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on Economics of Ageing |
By: | Riccardo Magnani (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
Abstract: | Several countries have recently introduced reforms that aim to increase the neutrality of their pension system by introducing an incentives-disincentives mechanism or by replacing their traditional defined-benefit system with a Notional Defined Contribution method. This paper evaluates the financial effects of an increase in the minimum retirement age in countries where a Notional Defined Contribution system exists. We show that such a reform produces a positive effect on the financial situation of the pension system (by generating surpluses or by reducing deficits) in the short and in the medium run, but it becomes completely ineffective in the long run. This result implies that in countries where the pension system is sufficiently neutral such a reform is not appropriate to solve the problem of population ageing which is a long-run problem. |
Keywords: | Pension finance,Retirement policies,Notional Defined Contribution systems,Minimum retirement age,Population ageing ,Pension economics |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01362459&r=age |
By: | Andreas Kappeler; Andrés Fuentes Hutfilter; Dorothee Schneider; Naomitsu Yashiro; Eun Jung Kim; Giovanni Maria Semeraro |
Abstract: | Population ageing is setting in earlier in Germany than in most other OECD economies and will be marked. It could lead to a substantial decline in employment, weighing on GDP per capita, and will raise demand for health-related public services. Germany has already implemented far-reaching reforms to mitigate the implications of ageing for per capita income, well-being and the sustainability of public finances. Nonetheless, continued efforts are needed to help older workers to improve their work-life balance and adjust their working hours to their ability and desire to work. Moreover, stressful working conditions and unhealthy lifestyles contribute to poor self-reported health and reduce the ability and willingness to work at higher age. There is scope to promote life-long learning. As the generosity of the public pension system will diminish, the contribution of private pensions to ensure pension adequacy needs to be strengthened. Promouvoir le bien-être dans une société vieillissante en Allemagne Le vieillissement démographique sera marqué en Allemagne, où il s’est amorcé plus tôt que dans la plupart des autres économies de l’OCDE. Il pourrait conduire à un recul important de l’emploi, ce qui pèserait sur le PIB par habitant, tout en augmentant la demande de services publics liés à la santé. L’Allemagne a déjà mis en oeuvre de vastes réformes destinées à limiter les incidences du vieillissement de sa population au regard du revenu par habitant, du bien-être et de la viabilité des finances publiques. Cependant, des efforts supplémentaires s’imposent pour aider les travailleurs âgés à améliorer l’équilibre entre vie professionnelle et vie privée et à adapter le nombre d’heures travaillées à leurs capacités et à leurs souhaits. De plus, des conditions de travail difficiles et des modes de vie préjudiciables à la santé contribuent à un mauvais état de santé autodéclaré et réduisent la capacité et la volonté de reporter le départ à la retraite. Il serait possible de développer la formation tout au long de la vie. Par ailleurs, dans la mesure où la générosité du système public de retraite ne pourra être maintenue, il convient d’accroître la contribution des régimes privés afin de garantir des niveaux de pension appropriés. |
Keywords: | health, skills, demographic change, pension system |
JEL: | E24 I31 J11 |
Date: | 2016–09–21 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1327-en&r=age |
By: | Loumrhari, Ghizlan |
Abstract: | This paper is interested in the question of the social pensions. In Morocco a big part of the elderly in Morocco perceives no pension and no transfer of any form. To solve the problem of the poverty of the elderly persons passes by the implementation of a social pension. This article is dedicated in particular, on examination of the situation of the elderly in Morocco, in review of literature of the effects of the social pensions and in micro-simulation, in the case of Morocco, effects of the introduction of a social pension. The results show that the implementation of a social pension of an equivalent amount at the poverty line allows to eradicate the poverty of the elderly and to reduce the disparities. This policy is all the more interesting as its cost does not seem exaggerated. When this pension is targeted its cost is 0.33 % of the GDP. |
Keywords: | Régimes de retraite, pensions sociales, pauvreté des personnes âgées, Maroc. |
JEL: | H3 H55 I3 J26 |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:74076&r=age |
By: | Dolls, Mathias; Doerrenberg, Philipp; Peichl, Andreas; Stichnoth, Holger |
Abstract: | How can retirement savings be increased? We explore a unique policy change in the context of the German pension system to study this question. As of 2004, the German pension authority started to send out annual letters providing detailed and comprehensible information about the pension system and individual expected pension payments. This reform did not change the level of pensions, but only manipulated the knowledge about and salience of expected pension payments. Using German tax return data, we exploit two discontinuities in the age cutoffs of receiving such a letter to study their effects on private retirement savings. Our results show that the letters increase private retirement savings. The effects are fairly sizable and persistent over several years. We further show that the letter increases labor earnings, and that the increase in savings partly crowds out charitable donations. Moreover, we present evidence suggesting that both information and salience drive the savings effect. Our paper adds to a recent literature showing that policies that go beyond the traditional neoclassical reasoning can be powerful to increase savings rates. |
