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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2012‒08‒23
sixty-six papers chosen by |
| By: | Malcolm, Scott A.; Marshall, Elizabeth P.; Aillery, Marcel P.; Heisey, Paul W.; Livingston, Michael J.; Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A. |
| Abstract: | Global climate models predict increases over time in average temperature worldwide, with significant impacts on local patterns of temperature and precipitation. The extent to which such changes present a risk to food supplies, farmer livelihoods, and rural communities depends in part on the direction, magnitude, and rate of such changes, but equally importantly on the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt to changing patterns of yield and productivity, production cost, and resource availability. Study findings suggest that, while impacts are highly sensitive to uncertain climate projections, farmers have considerable fl exibility to adapt to changes in local weather, resource conditions, and price signals by adjusting crops, rotations, and production practices. Such adaptation, using existing crop production technologies, can partially mitigate the impacts of climate change on national agricultural markets. Adaptive redistribution of production, however, may have signifi cant implications for both regional land use and environmental quality. |
| Keywords: | climate change, adaptation, water resources, agricultural pests, Regional Environment and Agriculture Programming (REAP) model, regional crop mix, regional environmental effects, drought tolerance, pest managemen, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:127734&r=agr |
| By: | Hernandez, Ricardo; Berdegue, Julio A.; Reardon, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the participation of small farmers in the fresh fruit and vegetable supply systems of supermarkets in Mexico, using the case of small-scale guava farmers in the state of Michoacán. Several findings emerge. The most important determinants of access of these farmers to “more modern markets” channels are their territorial context and the way in which those territories interact with different markets, and their quasi-fixed capital assets. Farm size, education, and participation in organizations are not significant determinants (except for farm size in the Central Region). Policies and projects aimed at promoting the inclusion in modern markets of small-scale farmers such as those producing guava in Michoacán, must act on the territorial dimension of the problem of inclusion/exclusion, and not restrict themselves to actions aimed at improving the supply chains or the capacities of the households or their farms and organizations. |
| Keywords: | Mexico, horticulture, supermarkets, wholesale, food markets, rural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:127649&r=agr |
| By: | Goodwin, Barry K. |
| Abstract: | Three specific aspects of agricultural risk management are addressed 1. Recent developments in price volatility and yield risk 2. The role of policy: - Subsidized crop insurance with examples from the massive US program ($115 billion in liability in 2011) - The 2012 US Farm Bill, which is currently being debated in Congress (with disturbing developments) 3. review of recent research on developments in the empirical modeling of risk with a focus on revenue insurance (combining aspects of dependent yield and price risks) |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa126:128207&r=agr |
| By: | Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho; Mark Horridge |
| Abstract: | Agriculture area and production has expanded greatly in Brazil during the last 40 years. The area of annual crops almost doubled, while the area planted for pastures and forestry tripled. However, the rate of deforestation has considerably reduced since 2004. In this paper we analyze the effect of slower forest clearing on food supply and the economy in Brazil, in the presence of increasing world food prices. A multi-period computable general equilibrium model, based on previous work of the authors, is used to analyze the importance of endogenous land supply for agriculture in Brazil. The model includes annual recursive dynamics and a detailed bottom-up regional representation, which for the simulations reported here distinguished 15 aggregated Brazilian regions. It also has 36 sectors, 10 household types, 10 labor grades, and a land use change (LUC) module which tracks land use in each state. The core database is based on the 2005 Brazilian Input-Output model. The LUC model is based on a transition matrix calibrated with data from the Agricultural Censuses of 1995 and 2006, which shows how land use changed across different uses (crops, pastures, forestry and natural forests) between those years. This transition matrix is used to project the deforestation rate (or the increase in total land supply) in the baseline scenario, for the period 2005-2025. Results show that a halt in deforestation would decrease Brazilian GDP by about 0.5% in 2025, compared to a baseline which allows deforestation to continue. But there are redistributive effects that policies may need to counteract: regional GDPs would decrease by as much as 6% for states on the agricultural frontier, and food prices rise by around 2%, slightly raising the cost of living for poorer households. <br /> |
| Keywords: | CGE, food prices, land use, Brazil |
| JEL: | C68 D58 E47 Q15 Q16 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-229&r=agr |
| By: | Bhagowalia, Priya; Headey, Derek D.; Kadiyala, Suneetha |
| Keywords: | Malnutrition in children, nutrition, Linkages, Household income, Agricultural production, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1195&r=agr |
| By: | Rada, Nicholas E.; Valdes, Constanza |
| Abstract: | The Brazilian agricultural sector has been transformed from a traditional system of production with low use of modern technologies to a world agricultural leader. That transformation occurred as the country moved away from import-substitution policies—which nurtured domestic industrial development at the expense of agriculture—toward market-oriented policy reforms. These reforms included openness to foreign trade and foreign investment and the use of new technologies, which led to a new growth pattern. To evaluate that transformation, the authors use agricultural censuses spanning 1985-2006 to characterize Brazilian total factor productivity growth, decomposing that growth into technical and effi ciency changes. This report presents the fi ndings of a study that focuses on the effect of Brazil’s science and technology investments and other public policies on farm production. The fi ndings indicate that agricultural research benefi ts have been most rapidly adopted by the most effi cient farms, widening the productivity gap between these farms and average farms. That gap, however, has been narrowed through other public policies, such as rural credit and infrastructure investments, that favor average producers. |
| Keywords: | Brazilian agriculture, total factor productivity (TFP) growth, technical change, technical effi ciency, Embrapa, agricultural research, distance function, stochastic frontier, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:127498&r=agr |
| By: | Ephias M. Makaudze |
| Abstract: | Drought constitutes the most dominant source of food insecurity in Zimbabwe and many other countries in Africa. With a majority of smallholder farmers practicing dry-land agriculture, seasonal forecasts hold promise as an effective risk management tool, giving farmers the ability to anticipate rainfall variability early enough to adjust crucial farm decisions and better prepared to handle climatic anomalies in ways that can reduce costly losses (crop, animal and even human). This study demonstrates the potential value of forecasts to smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe, a majority who often suffer severely from the impact of drought. Using crop simulation models to compare yield performances of farmers with and without forecasts, results indicate that for a drought year, farmers with forecasts (WF) record higher yield gains (28%) compared to those without forecasts (WOF); in particular, farmers located in driest regions (NR V) record the highest yield gains (42%). Similar results are observed for a neutral/ average year as farmers WF obtain predominantly higher yield gains (20%) than those WOF. However for a good year, results show a different pattern as no yield gains are observed. In fact farmers WOF perform better; suggesting forecasts in this case may not make much difference. Using gross margin analysis, results show farmers WF obtaining higher returns during a drought (US$0.14ha−1) and neutral year (US$0.43ha−1) but again not for good year as farmers WOF outperform those WF. In sum, forecasts can play an important role as loss-minimization instruments especially if the underlying year is a El Nino (drought) year. In conclusion, to attain full economic value of forecasts, complementary policies (currently missing) such as effective communication, improvement in forecast extension skills and promotion of farmer participatory and outreach activities, all could prove vital in enhancing the value of forecasts to smallholder farmers in general |
| Keywords: | Seasonal forecasts, smallholder farmers, El Nino, economic value, drought risk, with and without forecasts |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:303&r=agr |
| By: | Macours, Karen |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:128293&r=agr |
