|
on Africa |
| By: | Douzounet Mallaye; Yogo Thierry Urbain |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the macroeconomic effect of foreign aid on the factors of growth. Specifically, we examine the effects of foreign aid on capital investment (human capital, physical capital) in sub-Saharan Africa. Our methodological approach evaluates |
| Keywords: | foreign aid, physical capital, human capital, panel data, Africa |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2013-103&r=afr |
| By: | Elise Huillery (Département d'économie) |
| Abstract: | Was colonization costly for France? Did French taxpayers contribute to colonies' development? This paper reveals that French West Africa's colonization took only 0.29 percent of French annual expenditures, including 0.24 percent for military and central administration and 0.05 percent for French West Africa's development. For West Africans, the contribution from French taxpayers was almost negligible: mainland France provided about two percent of French West Africa's revenue. In fact, colonization was a considerable burden for African taxpayers since French civil servants' salaries absorbed a disproportionate share of local expenditures. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09na41pc24o&r=afr |
| By: | Kaminski, Jonathan; Christiaensen, Luc |
| Abstract: | The 2007-2008 global food crisis has renewed interest in post-harvest loss, but estimates remain scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses self-reported measures from nationally representative household surveys in Malawi, Uganda, and Tanzania. Overall, on-farm post-harvest loss adds to 1.4-5.9 percent of the national maize harvest, substantially lower than the Food and Agriculture Organization's post-harvest handling and storage loss estimate for cereals, which is 8 percent. Post-harvest loss is concentrated among less than a fifth of households. It increases with humidity and temperature and declines with better market access, post-primary education, higher seasonal price differences, and possibly improved storage practices. Wider use of nationally representative surveys in studying post-harvest loss is called for. |
| Keywords: | Markets and Market Access,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Food&Beverage Industry,Technology Industry,Environmental Economics&Policies |
| Date: | 2014–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6831&r=afr |
| By: | Branson, Nicola (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Kekana, Dineo (Saldru, University of Cape Town); Lam, David (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | Differential education expenditure by racial group was a pillar in the architecture of apartheid. School systems diverged by racial group, with large funding and curriculum differences (Fiske and Ladd, 2004). In 1994, spending on white learners was about 1.5 times the spending on urban African learners and more than four times the spending on rural African learners (Fiske and Ladd, 2004). Since 1994 much focus has been paid by government to redress these educational expenditure inequalities with policies such as the National Norms and Standards for School Funding (NNSSF) and the rollout of the no fee schools program disproportionately allocating state funds to low socioeconomic schools and the fee-exemption policy providing low income households and grant recipients access to free education. Little is however known about how these policies have affected household educational expenditure across the income distribution. |
| Keywords: | educational expenditure; South Africa; NIDS; National Income Dynamics Study |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:124&r=afr |
| By: | Ebrahim, Amina; Woolard, Ingrid (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Leibbrandt, Murray (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | In comparison to other continents, Africa has received little scholarly attention with regard to household composition. Household composition is endogenous to a variety of welfare issues and little is understood about the determinants of this composition. Understanding the household composition and formation decision may improve our understanding of how the unemployed gain access to resources and how household composition could provide a safety net to the unemployed. However, increasingly, more work is surfacing around the topic in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | household composition; unemployment; South Africa; National Income Dynamics Study; NIDS |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:126&r=afr |
| By: | Paula Armstrong (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates different theoretical models of incentives for teachers in education. It highlights key characteristics likely to render incentives successful in encouraging productive behaviour, provides evidence of where these systems have been successfully and unsuccessfully implemented internationally and the likelihood of successful implementation of teacher incentive programmes in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | incentives, teachers |
| JEL: | I2 J5 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers212&r=afr |
| By: | Siddig Umbadda; Ismail Elgizouli |
| Abstract: | Although agriculture is important for the livelihood of most Africans, especially the poor, donors did not accord it a high priority. Both volume and share of aid earmarked for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa not only remained low, around five per cent, |
| Keywords: | agriculture, foreign aid, effectiveness, upscaling, transferability, sustainable |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2013-081&r=afr |
