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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Ilmakunnas, Ilari (The Finnish Centre for Pensions); Sten-Gahmberg, Susanna; Hakola, Timopekka |
| Abstract: | In 2017, Finland introduced a partial old-age pension scheme, allowing individuals to claim either 25 or 50 percent of their old-age pension after turning 61, irrespective of their employment status. Claiming a partial pension before the statutory retirement age results in a permanent reduction of the full old-age pension. Due to the rapid rise in consumer prices in 2022, individuals who claimed their pension before the end of 2022 benefited from a three-percentage points higher index adjustment in 2023, resulting in a permanently higher pension compared to those who claimed their pension in early 2023. In this study, we assess the causal effect of the financial incentive arising from the exceptional index adjustment on pension take-up using regression discontinuity design and full population register data. We also analyse differences in responses by socioeconomic status and gender. The extraordinary pension index adjustment increased the probability of claiming the partial old-age pension in the first month after becoming eligible for it by around 8 percentage points, or around 80 per cent. The effect is explained by individuals claiming a pension sooner than they would have in the absence of the exceptional index adjustment. Individuals with a higher pension accrual, higher earnings, or with upper tertiary education were more likely than others to respond to the index adjustment. |
| Date: | 2025–01–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n3t2s |
| By: | Jamie Hentall-MacCuish (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/59 |
| By: | Yuchen Lu (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the rapid increase in the population of foreign residents in Japan has spurred more frequent discussions on social security issues concerning this group. Despite this, the non-enrollment rate in the national pension among foreign residents remains high, and the specific factors contributing to their non-enrollment remain unclear. This study conducted the first empirical analysis on the factors leading to the non-enrollment of foreign residents in Japan’s national pension using publicly available data. The results indicate that residence statuses restricted by work activities, liquidity constraints, years of education, and enrollment in private pensions in Japan or public pensions in other countries significantly influence the likelihood of foreign residents enrolling in Japan’s national pension. Additionally, the study suggests that whether a foreign resident’s country or region of nationality possesses a universal pension plan or an equivalent system is a potential factor affecting their enrollment in Japan’s national pension. This effect is particularly pronounced among foreign student populations. |
| Keywords: | Foreign residents, Public pension, Social security, Probit regression analysis |
| JEL: | H55 F54 F21 |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-027 |
| By: | van de Kraats, Coen (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Galama, Titus (University of Southern California); Lindeboom, Maarten (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Deng, Zichen (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that the social norm (expectation) that adults work has a substantial detrimental causal effect on the mental well-being of unemployed men in mid-life, as substantial as, e.g., the detriment of being widowed. As their peers in age retire and the social norm weakens, the mental well-being of the unemployed improves. Using data on individuals aged 50+ from 10 European countries, we identify the social norm of work effect using exogenous variation in the earliest eligibility age for old-age public pensions across countries and birth cohorts. |
| Keywords: | mental well-being, social norm of work, retirement institution |
| JEL: | I10 I31 J60 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17586 |
| By: | Lin, Zhuoer; Wang, Yi; Gill, Thomas M.; Chen, Xi |
| Abstract: | Disparities in cognition persist between non-Hispanic Black (hereafter, Black) and non-Hispanic White (hereafter, White) older adults, and are possibly influenced by early educational differences stemming from structural racism. However, the relationship between school racial segregation and later-life cognition remains underexplored. We examined a nationally sample of older Americans from the Health and Retirement Study. Utilizing childhood residence data and cognitive assessment data (1995-2018) for Black and White participants aged 65 and older, Black-White dissimilarity index for public elementary schools measuring school segregation, multilevel analyses revealed a significant negative association between school segregation and later-life cognitive outcomes among Black participants, but not among White participants. Potential mediators across the life course, including educational attainment, explained 58-73% of the association, yet the associations remained large and significant among Black participants for all outcomes. Given the rising trend of school segregation in the US, educational policies aimed at reducing segregation are crucial to address health inequities. Clinicians can leverage patients' early-life educational circumstances to promote screening, prevention, and management of cognitive disorders. |
| Keywords: | early-life circumstances, school segregation, quality of education, racial disparity, cognition, dementia, health equity |
| JEL: | I14 I24 I10 J14 J15 H75 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1527 |
| By: | Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Ortiz, Ma. Kristina P.; Baino, Madeleine Louise S.; Ruiz, Mark Gerald C.; Astilla-Magoncia, Danika; Patalinghug, Epictetus E. |
