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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2014‒06‒22
forty-four papers chosen by |
| By: | Thornton, Philip K.; Lipper, Leslie |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to identify how climate change affects how we should approach the process of transforming agricultural systems (including crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry) to support global food security and poverty reduction in a sustainable way. We also identify implications for FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) and CGIAR priorities. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, evaluation, food security, Poverty, Nutrition, economic growth, Agricultural development, Agricultural policies, Climate-smart agriculture, Adaptation, Mitigation, agricultural transformation, monitoring, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1340&r=agr |
| By: | Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Jayne, T.S. |
| Abstract: | Despite Zambia’s sustained and fairly robust agricultural growth since 2000, rural poverty levels have remained at about 80% over the past 15 years. Because over 70% of Zambia’s agricultural households are small-scale farmers cultivating less than two hectares of land, they must effectively contribute to agricultural growth if the process of growth is to be broadly based in Zambia. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:171876&r=agr |
| By: | Taneja, Garima; Pal, Barun Deb; Joshi, Pramod Kumar; Aggarwal, Pramod; Tyagi, N.K. |
| Abstract: | This study was undertaken to assess farmers’ preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for various climate-smart interventions in the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The research outputs will be helpful in integrating farmers’ choices with government programs in the selected regions. The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) was selected because it is highly vulnerable to climate change, which may adversely affect the sustainability of the rice-wheat production system and the food security of the region. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change and improve the efficiency of the rice-wheat-based production system. CSA requires a complete package of practices to achieve the desired objectives, but adoption is largely dependent on farmers’ preferences and their capacity and WTP. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, food security, Agricultural technology, Willingness to pay, Climate-smart agriculture, scoring method, bidding method, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1337&r=agr |
| By: | Kuteya, Auckland N.; Sitko, Nicholas J. |
| Abstract: | From 2010 through 2012 harvest seasons, Zambian farmers produced three consecutive maize bumper harvests. The total maize production during this period was 8.6 million metric tonness, of which 4.6 million metric tonnes was a marketable surplus (CSO/MAL various years). This far exceeded the national maize consumption requirement. In an effort to prevent producer price collapse in the wake of these historic harvests, the Government’s Food Reserve Agency (FRA) was mandated to purchase approximately 80% or 3.7 million metric tonnes of the available surplus. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing, Political Economy, |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:171877&r=agr |
| By: | Kabunga, Nassul Ssentamu; Ghosh, Shibani; Griffiths, Jeffrey K. |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to empirically infer potential causal linkages between fruit and vegetable (F&V) production, individual F&V intake, household food security, and anemia levels for individual women caregivers of childbearing age. |
| Keywords: | Fruits, Vegetables, Diet, Gender, Women, food security, households, malnutrition, hemoglobin, anemia, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1346&r=agr |
| By: | Yang, Jin; Wang, Hui; Jin, Songqing; Chen, Kevin Z.; Riedinger, Jeffrey; Chao, Peng |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of local off-farm employment and migration on rural households’ technical efficiency of crop production using a five-year panel dataset from more than 2,000 households in five Chinese provinces. While there is not much debate about the positive contribution of migration and local off-farm employment to China’s economy, there is an increasing concern about the potential negative effects of moving labor away from agriculture on China’s future food security. This is a critical issue as maintaining self-sufficiency in grain production will be critical for China to feed its huge population in the future. |
| Keywords: | Migration, labor, cereals, food security, Efficiency, local off-farm, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1338&r=agr |
| By: | Ngoma, Hambulo; Mulenga, Brian P.; Jayne, T.S. |
| Abstract: | Conservation farming (CF) practices are widely considered to be important components of sustainable agricultural development in Sub-Saharan Africa because of their potential to raise farm productivity and incomes while maintaining or improving soil quality and reducing vulnerability to variable climatic conditions. CF in Zambia can be traced to the 1980s when government, private sector, and donor communities started promoting CF as an alternative set of agronomic practices for Zambian smallholders (Haggblade and Tembo 2003). |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:171875&r=agr |
| By: | Goeb, Joseph |
| Abstract: | In Zambia, as in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, rural poverty, food security, and farming are inextricably linked. While the livelihoods of nearly two thirds of Zambia’s population depend directly on their agricultural productivity, average yields have historically been low and soil fertility has been diminishing. Conservation Farming (CF) has shown promise of being a solution to these challenges after several years of adoption, yet the short-term yield effects are more variable. A better understanding of the immediate yield effects and their profitability relative to other techniques is necessary to determine if CF adoption is an effective and feasible way to increase agricultural productivity while sustainably building soil fertility. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:171872&r=agr |