| By: | Finn, Arden (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Leibbrandt, Murray |
| Abstract: | We use the first three waves of data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) to analyse poverty dynamics in South Africa between 2008 and 2012. Restricting ourselves to the sub-sample of balanced panel respondents, we find that poverty exit rates increased with time, though a substantial proportion of the population was trapped in severe poverty, defined as having income of less than half of the poverty line. The importance of demographic events in the household as drivers of poverty transitions are highlighted in a univariate and multivariate setting. Finally we look at the joint distributions of multidimensional poverty and income poverty in order to ascertain the extent to which they complement or offset one another. |
| Keywords: | poverty; households; South Africa; National Income Dynamics Study; NIDS |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:119&r=afr |
| By: | Matthew Cole; Robert Elliott; Eric Strobl |
| Abstract: | We examine Africa's increasing reliance on hydropower in light of climate change induced variations in rainfall and the potential power outages that may result. We use a continent wide riverflow material model and IPPC climate change scenarios and show that current plans for African dam building are fairly well matched with river-flow predictions so that fears that international donors and national governments are making a series of expensive and environmentally damaging investments may be overstated. However, predictions of an increase in extreme events and reduced rainfall for certain countries means there are still viabilty concerns for certain planned hydropower investments. |
| Keywords: | Hydropower, Climate Change, Africa Energy |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:14-03&r=afr |
| By: | Flatø, Martin (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo); Kotsadam, Andreas (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | Are African girls more exposed than boys to risk of infant mortality during crises and if so, is the difference due to discrimination? To answer these questions, we combine retrospective fertility data on over 1.5 million births from Demographic and Health Surveys with data on rainfall variability and find a substantial gender difference favouring boys following droughts. We substantiate that this difference has social determinants by showing that the difference is only present in contexts in which we would expect discrimination of daughters. The difference is only present in communities with strong preferences for sons and in areas where fertility desires are low. In areas with low levels of female employment there is a large gender gap following droughts, especially for infants with mothers who are not working. In contrast, there is no gender difference in infant mortality after droughts in areas where many women work, irrespective of the employment status of the individual mother under consideration. No difference is found across mothers with different levels of education, perhaps due to the lower fertility preferences of more educated women. In total, the results indicate a large and socially founded gender bias in infant mortality after crises. They also shed light on factors behind the African exceptionalism of little gender discrimination in infant mortality. As communities with strong son preferences, low fertility preferences, and low female employment display gender bias after crises in Africa, the results are consistent with factors explaining differences in gender biases between countries across the world. |
| Keywords: | Rainfall; Drought; Gender; Infant mortality; Africa |
| JEL: | I15 J13 J16 O55 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:osloec:2014_002&r=afr |
| By: | Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | Prioritizing public investments requires information on relative returns that are difficult to derive from disparate evaluation studies. This paper presents a .hybrid. approach that combines ex post evaluation data with an economy-wide model for experimen |
| Keywords: | rural investment, impact evaluation, agricultural growth, poverty |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2013-060&r=afr |
| By: | Nyangena, Wilfred; Juma, Ogada Maurice |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of package adoption of inorganic fertilizers and improved maize seed varieties on yield among smallholder households in Kenya. We used a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach combined with propensity score matching to control for both time-invariant and unobservable household heterogeneity. Our findings show that inorganic fertilizers and improved maize varieties significantly increase maize yields when adopted as a package, rather than as individual elements. The impact is greater at the lower end of the yield distribution than at the upper end. A positive effect of partial adoption is experienced only in the lower quartile of yield distribution. The policy implication is that complementary agricultural technologies should be promoted as a package, and should target households and areas experiencing low yields. |
| Keywords: | technology adoption, yield, difference-in-differences, Kenya |