| Abstract: | This study's third phase evaluates the regulatory impact analysis (RIA) of policy recommendations aimed at enhancing the Philippine Retirement Authority's (PRA) retirement program, focusing on competitiveness and sustainability. Utilizing methodologies such as benefit-cost analysis, breakeven analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, and regression analysis, the study compares targeting foreign retirees aged 40 and above with those aged 50 and above, assesses the cost-effectiveness of current PRA policies, and determines breakeven volumes. Findings reveal that lowering the minimum retirement age to 35 (as a proxy for 40) improved the benefit-cost ratio compared to when the age requirement was 50. However, since 2017, the benefit-cost ratio for the 35+ program has declined due to rising costs outpacing benefits. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows a significant increase in cost-to-retiree ratios post-2017. Breakeven analysis indicates that the number of retirees required ranges from 652 to 759, with breakeven sales volumes between PHP 35 million and PHP 39 million, though these figures have escalated post-2017. Regression analysis identifies that consumer sentiment, exchange rates, and real estate expenditures positively impact foreign retiree volumes, with forecasts showing an upward trend, though lower than pre-pandemic levels. The study concludes that the Philippine retirement industry remains economically viable and attractive. It suggests that PRA's competitiveness does not hinge on being a low-cost provider but rather on a targeted market strategy that builds customer loyalty. Embracing a younger retiree age requirement should be balanced with managing public perceptions and legislative concerns regarding program viability and social impacts. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Philippine Retirement Authority;regulatory impact analysis;benefit-cost analysis;breakeven analysis;cost-effectiveness analysis;minimum retirement age;PRA |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-13 |
| By: | Courtney Coile (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Jonathan Cribb (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Carl Emmerson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Laurence O'Brien (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/01 |
| By: | Andrew Binning; Susie McKenzie; Murat Özbilgin; Christie Smith (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | Like many developed countries, New Zealand’s population is ageing. Its population is living longer and fertility rates have fallen, shifting the age composition towards older generations. This change in demographics is expected to continue into the future. In this paper, we explore a demographic model based on three core components: fertility rates, survival probabilities, and net migration. We illustrate how varying the assumptions affects the size and age-composition of the long-run population. The baseline projections indicate that New Zealand’s population could reach approximately 7.5 million beyond 2100, though there is considerable uncertainty about all of the demographic assumptions that underpin such a long-run projection. Given the fertility rates that currently prevail in New Zealand, net migration is likely to play a large role in maintaining New Zealand’s population. If current sub-replacement fertility rates continue, New Zealand’s population would eventually decline to zero if there was no net migration inflow. These demographic trends have implications for many important areas of fiscal policy including superannuation, health, education, and taxation. Population ageing is expected to substantially increase the fiscal cost of superannuation and health care. In related analysis, the Treasury is developing an overlapping generations (OLG) model to explore how the demographic trends identified here might influence private behaviour, including participation in the labour force, saving, and capital accumulation. This OLG framework also enables us to consider how private behaviour interacts with different fiscal policies, and how such policies would influence fiscal sustainability and the wellbeing of different generations. |
| JEL: | J11 H55 |
| Date: | 2024–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztans:an24/08 |
| By: | Pepin, Gabrielle (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Truskinovsky, Yulya (Wayne State University, Detroit) |
| Abstract: | As the U.S. population ages, family caregivers face substantial out-of-pocket costs and financial risks while providing the majority of long-term care. The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC), a tax credit based on income and care spending, subsidizes caregiving expenses but has low participation among adult caregivers. This paper evaluates the CDCC's current structure, documenting its limited impact on reducing caregiving costs and examining reforms to increase its utility for adult caregivers. Simulations of proposed changes—higher benefits, refundability, and relaxed eligibility requirements—demonstrate potential to expand access and enhance support for family caregivers within the existing policy framework. |
| Keywords: | adult care, Child and Dependent Care Credit, American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, participation, eligibility |
| JEL: | H24 J14 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17560 |
| By: | Bergmann, Lea; Heger, Dörte; Wuckel, Christiane |
| Abstract: | A hospital stay dramatically increases the risk that an elderly person will require long-term care. Due to increasing staff shortages in German nursing homes, patients who require nursing home care directly after a hospital stay often struggle to find a nursing home bed. This paper studies how hospital length of stay differs between care dependent individuals requiring and not requiring a nursing home bed, controlling for potential health differences between these groups. We find that the need for a nursing home bed is associated with approximately a 40% increase in length of stay. Since hospital care is much more expensive than nursing home care, bed-blocking is not only a concern for the patients but also for public policy. |
| Abstract: | Ein Krankenhausaufenthalt erhöht das Risiko, dass ein älterer Mensch pflegebedürftig wird, signifikant. Aufgrund des zunehmenden Personalmangels in deutschen Pflegeheimen haben Patienten, die unmittelbar nach einem Krankenhausaufenthalt erstmals einen Pflegeheimplatz benötigen, oft Schwierigkeiten, einen Pflegeheimplatz zu finden. Wir untersuchen, wie sich die Verweildauer im Krankenhaus zwischen pflegebedürftigen Personen, die einen Pflegeheimplatz benötigen, und solchen, die keinen benötigen, unterscheidet. Dabei wird für mögliche gesundheitliche Unterschiede zwischen diesen Gruppen kontrolliert. Wir stellen fest, dass der Bedarf für einen Pflegeheimplatz mit einem Anstieg der Krankenhausverweildauer um etwa 40 % verbunden ist. Da die Krankenhausversorgung wesentlich teurer ist als die Pflege in einem Pflegeheim, ist die längere Krankenhausverweildauer nicht nur ein Problem für die Patienten, sondern auch für die Politik. |
| Keywords: | Capacity, personnel shortage, long-term care, nursing and care homes, bed-blocking |
| JEL: | I11 J63 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:306838 |
