel use by about 0.6 percentage points or equivalently, 152,000 deaths per year nationally. Our result is robust to a set of alternative specifications with the inclusion of various controls and different estimation strategies. |
| Keywords: | cooking fuel, indoor air pollution, infant mortality, India |
| JEL: | I18 N35 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13295&r=all |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE & IMERA, Marseille, France); Giorgio Fabbri (Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP, GAEL, 38000 Grenoble); Salvatore Federico (Universita degli Studi di Siena, Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica, Siena, Italy); Fausto Gozzi (Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli, Rome, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the theory of spatial externalities. In particular, we depart in several respects from the important literature studying the fundamental pollution free riding problem uncovered in the associated empirical works. First, instead of assuming ad hoc pollution diffusion schemes across space, we consider a realistic spatiotemporal law of motion for air and water pollution (diffusion and advection). Second, we tackle spatiotemporal non-cooperative (and cooperative) differential games. Precisely, we consider a circle partitioned into several states where a local authority decides autonomously about its investment, production and depollution strategies over time knowing that investment/production generates pollution, and pollution is transboundary. The time horizon is infinite. Third, we allow for a rich set of geographic heterogeneities across states while the literature assumes identical states. We solve analytically the induced non-cooperative differential game under decentralization and fully characterize the resulting long-term spatial distributions. We further provide with full exploration of the free riding problem, reflected in the so-called border effects. In particular, net pollution flows diffuse at an increasing rate as we approach the borders, with strong asymmetries under advection, and structural breaks show up at the borders. We also build a formal case in which a larger number of states goes with the exacerbation of pollution externalities. Finally, we explore how geographic discrepancies affect the shape of the border effects. |
| Keywords: | spatial externalities, environmental federalism, transboundary pollution, differential games in continuous time and space, infinite dimensional optimal control problems |
| JEL: | Q53 R12 O13 C72 C61 O44 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2018&r=all |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Ecole Centrale de Marseille, France. Corresponding member, IRES, UCLouvain, Belgium.); Giorgio Fabbri (Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP, GAEL); Salvatore Federico (Università degli Studi di Siena, Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica); Fausto Gozzi (Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli, Roma) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the theory of spatial externalities. In particular, we depart in several respects from the important literature studying the fundamental pollution free riding problem uncovered in the associated empirical works. First, instead of assuming ad hoc pollution diffusion schemes across space, we consider a realistic spatiotemporal law of motion for air and water pollution (diffusion and advection). Second, we tackle spatiotemporal non-cooperative (and cooperative) differential games. Precisely, we consider a circle partitioned into several states where a local authority decides autonomously about its investment, production and depollution strategies over time knowing that investment/production generates pollution, and pollution is transboundary. The time horizon is infinite. Third, we allow for a rich set of geographic heterogeneities across states while the literature assumes identical states. We solve analytically the induced non-cooperative differential game under decentralization and fully characterize the resulting long-term spatial distributions. We further provide with full exploration of the free riding problem, reflected in the so-called border effects. In particular, net pollution flows diffuse at an increasing rate as we approach the borders, with strong asymmetries under advection, and structural breaks show up at the borders. We also build a formal case in which a larger number of states goes with the exacerbation of pollution externalities. Finally, we explore how geographic discrepancies affect the shape of the border effects. |
| Keywords: | Spatial externalities, environmental federalism, transboundary pollution, differential games in continuous time and space, infinite dimensional optimal control problems |
| JEL: | Q53 R12 O13 C72 C61 O44 |
| Date: | 2020–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020017&r=all |
| By: | Benin, Samuel |