| Date: | 2014–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-02-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Finn, Arden (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Ranchhod, Vimal (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | We document how we diagnosed data fabrication in the National Income Dynamics Study. Since the fabrication was detected while fieldwork was still on-going, the relevant interviews were re-conducted and the fabricated data were replaced with authentic data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that this has been done. We thus have an observed counterfactual that allows us to measure how problematic such fabrication would have been, had it remained undetected. We implement a number of estimators using the data that include the fabricated interviews, and compare these with the corresponding estimates that include the corrected data instead. For the outcomes that we consider, we find that the fabrication would not have substantially affected our univariate estimates. However, the fabricated data do impact substantially on some key covariates when panel estimators are used. |
| Keywords: | fieldworkers; data fabrication; South Africa; National Income Dynamics Study; NIDS |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:115&r=afr |
| By: | Arden Finn (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Murray Leibbrandt (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Ingrid Woolard (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | Gauging levels of welfare using data on income and expenditure is informative yet limited and can be enhanced by including non-money-metric measures. Nationally representative data sets from 1993 and 2010-2011 which cover a broad set of domains are used to calculate a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) for each year. This paper calculates these indices and uses them to assess trends in multidimensional poverty in South Africa over the post-apartheid period. From 1993 to 2010 MPI poverty fell by 29 percentage points from 37% to 8%. During this time period, the level of severe MPI poverty also dropped substantially from 17% of the population in 1993 to just over 1% in 2010. Not only did the incidence and intensity of multidimensional poverty fall significantly, but the average distance from the multidimensional poverty line across all dimensions also decreased over the period. These declines in multidimensional poverty are notably stronger than the estimated declines in money-metric poverty, which are also estimated and compared for the post-apartheid period. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:099&r=afr |
| By: | Holden, Stein (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This report documents agricultural household models developed for agricultural policy analyses related to the assessment of impacts of agricultural input subsidies and maize technology choices in Malawi. The models have been calibrated to a typology of households in Central and Southern Regions of Malawi based on household survey data collected for the period 2005-2010. Households are assumed to be drudgery averse and rational given their preferences and the resource constraints and imperfect markets they face. The impacts of varying access to resources, input subsidies, off-farm employment opportunities, and prices during the period of study are simulated. The models in particular demonstrate the vulnerability of land-poor households and their dependence on non-farm income for them to meet their basic needs. Access to improved maize varieties and subsidies may facilitate land use intensification and survival on smaller farms. Price shocks in form of higher fertilizer prices and lower tobacco prices contribute to further impoverishment while the costs of the input subsidy program also reached nonsustainable levels during the period of study. The models give insights about some possible avenues for scaling down the subsidy program towards a more sustainable level. Reduction of subsidies from two bags to one bag of fertilizer per household and concentration of targeting towards more land-poor households can be two important mechanisms. Rather than providing free improved maize seeds it may be better to improve the availability of improved seeds in local markets. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural household programming model; Malawi; production systems; market characteristics; impact of input subsidies; fertilizer and tobacco price shocks |
| JEL: | Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2014–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2014_005&r=afr |
| By: | Alem, Yonas; Beyene, Abebe D.; Kohlin, Gunnar; Mekonnen, Alemu |
| Abstract: | We use three rounds of a rich panel data set to investigate the determinants of household fuel choice and energy transition in urban Ethiopia. We observe that energy transition did not occur following economic growth in Ethiopia during the past decade. Regression results from a random effects multinomial logit model, which controls for unobserved household heterogeneity, show that households’ economic status, price of alternative energy sources, and education are important determinants of fuel choice in urban Ethiopia. The results also suggest the use of multiple fuels, or “fuel stacking behavior.” We argue that policy makers could target these variables to encourage transition to cleaner energy sources. |
| Keywords: | urban Ethiopia, energy choice, random effects multinomial logit |
| JEL: | C25 Q23 Q42 O13 |
| Date: | 2013–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-13-12-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Alem, Yonas |
