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on Economics of Ageing |
| By: | Verbič, Miroslav; Spruk, Rok |
| Abstract: | Rapidly aging population in high-income countries has exerted additional pressure on the sustainability of public pension expenditure. We present a formal model of public pension expenditure under endogenous human capital, where the latter facilitates a substantial decrease in equilibrium fertility rate alongside the improvement in life expectancy. We demonstrate how higher life expectancy and human capital endowment facilitate the rise of net replacement rate. We provide and examine an empirical model of old-age expenditure in a panel of 33 countries in the period 1998–2008. Our results indicate that increases in total fertility rate and effective retirement age would reduce age-related expenditure substantially. While higher net replacement rate would alleviate the risk of old-age poverty, it would endanger long-term sustainability of public finance by imposing additional pressure on deficit and public debt. |
| Keywords: | public pensions; aging; social security; replacement rate; life expectancy |
| JEL: | C51 H55 J11 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38914&r=age |
| By: | Peter N. C. Mohr; Hauke R. Heekeren; |
| Abstract: | Individuals in most industrialized countries have to make investment decisions throughout their adult life span to save for their retirement. These decisions substantially affect their living standards in old age. Research on cognitive aging has already demonstrated several changes in cognitive functions (e.g., processing speed) that likely influence investment decisions. This review brings together research on behavioral and neural aspects of financial decision making and aging to advance knowledge on age-related changes in financial decision making. The dopaminergic system plays a key role in financial decision making, both in financial decisions from description and financial decisions from experience. Importantly, both dopaminergic neuromodulation and financial decision making change during healthy aging. Especially when the parameters of the return distribution have to be learned from experience, older adults show a different and suboptimal choice behavior compared to younger adults. Based on these observations we suggest ways to circumvent the age-related bias in financial decision making to improve older adults’ wealth. |
| Keywords: | neuroeconomics, neurofinance, aging, neuromodulation, risk-return models, risk, fMRI, decision making under risk |
| JEL: | D03 D87 G11 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-038&r=age |
| By: | Holzmann, Robert |
| Abstract: | Across the world, pension systems and their reforms are in a constant state of flux driven by shifting objectives, moving reform needs, and a changing enabling environment. The ongoing worldwide financial crisis and the adjustment to an uncertain'new normal'will make future pension systems different from past ones. The objectives of this policy review paper are threefold: (i) to briefly review recent and ongoing key changesthat are triggering reforms; (ii) to outline the main reform trends across pension pillars; and (iii) to identify a few areas on which the pension reform community will need to focus to make a difference. The latter includes: creating solutions after the marginalization or, perhaps, demise of Bismarckian systems in countries with high rates of informality; keeping the elderly in the labor market; and addressing the uncertainty of longevity increases in pension schemes. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Safety Nets and Transfers,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2012–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:68934&r=age |
| By: | Jean-Olivier Hairault (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor); François Langot (IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor, GAINS-TEPP - Université du Mans, CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications); Sébastien Ménard (GAINS - Université du Maine); Thepthida Sopraseuth (CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications, GAINS-TEPP - Université du Maine) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the optimal unemployment insurance for older workers in a repeated principal-agent model, where the search intensity of risk-averse workers (the agents) is not observed by the risk-neutral insurance agency (the principal). When unemployment benefits are the only available tool, the insurance agency is not able to induce older workers to search for a job. This is because of the short time-horizon of workers close to retirement. We propose to introduce a pension tax dependent on the length of the unemployment spell. We show that this device performs better than a wage tax after re-employment. First, it makes jobs more attractive, as they are free of tax. Second, because re-employment will be short-lived, a pension tax is a more powerful incentive than a wage tax, and provides more substantial fiscal gains to the agency. Finally, a pension tax allows those workers near retirement who still do not exercise job search to smooth their consumption during their unemployment spell, as if they could borrow against their future pension. |
| Date: | 2012–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00668989&r=age |
| By: | Poterba, James M.; Wise, David Alsgaard; Venti, Steven F. |
