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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2011‒01‒16
twenty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Timilsina, Govinda R.; Beghin, John C.; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mevel, Simon |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier, it would be significant in developing countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness,Food&Beverage Industry,Wetlands,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Renewable Energy |
| Date: | 2010–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5513&r=agr |
| By: | Anderson, Kym; Nelgen, Signe |
| Abstract: | National barriers to trade are often varied to insulate domestic markets from international price variability, especially following a sudden spike. This paper explores the extent of that behavior by governments in the case of agricultural products, particularly food staples whose prices have spiked three times over the past four decades. It does so using new annual estimates since 1955 of agricultural price distortions in 75 countries, updated to 2008. Responses by food importers to upward price spikes are shown to be as substantial as those by food exporters, thereby weakening the domestic price-stabilizing effect of intervention by exporters. They also add to the transfer of welfare to food-surplus from food-deficit countries -- the opposite of what is usually thought of when considering inter-sector trade retaliation. Phasing down World Trade Organization-bound import tariffs toward their applied rates would help reduce the legal opportunities for food-deficit countries to raise their import restrictions when international prices slump. To date there is no parallel discipline in the World Trade Organization that limits increases in export restrictions when prices spike upward, however. Bringing such discipline through new World Trade Organization rules could help alleviate the extent to which government responses to exogenous price spikes exacerbate those spikes. |
| Keywords: | Markets and Market Access,Emerging Markets,Food&Beverage Industry,Economic Theory&Research,Climate Change Economics |
| Date: | 2010–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5511&r=agr |
| By: | Anselm Eisentraut |
| Abstract: | Global biofuel production has been increasing rapidly over the last decade, but the expanding biofuel industry has recently raised important concerns. In particular, the sustainability of many first-generation biofuels – which are produced primarily from food crops such as grains, sugar cane and vegetable oils – has been increasingly questioned over concerns such as reported displacement of food-crops, effects on the environment and climate change. In general, there is growing consensus that if significant emission reductions in the transport sector are to be achieved, biofuel technologies must become more efficient in terms of net lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions while at the same time be socially and environmentally sustainable. It is increasingly understood that most first-generation biofuels, with the exception of sugar cane ethanol, will likely have a limited role in the future transport fuel mix. The increasing criticism of the sustainability of many first-generation biofuels has raised attention to the potential of so-called second-generation biofuels. Depending on the feedstock choice and the cultivation technique, second-generation biofuel production has the potential to provide benefits such as consuming waste residues and making use of abandoned land. In this way, the new fuels could offer considerable potential to promote rural development and improve economic conditions in emerging and developing regions. However, while second-generation biofuel crops and production technologies are more efficient, their production could become unsustainable if they compete with food crops for available land. Thus, their sustainability will depend on whether producers comply with criteria like minimum lifecycle GHG reductions, including land use change, and social standards. |
| Date: | 2010–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ieaaaa:2010/1-en&r=agr |
| By: | Tomoya Matsumoto (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Takashi Yamano (Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | In this chapter, we evaluate the impact of fertilizer credit on crop choice, crop yield, and income using two-year panel data of 420 households in rural Ethiopia. The fertilizer credit is found to increase input application for crop production. As a consequence, it has a substantial impact on the yield of teff. We also find that the impact on net crop income per cultivated area and also on per capita income is marginal because of the low profitability due to the low output price and high input cost of agricultural production. |
| Keywords: | Input Credit, Fertilizer Policy, Agricultural Technology, Crop Production, Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:10-23&r=agr |
| By: | Bartolini, Fabio; Sardonini, Laura; Viaggi, Davide |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to identify the determinants of the intention to expand farm size under two different policy scenarios 1) baseline, that implies the current Health Check policy, and 2) a NO-CAP scenario, providing a full removing of all CAP payments. Results highlight that farm/farmer and household characteristics such as age, amount of SFP and land size are determinants of farm size expansion under baseline scenario. Otherwise, under NO-CAP scenario, farm specialisation and organisational variables became significant in explaining the farm size expansion. |