| Abstract: | When African leaders launched the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP) in Maputo in 2003, they committed to spend 10 percent of their national expenditure budget on the agricultural sector. This commitment, popularly known as the Maputo Declaration, was designed in pursuit of a 6 percent agricultural growth rate each year. The African Union (AU) developed a guidance note on the measure to use to track progress in the commitment on government agriculture expenditure (GAE). The measure is based on the classification of the functions of government (COFOG), and the definition of GAE as the expenses of the government sector on agriculture—crops, livestock, forestry, and fishing and hunting (AU-NEPAD 2015). Specifically, the measure is the share of GAE in government total expenditure (GTE), which is GAE*100/GTE. Two recent agricultural public expenditure reviews (agPERs) conducted in Ghana show expenditure shares that are overestimated for measuring progress toward the Maputo 10 percent target, ranging from 6.5 to 21.2 percent in 2001–2011 (MOFA 2013) and from 5.8 to 7.5 percent in 2012–2015 (MOFA 2017). This is because the studies used concepts like “COFOG-plus†or “enhanced-COFOG†to include expenditures that are not meant to be included according to the AU guidance note. One example of this discrepancy is that the studies included government expenditures on feeder roads in GAE, although feeder roads promote socioeconomic development of entire rural communities and not just the agricultural sector. Also, expenditures of the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) were included in GAE, even though Cocobod, although responsible for the management and development of the cocoa subsector, is not part of the government sector. It is a public corporation that engages in market-based production activities financed entirely by the cocoa subsector that it serves, and there is no transfer from taxpayers through the Cocobod to the entire agricultural sector.2 Along with these inconsistencies with the official AU guidance note, the estimates and analyses in the two agPER studies mask the relatively low government expenditure in the noncocoa subsector, and may undermine efforts to boost provision of public goods and services in this subsector, which accounts for about 90 percent of Ghana’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). The cocoa subsector accounts for the remaining 10 percent of agricultural GDP. |
| Keywords: | GHANA, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, government expenditure, agricultural policies, agricultural development, Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:31&r=all |
| By: | Anand, Mohit; Miao, Ruiqing; Khanna, Madhu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the interaction of crop insurance and contracts in improving the risk management of farmers who produce bioenergy crops. Numerical simulation is conducted for 1,919 U.S. counties east of the 100th Meridian that have yield data for corn and for at least one bioenergy crop yield of miscanthus and switchgrass. County-level yield data, both on low quality land and high quality land, are simulated by using DayCent model, and Copula approach is used to estimate a joint yield-price distribution for each county. We model a representative farmers’ optimal choice problem of whether to use their land to grow conventional crops or to use their land for production of bioenergy crops under one of three different contract choices offered by the biorefinery. The terms of these contracts are determined in such a manner that they jointly maximize the net benefits of the refinery and farmers. We do this joint optimization in two scenarios: ‘With insurance’ and ‘Without insurance’ for bioenergy crops to see how presence of crop insurance for bioenergy crops will affect the optimal contract design and will affect land allocation under a certain contract type. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:303744&r=all |
| By: | Malan B. Benoit (Department of Economics University of Cocody Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper was to examine how coffee-processing firms influence the farm gate price on the domestic coffee market in Côte d’Ivoire. Two formalized models were constructed to study this domestic market. The models dealt with the interaction between its various players, the setting of the farm gate price and the performance of the current organizational structure of the industry (including the vertical integration of the coffee-processing firm), in comparison with an alternative organizational structure without vertical integration. The results of the study show that, under certain conditions, the vertical integration of the coffee-processing firms leads to an increase in the farm gate price on the world market for semi-processed coffee. The study also shows that the relative efficiency of the exporter cooperative (that is, its ability to attract new members) causes private firms to offer a high farm gate price |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:260&r=all |
| By: | Florin Mihai (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași [Romania]); Adrian Grozavu (Université Alexandru Ioan Cuza de Iasi - Faculté de Géographie et Géologie, Département de Géographie) |