| By: | Cloete, Philip C.; Idsardi, Ernst |
| Abstract: | The level of food security in South Africa is largely being influenced by income inequalities and food prices with a large part of the population that has access to food but do not have the financial means to obtain it. Despite ever increasing food inflation, South Africa is still adopting policies and strategies which may contribute towards even higher levels of food inflation and consequently food insecurity in the near future. These include amongst others the National Bio-Fuel Industrial Strategy. Previous studies suggest that indigenous and traditional food crops play a substantial role in ensuring food security in several African countries. The question that arises is whether these alternative food crops do not hold the answer towards balancing the trade-off between fuel and food in South Africa. In order to answer that question, a literature review was conducted to understand the inter-linkages between food and bio-fuel as well as to understand the role that indigenous and traditional food crops are currently playing in Africa. To analyse the current status and potential of indigenous and traditional food crops in South Africa, a topical survey amongst 600 African households in the North-West Province was conducted. Contrary to other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, the survey showed that current production and consumption of indigenous and traditional foods crops in South Africa is modest. This is mainly due to ignorance and unavailability of these specific crops. Despite this, the potential of these crops is evident in the South African context due to affordability, positive perceptions, and land availability near poor rural and peri-urban communities. Hence, indigenous and traditional food crops hold significant opportunities for South Africa to pursue bio-fuel production without compromising food security. To achieve this, specific interventions are needed to stimulate the production and consumption of indigenous and traditional food crops. |
| Keywords: | bio-fuels, food security, indigenous and traditional food crops, South Africa, household consumption, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q10, Q18, D10, |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:130172&r=agr |
| By: | David Orden; Beghin, John C.; Guy Henry |
| Abstract: | This Introduction summarizes some of the key research findings of the papers in this special issue of The World Economy drawn from a European Commission co-funded project on non-tariff measures (NTMs) affecting agri-food trade of the EU and its trade partners. The project created a large symmetric international database of regulations and standards, constructed measures of their heterogeneity, and evaluated the effects of heterogeneity on trade. Cases studies for selected dairy, meat, and fruit and vegetable products complement the aggregate analysis. The findings suggest that at least for some import standards, the harmonization of regulations will increase trade. Additional findings address the potential protectionist leaning of some NTMs, their welfare impact, third-country consequences of their imposition, interface of NTMs with tariffs and other border measures, negotiation strategies, North-South dimensions of NTM impacts, and the value added from application of diverse and novel models to the assessment of their effects. |
| Keywords: | Non-tariff measures (NTMs); standards; agricultural tariffs; agricultural and agri-food trade; trade impact; welfare impact |
| JEL: | F13 F14 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2012–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:35279&r=agr |
| By: | Anderson, Kym; Nelgen, Signe |
| Abstract: | The recent upward spike in the international price of food led some countries to raise export barriers. As in previous price spike periods, that response by some food-exporting countries was accompanied by a lowering of import restrictions by numerous food-importing countries. Both actions exacerbate the international price spike. This paper provides new evidence n the extent of change in domestic relative to international prices in both groups of countries, and compares it with responses during previous food price spike periods. Stronger WTO disciplines on export restrictions are needed to limit government responses that exacerbate such price shocks. |
| Keywords: | Commodity price stabilization; Distorted incentives; Domestic market insulation |
| JEL: | F14 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9086&r=agr |
| By: | Kym Anderson (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Anna Strutt |
| Abstract: | Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and the Republic of Korea and Taipei,China from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, the People’s Republic of China, and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy that compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviors to 2030. Projected impacts on sectoral shares of gross domestic product (GDP), “openness†to trade and the composition and direction of trade are drawn out, followed by effects of the boom in non-farm sectors on agricultural self-sufficiency and real food consumption per capita in Asia and elsewhere. The paper concludes by drawing implications for policies that can address more efficiently Asia’s concerns about food security and rural-urban income disparity than the trade policy measures used by earlier-industrializing Northeast Asia. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, food security, Asia, alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios, agricultural self-sufficiency, food consumption |
| JEL: | D58 F13 F15 F17 Q17 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23309&r=agr |
| By: | Kym Anderson (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Anna Strutt |
| Abstract: | Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and the Republic of Korea and Taipei,China from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, the People’s Republic of China, and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy that compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviors to 2030. Projected impacts on sectoral shares of gross domestic product (GDP), “openness†to trade and the composition and direction of trade are drawn out, followed by effects of the boom in non-farm sectors on agricultural self-sufficiency and real food consumption per capita in Asia and elsewhere. The paper concludes by drawing implications for policies that can address more efficiently Asia’s concerns about food security and rural-urban income disparity than the trade policy measures used by earlier-industrializing Northeast Asia. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, food security, Asia, alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios, agricultural self-sufficiency, food consumption |
| JEL: | D58 F13 F15 F17 Q17 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:23309&r=agr |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | Onset risk, the uncertainty in the onset of rainy season, is an important element of weather risk for African farmers with little access to formal insurance who engage in traditional rainfed farming. A knowledge gap still exists empirically on how onset risk may affect the investment decisions of these farmers. In particular, farm productivity in Africa still depends on substantial labor inputs at the onset of the rainy season, sometimes involving seasonal migration to rural areas. With credit and insurance market failure, poor access to weather-related information, and high labor mobility costs, high and increasing onset risk may affect farmers' demand for farm mechanization. We test this hypothesis by investigating the effect of onset risk on farmers' investment in draft animals in northern and central Nigeria. We use the example of a public project providing farmers with financial support for the acquisition of productive assets. We calculate the onset of the rainy season using daily rainfall data in various locations across Nigeria and identify locations that have experienced increasing, decreasing, or constant onset risk in the past few decades. We then exploit the panel structure of our dataset and employ stratified propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated, differentiated by the onset risk and its change. The results support our hypothesis. Farmers in areas with higher, increasing, or constant onset risk were more likely to invest in draft animals, and such effects are clearer among larger-scale farmers. Linkages are also clearer with onset risk compared to annual rainfall risk. |
| Keywords: | livestock, rainfall, onset risk, Agricultural productivity, Agricultural inputs, Agricultural Investment, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1198&r=agr |
| By: | Maria Jeus (Técnica Superior de Agricultura, Díli, Timor-Leste); Pedro Henriques (CEFAGE e Departamento de Economia - Universidade de Évora); Pedro Laranjeira (Ministério da Agricultura e Pescas de Timor-Leste); Vanda Narciso (Investigadora independente); Maria Leonor da Silva Carvalho (ICAM e Departamento de Economia - Universidade de Évora) |