| By: | Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda; Abdulai, Awudu |
| Abstract: | In the late 1990s, several governments in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) embarked on various market reforms to improve commodity market performance. The success of such market reforms depends partly on the strength of the transmission of price signals between spatially separated markets and between different levels of commodity value chains. This study takes a look at these issues through an analysis of coffee producer prices for Zambia and Tanzania. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:171870&r=agr |
| By: | Hoddinott, John F.; Sandström, Susanna; Upton, Joanna |
| Abstract: | There is little rigorous evidence on the comparative impacts of cash and food transfers on food security and food-related outcomes. We assess the relative impacts of receiving cash versus food transfers using a randomized design. Drawing on data collected in eastern Niger, we find that households randomized to receive a food basket experienced larger, positive impacts on measures of food consumption and diet quality than those receiving the cash transfer. |
| Keywords: | food security, social policies, Nutrition, cash transfers, social protection, social safety nets, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1341&r=agr |
| By: | Wen Wang; Yuebin Lin; Liping Guo; Yingchun Li; Man Su; Christian de Perthuis; Xiaotang Ju; Erda Lin; Dominic Moran |
| Abstract: | China faces significant challenges in reconciling food security goals with the objective of becoming a low-carbon economy. Agriculture accounts for approximately 11% of China's national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with cereal production representing a large proportion (about 32%) of agricultural emissions. Minimizing emissions per unit of product is a policy objective and we estimated the GHG intensities (GHGI) of rice, wheat and maize production in China from 1985 to 2010. Results show significant variations of GHGIs among Chinese provinces and regions. Relative to wheat and maize, GHGI of rice production is much higher owing to CH4 emissions, and is more closely related to yield levels. In general, the south and central has been the most carbon intensive region in rice production while the GHGI of wheat production is highest in north and northwest provinces. The southwest has been characterized by the highest maize GHGI but the lowest rice GHGI. Compared to the baseline scenario, a 2% annual reduction in N inputs, combined with improved water management in rice paddies, will mitigate 17% of total GHG emissions from cereal production in 2020 while sustaining the required yield increase to ensure food security. Better management practices will entail additional gains in soil organic carbon further decreasing GHGI. To realize the full mitigation potential while maximizing agriculture development, the design of appropriate policies should accommodate local conditions. |
| Keywords: | food security, low-carbon agriculture, greenhouse gas intensity, China |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1409&r=agr |
| By: | Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Jayne, T. S. |
| Abstract: | Economists have long held that broad-based agricultural growth is the most powerful source of poverty reduction in developing countries where most of the rural population is engaged in agriculture (Johnston and Mellor 1961; Mellor 1974; Lipton 2006). However, in Zambia’s case, despite sustained and fairly robust agricultural growth since 2000, rural poverty levels have remained at about 80% over the past 15 years. This indicates that productivity in the agricultural sector needs to be increased, especially considering that no country, apart from the island economies of Singapore and Hong Kong, has been able to sustain rapid transition out of poverty without raising the productivity in its agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:171873&r=agr |
| By: | Nelson, Gerald C.; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | There is widespread agreement that our ability to deliver sustainable food security for all will be challenged in three dimensions—population growth, constrained natural resources, and climate change. Investments in agricultural productivity are essential to dealing with these challenges. This suggests that cooperation across these two sets of institutions (FAO and the CGIAR) to take advantage of their expertise could result in better understanding for all. At the same time, neither of these institutions has some of the expertise badly needed to assess the coming food security challenges, so cooperation should extend to a range of research organizations. The paper highlights three types of joint activities—cooperative quantitative modeling, cooperative use of institutional and outside substantive expertise, and sustained cooperation with model intercomparison efforts. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Agricultural research, Public sector, Sustainability, food security, Population growth, productivity, Agricultural growth, scenario analysis, priorities, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1339&r=agr |
| By: | Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon and Jonah Busch |