| Abstract: | The exposure of rural communities to illegal waste dumping practices associated with the lack of or poor waste collection schemes prior to the closure of rural dumpsites under EU regulations and the role of collection efficiency afterward in reducing this critical environmental threat constitutes a key issue in rural Romania. The present study reveals huge amounts of household uncollected waste released into the natural environment outside the official statistics of rural dumpsites. Despite the expansion of waste collection coverage towards rural areas since 2010, the problem of illegal dumping practice is difficult to solve. The improvement of collection efficiency, better law enforcement, and surveillance of environmental authorities coupled with educational and environmental awareness are necessary steps to combat this bad practice. A circular economy paradigm must be enacted in rural regions through separate collection schemes and to improve cost-efficient alternatives, such as home composting, and traditional and creative reuse practices, particularly in less developed regions |
| Keywords: | circular economy,Circular economy CE,recycling,environment,rural area,waste management,pollution |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02561076&r=all |
| By: | Adam B. Elhiraika; Sayed A. Ahmed (Department of Economics University of Swaziland) |
| Abstract: | This study uses survey data to examine the operations of the agrarian credit market, formal and informal, in Sudan under conditions of recent economic liberalization and Islamization; the latter does not allow interest rate fixing. In addition to descriptive analysis, the study specifies and estimates a model of farm household participation in the credit market. The survey results show a substantial increase in formal borrowing in agriculture, but relatively low informal credit. Implicit interest rates are found to be high in the formal segment compared with their previous levels, and the levels of formal and informal agrarian rates of interest are comparable. The research concludes that there is a need for enhanced institutional financial intermediation in the agrarian credit market as well as scope for the promotion of savings and credit associations among farmers |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:79&r=all |
| By: | Marek Kwas; Alessia Paccagnini; Michal Rubaszek |
| Abstract: | This article investigates what determines the price dynamics of the main cereals: barley, maize, rice and wheat. Using an extensive dataset of monthly time series covering the years 1980 - 2019, we extract four different common factors explaining the dynamics of commodity prices, exchange rates, financial and macroeconomic indicators. Next, we examine whether these factors are useful in explaining the movements of cereal prices. We show that models incorporating all four factors outperform significantly the naive random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting competition, especially for longer horizons. However, they have only marginally better performance than a simpler model based on the commodity factor alone. |
| Keywords: | Cereal prices, Forecasting, Factor models, Autoregressive models. |
| JEL: | C32 C53 Q11 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-47&r=all |
| By: | Olivier Damette (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg); Stéphane Goutte (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines) |
| Abstract: | Faced with the global pandemic of Covid-19, we need to better understand the links between meteorological factors, air quality and the virus. In the vein of a recent empirical literature, we reassess the impact of weather factors like temperatures, humidity and air quality indicators on Covid-19 daily cases in China both for Wuhan and Beijing. Using a consistent number of observations (104), we compute, for the first time, correlations but also Granger causality and above all, a spectral analysis using Wavelet methods. Our results go further previous studies and reveal the complexity of the studied relationships when both time and frequency domains are taken into account. Wavelet analysis enables us to go further usual correlations analysis. Though negative humidity impact on Covid-19 cases was expected to be relatively clear regarding previous literature based on correlations, we do not find evidence of such a result. The controversial effect of warmer temperatures on the Covid-19, often difficult to identify or sometimes identified as surprisingly positive, can negatively emerge via Wavelet analysis for some periods only. This result is however clear-cut for the Hubei Province but for the Beijing one. Finally, our results reveal a bi-directional causality between air quality and the number of infected people. Short-run causality from Covid-19 to air quality (better induced air quality) via lockdown policies disappear in a medium-run and turns to become a significant causal link from induced air quality improvement to Covid-19 daily cases (reduction of infected people). |
| Date: | 2020–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02629139&r=all |