| Abstract: | Every year thousands of hectares of forest are destructed as a result of the practice of swidden agriculture, shifting cultivation or "slush and burn" causing changes in forest ecosystems. In Timor-Leste shifting cultivation is still practiced nowadays as a form of subsistence agriculture. The objectives of the research are to characterize and reveal the socio-economic importance of shifting agriculture to rural communities in Timor-Leste, to identify its impacts in the environmental sustainability of the ecosystems, as well as to suggest some solutions to mitigate their negative impacts. A questionnaire survey that characterized shifting cultivation, and asked farmers’ opinion on slash and burning of forest areas and on the importance of forests was applied to farmers of two Sucos of Bobonaro district. According to the results the existing vegetation before the slash was composed of dense forest, the slash is made by the family group, farmers have been doing the “slush and burn” for more than ten years and the size of the plots used is less than 2 hectares. The materials resulting from the slash are used for firewood, building materials and fencing. The burning of vegetable residues is done before planting and soil preparation and sowing is done with a lever. Land and forest, despite having an individual use, have a tenure regime of ownership and access in which its nature of common pool good prevails. |
| Keywords: | shifting cultivation, forest ecosystems, sustainability, Timor-Leste. |
| JEL: | Q23 Q24 Q26 Q57 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2012_16&r=agr |
| By: | James P Walsh; Jiangyan Yu |
| Abstract: | There is an extensive literature noting that high inflation can add to income inequality, and a parallel literature assessing the effect of rising food prices on the poor. This paper attempts to combine these strands by dividing inflation into food and nonfood inflation and assessing whether food inflation affects income inequality differently from nonfood inflation. In an international sample and a sample of Chinese provinces, nonfood inflation exacerbates income inequality while the role of food inflation is more mixed. In a sample of Indian states broken down into urban and rural areas, we find that nonfood inflation adds to income inequality in both areas, while food inflation has a neutral to positive effect on income inequality in rural areas, providing support for the theory that rural wages may respond elastically to food prices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural commodities , Income distribution , China , India , Inflation , Producer prices , |
| Date: | 2012–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/147&r=agr |
| By: | Hoffmann, Rodolfo; Oliveira, Regis B. de |
| Abstract: | Agricultural and non-agricultural distribution of earnings in Brazil |
| Keywords: | Brazil, per capita household income, occupied persons, agricultural, non-agricultural, income distribution, Labor and Human Capital, D31, J31, J43, |
| Date: | 2012–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:127673&r=agr |
| By: | Bräutigam, Deborah; Tang, Xiaoyang |
| Abstract: | The recent expansion of Chinese economic engagement in Africa is often poorly documented and not well understood. This paper is the first in an International Food Policy Research Institute-sponsored effort to better understand Chinese engagement in Africa's agricultural sector. A clearer picture of Chinese activities in agriculture is important as a foundation for Africans and their development partners to more fruitfully engage with an increasingly important actor. This overview paper explores China's engagement in rural Ethiopia in historical perspective, focusing on foreign aid, other official engagements, and investment by Chinese firms between 1970 and 2011. We find that Chinese engagement in agriculture and rural development in Ethiopia is longstanding, but at present, Chinese farming investment is far smaller than generally believed. Changes in this engagement reflect the changes in China's engagement in Africa more generally. |
| Keywords: | Foreign aid, Agribusiness, Agriculture, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1185&r=agr |
| By: | Dyck, John H.; Woolverton, Andrea E.; Rangkuti, Fahwani Yuliati |
| Abstract: | Indonesia’s food market has changed in response to a changing and growing economy. The report examines changes in the food consumption pattern and measures the growth of modern food retail chains, packaged food purchases, and food imports in the world’s fourth-most-populous country. The evidence suggests that Indonesians are moving toward modern global purchasing and consumption patterns, but more slowly than in some comparable countries. Barriers to foreign and domestic commerce, affecting the development of modern food retail supply chains, are important constraints on food market change in Indonesia. Further change in Indonesia’s retail food sector will help determine future growth in imports, including from the United States. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, Indonesian retail food sector, Indonesian food demand, supply chain, trade barriers, supermarkets, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:127495&r=agr |
| By: | Juma, Calestous (Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | There is an urgent need to create a new generation of innovation-oriented agricultural that efficiently bring together agricultural research, training, commercialization, and extension. This paper calls for upgrading the training, extension, and commercialization functions of existing national agricultural research institutes (NARIs). This would build on a strong research tradition, ongoing training efforts, connections with the private sector and farmers, and extensive international partnerships. Upgrading NARIs in this manner would also lay the foundation for the emergence of the first generation of research universities in Africa with an initial focus on agriculture. The creation of agricultural innovation universities would serve as a starting point for broader efforts in Africa to strengthen the role of science, technology, and innovation in economic transformation. The paper provides a roadmap that can be used to guide the proposed reform efforts. |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp12-026&r=agr |
| By: | Das, Gouranga |
| Abstract: | The rush for land acquisition—primarily driven by food shortage and run for agrofuel—has drawn considerable attention. Some documents published in late 2009, 2010, and 2011 report this phenomenon. Terminological differences aside, it is—quite distinct from materials or service outsourcing—kind of off-shoring farm production to relatively land-abundant nations across borders and exporting them back to mitigate the adverse effects of food insecurity. While the academic literature is not capacious, this paper, first of its kind, attempts to study its (potential) effects in the context of a small open economy subject to exogenous shocks. The presence of a sector subject to land acquisition is central in the analysis. In particular, it furnishes that: (i) increase in world price of agro-business sector causes skewed effects (shrinkage) in manufacturing or innovative sectors, and subsistence sector (via forward and backward linkages), causing vulnerability to price changes; (ii) with attractive premium offered by host, land acquisition will undermine the avowed objective of mitigating food shortage and aggravate income inequality in the host; (iii) technological progress or inducing technological efforts via skill, capacity building, infrastructure developments will have favorable effects if host countries adopt favorable policy climate to foster governance, and education for revitalizing agriculture. Further extensions to address pertinent (stylized) facts are also explored. |
| Keywords: | Land deal; Food price; Land-premium; Wage gap; Immiserizing deal |
| JEL: | J31 F11 O15 F21 |
| Date: | 2012–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40651&r=agr |
| By: | Huttel, Silke; Jetzinger, Simon; Odening, Martin |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyse agricultural land prices in the German Federal State of Brandenburg within the period 2000-2011. Our objective is to understand the price formation process in foreclosures. One effect of foreclosures relates to pressured sales, which likely lead to a price discount, and another effect relates to public auctions leading to a price premium. The overall effect is derived using direct covariate matching. Our results show that on average, price premia rather than price discounts are realized in forced sales of farmland. The price differential, however, is not constant and depends on prevailing land market conditions. |
| Keywords: | Forced sales, land prices, treatment effect, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Labor and Human Capital, Q120, Q150, D490, |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:huscpw:129063&r=agr |
| By: | Mather, David L; Jayne, T.S. |
| Abstract: | Marketing boards and strategic reserves have re-emerged over the last decade as significant actors in grain markets in eastern and southern Africa, yet there is little empirical research regarding how their activities affect smallholder behavior. This paper uses panel survey data from 1997-2007 on Kenyan smallholders to investigate the effect of Kenya’s National Cereal Produce Board activities on farmgate maize price expectations, output supply, and factor demand. Results show that the NCPB pan-territorial price has a positive effect on smallholders’ maize price expectations, and that smallholders respond to higher expected maize prices by increasing maize production through increased fertilizer use. |
| Keywords: | Marketing boards, supply response, Africa, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Marketing, Q12, Q13, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:131056&r=agr |