| Abstract: | Previous studies of poverty in developing countries have to a great extent focused on the characteristics of the household head and used these as proxies for the underlying ability of the household to generate income. This paper uses five rounds of panel data to investigate the persistence of poverty in urban Ethiopia with a particular focus on the role of intra-household heterogeneity in occupations. Dynamic probit and system GMM regression results suggest that international remittances and labor market status of non-head household members are important determinants of households' poverty status. Results also show that controlling for these variables and the initial conditions problem encountered in non-linear dynamic probit models reduces the magnitude of estimated poverty persistence significantly for urban Ethiopia. These findings have important implications for identifying the poor and formulating effective poverty reduction and targeting strategies. |
| Keywords: | Urban Ethiopia, poverty persistence, dynamic probit, system GMM, labor market status |
| JEL: | I32 R11 R20 |
| Date: | 2014–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-05-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Wittenberg, Martin (DataFirst, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | Bhorat and van der Westhuizen (2013) use asset indices to explore inequality in post-Apartheid South Africa. We show that the way in which the asset indices were transformed to calculate the Gini coefficients does not preserve the relative ranking of inequality measures on subgroups. This means that the reported trends are not robust. Even if they were, it is difficult to interpret the coefficients. |
| Keywords: | inequality, asset index |
| JEL: | D63 I32 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:110&r=afr |
| By: | Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Mekonnen, Alemu; Deribe, Rahel; Abera, Samuel; Kassahun, Meseret Molla |
| Abstract: | There have been few attempts to look into the economic impacts of climate change in the context of Ethiopia. Although mixed crop-livestock farming is a dominant farming style, most of the studies on climate change, at least in the context of Ethiopia, have emphasized only crop agriculture and disregarded the role of livestock. In this research, we analyze climate change and agricultural productivity in Ethiopia in its broader sense, inclusive of livestock production. We employ a Ricardian approach, estimating three modified versions of the Ricardian model. Results show that warmer temperature is beneficial to livestock agriculture, while it is harmful to the Ethiopian economy from the crop agriculture point of view. Moreover, increasing/decreasing rainfall associated with climate change is damaging to both agricultural activities. |
| Keywords: | crop-livestock inter-linkages, agriculture, climate change, Ricardian model, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | C31 Q1 Q24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2013–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-13-14-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Alem, Yonas |
| Abstract: | Unlike most studies of subjective well-being in developing countries, we use a fixed effects regression on three rounds of rich panel data to investigate the impact of relative standing on life satisfaction of respondents in urban Ethiopia. We find a consistently large negative impactof relative standing -- both relative to others and to oneself over time -- on subjective well-being. However, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity through a fixed effects model reduces the impact of the relative standing variables on subjective well-being by up to 24 percent and reduces the impact of economic status by about 40 percent. Our findings highlight the need to be cautious in interpreting parameter estimates from subjective well-being regressions based on cross-sectional data, as the impact of variables may not be disentangled from that of unobserved heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | life satisfaction, urban Ethiopia, relative standing, fixed effects |
| JEL: | O12 I30 I31 |
| Date: | 2014–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-04-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Philip, Kate |
| Keywords: | public works, community participation, community development, part time employment, employment creation, local economic development, social service, South Africa R, travaux publics, participation de la communauté, développement communautaire, emploi à temps partiel, création d'emploi, développement économique local, services sociaux, Afrique du Sud R, obras públicas, participación comunitaria, desarrollo de la comunidad, empleo a tiempo parcial, creación de empleos, desarrollo económico local, servicios sociales, República de Sudáfrica |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:482779&r=afr |
| By: | Antoine Leblois (JRC, Ispra - Commission européenne); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Benjamin Sultan (LOCEAN - Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] - INSU - CNRS : UMR7159 - Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC) - Paris VI - Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN)) |
| Abstract: | In the Sudano-sahelian zone, which includes Northern Cameroon, the inter- annual variability of the rainy season is high and irrigation scarce. As a consequence, bad rainy seasons have a detrimental impact on crop yield. In this paper, we assess the risk mitigation capacity of weather index-based insurance for cotton farmers. We compare the ability of various indices, mainly based on daily rainfall, to increase the expected utility of a representative risk-averse farmer. We first give a tractable definition of basis risk and use it to show that weather index-based insurance is associated with a large basis risk, whatever the index considered. It has thus limited potential for income smoothing, a conclusion which is robust to the utility function. Second, in accordance with the existing agronomical literature we find that the length of the cotton growing cycle, in days, is the best performing index considered. Third, we show that using observed cotton sowing dates to define the length of the growing cycle significantly decreases the basis risk, compared to using simulated sowing dates. Finally we find that the gain of the weather-index based insurance is lower than that of hedging against cotton price fluctuations provided by the national cotton company. This casts doubt on the strategy of supporting weather-index insurances in cash crop sectors selling at international market prices without recommending any price stabilisation scheme. |