| By: | Luisa Corrado (University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy); Roberta Distante (University of Copenhagen & Nordea, Denmark); Majlinda Joxhe (CREA, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We apply a dynamic linear-in-means model to analyze the importance of social ties for the body-weight-related behavior of US youth. Our methodology shows how to estimate peer effects free of the “reflection problem” in a dynamic context where individual- and group-specific unobservable effects are controlled for. Our results show that the main drivers for the body-weight-related behavior are past and peer effects. For individuals who were normal-weight or obese during adolescence, past and peer effects are shown to be both relevant. Peer effects, instead, explain more the variation in the BMI for individuals who were over-weight during adolescence, showing in this way the importance of social interactions for body-weight-related behavior. |
| Keywords: | Over-weight, Obesity, Peer Effects, Social Networks, Personal History, Dynamic Linear-in-means Model |
| JEL: | C01 D10 D71 I19 J11 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:19-06&r=all |
| By: | Nina Boberg-Fazlic (University of Southern Denmark); Markus Lampe (WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, CEPR); Pablo Martinelli Lasheras (Universidad Carlos III Madrid); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR) |
| Abstract: | There is a vast literature on the effects of land inequality and agrarian reforms, but little on the origins of this inequality. We exploit a new and unique parish-level database of land inequality in Denmark, from 1682 to 1895, during which period there was comprehensive land reform and enclosure. We demonstrate that inequality increased after land reform in areas with more productive land, measured using contemporary tax assessments. We instrument for land quality using glacial and post glacial sediment soil types. We propose a mechanism whereby agrarian reforms allowed areas with better soil quality to realize greater productivity gains. Malthusian mechanisms and internal migration then led to greater population increases in more fertile areas, leading to a larger share of smallholders and landless laborers. We present evidence for this mechanism in part from population density revealed by censuses. After the reforms, the geographical pattern of inequality remained strikingly constant, although population and inequality continued to grow throughout the nineteenth century. |
| Keywords: | Denmark, enclosures, land inequality |
| JEL: | O13 N53 Q15 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0178&r=all |
| By: | Singh, Bhanu Pratap |
| Abstract: | ‘They will go to die there, where there is life ’. COVID-19 lockdown flooded streets with migrant labourers which were marching to their villages to find warmth and empathy. Many reached their homes but several failed and died on streets and railway tracks. The current study offers insights on the plight of migrant labourers and impact of COVID-19 on rural economy in India. The major finding of the study suggests 400 million workers in India in the informal economy are at the risk of falling deeper into poverty during the crisis. The low reporting of COVID-19 cases due to low testing will result in community spread. The reverse migration will create excess pressure on the agriculture and rural economy which will result in a significant number of people to fall into abject poverty. COVID-19 will have both short and long-run effect on the rural economy in India. The government economic package contains majorly long-term measures whereas short-term measures such as cash incentive and wage subsidy should be given to save migrant labourer and marginal farmers. Above all, mass corruption in the system is the biggest challenge in the effective implementation of plans. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Migrant Labourers, Agriculture, Rural Economy |
| JEL: | J61 J78 O15 O53 P25 P46 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100530&r=all |
| By: | Bonnet, Céline; Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra; Klein, Gordon |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the strategic role of the recent introduction of national brand products by hard discounters in the French market and its impact both at the retail and manufacturer levels. We use a structural econometric model of vertical relationships that takes into account the competition between both mainstream retailers and hard discounters, and between national brands and private labels. We apply this model to the French dairy dessert market, which is characterized by a high penetration of private labels and a high concentration at the manufacturer and retail levels. Using a counterfactual analysis, we show that the introduction of national brands by hard discounters does not only act as means to attract different consumer groups and extend their market share. In addition and even maybe more important, we also show that the introduction of national brands by hard discounters serves as a means to improve their bargaining positioning with respect to their private label providers. |
| Keywords: | Structural Model,Counterfactual Analysis,Hard Discount,The Role of Private Labels and National Brands |
| JEL: | L11 L25 L81 M31 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cawmdp:113&r=all |