| By: | Luljeta Hajderllari (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Kostas Karantininis (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Ole Bonnichsen (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to provide some evidence on the push and pull factors that motivate farmers to expand across their home countries’ borders. The focus is on Danish expansion farmers and investor farmers setting up activities in Central and Eastern European countries like Slovakia, Poland, Romania and Latvia. Data from 44 mail surveys was analysed to explore the push and pull factors that contribute to farmers’ level of activities outside their home country. The responses given in the mail survey are analysed using two analytical methods of frequency analysis and an ordered probit model. The results indicate that the important factors for Danish farmers to extend overseas are price and availability of land, institutional governance, network and image with regard to farming. These findings generally support the literature regarding reasons for farmers to increase their cross-border activities, except that we do not find a significant influence from the availability of cheap labour in the host countries. |
| Keywords: | Denmark; Danish farmer; agriculture; cross-border; Central Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | C51 D22 F23 Q12 Q17 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:foi:wpaper:2012_10&r=agr |
| By: | Dressler, Jonathan B.; Tauer, Loren W. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cudawp:128814&r=agr |
| By: | Breen, James P.; Donnellan, Trevor; Westhoff, Patrick C. |
| Abstract: | To date within Europe, a regulatory approach has been favoured when trying to curtail emissions from agriculture, the Nitrates Directive being a recent example. Economic theory indicates that market based solutions such as tradable emissions permits are the least cost means of achieving desired reductions in emissions. This paper compares the impact on farm incomes of a regulatory approach to emissions abatement with an emissions trading approach. A farm-level linear programming model for the Irish agriculture sector is constructed. A 20 percent reduction in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions is introduced and the impact on farm incomes is measured. The linear programming model is then used to determine each farmer’s shadow value for an emissions permit. These shadow values are then weighted to estimate supply and demand curves and used to simulate a market for emissions permits and the farm incomes are re-estimated. Finally, the implications for farm incomes of both abatement strategies are compared with a scenario where no constraint is placed on GHG emissions. |
| Keywords: | Farm-level modelling, greenhouse gas emissions, tradable emissions permits, Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:130555&r=agr |
| By: | Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda |
| Abstract: | Farmer groups are considered potentially effective mechanisms to increase farmer livelihood by reducing information asymmetries and transaction costs. In many countries, farmers are coordinated in groups for participation in poverty reduction programs. This is common practice in many input voucher programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the effect of farmer groups on certain outcomes such as price received and marketing has been studied, few studies, if any, have examined the effect of intragroup dynamics on farmer experience of input voucher programs. Consequently, this research uses a fertilizer voucher scheme in Nigeria to explore whether different methods of distributing fertilizer through farmer groups can affect an intervention's ability to increase farmer access to agricultural inputs. To receive a fertilizer voucher in a pilot targeted subsidy program in Nigeria, all farmers were required to be members of an organized group. However, for fertilizer distribution among one set of participants, individual farmers were given their allotted share directly, whereas farmers in the other set received their fertilizer indirectly through a group representative. |
| Keywords: | Farmer groups, Farmer organizations, fertilizer, vouchers, Social capital, subsidies, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1197&r=agr |
| By: | Shinichi Taya |
| Abstract: | The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides mid-term projections of global agricultural markets simulated by the AGLINK-COSIMO model. While the projections typically present a deterministic outlook for markets that are conditional on a set of assumptions, recent experience of highly turbulent markets has renewed interest in quantitative assessment of price volatility by stochastic simulations using the AGLINK-COSIMO model. Improvements in the methodology of stochastic analyses are pursued and implemented. As an application, the impact of crop yield shocks on price volatility is studied. Since the concurrent reduction in production in different countries is deemed as one of the factors of the price spike in 2007/08, the contribution of correlation of yield shocks to price volatility is measured. This paper shows that correlation effects account for a significant portion of price volatility for coarse grains and wheat. |
| Keywords: | volatility, variability, stochastic simulations, coarse grains, correlation, rice, wheat |
| Date: | 2012–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:57-en&r=agr |
| By: | You, Gene J.-Y.; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Two factors critical to assuring food security, whether at the local or the global level, are increasing crop productivity and increasing access to sustainable water supplies. These factors are also vital to the economic success of agriculture, which is particuÂlarly important in Ethiopia given that the sector accounts for about 41 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), produces 80 percent of its exports, employs 80 percent of the labor force, and is a major source of income and subsistence for the nation’s poor. |
| Keywords: | hydro-economic modeling, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resbrf:15(19)&r=agr |
| By: | Ural Marchand, Beyza (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Chakravorty, Ujjayant (Tufts University); Hubert, Marie-Helene (University of Rennes) |
| Abstract: | Many countries have adopted energy policies that promote biofuels as a substitute for gasoline in transportation. For instance, 40% of U.S. grain is now used for energy and this share is expected to rise significantly under the current Renewable Fuels Mandate. This paper examines the distributional effects of the U.S. mandate on India. First, we use a model with endogenous land use to estimate the effect of biofuel policy on the world price of food commodities, in particular rice, wheat, sugar and meat and dairy, which provide almost 70% of Indian food calories. We obtain world price increases of the order of 10% for most of these commodities. Using Indian micro-level survey data for consumption and income, we carefully estimate the effect of these price increases on household welfare. We account for negative consumption impacts as well as the positive effects through wages and income. We consider both perfect and imperfect pass-through from world to domestic prices. We show that the net impact on welfare is negative as well as regressive, i.e., U.S. biofuels policy affects the poorest people the most. About 42 million new poor may be created in India alone. Under imperfect pass-through, this number declines to 16 million. The main implication is that U.S. energy policy that mandates the production of fuel from food may lead to a sharp increase in world poverty. |
| Keywords: | clean energy; food prices; household welfare; renewable fuel standards; poverty |
| JEL: | D31 O12 Q24 Q42 |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2012_017&r=agr |
| By: | Carillo, Felicetta; Maietta, Ornella Wanda |
| Abstract: | Objectives of this paper is to verify whether the relationship between the level of per capita income and the environment quality, for the Italian regions, follows the prescription of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), taking into account the contribution of agriculture and rural areas. The Arellano-Bond two-step dynamic panel data GMM estimator has been applied to a data set of the 20 Italian administrative regions referred to the 2000-‘06 years. The quality of environment is represented by the level of per capita CO2 emissions from the whole economy and the level of per capita CO2 emissions from agriculture. The regression results show that i) the EKC prescription holds for the Italian regions, ii) the more agricultural regions are found on the rising section of the curve; iii) a greater intensity of expenditure under the RDP regional agro-environmental and forestry measures is positively associated to a more degraded environment. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve, Agriculture, Agricultural Policy, Regional panel data, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q01, Q15, R11, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa126:128206&r=agr |
| By: | Pullabhotla, Hemant; Ganesh-Kumar, A. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Policies, inputs, outputs, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1199&r=agr |
