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on Africa |
| By: | Daniel Ofori-Sasu (University of Ghana Business School); Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor (University of Ghana Business School); Dennis Nsafoah (Niagara University); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of regulatory independence of the central bank in shaping the impact of electoral cycles on bank lending behaviour in Africa. It employs the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) Two-Step estimator for a panel dataset of 54 African countries over the period, 2004-2022. The study found that banks lend substantially higher during election years, and reduce lending patterns thereafter. The study shows that countries that enforce monetary policy autonomy of the central bank induce a negative impact on bank lending behaviour while those that apply strong macro-prudential independent action and central bank independence reduce lending in the long term. The study provides evidence to support that regulatory independence of the central bank dampens the positive effect of elections on bank lending around election years while they amplify the reductive effects on bank lending after election periods. There is a wake-up call for countries with weak independent central bank regulatory policy to strengthen their independent regulatory policy frameworks and political institutions. This will enable them better strategize to yield a desirable outcome of bank lending to the real economy during election years. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy; Political Credit Cycles, Electoral Cycle; Central Bank Regulatory Independence; Bank lending Behaviour |
| JEL: | D7 D72 G2 G3 E3 E5 E61 G21 L10 L51 M21 P16 P26 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/002&r=afr |
| By: | Ebele S. Nwokoye (Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, Nigeria); Stephen K. Dimnwobi (Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, Nigeria); Favour C. Onuoha (Evangel University Akaeze, Nigeria); Chekwube V. Madichie (University of York, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | An inquiry into the impact of external and domestic borrowings is considered timely for Nigeria, given the growing public debt profile amid deteriorating human capital development. Using data from 1990 to 2021, the study estimates the effects of domestic and external debts on Nigeria’s human capital development. The study employed the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and canonical cointegration regression (CCR) as the main estimation technique and the robustness check respectively. The study discovered that domestic and external debt, economic growth and debt servicing exert positive and significant influence on human capital development in Nigeria while environmental pollution has an inverse and significant impact on human capital development in Nigeria. Premised on the outcomes, policy suggestions aimed at enhancing human capital development in Nigeria have been put forward. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria, Domestic debt, External debt, Human capital development |
| JEL: | H63 H68 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/006&r=afr |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab;; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver; Dorosh, Paul; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | This report synthesizes the key discussions and outcomes of the “Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications†conference, held on March 5, 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya. Convening a diverse group of experts in research, development, and humanitarian efforts, the conference aimed to explore actionable solutions for the socioeconomic challenges triggered by Sudan’s ongoing conflict. Participants at the conference delved into the conflict’s adverse impacts on agriculture, markets, employment, and food security, as well as its wider regional impacts. Notably, the conference findings underscore the urgent need for supporting smallholder farmers, stabilizing markets, generating employment opportunities, and enhancing agricultural productivity within a comprehensive recovery strategy. Furthermore, conference participants stressed the importance of innovative data gathering, collaborative policy formulation, international support, and coordination to ensure effective interventions. This report succinctly presents the interventions discussed in the conference’s research and panel discussion sessions, particularly the pivotal insights offered in each to guide policy that will build peace, strengthen resilience, and relaunch and accelerate human and economic development efforts in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; armed conflicts; data collection; policy innovation; food security; agriculture; resilience; markets |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:140775&r=afr |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Oxford, UK); Sara le Roux (Oxford, UK) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates the role of governance (i.e., ‘voice & accountability’, political stability/no violence, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, corruption-control and the rule of law) in the incidence of short-term debt services on infrastructure development in the perspective of telecommunication infrastructure and access to electricity. The focus of the study is on 52 African countries for the period 2002-2021. The generalized method of moments is employed as estimation strategy and the following findings are established. Debt service has a negative unconditional effect on access to electricity and telecommunication infrastructure. Governance dynamics moderate the negative effect of debt service on infrastructure dynamics. Effective moderation is from regulatory quality and corruption-control for access to electricity and from government effectiveness, regulatory quality, corruption-control and rule of law, for telecommunication infrastructure. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Debt service, governance; information technology; access to electricity; Africa |
| JEL: | F34 H63 O10 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/003&r=afr |
| By: | Isaac Amedanou (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Bertrand Laporte (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | A multinational firm's decision to invest in a mining project depends on a complex decision-making process that considers the physical and economic characteristics of the mine, the mining tax design, the reliability of the host country's government in meeting its commitments.... and, consequently, the various risks that condition the expected profitability of the investment. Changes in government policy and/or political institutions could affect the investment behaviour of multinationals, as the risk premium is introduced into any investment project and, therefore, the location decision is influenced by political risk. Governments, which need foreign investments to extract resources, cannot ignore the strategies of multinational firms when defining their mining tax design. |
| Abstract: | La décision d'une entreprise multinationale d'investir dans un projet minier dépend d'un processus décisionnel complexe qui prend en compte les caractéristiques physiques et économiques de la mine, la conception fiscale minière, la fiabilité du gouvernement du pays hôte dans la réalisation de ses engagements... et, par conséquent, des divers risques qui conditionnent la rentabilité attendue de l'investissement. Les changements dans la politique gouvernementale et/ou les institutions politiques pourraient influencer le comportement d'investissement des multinationales, car la prime de risque est introduite dans tout projet d'investissement et, de ce fait, la décision de localisation est influencée par le risque politique. Les gouvernements, qui ont besoin d'investissements étrangers pour extraire des ressources, ne peuvent pas ignorer les stratégies des entreprises multinationales lors de la définition de leur design fiscal minier. |
| Keywords: | Government take, Gold, Tax legislations, Country risk, Political regime, Transparency, Africa, Prise de position du gouvernement, Législations fiscales, Or, Risque pays, Régime politique, Transparence, Afrique |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04523537&r=afr |
| By: | Touhami Abdelkhalek; Dorothee Boccanfuso |
| Abstract: | Public policies, particularly those related to taxes and subsidies, should help to reduce poverty and inequality. However, the combination of components of these two systems, as implemented, leads sometimes to an increase in poverty and or inequality without being necessarily anticipated. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb42-23&r=afr |