Keywords: | pensions,savings,salience,information |
JEL: | H55 H24 J26 D14 |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16059&r=age |
By: | Loumrhari, Ghizlan |
Abstract: | The objective of this article is to estimate the effects of the population aging on the financial viability of the pension system and the macroeconomic evolution in a general way. To do it, we built a computational OLG model. The results show that the current ageing and which will accelerate in the 2030s will have dramatic consequences both on the financial and economic plans. The increase of the rate of contribution and the reduction in retirement pensions if they can assure the financial balance of pension funds seem impossible to be implemented economically and socially. Indeed, to maintain the balance of pension funds, the government should increase the rate of contributions of 20 points or to lower the benefits of practically 30 %. Certainly, it is always possible to combine these two reforms with an increase of two years the retirement age and the introduction of a dose of capitalization but it seems insufficient. |
Keywords: | Vieillissement démographiques, systèmes de retraite, modèles à générations imbriquées, Maroc |
JEL: | C68 E24 H55 J26 |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:74077&r=age |
By: | Sanchez-Romero, Miguel; d'Albis, Hippolyte; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia |
Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of the differential role of mortality for the optimal schooling and retirement age when the accumulation of human capital follows the so-called "Ben-Porath mechanism". We set up a life-cycle model of consumption and labor supply at the extensive margin that allows for endogenous human capital formation. This paper makes two important contributions. First, we provide the conditions under which a decrease in mortality leads to a longer education period and an earlier retirement age. Second, those conditions are decomposed into a Ben-Porath mechanism and a lifetime-human wealth effect vs. the years-to-consume effect. Finally, using US and Swedish data for cohorts born between 1890 and 2000, we show that our model can match the empirical evidence. |
JEL: | I25 J10 J24 J26 |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuweco:062016&r=age |
By: | Alicia H. Munnell; Wenliang Hou; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher |
Abstract: | Housing wealth, a major asset for most households entering retirement, is determined by two factors: 1) the value of the house; and 2) the amount of mortgage debt. Since 2000, house prices have been on a roller coaster, soaring to new highs during the bubble, plummeting when the bubble burst, and then beginning a gradual recovery towards their long-term trend level. In contrast, housing debt for older households has followed a consistent pattern: more retirees are carrying mortgage debt than ever before and the value of the debt has increased significantly. This brief examines how trends in house prices and borrowing affect retirement preparedness in the National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI). The NRRI is based on the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), which is conducted every three years. The current NRRI baseline uses data for 2013 (the most recent SCF). Our previous work showed that – even if households work to age 65 and annuitize all their financial assets, including their home equity – more than half are at risk of not being able to maintain their standard of living in retirement. The current exercise is to estimate the extent to which below-trend house prices and high housing debt contributed to the high percentage of households at risk in 2013 and what current trends suggest for the NRRI in the future. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section describes the NRRI. The second section presents trends in house prices and borrowing, which show that – in 2013 – prices were still below their long-term trend, and debt levels were substantially higher for older households. The third section reports what the 2013 NRRI would have looked like absent the housing bubble, that is, a scenario with higher prices and lower borrowing levels. The fourth section considers what may lie ahead for house prices and borrowing, focusing on whether recent patterns are likely to be transitory or permanent. The final section concludes that the confluence of lower house prices after the bubble and greater borrowing was a key reason for the high percentage of households at risk in the 2013 NRRI baseline. Looking ahead, recent data suggest that house prices will fully recover, which will modestly improve the NRRI, but the future path of borrowing is less clear. |
Date: | 2016–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2016-16&r=age |
By: | Motegi, Hiroyuki; Nishimura, Yoshinori; Oikawa, Masato |
Abstract: | This paper analyzes the reasons for differences in the effect of retirement on health estimated results in previous studies. We investigate these differences by focusing on the analysis methods used by these studies. Using various health indexes, numerous researchers have examined the effects of retirement on health. However, there are no unified views on the impact of retirement on various health indexes. Consequently, we show that the choice of analysis method is one of the key factors in explaining why the estimated results of the effect of retirement on health differ. Moreover, we re-estimate the effect of retirement on health by using a fixed analysis method controlling for individual heterogeneity and endogeneity of the retirement behavior. We analyze the effect of retirement on health parameters, such as cognitive function, self-report of health, activities of daily living (ADL), depression, and body mass index in eight countries. We find that the effects of retirement on self-report of health, depression, and ADL are positive in many of these countries. |