| Abstract: | How households draw down the balances that they accumulate in retirement saving accounts such as 401(k) plans and Individual Retirement Accounts can have an important effect on the contribution of these accounts to retirement income security. This paper presents evidence on the pattern of withdrawals at different ages. We find a relatively modest rate of withdrawals prior to the age at which households are required to take minimum required distributions. Only seven percent of PRA-owning households between the ages of 60 and 69 take annual distributions of more than ten percent of their PRA balance, and only 18 percent of PRA households in this age group make any withdrawals in a typical year. The rate of distributions rises sharply after age 70 ½, when minimum distributions are required. The proportion of PRA-owning households making a withdrawal jumps to over 60 percent by age 71, and crosses 70 percent a few years later. On average, households age 60 to 69 with PRA accounts withdraw only about two percent of their account balances each year, considerably less than the rate of return on account balances during our sample period. Even at older ages—after the required minimum distribution age--the percentage of balances withdrawn remains at about five percent. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:hksfac:4677548&r=age |
| By: | Ansgar Belke; Christian Dreger; Richard Ochmann |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between wealth, ageing and saving behaviour of private households by using pooled cross sections of German consumption survey data. Different components of wealth are distinguished, as their impact on the savings rate is not homogeneous. On average, the effect attributed to real estate dominates the other components of wealth. In addition, the savings rate strongly responds to demographic trends. Besides the direct impact of the age structure, an indirect effect arises through the accumulation of wealth. The savings rate does not decrease with age in a monotonic way, as the permanent income hypothesis suggests. Most prominently, older households tend to increase their savings in the second half of their retirement period, probably due to bequest motives and increasing immobility. Given the ongoing demographic trend, an increase of 1.4 percentage points in the aggregated savings rate should be expected over the next two decades. |
| Keywords: | Savings, wealth, demographic change |
| JEL: | G10 G11 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1211&r=age |
| By: | Pierre Pestieau (CREPP - Center of Research in Public Economics and Population Economics - Université de Liège, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - Université Catholique de Louvain, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Grégory Ponthière (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | One of the greatest success stories in our societies is that people are living longer, life expectancy at birth being now above 80 years. Whereas the lengthening of life opens huge opportunities for individuals if extra years are spent in prosperity and good health, it is however often regarded as a source of problems for policy-makers. The goal of this paper is to examine the key policy challenges raised by increasing longevity. For that purpose, we first pay attention to the representation of individual preferences, and to the normative foundations of the economy, and, then, we consider the challenges raised for the design of the social security system, pension policies, preventive health policies, the provision of long term care, as well as for long-run economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Life Expectancy ; Mortality ; Public Policy |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00676492&r=age |
| By: | Catherine Pollak (IRDES institut for research and information in health economics); Nicolas Sirven (IRDES institut for research and information in health economics) |
| Abstract: | “Active Ageing” strategies aim to foster the participation of seniors in the society. Although economic literature has extensively studied the incentives for seniors to increase their labour supply, little is known about the motivations for older people to complement labour with other forms of social participation. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, this article provides empirical evidence of the motivational role of the work environment in the supply of formal and informal productive activities of 50 to 65 year old workers. The results show that intrinsic rewards received at work, such as skill development opportunities and decision latitude, form an incentive for older workers to invest time in social activities outside the labour market. Extrinsic rewards on the other hand, like advancement perspectives, job security and pay, appear independent from non-market outcomes. Therefore, the opportunity for work time arrangements but also intrinsic rewards in the work environment should be developed if one aims to foster participation of older workers in the society. |
| Keywords: | Labour supply, Job quality, Social capital, Informal care. |
| JEL: | J81 J22 J14 C35 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irh:wpaper:dt48&r=age |
| By: | Laibson, David I.; Madrian, Brigitte; Beshears, John; Choi, James J. |
| Abstract: | We describe the pension plan features of the states and the largest cities and counties in the U.S. Unlike in the private sector, defined benefit (DB) pensions are still the norm in the public sector. However, a few jurisdictions have shifted towards defined contribution (DC) plans as their primary savings plan, and fiscal pressures are likely to generate more movement in this direction. Holding fixed a public employee‘s work and salary history, we show that DB retirement income replacement ratios vary greatly across jurisdictions. This creates large variation in workers‘ need to save for retirement in other accounts. There is also substantial heterogeneity across jurisdictions in the savings generated in primary DC plans because of differences in the level of mandatory employer and employee contributions. One notable difference between public and private sector DC plans is that public sector primary DC plans are characterized by required employee or employer contributions (or both), whereas private sector plans largely feature voluntary employee contributions that are supplemented by an employer match. We conclude by applying lessons from savings behavior in private sector savings plans to the design of public sector plans. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:hksfac:4723207&r=age |
