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on Africa |
| By: | Stijn van Weezel |
| Abstract: | Despite the surge in quantitative research examining the link between climate variability and conflict, a lot of uncertainty exists concerning whether there is a link. One shortcoming of the current literature is that it focuses mainly on statistical inference in order to establish causation with little attention for the predictive performance of the model. In contrast, this study extends the current literature by focusing on the predictive accuracy of a model linking droughts to communal conflict using data for Nigeria for the period 2006-2014. Using a number of different model specifications and estimation methods to test the robustness of the results, the analysis shows that although the regression results show a positive link between the occurrence of droughts and communal conflict, the predictive accuracy of the model is relatively low. In contrast, accounting for the temporal and spatial dynamics of conflict leads to better forecasts compared to the climate variable. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria; Droughts; Communal conflict; Cross-validation |
| JEL: | D74 Q54 O55 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201618&r=afr |
| By: | Reena das Nair; Shingie Chisoro |
| Abstract: | Since the early 2000s, there has been rapid growth in the number and spread of supermarkets in southern Africa. This paper is a synthesis of key findings of studies undertaken in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe on the expansion of supermarkets and the impact this has had on suppliers and the competitive landscape in the region. Supermarkets are driving trade patterns in processed foods and household consumables within the region, opening up large markets for suppliers. If supermarkets are to become a key route to regional markets for suppliers, national policies and laws that currently exist need to be harmonized across the region with a wider view of developing regional value chains. Among key findings of the studies, supermarket procurement and sourcing strategies as well as buyer power are seen to affect the participation of suppliers in supermarket value chains, and affect the development of their capabilities. The impact on the competitive landscape of the spread of supermarkets in each country is also assessed, highlighting concerns of strategic behaviour that dominant supermarkets can engage in to exclude rivals. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-169&r=afr |
| By: | Faaiqa Hartley; Dirk van Seventer; Emilio Tostão; Channing Arndt |
| Abstract: | Mozambique is one of the most promising African countries for producing biofuels and the national biofuel policy of 2009 identifies measures to incentivize biofuel production. Demand for biofuels in the Southern African Development Community is expected to increase over the next few years as 7 of its 15 member states have implemented or proposed the implementation of blending mandates by 2020. South Africa is one of these countries. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we estimate the impacts of expanding biofuel production in Mozambique under both commercial and smallholder-type farming models, including and excluding bagasse cogeneration. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-177&r=afr |
| By: | Nadia S. Ouedraogo |
| Abstract: | This study develops a scenario-based model to assess the current and future trends in energy demand in Africa and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Future energy demand is forecast on the basis of socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanization. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning model is applied to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period 2010–2040. Two main policy implications can be derived from the results of this study. First, it is essential for Africa to promote energy conservation policies that will improve energy efficiency and address issues related to energy shortages, energy poverty, and energy security. Second, policies that favour cleaner energies over other sources are required as early as possible to displace fossil fuel usage and to support sustainable economic development. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-56&r=afr |
| By: | Giulia La Mattina; Gabriel Picone; Alban Ahoure; Jose Carlos Kimou |
| Abstract: | We study the association between the gender of the highest-ranking manager (the CEO) and gender differences in employees’ outcomes using detailed linked employer–employee data from the formal sector in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. Our empirical strategy relies on the inclusion of firm fixed effects and workers’ characteristics. Our results point toward a negative correlation between female CEO and the relative wages and job satisfaction of female employees. However, female employees working under a female CEO who owns the firm are not paid less than their male colleagues. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-63&r=afr |
| By: | Alice Evans |
| Abstract: | Across the world, people in urban rather than rural areas are more likely to support gender equality. To explain this global trend, this paper engages with geographically diverse literature and comparative rural–urban ethnographic research from Zambia. It argues that people living in interconnected, heterogeneous, densely populated areas are more likely to see women performing socially valued, masculine roles. Such exposure incrementally erodes gender ideologies, catalysing a positive feedback loop, and increasing flexibility in gender divisions of labour. Women in densely populated areas also tend to have greater access to health clinics and police, so are more able to control their fertility and secure external support against gender-based violence. However, the urban is not inevitably disruptive. Experiences of the urban are shaped by international and national policies, macro-economic conditions, and individual circumstances. Through this comparative ethnography, this paper contributes to literature on the drivers of change and continuity in gender ideologies. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-61&r=afr |