| Keywords: | farm expansion; multinomial logit; stated intentions |
| JEL: | Q1 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2010–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:24011&r=agr |
| By: | Takashi Yamano (Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Yoko Kijima (Tsukuba University) |
| Abstract: | We identify the major factors affecting farm and nonfarm income by using panel data in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. We supplement the panel data with household-level soil fertility data and road distance data to the nearest urban center. The proportion of the loose surface roads, instead of tarmac roads, has a clear negative association with crop income, livestock income, and per capita income in both Kenya and Uganda. We also find that soil fertility has a clear positive association with crop and livestock incomes in Kenya, but not in Uganda and Ethiopia. In Kenya, farmers produce not only cereal crops but also high value crops and engage in dairy and other livestock production if the fertility of the soil is good. |
| Keywords: | Soil Fertility, Market Access, Poverty, Road Infrastructure, East Africa |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:10-22&r=agr |
| By: | Raúl Serranoa (Department of Business Administration, Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain.); Vicente Pinilla (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History, Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain.) |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:10-06&r=agr |
| By: | Makoka, Donald; Chitika, Rollins; Simtowe, Franklin |
| Abstract: | Total LandCare Malawi (TLC) is implementing a three-year USAID-funded Spice Promotion in Commercial Enterprises (SPICE) project in collaboration with NALI Limited and ASSNAP. The main aim of the project is to link small-scale spice producers to high-value markets and develop the competitiveness of bird’s eye chillies and paprika through commercial upgrading of the major players in their respective value chains. Under the SPICE project, TLC commissioned the paprika and bird’s eye chillies’ value chain study in February 2010 with the overall objective of providing technical guidance, professional expertise and knowledge on the current status of the paprika and bird’s eye chillies sector in Malawi and the prospects for value addition of the two crops in Malawi. The study covered Dowa, Dedza, Ntcheu, Salima, Nkhotakota, Nkhatabay, Mzimba and Thyolo districts. A value chain approach was used to identify the main players in paprika and bird’s eye chillies sub-sectors, the governance of the respective value chains, the vertical and horizontal linkages along the value chains and opportunities for value chain upgrading. A review of the different policies that relate to agriculture was also done to highlight the extent to which different policies promote or inhibit paprika and bird’s eye chillies production and marketing in Malawi. An analysis of the institutional framework was also conducted to determine the degree of coordination between different institutions in the paprika and bird’s eye chillies sub-sector. Among the major findings of the study, male farmers dominate the production of both paprika and bird’s eye chillies in Malawi and the two crops are largely sold to large-scale traders, most of whom are also exporters of the commodities. The smallholder farmers allocated relatively less land (18 percent) to paprika production in 2009/2010 season, compared to 40 percent of land to bird’s eye chillies. Although production is dominated by small-scale farmers, a number of commercial producers are also involved, such as Africa Invest Malawi. Some of the commercial producers are also engaged in out-grower schemes with the smallholder farmers. It was also observed that a large proportion of the farmers of both paprika and chillies access their seed through market-based sources. Among the major constraints facing the smallholder farmers is access to market information, especially as it relates to prices. Gross margins for bird’s eye chillies were found to be significantly higher (MK79,057/Ha) than that of paprika in the study areas (MK11,553/Ha). The Malawi paprika value chain has a number of actors. Paprika is mostly grown by smallholder producers, with Africa Invest Malawi being the only commercial producer. Apart from NALI LTD that buys fresh paprika as an ingredient into its Mango achar, most of the paprika is sold to large-scale traders/players as de-seeded pods. Most of the Malawi paprika is exported to spice manufacturing companies and brokers in South Africa. The brokers then export the product to Europe and USA, among other markets. The governance of the Malawi paprika value chain rests with the final buyers. In this buyer-driven chain, the quality demanded by the international buyers is enforced through prices. Similarly, the bird’s eye chilli value chain also has few players. The producers are mostly smallholder farmers, who sell their dry chillies to large-scale traders (Nali LTD, Africa Invest Malawi, Cheetah Malawi LTD, and Duconti Produce, among others). The large-scale traders export the commodity mostly to brokers in South Africa, and to end-users in Europe, the United Kingdom and others parts of the developed world. In this buyer-driven chain, prices are dictated by the final consumers. In order to improve the paprika and bird’s eye chillies sector in Malawi, there is