| By: | Musalem, Alberto R.; Pasquini, Ricardo |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the performance of private pensions systems across countries a topic which has yet to be adequately addressed in the literature. Specifically, this study examines the relationship between pension fund performance (as captured by gross real rates of return and the three year standard deviation of those returns) and the structure of a country's private pension industry and the design of its pension schemes. A database covering 27 countries over the period 1990-2007 was created for this research. The study's key findings include: (i) higher returns are associated with size (systems with more assets under management tend to generate higher returns), type (occupational schemes tend to generate higher returns than do personal pension schemes and closed schemes tend to generate higher returns than do open schemes), and number (systems with multiple funds tend to generate higher returns than those with a single fund); and (ii) lower volatility in pension system returns is associated with older systems, voluntary (rather than mandatory) systems, systems with restrictions on foreign investing, and systems with minimum return guarantees. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Mutual Funds,Economic Theory&Research,Currencies and Exchange Rates |
| Date: | 2012–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:68937&r=age |
| By: | Grégory Ponthière (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | The public provision of long-term care (LTC) can replace family-provided LTC when adults are not sufficiently altruistic towards their elderly parents. But State intervention can also modify the transmission of values and reduce the long-run prevalence of family altruism in the population. That evolutionary effect questions the desirability of the LTC public provision. To characterize the optimal LTC policy, we develop a three-period OLG model where the population is divided into altruistic and non-altruistic agents, and where the transmission of (non) altruism takes place through a socialization process à la Bisin and Verdier (2001). The optimal short-run and long-run LTC policies are shown to differ, to an extent varying with the particular socialization mechanism at work. |
| Keywords: | long-term care ; altruism ; socialization ; optimal policy ; crowding out effect |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00622385&r=age |
| By: | Pierre Pestieau (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CREPP - Center of Research in Public Economics and Population Economics - Université de Liège, CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - Université Catholique de Louvain, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Grégory Ponthière (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, ENS - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris) |
| Abstract: | We explore the optimal fertility age-pattern in a four-period OLG economy with physical capital accumulation. For that purpose, we .rstly compare the dynamics of two closed economies, Early and Late Islands, which di¤er only in the timing of births. On Early Island, children are born from parents in young adulthood, whereas, on Late Island, children are born from parents in older adulthood. We show that, unlike on Early Island, there exists no stable stationary equilibrium on Late Island, which exhibits cyclical dynamics. We also characterize the social optimum in each economy, and show that Samuelson.s Serendipity Theorem still holds. Finally, we study the dynamics and social optimum of an economy with interior fertility rates during the reproduction period. It is shown that various fertility age-patterns are compatible with the social optimum, as long as these yield the optimal cohort growth rate. The Serendipity Theorem remains valid in that broader demographic environment. |
| Keywords: | childbearing ages ; early and late motherhoods ; fertility ; overlapping generations ; social optimum |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00612609&r=age |
| By: | De Donder, Philippe (Toulouse School of Economics (GREMAQ-CNRS and IDEI)); Pestieau, Pierre |
| Abstract: | We analyze the determinants of the demand for social, private and self-insurance for long-term care in an environment where agents di¤er in income, probability of becoming dependent and of receiving family help. Uniform social benefits are financed with a proportional income tax and are thus redistributive, while private insurance is actuarially fair. We obtain a rich pattern of insights, depending on whether private insurance is available or not, on its loading factor, and on the correlation between, on the one hand, income and risk, and, on the other hand, income and family help. Although the availability of private insurance decreases the demand for social insurance, it only a¤ects a minority of agents so that the majority-chosen social insurance level remains una¤ected. Family support crowds out the demand for both private and social insurance, and may even suppress any demand for private insurance. Family help crowds out self-insurance only for agents whose demand for both social and private insurance is nil. A general increase in the probability of becoming dependent need not increase the demand for social insurance, since it decreases its return. |
| Keywords: | long-term care, social insurance, family help, correlation between risk and income, voting. |
| JEL: | H24 H31 H42 I11 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:25821&r=age |