| Abstract: | We have constructed a comprehensive database of 117 spatially explicit econometric studies of deforestation published in peer-reviewed academic journals from 1996-2013. We present a meta-analysis of what drives deforestation and what stops it, based on the signs and significance of 5909 coefficients in 554 multivariate analyses. We find that forests are more likely to be cleared where economic returns to agriculture and pasture are higher, either due to more favorable climatological and topographic conditions, or due to lower costs of clearing forest and transporting products to market. Timber activity, land tenure security, and community demographics do not show a consistent association with either higher or lower deforestation. Population is consistently associated with greater deforestation, and poverty is consistently associated with lower deforestation, but in both cases endogeneity makes a causal link difficult to infer. Promising approaches for stopping deforestation include reducing the intrusion of road networks into remote forested areas; targeting protected areas to regions where forests face higher threat; tying rural income support to the maintenance of forest resources through payments for ecosystem services; and insulating the forest frontier from the price effects of demand for agricultural commodities. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, climate change, drivers of deforestation, land-use change, land tenure, payment for ecosystem services, protected areas, REDD+, timber, von Thunen. |
| JEL: | Q15 Q23 Q24 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:361&r=agr |
| By: | Ribaudo, Marc; Savage, Jeffrey; Aillery, Marcel |
| Abstract: | In 2010, a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) was established for the Chesapeake Bay, defining the limits on emissions of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment necessary to reverse declines in the Bay’s quality and associated biological resources. Agriculture is the largest single source of nutrients and sediment in the watershed. We use data on crop and animal agriculture in the watershed to assess the relative effectiveness of alternative policy approaches for achieving the nutrient and sediment reduction goals of the TMDL, ranging from voluntary financial incentives to regulations. The cost of achieving water quality goals depends heavily on which policy choices are selected and how they are implemented. We found that policies that provide incentives for water quality improvements are the most efficient, assuming necessary information on pollutant delivery is available for each field. Policies that directly encourage adoption of management systems that protect water quality (referred to as design-based) are the most practical, given the limited information that is generally available to farmers and resource agencies. Information on field characteristics can be used to target design-based policies to improve efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Chesapeake Bay, sediment, manure, water quality, economic incentives, conservation policy, regulation, phosphorus, nitrogen, TMDL, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:171880&r=agr |
| By: | Benson, Todd; Spielman, David J.; Kasa, Leulsegged |
| Abstract: | In 2013 the Bureaus of Agriculture in the regional states of Amhara, Oromia, and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples of Ethiopia supported a program of direct marketing of certified seed by seed producers to farmers across 31 woredas (districts). This program stands in contrast to the dominant procedure for supplying such seed in which farmers register with local agricultural offices or extension agents to purchase seed for the coming cropping season and then receive seed either directly from these local offices or through local cooperatives. The evaluation shows that competition between entrepreneurial seed producers to capture a substantial portion of the market of farmer-customers for their seed to enable their firms to remain in business will propel wider and more effective distribution of new and improved hybrid maize to more and more farmers. |
| Keywords: | Seed markets, Private sector, Hybrids, Hybrid maize, evaluation, Smallholders, seed sector, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1350&r=agr |
| By: | Al-Haboby, Azhr; Breisinger, Clemens; Debowicz, DarÃo; El-Hakim, Abdul Hussein; Ferguson, Jenna; van Rheenen, Teunis; Telleria, Roberto |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the potential effects of achieving the agricultural goals set out in Iraq’s National Development Plan (NDP) 2013–2017 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that raising agricultural productivity in accordance with the NDP may more than double average agricultural growth rates and add an average of 0.7 percent each year to economywide gross domestic product during the duration of the plan. As a consequence, the economy not only diversifies into agriculture, but agricultural growth also lifts growth in the food processing and service sectors. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural development, economic growth, Poverty, Gender, Women, Agricultural policies, Economic development, Agricultural growth, dynamic computable general equilibrium, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1349&r=agr |
| By: | Greijdanus, Auke; Kragt, M.E |
| Abstract: | This report describes four models used to analyse Australian broadacre mixed-grain farm systems. The models that are included in this report are: IMAGINE, STEP, LUSO and APSfarm. For each model, we include a brief description of how they work, their data requirements and model outputs. IMAGINE is a bio-economic model that focuses on the impacts of tree belts on crop yields. The model accounts for the interactions between herbaceous and woody crops in terms of water and nutrient competition. Its financial analysis includes cash flow reporting. The STEP model simulates the transition from one farm system to another (mainly land-use sequence), and gives a full financial analysis of the change. LUSO simulates the impact of diseases, weeds and break crops on crop yields. LUSO reports discounted cash flows for different management strategies. The APSFarm model focuses on operational decisions. It simulates how the allocation of production and factor inputs affect farm business performance and the environment. |