| Keywords: | Weather, index-based insurance, cash crop, price risk. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00967313&r=afr |
| By: | Piraino, Patrizio (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Muller, Sean (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Cilliers, Jeanne (Stellenbosch University); Fourie, Johan (Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Evidence on long-term multigenerational dynamics is often inadequate as large datasets with multiple generations remain very uncommon. We posit that genealogical records can offer a valuable alternative. Rather than exploring the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status, we rely on birth and death dates of eighteenth and nineteenth century settlers in South Africa's Cape Colony to estimate the intergenerational transmission of longevity. We find that there is a positive and significant association between parents' and offspring's life duration, as well as between siblings. Although these correlations persist over time, the coefficients are relatively small. While the effect of grandparents' longevity on that of grandchildren is insignificant, the cousin correlations suggest that inequality in longevity might persist across more than two generations. We suggest that family and environmental factors shared by cousins, beyond grandparental longevity, can explain these results. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility; longevity |
| JEL: | J62 N37 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:113&r=afr |
| By: | Olivier Bargain (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor); Prudence Kwenda (University of Witwatersrand - University of Witwatersrand) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the informal-formal sector pay gap throughout the conditional wage distribution using panel data from Brazil, Mexico and South Africa. We control for time-invariant unobservables and identification is stemming from inter-sector movers. We control for observables in a non-linear way using propensity score reweighting and carefully check for potential measurement errors. Using similar definitions of informality, we obtain consistent results for all three countries: Informally employed workers earn much less than formal workers primarily because of lower observable and unobservable skills. Estimates of the conditional wage gap show that they are also underpaid compared to their formal sector counterparts. In all three countries, the informal wage penalty is larger in the lower part of the conditional distribution and tends to disappear at the top, i.e., the informal sector increases wage dispersion. The magnitudes of these effects vary across countries, with the largest penalties in lower conditional quantiles of South Africa and more modest wage gaps in Latin America. We suggest explanations in line with different legal and labor market conditions. |
| Keywords: | wage gap; informal sector; quantile regression; fixed effects; propensity score; conditional random effects |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00967324&r=afr |
| By: | Arokiasamy, Perianayagam; Uttamacharya, Uttamacharya; Jain, Kshipra |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the prevalence and determinants of multiple chronic diseases and their association with the self-rated health, functional health and quality of life among adults in six SAGE countries: China, India, Russia, South Africa Mexico and Ghana. We use ADL and IADL activities as measures of functional health and WHOQoL index as a measure of quality of life. Poisson regression models are estimated to understand the social determinants of multiple chronic diseases. Logit models and OLS are estimated to examine the association between multiple chronic morbidities and self-rated health, functional health and quality of life. Russia had the highest prevalence of multi-morbidity (32.8%, 95%CI=25.5-41.1) followed by South Africa (22%, 95%CI=17.7-26.9); the other four countries had prevalence of multi-morbidity around 21%. Measures of socioeconomic status: education and wealth were found negatively associated with the number of chronic diseases. Higher number of chronic conditions was associated with the poorer self rated health, functional health and WHOQoL. |
| Keywords: | Multiple morbidity, Chronic diseases, Developing Countries, SAGE |
| JEL: | I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:54914&r=afr |