| By: | Ashley Dunstan; Chris McDonald (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | A good farm price measure captures the price that a 'representative' farm would sell for each period. In reality, though, there is no representative farm and, even if there was, it would not sell every period anyway. Farms are not like bottles of milk. They are not identical and their prices are not easily comparable. Moreover, farm price measures must rely on a small, and changing, sample of farm sales from which they must disentangle like-for-like price changes. Keeping in mind that the quality of any farm price measure will be limited by the low number of farm sales, particularly during periods of stress, this paper sets out to improve on currently available measures of farm prices by controlling for the different characteristic of farms sold. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2012/04&r=agr |
| By: | Li, Yuan; Beghin, John C. |
| Abstract: | We propose aggregation indices of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) to quantify their protectionism relative to international standards. We apply the indices to national Maximum Residue Limit (MRL) regulations affecting agricultural and food trade and using a science-based criteria embodied in Codex Alimentarius international standards. The approach links two streams of the NTM literature, one concerned with the aggregation of various NTMs into operational indices for econometric and modeling purposes, and the other attempting to evaluate the protectionism of NTMs. The data used in the application come from a large international dataset on veterinary and pesticide MRLs and CODEX MRL standards for a large set of countries |
| Keywords: | NTMs; Non-tariff measures; barriers; protectionism; Maximum residue limit; MRL |
| JEL: | F13 Q13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2012–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:35276&r=agr |
| By: | Kyureghian, Gayaneh; Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr. |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the supply of retail food outlets affects the household purchase of fruits and vegetables. We are particularly interested in the specific effects of the increased supply on household of fruit and vegetable purchases in underserved areas. Difference-in-difference type fixed-effect OLS regressions are used to estimate these effects for the pooled sample and for the subsamples by income level, in two settings – pooled cross-section and panel data settings. The findings indicate that the increased availability is not associated with an increase in fruit and vegetables quantity purchased. No discernible effects are detected for underserved areas and for income-differentiated subsamples. The results indicate that the policy intervention to increase the number of local food outlets not increase fruit and vegetable consumption in general, and the target underserved communities will likely not be affected. |
| Keywords: | Food deserts, Fruits and Vegetables, Food Availability, Difference-in-Difference, Natural Experiment, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, I18, R23, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:129727&r=agr |
| By: | Rodrigo, Maria F. |
| Keywords: | Poverty trap, Cooperatives, Ethiopia, Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:130545&r=agr |
| By: | Larson, Donald F.; Dinar, Ariel; Blankespoor, Brian |
| Abstract: | Greenhouse gas emissions are largely determined by how energy is created and used, and policies designed to encourage mitigation efforts reflect this reality. However, an unintended consequence of an energy-focused strategy is that the set of policy instruments needed to tap mitigation opportunities in agriculture is incomplete. In particular, market-linked incentives to achieve mitigation targets are disconnected from efforts to better manage carbon sequestered in agricultural land. This is especially important for many countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia where once-productive land has been degraded through poor agricultural practices. Often good agricultural policies and prudent natural resource management can compensate for missing links to mitigation incentives, but only partially. At the same time, two international project-based programs, Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism, have been used to finance other types of agricultural mitigation efforts worldwide. Even so, a review of projects suggests that few countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia take full advantage of these financing paths. This paper discusses mitigation opportunities in the region, the reach of current mitigation incentives, and missed mitigation opportunities in agriculture. The paper concludes with a discussion of alternative policies designed to jointly promote mitigation and co-benefits for agriculture and the environment. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Wetlands,Climate Change Economics,Environmental Economics&Policies,Energy and Environment |
| Date: | 2012–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6080&r=agr |
| By: | Tomo, Alda A.; Crawford, Eric W.; Donovan, Cynthia; Lloyd, James W.; Udo, Henk; Viets, Theo |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of chicken vaccination on farmers’ income. A dynamic simulation model, VIPOSIM, combined with benefit-cost techniques, was used ensuring that both, the dynamic aspects of village poultry production system and selection bias are addressed. The findings of this study reveal that, in general, Newcastle Disease (ND) control results in a considerable increase in farmers’ income. Economic profitability is not the underlying factor for low rates of chicken vaccination. To address adequately the adoption of ND control technology, the government should concentrate efforts on the strategies of extension and distribution of the vaccine. |
| Keywords: | benefit-cost analysis, simulation model, Newcastle disease, economic impact, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:130977&r=agr |
| By: | M.ª Maurícia Rosado (University of Évora, Department of Animal Science, ICAAM); Carlos Marques (University of Évora, Department of Management, CEFAGE); Rui Fragoso (University of Évora, Department of Management, CEFAGE) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a case study in which the effects of traditional Mediterranean crop farming system of the Alentejo region of Portugal on environment are evaluated and benchmarked. With this objective a typical farm of the region using that traditional system based on a crop-rotation of durum wheat with sunflower and peas was selected. Environmental indicators were used to evaluate production activities environmental effects. These include nitrogen balance and energy input determined using input and output processes analysis, and greenhouse gas emissions, acidification and eutrophication impacts and an aggregate eco-indicator evaluated using life cycle analysis. Results show the relevance of rotating other crops with cereals to control environmental effects and promote typical Mediterranean crop farming system sustainability. Green peas and sunflower estimated contribution is a 40% decrease of overall composite indicator system impact. Energetic input and nitrogen balance levels of these crops also allow for a substantial reduction (34 and 24 %) of magnitude of average environmental effects of crop system due to their lower intensification energy and nitrogen input levels. Benchmarking of environmental indicators for Mediterranean traditional crop farming system of the Alentejo indicates that results are within bounds reported in the environmental scientific literature interval at levels below average, indicating relatively low environmental impacts relatively to other farming systems. |
| Keywords: | environment, evaluation, benchmarking, Alentejo. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q18 Q29 Q49 Q59 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2012_14&r=agr |
| By: | Somwaru, Agapi; Dirkse, Steve |
| Abstract: | This report documents the updated version of the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model developed by USDA’s Economic Research Service. PEATSim is a global model, covering 31 commodities and 27 countries/regions. The model, consistent with economic theory, provides a flexible country and commodity aggregation and accounts for cross-commodity linkages and interactions. The report includes a presentation and discussion of the structure and specific features of the revamped model, along with the theoretical underpinnings. It also documents an application of the model to illustrate its dynamic structure and to demonstrate the differential behavior. |
| Keywords: | Partial equilibrium, dynamic, trade, multi-commodity markets, agriculture, global model, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerstb:129359&r=agr |
| By: | Hertel, Thomas W.; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Baldos, Uris Lantz C. |