| Keywords: | Bio-economic modeling, Farm systems modelling Grains, Mixed crop-livestock farming, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, C61, Q19, |
| Date: | 2014–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uwauwp:170195&r=agr |
| By: | Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda; Shipekesa, Arthur M. |
| Abstract: | Groundnuts play an integral role in the livelihoods of the majority of the Zambian population, particularly the rural households. The crop is produced by nearly half of the estimated 1.4 million rural smallholder households, making it the second largest, after maize, in terms of production volume and hectares cultivated. Approximately 8.8% of total land cultivated in Zambia is planted to groundnuts. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:171869&r=agr |
| By: | Gardebroek, Cornelis; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Robles, Miguel |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of volatility between the corn, wheat, and soybean markets in the United States. Volatility interactions across markets, if they exist, may lower the effectiveness of diversification strategies to mitigate price risks and should be taken into account when analyzing the pricing behavior of different agricultural commodities. We follow a Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and volatility transmission across these major crops on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. |
| Keywords: | Prices, volatility, agricultural products, Commodities, Markets, volatility transmission, agricultural commodities, Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH), |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1344&r=agr |
| By: | Günther Fink; B. Kelsey Jack; Felix Masiye |
| Abstract: | Small-scale farming remains the primary source of income for a majority of the population in developing countries. While most farmers primarily work on their own fields, off-farm labor is common among small-scale farmers. A growing literature suggests that off-farm labor is not the result of optimal labor allocation, but is instead driven by households’ inability to cover short-term consumption needs with savings or credit. We conduct a field experiment in rural Zambia to investigate the relationship between credit availability and rural labor supply. We find that providing households with access to credit during the growing season substantially alters the allocation of household labor, with households in villages randomly selected for a loan program selling on average 25 percent less off-farm labor. We also find that increased credit availability is associated with higher consumption and increases in local farming wages. Our results suggest that a substantial fraction of rural labor supply is driven by short-term constraints, and that access to credit markets may improve the efficiency of labor allocation overall. |
| JEL: | J22 O16 Q12 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20218&r=agr |
| By: | Been-Lon Chen (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan); Shian-Yu Liao (Department of Economics, National Taiwan University) |
| Abstract: | Many authors have estimated and found that the productivity growth in agriculture was higher than that in non-agriculture in today’s richest countries. Several papers suggested that growth in agricultural productivity was essential for today’s richest countries to take off early. However, few articles noticed that growth in agricultural productivity is critical in driving structural change in today’s richest countries. This paper studies a two-sector neoclassical growth model with subsistence agricultural consumption and shows that growth in agricultural productivity plays a more important role than growth in non-agricultural productivity in governing massive structural change in today’s richest countries. |
| Keywords: | two-sector neoclassical growth model, subsistence agricultural consumption, sectoral productivity growth, structural transformation, sectoral reallocation, shooting algorithm |
| JEL: | O10 O11 O14 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sin:wpaper:14-a007&r=agr |
| By: | Spielman, David J.; Ma, Xingliang |
| Abstract: | The role of intellectual property rights (IPRs) has been extensively debated in the literature on technology transfers and agricultural production in developing countries. However, few studies offer cross-country evidence on how IPRs affect yield growth, for example, by incentivizing private-sector investment in cultivar improvement. We address this knowledge gap by testing technology diffusion patterns for six major crops using a unique dataset for the period 1961–2010 and an Arellano–Bond linear dynamic panel-data estimation approach. Findings indicate that both biological and legal forms of IPRs tend to promote yield gap convergence between developed and developing countries, although effects vary between crops. |
| Keywords: | Technology transfer, Agricultural development, productivity, Developing countries, Intellectual property rights, Diffusion of information, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1345&r=agr |
| By: | Shah, Deepak |
| Abstract: | The study shows that the agricultural exports of India have always been fraught with high fluctuations. In spite of significant production expansions in many agricultural commodities, India’s global agricultural trade has remained at lower ebb. A lack of vision and a directionless agricultural export planning on the part of our policy planners seem to be responsible for this not so-encouraging scenario. However, it is to be further noted that though India’s share for most of the selected commodities in the total Asian and world exports encompassing them fluctuated during the past two decades, a fillip received to their exports in the wake of liberalization of policies also meant encouraging trends. Notwithstanding the dwindling India’s share of world agricultural exports, it is hoped that a regime of liberal trade policy measures will propel this country’s international market share in these commodities in future, in general. And, adoption of such international trade friendly measures is likely to benefit India’s horticultural exports, in particular. Further, though the study shows horticultural exports of India to forge ahead even in the face of wide international price fluctuations and high burgeoning demand for these high value commodities, the development of horticultural products in the country still suffers from several constraints, which are not only general but also crop specific in nature. |