| By: | Pieter Laubscher (Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | The SA Reserve Bank (SARB) regularly determines the upper and lower turning points of the South African business cycle, but this is only completed after all the relevant information has been obtained, confirmed and analysed, causing a lengthy time lag between the actual determination and the event. The current research aimed to design a recession-dating algorithm, which could allow the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) to make accurate calls on business cycle turning points substantially sooner after the event than is the case with the official SARB determination, which typically lags actual turning points by 18 to 24 months. The proposed algorithm includes, as a point of departure, the advance signals given by the yield spread (between 3-month and 10-year government bonds), as well as a consideration of the local moments of five high-frequency economic time series. The turning point signals provided by these indicators (and after the application of censoring rules) are integrated by reconciling the differences through the use of the median date in order to derive true business cycle turning points. The algorithm was tested for the five recessions experienced over the 1981 to 2013 period. It was found that the algorithm could be applied successfully in calling the business cycle turning points over this 32-year period avoiding any false positives. A high degree of accuracy was also obtained, i.e. a median two month lag in respect of upper turning points (or peaks) of the SARB-determined business cycle and a one month lead in respect of lower turning points (i.e. troughs). The algorithm will not only allow the BER to make close calls on business cycle turning points, it will be able to do this with a much shorter time delay following actual turning points compared to the SARB’s official determination. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, turning points, quantitative analysis of business cycles |
| JEL: | C41 E32 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers211&r=afr |
| By: | Finn, Arden (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Leibbrandt, Murray (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | How much income mobility was there in South Africa between 2008 and 2012? Did this mobility serve to equalise or disequalise longer-term measures of income? In this paper we address the first question by assessing the extent of absolute and relative economic mobility. We then turn our attention to the second question of the joint relationship between mobility and inequality, and implement a new measure that is designed to reveal just how equalising or disequalising mobility has been. We find that there was a lot of absolute and relative mobility in the period covered by the first three waves of NIDS, and that this mobility served to equalise longer-term incomes slightly. |
| Keywords: | mobility; inequality; National Income Dynamics Study; NIDS |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:120&r=afr |
| By: | Reyntjens, Filip |
| Abstract: | The genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda started on 7 April 1994. In a mere hundred days, three-quarters of the Tutsi minority was exterminated. At the beginning of the massacres, the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) the rebel movement that invaded the country in October 1990 from Uganda and with Ugandan support launched an offensive that gave it military victory in early July. As the Hutu extremists had massively killed Tutsi "live" on television, these were the "bad guys", while those who fought them, the RPF rebels, had to be the "good guys". Few observers realised in these days that this was not a conflict between "good" and "bad" guys, but one between "bad guys". |
| Keywords: | Rwanda; genocide |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:apbrfs:2014001&r=afr |
| By: | Waage Skjeflo, Sofie (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Bruvik Westberg, Nina (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We use recent panel data on Tanzanian farm households to investigate how previous exposure to weather shocks affects the impact of a current shock. Specifically, we investigate the impact of droughts on agricultural outcomes and investments in children's health, measured by their short- and long-term nutritional status. As expected, we find that droughts negatively impact yields, and more so the more severe the drought is. We also find suggestive evidence that the more shocks a household has experienced in the past, the less crop yields are affected by a current shock. This suggests that households are able to learn from their past shock experience, and could imply that households are able to adapt to climate risk. Our results also suggest that the impact of a shock depends on when the household last experienced a shock. In terms of child health, our preliminary results are unable to uncover any clear shock impact on the short-term nutritional status of children, however long-term nutritional outcomes are negatively affected by past shocks. Further analyses using more recent weather data is necessary in order to conclude. |
| Keywords: | Climate risk; income shocks; adaptation; child health; Tanzania |
| JEL: | I12 I13 Q12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2014_004&r=afr |
| By: | Adrien Renaud |
| Abstract: | Paying health facilities incentives based on their performance is one form of results-based financing (RBF). Verification of the performance of the providers is a vital part of RBF program implementation. Burundi was one of the first African countries to introduce performance-based financing (PBF). The PBF scheme is implemented in the whole country and is led by the Ministry of Health (MoH). It pays incentives based on quantity of services provided as well as a quality of care component. This study describes the methods used for verification in Burundi, which include monthly verification of the quantity and technical quality of services provided on a quarterly basis; semiannual patient tracing and assessment of patient satisfaction; and counter-verification of the information provided by these three mechanisms. The results of verification are presented and it discusses obstacles to verification, how they have been addressed, and the challenges ahead. The case study is part of a broader analysis, which includes multiple country case examples, to expand knowledge about the verification process and practices to address the design and implementation needs of RBF programs. |