an urgent need to substantially increase the production levels and the productivity of the two crops. Specifically, there is need to improve the paprika and bird’s eye chillies seed system; improve farmer’s agronomic practices through the provision of quality agricultural extension services and also improve the organization of farmers into groups. In order to improve marketing of the two commodities there is need to promote legally-binding contracts between producers and buyers, promote value-adding activities and processes so that different players experience value chain upgrading, promote domestic demand for chillies and paprika, promote vertical linkages among the buyers of paprika and chillies, and also improve the quality, timeliness and utilization of market information. On the policy front, there is an urgent need to develop a horticultural policy, as the sector is operating without a policy, an institutional framework or a legislative framework. It is expected that the three-year SPICE project will help the targeted farmers to address the major constraints and challenges highlighted in this report. |
| Keywords: | value chain analysis; paprika; bird's eye chillies; Malawi |
| JEL: | Q0 |
| Date: | 2010–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27785&r=agr |
| By: | Nasir nadeem, Dr.; khalid Mushtaq, Dr. |
| Abstract: | In this study long run relationship between agricultural research and TFP (total factor productivity) is estimated by using Cointegration technique for 1970-2005. The results of the long run relationship between TFP and agricultural research indicate that agricultural research has a significant and positive impact on TFP. The estimated coefficient of research is 0.571 and it is significant at 1 percent level of significance. Granger-causality tests show a bidirectional relationship between research and productivity. The estimate of marginal internal rate of return (MIRR) to research is found to be 73 percent, indicating that Punjab agricultural research system remained productive. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; TFP; Cointegration; MIRR; Granger Causality. |
| JEL: | Q16 O30 O13 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27769&r=agr |
| By: | Takashi Yamano (Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Ayumi Arai (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | In this chapter, we analyze the farm-market price spreads of maize in Kenya and Uganda to examine how agricultural sectors are integrated with local markets. The farm-market price spread is calculated by subtracting the farm-gate price from the market price at the nearest maize market. We find that the farm-market price spread of maize is about 15 and 33 percent of the market price in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. In both countries, the price spread increases by 2 percentage points for each additional driving hour away from the nearest maize market. While the former finding suggests that the overall marketing costs are lower in Kenya than in Uganda, the latter finding indicates that reductions in transportation costs will increase the farmer prices of maize in both countries. |
| Keywords: | Price Spread, Market, Maize, Kenya, Uganda |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:10-25&r=agr |
| By: | Rico Ihle (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | Maize is a major staple food in Sub-Saharan Africa. Monthly maize prices in Tanzania are analyzed since the country is an important maize producer and exporter in East Africa. We analyze price transmission between the five most important urban regions of Tanzania between 2000 and 2008 which correspond to major maize production or consumption areas. We propose a novel method for the analysis. The semiparametric vector error-correction model allows the partial impact of the past deviations from price equilibria on current price changes to be potentially nonlinear. The nonparametric estimates of these partial influences suggest that they can be adequately modeled by linear functions. |
| Keywords: | cointegration; maize; nonlinear time series model; price transmission; semiparametric model; Tanzania |
| JEL: | C32 Q11 Q13 |
| Date: | 2011–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:054&r=agr |
| By: | Takashi Yamano (Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Ayumi Arai (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | In this chapter, we investigate the determinants of inorganic fertilizer use on major cereal crops in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda. By using panel data in the three countries, we estimate the determinants of the fertilizer price and application at the household level and evaluate the fertilizer policies in each country. The determinants of the DAP price and application in Kenya can be mostly explained by market forces and agro-ecological factors, suggesting that market-based policies would be effective. In Ethiopia, on the other hand, the estimation results indicate that policy related factors determine the fertilizer price and application. Although the subsidy program in Ethiopia may contribute to poverty alleviation, technical returns from such programs could be low. Uganda should learn from the experience from these two neighboring countries. |
| Keywords: | Fertilizer Price, Fertilizer Policy, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:10-24&r=agr |