| Keywords: | Liberalization Agricultural Exports India |
| JEL: | Q17 |
| Date: | 2014–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56637&r=agr |
| By: | Li, Man |
| Abstract: | Almost two decades have passed since China first enacted legislation to protect farmland from conversion to nonagricultural use. Yet hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land are still developed to urban area each year, raising the question of whether the legislation is effective in preserving farmland from development. This paper examines the effectiveness of the Basic Farmland Protection Regulation in protecting high-quality farmland from urban development in China in the first decade after it came into effect (1995‒2005). |
| Keywords: | farmland, rural areas, urban development, Land ownership, Land reform, Land use, Land tenure, urban spatial model, non-nested hypothesis test, farmland protection, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1348&r=agr |
| By: | Oeindrila Dube, Omar Garcia-Ponce, and Kevin Thom |
| Abstract: | We examine how commodity price shocks experienced by rural producers affect the drug trade in Mexico. Our analysis exploits exogenous movements in the Mexican maize price stemming from weather conditions in U.S. maize-growing regions, as well as export flows of other major maize producers. Using data on over 2,200 municipios spanning 1990-2010, we show that lower prices differentially increased the cultivation of both marijuana and opium poppies in municipios more climatically suited to growing maize. This increase was accompanied by differentially lower rural wages, suggesting that households planted more drug crops in response to the decreased income generating potential of maize farming. We also found impacts on downstream drug-trade outcomes, including the operations of drug cartels and killings perpetrated by these criminal groups. Our findings demonstrate that maize price changes contributed to the burgeoning drug trade in Mexico, and point to the violent consequences of an expanding drug sector. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, mexico, drug trade |
| JEL: | K42 O13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:355&r=agr |
| By: | Markus Eberhardt; Dietrich Vollrath |
| Abstract: | Using data for 128 countries we document low (high) elasticities of agricultural output with respect to labor in economies within temperate (tropical/highland) climate zones. Adopting a standard model of structural change we show that this technology heterogeneity determines the speed of structural transformation following changes in agricultural productivity and population size. Calibration exercises document shifts in sectoral labor allocation and living standards 2–3 times larger in temperate than in otherwise identical equatorial/highland regions for a given productivity shock. Eliminating technology heterogeneity can account for up to one-fifth of the observed differences in aggregate income per capita across countries. |
| Keywords: | agricultural development, technology heterogeneity, agro-climatic environment, structural change |
| JEL: | O47 O11 C23 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-21&r=agr |
| By: | Grosche, Stephanie; Heckelei, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Presumed portfolio benefits of commodities and the availability of index fund-type investment products increase attractiveness of commodity markets for financial traders. But resulting “index trading” strategies are suspected to inflate commodity prices above their fundamental value. We use a Heterogeneous Agent Model for the corn futures market, which can depict price dynamics from the interaction of fundamentalist commercial traders and chartist speculators, and estimate its parameters with the Method of Simulated Moments. In a scenario-based approach, we introduce index funds and simulate price effects from their inclusion in financial portfolio strategies. Results show that the additional long-only trading volume on the market does not inflate price levels but increases return volatility. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous agents, Agent-based modeling, Commodity index treading, Financialization of commodity markets, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, D84, G15, G17, Q02, |
| Date: | 2014–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubfred:172077&r=agr |
| By: | Jayne, T.S.; Chapoto, A.; Sitko, N.; Muyanga, M.; Nkonde, C.; Chamberlin, J. |
| Abstract: | Even under optimistic assumptions about the rate of urbanization and growth of non-farm employment, agriculture will still be the main source of livelihood for the majority of Africans for at least the next several decades (Losch 2012). Non-farm wage jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to absorb between 40 to 65 percent of the additional 122 million workers estimated to enter the labor force before 2020 (Fine et al. 2012). This means that farming will be called upon to provide gainful employment for at least a third of young Africans entering the labor force till at least 2025. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Financial Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Labor and Human Capital, |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midips:171878&r=agr |
| By: | Shah, Deepak |