| Keywords: | Caesarean section, Circumcision, cleanliness, clinical guidelines, confidentiality, description, districts, domain, domains, e-mail, family planning, fraud, health care ... See More + health care provider, health care providers, Health Centers, Health Centres, health expenditure, health facilities, Health indicators, Health Management, health providers, health sector, health services, health system, health system performance, HIV, hospital services, Hospitalization, Hospitals, Human Development, income, Information System, inhabitants, institution, integration, life expectancy, material, medicine, morality, mortality, Nurses, nursing, Nutrition, patient, patient satisfaction, patients, performances, physician, Physicians, pilot project, pilot projects, pregnancy, Pregnant woman, pregnant women, provider payment, Public Health, quality of health, quality of health care, quality of services, refugees, registries, regulatory system, reliability, Result, results, supervision, surgery, technical assistance, telephone, tetanus, training workshops, trainings, treatment, tuberculosis, under-five mortality, user, vaccination, VERIFICATION, verifications, web, workers |
| Date: | 2013–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hnpdps:86190&r=afr |
| By: | Odile CHANUT; Nadjoua GHARBI; Dominique BONET FERNANDEZ |
| Abstract: | Franchising has become a dominant model of retailing in the Western world and is also developing in emerging countries, with the internationalization of franchisors. The paper is an attempt at explaining the significant differences in the development of franchise between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Explanations can be found in the general institutional environment in these countries (country risk, capital export control) as well as in the governments' willingness to modernize the distribution structures and the specific institutional environment of franchising: franchising law, the development of federations that serve to legitimize franchise partners with resource providers, banks and prospective franchisees. The analytical framework is that of institutional theory (DiMaggio and Powell, 1983) that provides new insight on approaches based on economic efficiency (agency theory and the resource scarcity perspective). From an analysis of the documents in the major public databases in the three countries, supplemented with field research, we propose an analysis grid of the institutional environment specific to franchising. Our analysis grid is used to explain the contrasting development of franchises in the North African countries. This development is also explained through the institutional theories renewing the approaches based on economic efficiency (agency theory and the resource scarcity perspective). |
| Keywords: | Institutional environment, institutional theory, analysis grid, international expansion, Maghreb. |
| Date: | 2014–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-200&r=afr |
| By: | Visser, Martine (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | We examine behavioural models involved in the provision of public goods when income inequality exists within groups. Our sample consists of individuals from urban and rural South African fishing communities. We find that behaviour observed in unequal groups does not accord with models of inequality aversion or egocentric altruism which require an equal distribution of final payoffs. On the other hand it is also not the case that individuals completely discount differences in initial allocations of wealth, as proposed by our absolute reciprocity model. Instead our empirical results lends support to a reciprocal model which requires that individuals contribute a proportional share of their initial endowments. Accordingly individuals are only partly held responsible for exogenous differences in initial wealth. |
| Keywords: | Social Norms; Inequality Aversion; Altruism; Reciprocity; Public goods; National Income Dynamics Study |
| JEL: | C9 C72 D63 D64 H41 Z13 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:116&r=afr |
| By: | Elizabeth Beasley; Elise Huillery (Département d'économie) |
| Abstract: | Increasing school resources has often shown disappointing effects on school quality in developing countries, a lack of impact which may be due to student, parent or teacher behavioral responses. We test the short-term impact of an increase in school resources under parental control using an experimental school grant program in Niger. |
| JEL: | H52 O15 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09na40maa99&r=afr |
| By: | Burger, Ronelle (Stellenbosch University); Dasgupta, Indraneel (Indian Statistical Institute); Owens, Trudy (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | We examine the case for donors providing financial incentives to NGOs to increase community participation. We show that, when such incentives are provided, there need not exist any meaningful relationship between beneficiary welfare and the extent of community participation implemented by an NGO. Higher community participation is consistent even with reduced beneficiary welfare. Thus, eliminating community participation from the set of conditions for funding an NGO may improve beneficiary welfare. We provide evidence from the NGO sector in Uganda consistent with our theoretical conclusions. Beneficiaries themselves do not appear to perceive community participation as generating appreciable value-addition in project output. |
