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on Africa |
| By: | Ulrich J. Eberle (Future of Conflict Fellow at International Crisis Group and Princeton University); Dominic Rohner (University of Lausanne and CEPR); Mathias Thoenig (University of Lausanne and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of climate shocks on violence between herders and farmers by using geolocalized data on conflict events for all African countries over the 1997-2014 period. We find that a +1℃ increase in temperature leads to a +54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders, compared to +17% increase in non-mixed areas. This result is robust to controlling for the interaction between temperature and ethnic polarization, alternative estimation techniques, disaggregation levels, and coding options of the climatic/conflict/ethnic variables. When quantifying at the continental level the impact on conflict of projected climate change in 2040, we find that, in absence of mixed population areas, global warming is predicted to increase total annual conflicts by about a quarter in whole Africa; when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements, total annual conflicts are predicted to rise by as much as a third. We also provide two pieces of evidence that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence. Firstly, conflicts are much more prevalent at the fringe between rangeland and farmland - a geographic buffer of mixed usage that is suitable for both cattle herding and farming but is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. Secondly, information on groups' mobility reveals that temperature spikes in the ethnic homeland of a nomadic group tend to diffuse its fighting operations outside its homeland, with a magnified spatial spread in the case of conflicts over resources. Finally, we show that violence is substantially reduced in the presence of policies that empower local communities, foster participatory democracy, enforce property rights and regulate land dispute resolution. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, civil war, violence, climate change, weather, heat, temperature, nomadic, ethnicity, resource competition, farmer-herder conflict, Sahel |
| JEL: | D74 N47 O13 Q34 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:22&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (CEREDEC, Bangui, CAR); Thales P. Yapatake Kossele (CEREDEC, Bangui, CAR); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study examines linkages between political stability and trade openness dynamics in a panel of 44 countries in SSA from 1996 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments. From the findings, the negative relationship between political stability and merchandise trade is not significant while the negative relationship between political stability and trade openness (exports plus imports) is significant. Hence, the findings do not validate the tested hypothesis that political stability/no violence increases trade in the sub-region. The perspective that some forms of political stability can slow down and prevent international trade is consistent with Oslon in Rise and Decline of Nations (RADON) and recent contributions to the economic development literature which have shown that not all forms of political stability are development friendly because much depends on the extent to which stability translates into, inter alia, good governance. The principal policy implication is that standards of political governance need to be boosted in order to improve the anticipated effects of political stability on trade, especially in the light of the ambitious African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Other policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Political Stability; Trade; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | F52 K42 O17 O55 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/005&r=all |
| By: | Joel Cariolle (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | In this policy brief, we use survey data from the WBES to provide an empirical assessment of the contribution of digital technologies diffusion to African SMEs' performance. Compared to existing empirical evidence on the impacts of digital technologies on African firms, the quantitative analysis hereafter presented incorporates various novelties. |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03003914&r=all |
| By: | Vimal V Thakoor |
| Abstract: | Before the pandemic, the South African economy remained stuck in low gear, with anemic growth, stagnant private investment, and a shrinking tradable sector. Subdued growth has raised unemployment, poverty, and inequality, hindering inclusion efforts. The pandemic has worsened economic and social vulnerabilities. Economic recovery and social inclusion hinge critically on structural reforms to boost competiveness and growth. Product markets represent a cornerstone of the reform strategy. Firms have used their market power to drive up prices and limit competition. Important state-owned monopolies provide low-quality services, while representing a fiscal drag. Existing regulations inhibit the entry of both domestic and foreign firms. Addressing product markets constraints could boost per capita growth by 1 percentage point—adding about 2½ percentage points to headline growth—and foster greater inclusion. |
| Keywords: | Competition;Commodity markets;Private investment;Labor markets;Job creation;WP,market power,product market,firm,market concentration,mark-up |
| Date: | 2020–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/206&r=all |
| By: | Adil Outla (UAE - Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi); Koraich Almahdi (UAE - Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi); Moustapha Hamzaoui (UAE - Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the literature on business dynamics, entrepreneurship and the spatial determinants of firms' creation, this study use Exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial panel data to test the spatial patterns and dynamics of cooperatives growth in Morocco. The results confirm the existence of spatial concentration of cooperatives, a global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation with different spatial typologies. The results also show that the main positive spatial determinants for cooperatives growth are the existence of cooperatives culture, the males' unemployment rate, and the density of population. However, there are also negative spatial determinants on the growth and dynamics of cooperatives. These include coops density, firm's density, male activity, Business turnover, population growth, Higher education, primary education, and urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Co-operatives growth,spatial determinants,spatial distribution,social entrepreneurship |
| Date: | 2020–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03089872&r=all |