Keywords: | aging, health, retirement, global aging data |
JEL: | I1 I12 I18 J26 |
Date: | 2016–09–23 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73963&r=age |
By: | Bora Kim |
Abstract: | This study quantifies the inequality of opportunity (IOp) for healthy aging in Europe. Unlike earlier studies, an objective health indicator, grip strength, is used as an outcome. Using the longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (Wave 1-5), I introduce a general model where explanatory variables portray individual lifetime trajectory. All predictors are disentangled into illegitimate and legitimate components. The Hausman-Taylor (1981) estimator is employed to deal with the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of time-variant lifestyle. Both upper and lower bounds of IOp are considered by incorporating different sets of illegitimate factors under six scenarios. Parallel results based on self-reported health are provided. We find that IOp in a subjective measure is less sensitive to age, but more to unobserved factors. Finally, the magnitude of IOp is compared between men and women as well as across ten states Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and Italy. Overall, the results are sensitive to the choice in health indicator. |
Date: | 2016–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:549636&r=age |
By: | Joanna Lahey |
Abstract: | Black women in current cohorts ages 50 to 72 years have lower employment than similar white women, despite having had higher employment when they were middle-aged and younger. Earlier cohorts of older black women also worked more than their white counterparts. Although it is not surprising that white women’s employment should catch up to that of black women given trends in increasing female labor force participation, it is surprising that it should surpass that of black women. This chapter discusses factors that contribute to this differential change over time. Changes in education, marital status, home-ownership, welfare, wealth, and cognition cannot explain this trend, whereas changes in occupation, industry, health, and gross motor functioning may explain some of the trend. |
JEL: | J14 J15 J2 |
Date: | 2016–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22680&r=age |
By: | Poterba, James (MIT); Venti, Steven (Dartmouth College); Wise, David A. (Harvard University) |
Abstract: | We consider assets when individuals were last observed prior to death in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and trace assets backwards to the age when these individuals were first observed. For most individuals, assets in the last year observed (LYO) were very similar to assets in the first year observed (FYO). In particular, most of those who were last observed with very low asset levels also had low assets when first observed. We also estimate the relationship between an individual's asset change between the first and last date of observation, that individual's education and health status when first observed, and that individual's within-sample changes in health and family composition. We obtain estimates for HRS respondents who were 51 to 61 in 1992 and for AHEAD respondents who were age 70 and over in 1993. |
Date: | 2015–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:15-067&r=age |
By: | André Grimaldi (UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6, CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière [APHP]) |
Abstract: | The French health system is facing a double challenge: epidemic of chronic diseases, and financial sustainability of the social security established in 1945. Our system is very good for caring acute illness, but is inadequate for the management of chronic diseases. And this, on four areas: prevention, medical model, organization, and ways of funding. The second challenge is the increase health spending reaching 11.6 % of GDP in 2013. Beyond the cost of new drugs, there is a problem of dual ways of refunding for each care: social security, and private health insurance. This duality is responsible for a very high cost of health management, up to 16 billion euros. The inevitable increase in health care spending, due to aging and medical progress, within a restricted budget, will lead to choose between two solutions: increase in privatization of routine care funding, social security refocusing on the poorest people and on the patients with the more severe and costly diseases, or separate the care supported by the community and the care relating to personal choice supported by private insurance. An intermediate solution would be to allow those who wish, to choose the social security as additional insurance, for an additional fee. |