| Abstract: | The study shows that in spite of India’s dependence on import trade of butter, ghee from cow milk, cheese and curd animal fats, etc. has come down sharply over the past two decades in the face of rise in export trade in the same, the trade balance of India in these products remains negative due to higher value associated with imports as against export. India, therefore, faces significant threat in the case of import trade of some of the dairy products like butter, ghee, cheese and curd, animal fats and some other livestock based products like hides and skins. Further, consequent upon cheap imports and absence of adequate protection measures, safeguarding income and livelihood of poor farmers have emerged issues that need to be addressed by policy makers. As for scope for the expansion of Indian dairy industry in new liberalized trade regime is concerned, Indian dairy sector would be competitive only if the export subsidies on dairy products are abolished. In more relaxed market environment, the real challenge posed before Indian livestock sector would be in terms of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS), Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and animal welfare related issues. With a view to meet these requirements - both domestically and in the world markets - modernization of supply chain encompassing producer as well as consumer is the need of the hour. India is already price competitive in the world market and when subsidies from competitive producers like USA and EU countries are removed, the situation will make India more price competitive. |
| Keywords: | Trade India Livestock Products WTO |
| JEL: | Q17 |
| Date: | 2014–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56636&r=agr |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | First, this paper shows that rice varietal development in Nigeria has been lagging behind that of other developing countries in Asia and Latin America, due partly to insufficient investment in domestic rice R&D. The paper then illustrates using a household model simulation that impacts of certain policies, such as the seed subsidy, may be greater (smaller) if they are applied to good (poor) varieties. The paper concludes by discussing key policy implications and future research needs. |
| Keywords: | rice, Research, Agricultural research, seed policies, seed sector, household model, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1343&r=agr |
| By: | Alderman, Harold |
| Abstract: | Malnutrition can best be addressed by a combination of nutrition specific interventions and nutrition sensitive programs, including social protection. This study reviews mechanisms of transfer program in order to better design nutrition sensitive social protection. Social protection programs typically increase income as well as influence the timing and, to a degree, control of this income. Additionally, social protection programs may achieve further impact on nutrition by fostering linkages with health services or with sanitation programs, and specifically through activities that are related to nutrition education or micronutrient supplementation. This paper discusses what might be expected from such programs and reviews some of the evidence from specific transfer programs. |
| Keywords: | food security, social policies, Nutrition, resilience, cash transfers, social protection, social safety nets, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1342&r=agr |
| By: | Dinar, Shlomi; Katz, David; De Stefano, Lucia; Blankespoor, Brian |
| Abstract: | Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mechanisms and institutional designs help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. The analysis specifically focuses on identifying which water allocation mechanisms and institutional features provide better opportunities for mitigating conflict given that water allocation issues tend to be most salient among riparians. Water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database are used as the dependent variable to test hypotheses regarding the viability, or resilience, of treaties over time. Climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948-2001 with the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to the primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms are more important than others. |
| Keywords: | Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Water and Industry,Common Property Resource Development,Water Supply and Systems,Town Water Supply and Sanitation |
| Date: | 2014–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6916&r=agr |
| By: | Shah, Deepak |
| Abstract: | The present study makes a comprehensive attempt to estimate the dimension of losses occurring during the pre- and post harvest stages of pigeon pea among pulses cultivated in the state of Maharashtra. The study showed about 14-18 per cent of the total production of pigeon pea as lost on account of pre-harvest, harvest and post-harvest operations. Such high magnitude of loss of crop production is certainly a matter of great concern. Therefore, efforts need to be initiated to curb such losses by adopting appropriate measures. It is expected that measures and programme initiatives such as adoption of improved pre- and post-harvest technology and water and paste control practices will not only increase the productivity of individual crops and their quality but these are also likely to substantially minimize the post-harvest losses, increase the total crop area cover and generate adequate quality surplus for their conversion into value-added food products. |
| Keywords: | Pre Post Harvest Losses Pigeonpea Maharashtra |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2014–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56634&r=agr |