| Abstract: | The global land use implications of biofuel expansion have received considerable attention in the literature over the past decade. Model-based estimates of the emissions from cropland expansion have been used to assess the environmental impacts of biofuel policies. And integrated assessment models have estimated the potential for biofuels to contribute to greenhouse gas abatement over the coming century. All of these studies feature, explicitly or implicitly, competition between biofuel feed stocks and other land uses. However, the economic mechanisms governing this competition, as well as the contribution of biofuels to global land use change, have not received the close scrutiny that they deserve. The purpose of this paper is to offer a deeper look at these factors. We begin with a comparative static analysis which assesses the impact of exogenously specified forecasts of biofuel expansion over the 2006-2035 period. Global land use change is decomposed according to the three key margins of economic response: extensive supply, intensive supply, and demand. Under the International Energy Agency’s “New Policies” scenario, biofuels account for nearly one-fifth of global land use change over the 2006-2035 period. The paper also offers a comparative dynamic analysis which determines the optimal path for first and second generation biofuels over the course of the entire 21st century. In the absence of GHG regulation, the welfare-maximizing path for global land use allocates 170 Mha to biofuel feed stocks by 2100, with the associated biofuels accounting for about 30% of global liquid fuel consumption. This area expansion is somewhat diminished by expected climate change impacts on agriculture, while it is significantly increased by a moderately aggressive GHG emissions target and by advances in conversion efficiency of second generation biofuels. Keywords: Biofuels, global land use, partial equilibrium analysis, comparative statics, comparative dynamics, climate change impacts, carbon policies. |
| Keywords: | Biofuels, global land use, partial equilibrium analysis, comparative statics, comparative dynamics, climate change impacts, carbon policies, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q11, Q15, Q24, Q42, Q54, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:129614&r=agr |
| By: | Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Miguel Carriquiry (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)) |
| Abstract: | Countries that export biofuel feedstocks such as grain or sugar and that are also importers of motor fuels will have a natural competitive advantage over other countries in the production of biofuels. Argentina is one of a very few countries that both export potential feedstocks and import gasoline and diesel. This combination means that an Argentine ethanol plant will pay less for feedstock and receive a higher price for ethanol than an ethanol plant located in a country that imports feedstocks and exports motor fuels. Argentina is the world’s second-largest exporter of corn. This export status, when combined with high internal transportation costs, lowers the price of corn in the major production areas of Argentina. In addition, Argentina’s farmers need to plant more corn to create a more sustainable balance between corn and soybeans. In particular, in Argentina’s northern production regions, the large amount of crop residue from increased corn plantings is needed to help build soil quality. Thus there is significant potential for expansion of corn in Argentina, which makes corn an even better feedstock for ethanol. The variable or direct cost of converting a ton of corn into ethanol in Argentina is comparable to conversion costs in the United States, with the exception that natural gas costs more in Argentina. For a plant that does not dry distillers grains, conversion costs would be approximately $40 per ton of corn processed. Drying distillers grains adds about $10 per ton. The domestic price of corn in Argentina not only reflects the cost of transporting corn from the interior to Rosario, but it also reflects the effects of export taxes and the need to obtain government permission to export. Over the period from October 2010 to March 2012, the cost of corn to an ethanol plant in the state of Iowa in the United States averaged $110 more per ton than the local price of corn paid to farmers in Córdoba over the same period, and $140 more per ton than the Salta corn price. Argentina also has a large livestock sector that can readily use distillers grains from corn ethanol plants. Plants that are located close to cattle operations can sell wet distillers grains to these operations thereby saving the cost of drying. Plants that have dryers installed can export distillers grains. Livestock producers in many countries have learned how to use imported distillers grains from US ethanol plants over the last few years, so Argentina would have the ability to export dried distillers grains. |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:12-sr107&r=agr |
| By: | Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda |
| Abstract: | Though input vouchers are being publicized as a mechanism to simultaneously target subsidies and develop demand in private markets, limited empirical evidence of their effect on private input demand exists. Few empirical studies, if any, exist on the effect of targeted subsidies on private input demand in Nigeria or West Africa . Consequently this study begins to fill this gap by estimating the effect of a targeted input subsidy on farmer participation in the private fertilizer market in Nigeria. Using a double hurdle model and a control function approach, this study explores the effect of increasing access to subsidized fertilizer on farmer participation in the private fertilizer market in Kano, Nigeria. The study finds evidence that farmers who received subsidized fertilizer in 2009 tended to have less assets than their counterparts who did not. Within this context, although receiving subsidized fertilizer did not appear to increase the probability of participating in the private fertilizer market, it did increase the quantity of fertilizer purchased from the private market once the decision to participate had been made. It appears that one benefit of the voucher program was that it developed links between rural farmers and input suppliers. Furthermore, where private fertilizer markets are weak, results indicate that there could be significant gains from the temporary use of voucher programs to create links between input suppliers and farmers. |
| Keywords: | subsidies, fertilizer, demand, Market participation, Private sector, vouchers, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1194&r=agr |
| By: | Schmit, Todd M.; Taber, John T.; Rickard, Bradley J. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cudawp:128813&r=agr |
| By: | Scozzafava, Gabriele; Casini, Leonardo; Marinelli, Nicola |
| Abstract: | The evolution of consumer profile highlights, for food products and specifically for beef, a growing attention for a number of specific aspects related to food quality, safety, environmental issues and animal welfare. Because of this, it is more and more important to understand the consumer’s choice dynamics in order to develop differentiated marketing, commercial and communication strategies that also refer to different distribution channel. This study was conceived with the aim of analysing the different motives and purchase behaviours of beef consumers in the two main distribution channels: Modern Distribution (MD) and specialised shops (butcher shops). The research is based on an internet administered questionnaire to a representative sample of 1500 beef consumers. Within the questionnaire a Visual Choice Experiment was proposed and its results were analysed using a Multinomial Logit Model. The results show different consumer characteristics in the two analysed distribution channels, highlighting how the same product attributes have different meaning and relevance. Such results may supply strategic information for packaging, pricing and general commercialisation strategies to be implemented by the different agents in the distribution sector. |
| Keywords: | Beef, Consumer Behaviour, Choice Experiment, Distribution, Marketing Strategies, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q13, C90, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:isae12:130448&r=agr |
| By: | Haiyan, Liu; Thomas, Wahl; James, Seale; Junfei, Bai |
| Abstract: | Though numerous researchers have analyzed the effects of socioeconomic factors on food-away-from-home (FAFH) consumption, little is known about how household composition will affect China’s FAFH patterns. This study focuses on the effects of household composition along with income and education on FAFH expenditures in urban China. A Box-Cox double-hurdle model is estimated using recent household survey data collected by the authors from Beijing, Nanjing, Chengdu, Xi’an, Shenyang and Xiamen, China. Household composition indeed has significant effects on FAFH consumption, both at the participation and expenditure steps. Different age groups have different influences. Seniors old than 60 years eat out less frequently and spend less when they consume FAFH, while adults between 20-49 are the major FAFH consumers in urban China. Children younger than 10 years have no significant effect on either FAFH participation or expenditure. Also, we find both income and wife’s education have positive effects on FAFH consumption. The participation elasticity with respect to income is a bit lower, while the expenditure elasticity is significantly higher. Families with highly educated wives tend to dine away from home more often than their counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Household composition, China’s Food Expenditures, Food-away-from-home, Box-Cox double-hurdle model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, D12, D13, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:131057&r=agr |
| By: | Gillespie, Stuart; Harris, Jody; Kadiyala, Suneetha |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, malnutrition, economic growth, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1187&r=agr |
| By: | Headey, Derek |