Abstract: | Le système de santé français est confronté à un double défi : l’augmentation épidémique du nombre de patients atteints de maladies chroniques, et la soutenabilité financière du système solidaire fondé en 1945. Or, notre système de santé, très bon pour les soins aigus, est mal adapté à la prise en charge des affections chroniques sur quatre plans : la prévention, le modèle médical, l’organisation, et le financement. Le 2e défi est celui de l’accroissement des dépenses de santé, représentant 11,6 % du Produit intérieur brut (PIB) en 2013. Au-delà de l’augmentation du coût des médicaments et des dispositifs médicaux innovants, se pose le problème de la dualité du mode de financement reposant, pour chaque acte, à la fois sur l’assurance maladie obligatoire et sur des assurances privées dites complémentaires. D’où un coût de gestion globalement très élevé, atteignant 16 milliards d’euros. L’augmentation des dépenses de santé, en raison du vieillissement de la population et des progrès médicaux, dans un contexte de budget contraint, va conduire, soit à une privatisation croissante du financement des soins courants, l’assurance maladie obligatoire prenant en charge les personnes les plus pauvres et les malades les plus graves, soit à la définition d’un panier de soins solidaire pris en charge par la Sécurité sociale, les soins hors panier de soins solidaire étant pris en charge par les assurances privées, non plus complémentaires, mais supplémentaires. Une proposition intermédiaire consisterait à permettre aux assurés qui le souhaitent de choisir, moyennant une cotisation supplémentaire, la Sécurité sociale comme assurance maladie complémentaire, en plus de son rôle d’assurance maladie obligatoire. |
Keywords: | Chronic disease,integrated medicine,long term affections,health insurance,health expenditure,affections de longue durée,médecine intégrée,Maladies chroniques,assurances maladie,dépenses de santé |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01346131&r=age |
By: | Konrad C. Schäfer |
Abstract: | This study analyzes the role of social capital in buffering the negative relationship between informal-care provision and mental health. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and fixed-effect regression models, we show that those individuals who socialize more frequently enjoy better mental health. We also find that stronger social ties moderate the negative association between caregiving and mental well-being. The protective role of social capital appears to be particularly strong for caregivers with high time commitments or those who regularly perform voluntary work. The moderating role of social activities can neither be explained by the caregiver's observed characteristics correlated with social capital, nor by features of the caregiving process. However, the results might be driven by insuficient overlap in covariates between carers and non-carers, and the simultaneity between caring decisions and social activities. We relate our results to recent policy initiatives that aim to improve the carer's well-being. Utilization of caregiver-support services is still rather low. Our findings suggest that caregivers may prefer informal support provided by family, friends, or neighbors to public caregiver benefits. To corroborate this hypothesis, further research regarding the (causal) buffering effects of social capital in the context of informal care is needed. |
Keywords: | Non-cognitive skills, Big-Five, Locus of Control, retirement |
JEL: | C34 C35 J26 J32 |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp867&r=age |
By: | Joan Costa-Font; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto |
Abstract: | We still know little about what motivates the informal care arrangements provided in old age. Evidence from demand-side subsidies such as unconditional caregiving allowances (cash benefits designed either to incentivize the purchase of care, or compensate for the loss of employment of informal caregivers) provide an opportunity to gain a further understanding of the matter. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effects of the inception in 2007 (and reduction in 2012) of a universal caregiving allowance on the supply of informal care, and subsequent intergenerational transfer flows. We find evidence of a 30% rise in informal caregiving, which amounts to 27% of long-term care expenditure, and an increase (reduction) in downstream (upstream) intergenerational transfers of 29% (and 15%). The effects were attenuated by a subsequent policy intervention; the reduction of the subsidy amidst austerity cuts in 2012. Individuals in middle and lower income and wealthy quintiles mainly drive these effects. |
Date: | 2016–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2016-08&r=age |
By: | Guillaume Lamé (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec); Oualid Jouini (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec); Julie Stal-Le Cardinal (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec) |
Abstract: | With an ageing population and more efficient treatments, demand for cancer care is increasing. Therefore, hospitals need to find ways to improve their operational efficiency for cancer care. In this article, we review the contributions in the operations management and operations research (OM/OR) literature that address the planning of outpatient chemotherapy, one of the main treatments for cancer. The distinctive characteristics of outpatient chemotherapy are highlighted. In particular, the interdependence between the administration of chemotherapy drugs in the outpatient clinic and drug preparation in the pharmacy is pointed out. This makes outpatient chemotherapy planning a multiple department challenge where coordination is essential to the global performance of the system. The modeling challenges induced by this interdependence and by the clinical dimension of chemotherapy are presented. Finally, a case study is performed to confront the literature with the reality of a hospital. Important gaps in the literature are outlined, such as the lack of studies taking an integrated, systemic perspective on this multi-department issue. |
Keywords: | pharmacy,outpatient clinics,healthcare management,multi-department,Chemotherapy |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01324488&r=age |
By: | Randall S. Jones; Kohei Fukawa |