| By: | Doss, Cheryl; Kim, Sung Mi; Njuki, Jemimah; Hillenbrand, Emily; Miruka, Maureen |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the relationship of women’s individual and joint property ownership and the level of women’s input into household decisionmaking is explored with data from India, Mali, Malawi, and Tanzania. In the three African countries, women with individual landownership have greater input into household decisionmaking than women whose landownership is joint; both have more input than women who are not landowners. |
| Keywords: | Property rights, Land, Gender, Women, Decision making, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1347&r=agr |
| By: | Stefano Bosi; David Desmarchelier; Lionel Ragot |
| Abstract: | Some recent empirical contributions have pointed out a significant negative impact of pollution on labor supply. These impacts have been largely ignored in the theoretical literature, which, instead, focused on the case of pollution effects on consumption demand. In this paper, we study the short and long-run effects of pollution in a Ramsey model where pollution and labor supply are nonseparable arguments in households’ preferences. We determine sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of a longterm equilibrium and we show how large (negative) effects of pollution on labor supply may promotes macroeconomic volatility (deterministic cycles near the steady state) through a flip bifurcation. |
| Keywords: | pollution, endogenous labor supply, Ramsey model. |
| JEL: | E32 O44 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2014-34&r=agr |
| By: | Marielle Brunette (INRA - INRA Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière - INRA); Jérôme Foncel (Université Lille 3 - Université Lille 3 - université Lille 3); Eric Nazindigouba Kéré (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the forest owner's attitude towards risk and the harvesting decision in several ways. First, we propose to characterize and quantify the forest owner's attitude towards risk. Second, we analyze the determinants of the forest owner's risk attitude. Finally, we determine the impact of the forest owner's risk attitude on the harvesting decision. The French forest owner's risk attitude is tackled by implementing a questionnaire, including a context-free measure borrowed from experimental economics. The determinants of the forest owner's risk attitude and harvesting decision are estimated through a recursive bivariate ordered probit model. We show that French forest owners are characterized by a relative risk aversion coefficient close to 1. In addition, we found that the forest owner's risk aversion is influenced positively and significantly by gender (female), age, and willingness to protect the environment, while the percentage of forest income in the total patrimony of the forest owner has a negative effect. Finally, we obtain that the forest owner's risk aversion positively and significantly impacts the harvesting decision. |
| Keywords: | Forest owner's risk attitude; Risk aversion; Harvesting decision. |
| Date: | 2014–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01005200&r=agr |
| By: | Martin Dufwenberg; Gunnar Köhlin; Peter Martinsson; Haileselassie Medhin |
| Abstract: | Land conflicts in developing countries are costly. An important policy goal is to create respect for borders. This often involves mandatory, expensive interventions. We propose a new policy design, which in theory promotes neighborly relations at low cost. A salient feature is the option to by-pass regulation through consensus. The key idea combines the insight that social preferences transform social dilemmas into coordination problems with the logic of forward induction. As a first, low-cost pass at empirical evaluation, we conduct an experiment among farmers in the Ethiopian highlands, a region exhibiting features typical of countries where borders are often disputed. Our results suggest that a low-cost land delimitation based on neighborly recognition of borders could deliver a desired low-conflict situation if accompanied by an optional higher cost demarcation process. Keywords: Conflict, land-conflict game, social preferences, forward induction, Ethiopia, experiment, land reform JEL codes: C78; C93; D63; Q15 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:519&r=agr |
| By: | Alessandro Chieppa; Andrea Ricca; Gianluca Rosso |
| Abstract: | Climate extreme events are constantly increasing. What is the effect of these potentially catastrophic events on insurance demand in Italy, with particular reference to the economic activities? Extreme precipitation events over most of the midlatitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent by the end of this century, as global mean surface temperature increases. If we look to Italy, examination of the precipitation time series shows a sensitive and highly significant decrease in the total number of precipitation events in Italy, with a trend of events intense dissimilar as regards to low and high intensity, with a decline of firsts and an increase of seconds. The risk related to hydrological natural disasters is in Italy one of the most important problem for both damage and number of victims. How evolves the ability to pay for damages, with a view to safeguarding work and economic activities, and employment protection? |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1406.4114&r=agr |
| By: | Samuel J. Peter; J. C. de Ara\'ujo; N. A. M. Ara\'ujo; H. J. Herrmann |