| By: | Celine Nauges (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Chris O'Donnell (School of Economics, University of Queensland); John Quiggin (School of Economics, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we present one of the first real-world empirical applications of state-contingent production theory. Our state-contingent behavioral model allows us to analyze production under both inefficiency and uncertainty without regard to the nature of producer risk preferences. Using farm data for Finland, we estimate a flexible production model that permits substitutability between state-contingent outputs. We test empirically, and reject, an assumption that has been implicit in almost all efficiency studies conducted in the last three decades, namely that the production technology is output-cubical, i.e., that outputs are not substitutable between states of nature. |
| Keywords: | state-contingent; production; uncertainty |
| JEL: | Q10 Q24 Q25 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r10_2&r=agr |
| By: | de Walque, Damien; Kazianga, Harounan; Over, Mead; Vaillant, Julia |
| Abstract: | Using panel data from Mozambique collected in 2007 and 2008, the authors explore the impact of the food crisis on the welfare of households living with HIV/AIDS. The analysis finds that there has been a real deterioration of welfare in terms of income, food consumption, and nutritional status in Mozambique between 2007 and 2008, among both HIV and comparison households. However, HIV households have not suffered more from the crisis than others. Results on the evolution of labor force participation suggest that initiation of treatment and better services in health facilities have counter-balanced the effect of the crisis by improving the health of patients and their labor force participation. In addition, the authors look at the effect of the change in welfare on the frequency of visits to a health facility of patients and on their treatment outcomes. Both variables can proxy for adherence to treatment. This is a particularly crucial issue as it affects both the health of the patient and public health, because sub-optimal adherence leads to the development of resistant forms of the virus. The paper finds no effect of the change in welfare on the frequency of visits, but does find that people who experienced a negative income shock also experienced a reduction or a slower progression in treatment outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Disease Control&Prevention,Food&Beverage Industry,Gender and Health,Food Security |
| Date: | 2011–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5522&r=agr |
| By: | Buttenheim, Alison; Alderman, Harold; Friedman, Jed |
| Abstract: | Despite the popularity and widespread implementation of school feeding programs, evidence on the impact of school feeding on school participation and nutritional status is mixed. This study evaluates school feeding programs in three northern districts of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). Feeding modalities included on-site feeding, take-home rations, and a combination. District-level implementation of the intervention sites and selective take-up present considerable evaluation challenges. To address these limitations, the authors use difference-in-difference estimators with propensity-score weighting to construct two plausible counterfactuals. They find minimal evidence that the school feeding schemes increased enrollment or improved children’s nutritional status. Several robustness checks and possible explanations for null findings are presented. |
| Keywords: | Education For All,Youth and Governance,Nutrition,Primary Education,Food&Beverage Industry |
| Date: | 2011–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5518&r=agr |
| By: | Sriram Shankar (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Chris O'Donnell (School of Economics, University of Queensland); John Quiggin (School of Economics, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | In this article we model production technology in a state-contingent framework. Our model analyzes production under uncertainty without being explicit about the nature of producer risk preferences. In our model producers’ risk preferences are captured by the risk-neutral probabilities they assign to the different states of nature. Using a state-general state-contingent specification of technology we show that rational producers who encounter the same stochastic technology can make significantly different production choices. Further, we develop an econometric methodology to estimate the risk-neutral probabilities and the parameters of stochastic technology when there are two states of nature and only one of which is observed. Finally, we simulate data based on our state-general state-contingent specification of technology. Biased estimates of the technology parameters are obtained when we apply conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator on the simulated data. |
| Keywords: | CES, Cobb-Douglas, OLS, output-cubical, risk-neutral, state-allocable, state-contingent |
| JEL: | C15 C63 D21 D81 Q10 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsm:riskun:r10_3&r=agr |
| By: | Hwang, Tsorng-Chyi; Chen, Meng-Gu; Chang, Chia-Lin |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the effectiveness of the price stabilization mechanism for the broiler and poultry industry in Taiwan during the period 1999 to 2008. After presenting some background information on the domestic marketing system and price stabilization mechanisms for the broiler and pork industry in Taiwan, the paper discusses the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) methodology. Monthly hog and broiler price data from 1999 to 2008 at farm, import and retail levels are analyzed using the nonlinear, non-asymmetric logistic STAR model in order to determine price transmission structure. A price threshold parameter is used so that price transmission levels can vary, thereby allowing an examination of the efficacy with which the hog and broiler price stabilization mechanisms take effect. |