Abstract: | Labour market reforms are essential to promote social cohesion by removing obstacles to employment, particularly for women, youth and older persons. In addition to reducing income inequality and poverty, such reforms would also sustain economic growth as Korea’s working-age population begins to decline in 2017. Breaking down labour market duality is crucial to reduce the wide wage disparity. Better conditions for non-regular workers would in turn promote greater labour participation. Increasing the take-up of maternity and parental leave, expanding the availability of high-quality childcare, reducing working time, narrowing the large gender wage gap and eliminating discrimination would also increase opportunities for women. Boosting youth employment from its current low level requires addressing labour market mismatch by better aligning the skills learned in school with those demanded by employers. Reducing the emphasis on seniority in setting wages by moving to more flexible systems and expanding training to improve the skills of older persons would allow them to extend their careers, thereby reducing old-age poverty. Des réformes du marché du travail en Corée pour promouvoir une croissance inclusive Les réformes du marché du travail sont essentielles pour promouvoir la cohésion sociale en supprimant les obstacles à l'emploi, en particulier pour les femmes, les jeunes et les personnes âgées. En plus de réduire l'inégalité de revenus et la pauvreté, de telles réformes soutiendraient la croissance économique, alors que la population en âge de travailler en Corée commence à décliner en 2017. Mettre fin au dualisme du marché du travail est crucial pour réduire la forte disparité des salaires. De meilleures conditions pour les travailleurs non réguliers favoriseraient à leur tour une participation accrue au marché du travail. L'augmentation de la prise de congés de maternité et parental, l'expansion de la disponibilité des services de garde d’enfants de haute qualité, une réduction du temps de travail, une réduction de l'important écart salarial entre hommes et femmes et l'élimination des discriminations accroîtraient les opportunités pour les femmes. Pour augmenter l'emploi des jeunes à partir de son faible niveau actuel, il est nécessaire de traiter le problème de l'inadéquation de l'offre et de la demande de travail par une meilleure adéquation entre les compétences acquises à l'école avec celles exigées par les employeurs. Réduire l'accent sur l'ancienneté dans la fixation des salaires en introduisant des systèmes plus flexibles et élargir la formation pour améliorer les compétences des plus anciens permettraient à ces derniers de prolonger leur carrière, réduisant ainsi la pauvreté des personnes âgées. |
Keywords: | dualism, non-regular workers, work-life balance, labour market |
JEL: | J21 J24 J26 J31 |
Date: | 2016–09–21 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1325-en&r=age |
By: | Alexis DIRER; Rim ENNAJAR-SAYADI |
Date: | 2016 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:leo:wpaper:2436&r=age |
By: | Irina Stefanescu; Ivan Vidangos |
Abstract: | Last year, in its September 2013 release, the Financial Accounts of the United States (formerly known as Flow of Funds accounts) changed the treatment of defined-benefit (DB) pensions from a cash accounting basis to an accrual accounting basis. |
Date: | 2014–10–31 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2014-10-31-3&r=age |
By: | Harris, M.N.; Zhao, X.; Zucchelli, E. |
Abstract: | Despite its clear relevance and policy significance, there is still sparse evidence on the effects of ill-health on the dynamics of labour state transitions among older individuals. We provide novel evidence by considering retirement as mobility among full-time work, part-time work, self-employment and inactivity, using a dynamic multinomial choice model that simultaneously accounts for state dependence, individual-level and state-specific unobserved heterogeneity, captivity and correlations between labour market states. We also simulate the dynamic paths for the four labour states from both transitory and permanent health shocks. We find strong state dependence for all four labour states even after accounting for individual effects. Both ill-health and health shocks are found to greatly increase the probability of leaving full-time employment into inactivity, and we find some evidence of part-time and self-employment paths. Significant evidence is found for “captivity†effects for the “inactive†state, and correlations across labour states. We also show that the degree of state dependence is over-estimated and, for men, the effects of ill health under-estimated, if unobserved individual effects are not controlled for in dynamic models. |
Keywords: | health; dynamic labour transitions; captivity; unobserved heterogeneity; |
JEL: | C23 I10 J24 J2 |
Date: | 2016–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:16/30&r=age |
By: | Declan French; Frank Kee; Mark O'Doherty |
Abstract: | Using the work disability vignettes from the third wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) in 2006/07, we explore the geographical variation in how participants rate the level of work limitation of people described in hypothetical scenarios and its association with wealth and income inequality. The results show that areas with higher levels of wealth inequality, but not income inequality, have more favourable attitudes to work disability and are more likely to rate the vignettes as work-limited. These differences persist when controlling for other local authority area- level characteristics such as social capital and diversity characteristics as well as a large number of individual-level characteristics. Our robust findings provide support for the hypothesis that individuals have interdependent preferences displaying an aversion to inequality. |
Keywords: | Wealth; Disability; Inequality; Work; Social capital |
JEL: | D63 I14 P16 |
Date: | 2016–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qub:charms:1604&r=age |