| Keywords: | global food crisis, Hunger, Poverty, self-reported indicators, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resbrf:17&r=agr |
| By: | Darian Woods (The Treasury); Andrew Coleman (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and the Treasury) |
| Abstract: | The average value of a particular class of agricultural exports varies widely across different destinations. This raises the question: in the event of a supply shock, such as the implementation of the Emissions Trading Scheme, can farmers offset higher costs by raising their average prices by contracting exports to lower value destinations? If the difference in value reflects different prices because producers have market power, the answer will be “yes”. If the difference in value reflects differences in the quality of goods exported to different destinations, the answer is “no.” This paper use a variety of trade data and techniques to examine which explanation is most likely to be relevant. While the answers are not definitive, there is little support for the hypothesis that exports are curtailed. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, exports, emissions trading scheme, price, quality, market power, international trade, New Zealand |
| JEL: | D43 F12 F14 F18 Q17 Q56 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_08&r=agr |
| By: | Orden, David; Blandford, David; Josling, Timothy Edward; Brink, Lars |
| Abstract: | When the World Trade Organization (WTO) was created in 1995, its members committed themselves to a set of disciplines for domestic support, market access, and export competition for agriculture. The Agreement on Agriculture laid the way for the pursuit of progressive reductions in world agricultural market distortions. Its supporters hoped the new rules and commitments would encourage countries to move domestic farm policies in a less trade-distorting direction. This research brief examines the Agreement’s domestic support disciplines and their potential strengthening under the as-yet unfinished Doha Round negotiations. The brief provides a summary of the main conclusions from the March 2011 book WTO Disciplines on Agricultural Support: Seeking a Fair Basis for Trade. The analysis focuses on four developed countries (the United States, the European Union [as a single “countryâ€], Japan, and Norway) and four developing countries (Brazil, China, India, and the Philippines). We highlight the substantial differences among these countries in their notifications of policy measures and the support they provide. Where a complete set of notifications is not available for 1995–2008, estimates (“shadow†notifications) are constructed. Domestic support is also projected through the mid-2010s and compared to existing and potential WTO commitments. |
| Keywords: | WTO, trade, Farm management, Doha agreement, World Trade Organization Developing countries, WTO Doha round, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resbrf:16&r=agr |
| By: | Kassie, Menale; Jaleta, Moti; Shiferaw, Bekele A.; Mmbando, Frank; de Groote, Hugo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of the intensity of improved maize varieties adoption on food security and poverty using data collected in 2010 from maize-legume farming systems in rural Tanzania. We used a continuous treatment approach using generalized propensity score matching and parametric error correction approaches to reduce potential biases stemming from difference in observed characteristics. Estimates of the dose-response functions reveal that average probability of food security, average per capita food expenditure and the average probability of break-even and food surplus increase with the intensity of adoption. On the other hand, the probability of being poor, chronic and transitory food insecurity declines with the intensity of adoption. The results provide strong evidence for heterogeneous food security impacts at different levels of adoption. At low levels of adoption, the average and marginal treatment effects are low while the food security impacts increase substantially at higher level of adoption. |
| Keywords: | Adoption intensity, food security, poverty, Continuous treatment, Dose-response function, Tanzania, Food Security and Poverty, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C14, C21, Q12, |
| Date: | 2012–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:128004&r=agr |
| By: | Jackeline Velazco; Vicente Pinilla |
| Abstract: | Using data for a sample of households in six villages from the North and Central Peruvian Sierra, we investigate the role played by access to assets, land in particular, in determining farm and non-farm income sources. The empirical relationship between assets and income sources is derived from a household model.Ordinary Least Square and Tobit models were used for the empirical analysis. Evidence suggests that the relationship between land and income diversification is influenced by village specific characteristics. In general, results have demonstrated the importance of assets such as natural, physical, human and social as key determinants of rural income in Peruvian Sierra. For the particular case of this study, in which families are located in a poor region with low level of economic development, it is pertinent to assume that the push factors have a decisive influence in defining the participation of these families in rural non-farm activities. That is to say, non-farm rural activities are fundamentally activities of “refuge” that allow the family to have access to a source of an immediate and relatively secure income – being less risky than agriculture – although participating in activities of low productivity. |
| Keywords: | income diversification, farm and non-farm activities, peasant economy, Peru |
| JEL: | D13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:1205&r=agr |
| By: | Pablo Martinelli (HEC Department, European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores a simple though neglected mechanism linking land inequality and inefficiency: market power. In underdeveloped economies with serious constraints on labour mobility, high ownership concentration will endow landowners with market power in local labour markets. The resulting equilibrium explains many of the often criticised features of pre-war Italian latifundia, without the need to factor in irrational behaviour (the preferred explanation of Italian traditional historians) or social institutions and capital market imperfections (explanations advanced by economists in different contexts). According to the model here explored the main effects of inequality are of a distributive rather than of a productive nature. The market power hypothesis is strongly supported by the available quantitative evidence provided by an unexploited dataset on all local labour markets of Italy at the end of the 1930s. |
| Keywords: | Monopsony, Agricultural labour markets, Land distribution, Inequality, Italy |
| JEL: | J42 J43 N54 O13 Q15 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0020&r=agr |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; Huang, Jikun; Rozelle, Scott |
| Keywords: | Gender, Labor supply, rural areas, Rural development, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1189&r=agr |
| By: | Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)) |
| Abstract: | Drought has sharply decreased the size of the US corn and soybean crops this year. While there is no way of knowing for sure how low yields will go, the continuation of hot and dry weather in the major corn and soybean producing areas indicates that yield losses could be of historic proportions. The potential economic impact of low yields—particularly corn yields—is heightened this year because of a low buffer stock of corn, and because 10 percent of our motor fuel supply comes from corn. This briefing paper presents preliminary estimates of the economic impacts of low US corn and soybeans yields. The impacts are estimated for the 2012–13 crop year that begins on September 1st. Because we do not know what future yields will be or what future gasoline prices will be, we make the preliminary estimates using a stochastic partial equilibrium model. This type of model solves for market-clearing prices for a large number of random “draws†of yields and gasoline prices. The model is calibrated to information that is available to us at the current time, including the USDA’s supply and demand projections and the level of futures prices for gasoline, corn, and ethanol. |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:12-pb7&r=agr |
| By: | Maystadt, Jean-François; Trinh Tan, Jean-François; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | Expectations are high that transition in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen will bring about more freedom, justice, and economic opportunities. However, experiences from other world regions show that countries in transition are at high risk of entering conflicts, which often come at large economic, social and political costs. In order to identify options on how conflict may be prevented in Arab transition countries, this paper assesses the key global drivers of conflicts based on a dataset from 1960 to 2010 and improved cross-country regression techniques. Results show that unlike in other studies where per capita incomes, inequality, and poor governance, among other factors, emerge as the major determinants of conflict, food security at macro- and micro-levels emerges as the main cause of conflicts in the Arab world. This "Arab exceptionalism in conflict" suggests that improving food security is not only important for improving the lives of rural and urban people; it is also likely to be the key for a peaceful transition. |