| By: | Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Vargas, Anna Rita P.; Baino, Madeleine Louise S.; Ruiz, Mark Gerald C.; Astilla-Magoncia, Danika |
| Abstract: | The Philippines has introduced initiatives to attract retirement migrants, including visa and residence permit programs and various incentives. Central to these efforts is the Special Resident Retiree’s Visa (SRRV), managed by the Philippine Retirement Authority (PRA). The SRRV offers a nonimmigrant visa to foreign nationals and former Filipinos, allowing for indefinite stays and multiple entries. This paper, part of a three-part research series, aims to assess the competitiveness of PRA’s retirement program compared to neighboring countries, profile prospective retirees, and identify ways to enhance program effectiveness. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study integrates quantitative and qualitative analyses, including competitor SWOT analysis, customer feedback, and value chain evaluation. It examines literature on retirement migration trends and conducts key informant interviews with retirees and PRA-affiliated entities. Findings reveal that while the Philippines' SRRV program is attractive due to lower financial requirements and indefinite stay privileges, it lags behind countries like Thailand and Malaysia in attracting retirees. Issues such as visa processing delays, unclear requirements, and limited post-visa services detract from its appeal. Additionally, retirees are often younger than expected, and most come from high-income backgrounds. To improve, the PRA must address processing delays, enhance after-sales services, and expand the retirement care industry. Collaboration with stakeholders and better information dissemination are essential. The study concludes that a comprehensive industry roadmap is needed to position the Philippines as a leading retirement destination amidst evolving global trends and local challenges. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | retirement migration;competitiveness;retirement visa program;retirement care industry |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-11 |
| By: | Ponthiere, Gregory |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the potential role of higher education subsidies as an insurance device against the risk of having a short life, that is, as a device reducing the variance in lifetime well-being due to unequal longevities. We use a two-period dynamic OLG economy with human capital and risky lifetime to study the impact of a subsidy on higher education (financed by taxing labor earnings at older ages) on the distribution of lifetime well-being between long-lived and short-lived individuals. It is shown that, whereas the subsidy on higher education improves necessarily the lot of short-lived individuals in comparison to the laissez-faire, it is only when the subsidy is higher than a critical threshold that this reduces inequalities in lifetime well-being between long-lived and short-lived individuals. Whether one adopts the utilitarian or the ex post egalitarian social welfare function, the optimal subsidy on higher education lies above the critical threshold, but is larger under the latter social objective. |
| Keywords: | higher education, mortality risk, insurance, longevity, human capital |
| JEL: | I25 I28 I31 J17 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1528 |
| By: | Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Vargas, Anna Rita P.; Baino, Madeleine Louise S.; Astilla-Magoncia, Danika; Patalinghug, Epictetus E. |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the Philippine Retirement Authority's (PRA) current program and business model. Established by Executive Order No. 1037 in 1985, the PRA aims to position the Philippines as a prime retirement destination, contributing to the country's social and economic development. Utilizing GAP and SWOT analyses, the research explores potential enhancements to PRA’s business strategy, guided by Porter's competitive advantage model and Prahalad and Hamel's core competencies framework. In addition, the analysis supplements the analytical frameworks with a strategic agenda that covers a discussion of five strategic dimensions: 1. PRA's goal; 2. PRA’s source of market or competitive advantage; 3. PRA's major source of core competence; 4. PRA's current business model; and 5. PRA's strategies in specific management functions. The findings reveal PRA's commendable financial performance from 1986 to 2021, achieving fiscal autonomy in 1993. As of December 31, 2021, the agency reported significant financial metrics per retiree. The GAP analysis suggests two pathways for performance improvement: intensifying efforts to meet targets or recalibrating targets to align with available resources, with the SWOT analysis supporting the latter. Recommendations include enhancing SRRV benefits with a focus on efficient processing and registration, developing a medium-term plan detailing corporate goals and necessary initiatives, promoting a brand identity synonymous with exceptional customer service and the warmth of Philippine hospitality, collaborating with the Department of Tourism to support retirement promotion, and adopting a specialization model to better serve targeted customer segments and regions. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Philippine Retirement Authority (PRA);GAP analysis;SWOT analysis;business model;competitive advantage;retirement |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-12 |
| By: | Adji Fatou Diagne |
| Abstract: | Due to their growth, increasing performance, and significant contributions to the United States economy, women-owned businesses have spurred the interest of policymakers, researchers, and advocacy groups. Using various data products from the Census Bureau’s Business Demographics Program, this study examines how women business ownership changes over time by age. We find that young owners experienced growth in ownership between 2012 and 2020 and that younger employer businesses were mostly owned by women under the age of 35 in 2021. We show that among women aged 45 to 54 and those aged 55 to 64 ownership rates declined 5.5% and 4.8% between 2012 and 2020, implying an acceleration in the drop out of entrepreneurship for mid to late career age groups. We also show that older owners operate most businesses in capital-intensive industries, had more prior businesses, and higher rates of selling their most recently started businesses. Finally, we find that age groups often characterized as childbearing ages found balancing work and family as key drivers of their decision to start a business. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-71 |