| By: | Paolo Melindi-Ghidi (Corresponding author. ECONOMIX, Université Paris-Nanterre and AMSE, Aix-Marseille University); Tom Dedeurwaerdere (FNRS & BIOGOV Unit, Université Catholique de Louvain and FNRS, Belgium); Giorgio Fabbri (GAEL - CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP, Univ. Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Intermediary organisations have increasingly played a role in payments for agri-environment services across Europe over the last two decades. However, the economics literature has so far not examined the impact of this new governance mechanism on environmental protection and on individuals' behaviour. We develop a new theoretical economic framework to compare an incentive mechanism using intermediaries, such as environmental knowledge brokers and information providers, with a standard central governance mechanism, in terms of environmental impact. We show that the emergence of knowledge intermediaries is particularly effective where farmers initially have low environmental awareness, or when the public institution organizing the scheme is insufficiently aware of individuals' characteristics. Our findings provide theoretical support for previous empirical results on payment schemes for agri-environment measures. |
| Keywords: | Knowledge Brokers, Intermediaries, Pro-environmental Culture, Agri-environment Measures, Cultural Transmission, Principal-agent |
| JEL: | Q51 Q58 Z19 |
| Date: | 2020–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020013&r=all |
| By: | Mountford, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Why has the recent covid-19 pandemic led to the imposition of export quotas in many countries? Why is the agricultural sector highly protected in developed economies? We show how the addition of subsistence constraints to the standard models of international trade together with a potential shock to trade offers a simple explanation of these facts. This simple adaption of the standard trade model also provides a new mechanism for the existence of a ’Transfer Paradox’. A transfer of resources prior to production acts as a kind of ex ante insurance against trade disruption which mitigates the effects of the missing market for trade disruption insurance. The effect of a transfer can be large enough that both the donor and recipient benefit. Although the analysis focuses on agricultural goods it applies to any good or technology regarded as essential for production. |
| Keywords: | International Trade , Income Distribution, Growth and Development |
| JEL: | F11 F43 O43 |
| Date: | 2020–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100774&r=all |
| By: | Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau; Rabindra Nepal; Joaquin L. Vespignani; Maria Yanotti |
| Abstract: | The recent environmental challenges in Africa that emanated from global warming, human activity, limited access to electricity and overexploitation of natural resources have contributed to the growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the region. This paper empirically investigates the moderating role of green energy consumption and energy innovation in the environmental Kuznets curve for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region using data spanning from 1980 to 2018. Our threshold model found that at least 54 percent of the population needs access to energy innovation before the region could be safe from environmental degradation. We conclude that investment in green energy, energy innovation and conservation of natural resources will help to mitigate environmental degradation in SSA in the long run. Policies should be targeted towards encouraging the consumption of green energy, and more investment in energy innovation beyond the estimated threshold will save the region from pollution and its implications. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve; Green energy; Energy innovation; CO2 emission; SSA countries; Quantile-Quantile regression |
| JEL: | E10 C20 Q40 |
| Date: | 2020–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:88092&r=all |
| By: | Michel Beine (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); Lionel Jeusette (CREA, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this pa- per, we conduct a meta-analysis in order to investigate the role of the methodological choices of these empirical studies in finding some particular results concerning the role of climatic factors as drivers of human mobility. We code 51 papers representative of the literature in terms of methodological approaches. This results in the coding of more than 85 variables capturing the methodology of the main dimensions of the analysis at the regression level. These dimensions include authors’ reputation, type of mobility, measures of mobility, type of data, context of the study, econometric methods and last but not least measures of the climatic factors. We look at the influence of these characteristics on the probability of finding any effect of climate change, of find- ing a displacement effect, of finding an increase in immobility and of finding evidence in favour of a direct versus an indirect effect. Our results highlight the role of some important methodological choices, such as the frequency of the data on mobility, the level of development, the measures of human mobility and of the climatic factors as well as the econometric methodology. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Human mobility; Econometric regressions; Meta-analysis. |
| JEL: | C83 F22 J61 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:19-10&r=all |