| Abstract: | This study investigates flood avalanches in a dense reservoir network in the semiarid north-eastern Brazil. The population living in this area strongly depends on the availability of the water from this network. Water is stored during intense wet-season rainfall events and evaporates from the reservoir surface during the dry season. These seasonal changes are the driving forces behind the water dynamics in the network. The reservoir network and its connectivity properties during flood avalanches are investigated with a model called ResNetM, which simulates each reservoir explicitly. It runs on the basis of daily calculated water balances for each reservoir. A spilling reservoir contributes with water to the reservoir downstream, which can trigger avalanches affecting, in some cases, large fractions of the network. The main focus is on the study of the relation between the total amount of water stored and the largest observable cluster of connected reservoirs that overspill in the same day. It is shown that the thousands of small and middle-sized reservoirs are eminent for the retention of water upstream the large ones. Therefore, they prevent large clusters at a low level of water. Concerning connectivity measures, the actual reservoir network, which evolved without an integrated plan, performed better (i.e., generated smaller avalanches for similar amount of stored water) than numerous stochastically generated artificial reservoir networks on the same river network. |
| Keywords: | Scale-free network, Flood propagation, Connectivity |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stz:wpaper:eth-rc-14-007&r=agr |
| By: | Elena Gross (University of Bayreuth); Isabel Günther (ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | 70 percent of the rural population in sub-Saharan Africa does not use adequate sanitation facilities. In rural Benin, as much as 95 percent of the population has no access to improved sanitation. This paper explores why households remain without latrines analyzing a representative sample of 2000 rural households. Our results show that wealth and latrine prices play the most decisive role for sanitation demand and ownership. At current income levels, sanitation coverage will only increase to 50 percent if costs for construction are reduced from currently $200 USD to $50 USD per latrine. Our analysis also suggests that previous sanitation promotion campaigns, which were based on prestige and modern lifestyle as motives for latrine construction, have had no success in increasing sanitation coverage. Moreover, improved public health, which is the objective of public policies promoting sanitation, is also difficult to achieve at low sanitation coverage rates. Fear at night, especially of animals, and personal harassment, are stated as the most important motivational factors for latrine ownership and the intention to build one. We therefore suggest that new low cost technologies should be introduced on rural markets and that social marketing strategies should be adjusted accordingly. |
| Keywords: | Sanitation; Sanitation Demand; Willingness to pay; Motivational factors |
| JEL: | D12 O12 O31 O55 |
| Date: | 2014–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:159&r=agr |
| By: | Marc Baudry; Adrien Hervouet |
| Abstract: | This article deals with the impact of legislation in the seed sector on incentives for variety creation. Two categories of rules interact. The first category consists in intellectual property rights and is intended to address a problem of sequential innovation and R&D investments by the private sector. The second category concerns commercial rules that are intended to correct a problem of adverse selection on the seed market. We propose a dynamic model of market equilibrium with vertical product differentiation that enables us to take into account the economic consequences of imposing either Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBRs) or patents as IPRs. We simultaneously examine two kinds of commercial legislation: compulsory registration in a catalogue and minimum standards for commercialisation. Analytical results are completed by numerical simulations. The main result is that the combination between minimum standards and PBRs provides higher incentives for sequential innovation and may be preferred by a public regulator to maximise the expected and discounted total surplus when sunk investment costs are low or when they are medium and the probability of R&D success is sufficiently high. This solution differs from the combination of IPRs and commercialisation rules used in both the US and Europe. Otherwise, PBRs have to be replaced by patents, which yields a configuration close to that observed in the US. The catalogue commercialisation rule is seldom preferred to minimum standards, so that the combination of IPRs and commercialisation rules that prevails in Europe is not supported by our model. |
| Keywords: | Intellectual Property Rights, Plant Breeders’ Rights, Catalogue, Product differentiation, Asymmetric information, Biodiversity. |
| JEL: | D43 D82 K11 L13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2014-32&r=agr |
| By: | Pierre-André Chiappori; Costas Meghir |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop an approach to measuring inequality and poverty that recognizes the fact that individuals within households may have both different preferences and differential access to resources. We argue that a measure based on estimates of the sharing rule is inadequate as an approach that seeks to understand how welfare is distributed in the population because it ignores public good and the allocation of time to market work, leisure and household production. We develop a money metric measure of welfare that accounts for public goods (by using personalized prices) household production and for the allocation of time. |
| JEL: | D1 D11 D13 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20189&r=agr |
| By: | Antony, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the relationship between technical change and the elasticity of substitution between factors of production. It is shown how the elasticity within a CES production setting can change due to technical change. Technical change is interpreted in the spirit of horizontal differentiation as in many growth models. Cases for positive and negative returns to differentiation are analyzed which can be understood as progress or complexity congestions. It is shown how the elasticity changes due to technical choices for each of them. -- |
| Keywords: | Elasticity of substitution,CES production function,Inequality |
| JEL: | E23 O33 F41 J24 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:pfobei:147&r=agr |