| Keywords: | food security, Transitional economies, Conflict, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1196&r=agr |
| By: | Anderson, Kym; Martin, Will; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses three questions relating to the very extensive use of the GTAP global trade protection database: Are there additional price-distorting policy instruments worthy of inclusion in the base year? What is the appropriate counterfactual set of price distortions in the year of concern (such as when a proposed reform is expected to be fully implemented, as distinct from the base year)? And how are the price distortions (e.g. tariff rates) on individual products aggregated to the GTAP product groups? We show the estimated welfare effects of policies can change substantially when more-appropriate measures of distortions are used. |
| Keywords: | agricultural protection growth; tariff aggregation; trade policy counterfactuals |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F17 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9083&r=agr |
| By: | Izumi Shirai (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the well-known Takedate Cooperativefs credit activities from 1907 until the 1930s. This cooperative established its credit division in 1914 because its members had difficulty raising money from the financial market after poor rice harvests. Additionally, the another purpose was to controlled member behavior by providing preferential financing terms to frequent users of its production and marketing activities and to those who obeyed its rules. This lending practice allowed cooperative members to grow apples as well as rice until the early 1920s. However, in the wake of poor business conditions after World War I, the cooperative reduced loan amounts, lent money only to cover living expenses, and pressed members to save money. The cooperativefs loan rate rose above that of the Aomori prefecturefs financial market, leading many competent members to withdraw their memberships. However, this action did not result in the stagnation of the cooperative. In Takedate village, the central area of the cooperative, peasants could still borrow money without security, and thus, 80% of farm households continued to grow apples, leading to greater affluence in the 1930s. |
| Keywords: | Japanese economic history, Japanese business history, agricultural cooperative, credit business |
| JEL: | N55 N85 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1214&r=agr |
| By: | Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)) |
| Abstract: | On August 10th, The USDA released updated estimates of the size of this year’s corn and soybean crops. Corn yields are now projected at 123.4 bushels per acre, which combined with a drop in projected harvested acres results in an estimate crop size of 10.8 billion bushels—down 17 percent from USDA’s July estimates. Soybean production is now estimated at 2.7 billion bushels—down 11.7 percent from July projections. The sharply lowered production estimates suggest that preliminary assessment of the impact of the drought on crop prices and biofuel production that I conducted last month needs to be updated. In the preliminary July assessment, I estimated that a waiver of the conventional ethanol mandate would reduce corn prices by an average of 4.8 percent across the 500 model outcomes considered. The now lower estimates of corn production imply that this estimated impact of a mandate waiver is too low. Lower corn and soybean production are not the only economic variables that have changed in the past month. The average gasoline price used in the July assessment was $2.50 per gallon, which was the average futures price for reformulated gasoline. The average price of the futures contracts from September 2012 to August 2013 is now $2.78 per gallon—up 11 percent. Higher gasoline prices imply greater market demand for ethanol, which reduces a mandate waiver’s impact on corn prices. The net effect of higher gasoline prices and lower crop size on crop prices, and the impact of the mandate waiver, can only be determined by re-running the model used in my July assessment. The results from these updated model runs are presented here. |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:12-pb8&r=agr |
| By: | Fondse, Mirjam; Wubben, Emiel F.M.; Kortstee, Harry; Pascucci, Stefano |
| Abstract: | Short food supply chains (SFSCs) are economic organizations which can contribute to rural development. We propose a first analysis of their main features and suggest a way for analysing them through the lens of organizational economics. SFSCs are based on proximity between consumers and producers, economic added-value, re-distributive principles and sustainability. They mainly rely on informal and socially-embedded governance mechanisms. We derive insights for better link SFSCs and policy design. |
| Keywords: | Short food supply chains, economic organizations, rural development, Industrial Organization, Q13, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa126:128205&r=agr |
| By: | Negro, Giacomo (Emory University); Hannan, Michael T. (Stanford University); Fassiotto, Magali A. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We propose that category membership can operate as a collective market signal for quality. This requires that gaining category membership is more costly for low-quality producers. The strength of such signals increases with the distinctiveness, or contrast, of the category. Our empirical study focuses on biodynamic and organic viticulture in Alsace. The codes for both categories proscribe the use of fertilizers and pesticides. But the biodynamic category has higher contrast due to additional farming rules and eccentric practices that make it stand out to a considerable degree. And, unlike the organic category, biodynamics is not perceived to overlap significantly with sustainable viticulture. We find that wineries of higher quality have higher hazards of becoming biodynamic but not organic. Ratings by critics tasting blind increase significantly for wineries after they become members of either the biodynamic or organic categories. However, a parallel analysis finds that ratings by critics who know the identity of the producer favor biodynamic but not organic wines. |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:2101&r=agr |
| By: | H. Allen Klaiber; V. Kerry Smith; Michael Kaminsky; Aaron Strong |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the seasonal and annual changes in marginal prices for water to estimate the price elasticity of demand by residential households for water. It uses the changes in distributions of water using the census block group levels in response to changes in marginal prices of water for matched months across years. This strategy reduces the interaction effects of outdoor use and demographic fact in determining responsiveness to price. By comparing years that vary in overall water availability the framework can recover measures of how responses to price vary with season and draught conditions. The application is the urban Phoenix metropolitan area. |
| JEL: | H42 Q25 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18293&r=agr |
| By: | Rosegrant, Mark W.; Ringler, Claudia; Zhu, Tingju; Tokgoz, Simla; Bhandary, Prapti |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:128295&r=agr |
| By: | rault, arnaud; gohin, alexandre |
| Abstract: | Visual presentation for the 2012 IAAE triennal conference. |
| Keywords: | dynamic computable general equilibrium, animal health, catastrophic risk, Demand and Price Analysis, Health Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:130976&r=agr |
| By: | Zilberman, David; Kim, Eunice; Kirshner, Sam; Kaplan, Scott |
| Abstract: | New discoveries in the life sciences and the challenge of climate change are leading to the emergence of the bioeconomy where basic methods of advanced biology are applied to produce a wide array of products while also improving environmental quality. The emergence of the bioeconomy is a continuing evolutionary process of transition from systems of mining nonrenewable resource to farming renewable ones. This transition benefits from modern tools of molecular biology that have expanded human capacity to breed new organisms and utilize them in order to increase productivity in agricultural production and fisheries as well as produce a wide array of products that were extracted in the past. This transition is leading to the integration of the agricultural sector with the energy and mineral sectors. The introduction of biotechnology has already improved productivity of medicine, as well as agriculture but in the case of agriculture, has encountered resistance and regulatory constraints. The evolution of the bioeconomy requires continuous public investment in research and innovation, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework and financial incentives and institutions that lead to continuous private sector investment in development and commercialization of new products. One of the big challenges is the development of a regulatory framework that will control possible human and environmental externalities from new biotechnology products, and at the same time not stifle innovation. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:128523&r=agr |
| By: | Ganesh-Kumar, A.; Prasad, Sanjay K.; Pullabhotla, Hemant |
| Keywords: | cereals, Supply and demand, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1186&r=agr |