| Keywords: | Broiler industry; Pork industry; Price stabilization; Domestic marketing system; Smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) methodology. |
| JEL: | Q11 C22 Q14 C01 |
| Date: | 2010–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:15552&r=agr |
| By: | Rico Ihle (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Joseph Amikuzuno (University for Development Studies, Ghana.) |
| Abstract: | We assess market integration and price transmission of perishable agricultural produce in Sub-Saharan Africa by studying Ghanaian tomato markets which are characterized by pronounced seasonality in production and trade flows. We analyse the tomato markets of Ghana by simultaneously regarding its five most important markets, Navrongo, Techiman, Kumasi, Tamale and Accra, in a multivariate asymmetric price transmission framework. The estimation of the model is based on a unique dataset and on a modified version of the Johansen estimation procedure which is suitable for estimating such multivariate models. We estimate the price transmission parameters for four regimes which are a combination of the seasonal patterns in trade flows and asymmetries in the long-run price equilibrium between the most important production region (Techiman) and the most important consumption centre for tomatoes (Accra). We find strong evidence for integration of the five markets. In general, price transmission appears to be fast. Disequilibria mainly trigger price responses in the two production regions of Navrongo and Techiman. The regimes are found to matter for the whole system of tomato markets. Disequilibrium is shown to spillover between the price relationships. Consequently, tomato markets in Ghana appear to be integrated and function very well since price signals are rapidly passed through the country. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric price transmission; cointegration; Ghana; regime-dependent model; seasonality; tomato; vector error-correction model |
| JEL: | C32 Q11 Q13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2011–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:053&r=agr |
| By: | Chen, Ping-Yu; Chang, Chia-Lin; Chen, Chi-Chung |
| Abstract: | The major contribution of this study is to combines both climatic and macroeconomic factors simultaneously in the estimation of mortality using the capital city of 22 OECD countries from the period 1990 to 2008. The empirical results provide strong evidences that higher income and a lower unemployment rate could reduce mortality rates, while the increases in precipitation and temperature variation have significantly positive impacts on the mortality rates. The effects of changing average temperature on mortality rates in summer and winter are asymmetrical and also depend on the location. Combining the future climate change scenarios with the estimation outcomes show that mortality rates in OECD countries in 2100 will be increased by 3.77% to 5.89%. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; mortality; panel data model |
| JEL: | I12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27915&r=agr |
| By: | Pierre-Andre Chiappori; Krislert Samphantharak; Sam Schulhofer-Wohl |
| Abstract: | We measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages using a full risk-sharing model and complement the results with a measure based on optimal portfolio choice. Among households with relatives living in the same village, full insurance cannot be rejected, suggesting that relatives provide something close to a complete-markets consumption allocation. There is substantial heterogeneity in risk preferences estimated from the full-insurance model, positively correlated in most villages with portfolio-choice estimates. The heterogeneity matters for policy: Although the average household would benefit from eliminating village-level risk, less-risk-averse households who are paid to absorb that risk would be worse off. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:683&r=agr |
| By: | Cheung, Maria (Department of Economics); Perotta, Maria (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Food for education (FFE) programs, which consist of meals served in school and in some cases take-home rations and deworming programs conditional on school attendance, are considered a powerful tool to improve educational out- comes, particularly in areas where school participation is initially low. Com- pared to other programs, such as conditional cash transfers and scholarships, school meals may provide a stronger incentive to attend school because chil- dren must be in school in order to receive the rations, and have the potential to improve nutritional and general health status as well. In this paper, we nd that the Cambodia FFE, that was implemented in six Cambodian regions be- tween 1999 and 2003, increased enrollment, school attendance and completed education. We also ask who bene ted the most, and how cost-eective such a program is compared to other types of interventions. |
| Keywords: | School meals; Primary education; Program evaluation; Cambodia |
| JEL: | D61 I20 I38 O22 O53 |
| Date: | 2011–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0766&r=agr |