| Keywords: | regulation of non-governmental organizations, developing countries, community participation, Uganda |
| JEL: | I38 L31 L38 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8051&r=afr |
| By: | Navarra, Cecilia; Vallino, Elena (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we deal with the relationship between the intervention of a development NGO or an external donor and the performance of village organizations (local NGOs) in Developing Countries. We utilize a large dataset of village organizations in rural areas of Senegal and Burkina Faso. We argue that the kind of relationship established with northern NGOs may have effects on the governance mechanisms of the local village organizations and that differences in the foundation of the VO and/or of the partnership can partially explain outcomes and membership structures of the VO itself. Our results go in the direction of possible diverging effects of an NGO intervention in the village (or partnership) according to the degree of proactivity and initiative that the VO displays. |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:201407&r=afr |
| By: | James Fenske; Achyuta Adhvaryu; Anant Nyshadham |
| Abstract: | We show that psychological well-being in adulthood varies substantially with circumstance in early life.� Combining a time series of real producer prices of cocoa with a nationally representative household survey in Ghana, we find that a one standard deviation rise in the cocoa price in early life decreases the likelihood of severe mental distress in adulthood by 3 percentage points (or half the mean prevalence) for cohorts born in cocoa-producing regions relative to those born in other regions.� Impacts on related personality traits are consistent with this result.� Maternal nutrition, reinforcing childhood investments, and adult circumstances are operative channels of impact. |
| Keywords: | mental health, subjective well-being, early life, fetal origins, endowments, commodity prices |
| JEL: | I12 I15 I31 Q02 O12 |
| Date: | 2014–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:698&r=afr |
| By: | Helle M. Alvesson; Menno Mulder-Sibanda |
| Abstract: | The objective of this review was to study where community-based family planning and nutrition programs have been integrated, how this has been accomplished, and what the results have been. Although family planning is a nontraditional intervention in community-based nutrition programs, it can have profound effects on maternal and child health and nutrition. When family planning does not occur, short intervals between pregnancies deplete mothers' reserves of nutrients needed for pregnancy and later for breastfeeding. As a result, short birth intervals are associated with higher maternal and neonatal mortality and malnutrition rates of infants. Family planning, which promotes contraceptive use and the lactational amenorrhea method, can thus improve nutrition outcomes in both mothers and babies. The authors identified a few studies on integrated services in the published literature; thus the main part of the review is built on operational research studies and unpublished smaller scale intervention studies. However, the controlled studies that were identified indicate positive correlation between breastfeeding levels and increased contraception use. Additionally, although the design of the intervention studies did not make it possible to assess the degree to which integration had an impact, the studies did highlight factors that were key to a successful integration process. These are community engagement; multiple and frequent contact points between mothers, community volunteers, and health workers; involvement of husbands; moving implementation decisions closer to the users of the program; and assuring transparency, clarity, and simplicity in the transmission of development objectives to communities. |
| Keywords: | abortion, access to family planning, access to health care, adolescent girls, adolescent pregnancies, adolescents, age of marriage, Antenatal care, antenatal visits, ... See More + vailability of family planning, babies, baby, BASIC HEALTH CARE, Behavior Change, birth control, breast milk, breastfeeding, care during pregnancy, Child Development, child health, child health services, child marriage, Child Mortality, child mortality rate, child mortality rates, CHILD NUTRITION, CHILD SURVIVAL, childbearing, childbirth, children per woman, clinics, Community health, complementary food, condoms, contraception, contraceptive method, Contraceptive prevalence, contraceptive services, contraceptive use, counselors, declines in fertility, delivery care, demographic targets, development objectives, diabetes, diseases, Early childbearing, economic growth, economic status, emergency obstetric care, exchange of information, existing family planning, families, Family Health, Family Health International, FAMILY PLANNING, family planning methods, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS, family planning services, family size, fertility, fertility rate, fertility rates, fewer pregnancies, first pregnancy, forms of contraception, gender issues, global policy, HEALTH CARE, health care providers, health care services, health centers, HEALTH EDUCATION, health facilities, health indicators, health interventions, health messages, health outcomes, health promotion, Health sector, health system, health systems, health workers, high child mortality, HIV, home visits, hospital, hospitals, household surveys, Human Development, Human Immunodeficiency Virus, husbands, hygiene, ill-health, Illness, immunization, Immunizations, Immunodeficiency, individual women, Infant, infant feeding, Infant mortality, Infant mortality rate, infant mortality rates, infant nutrition, INTEGRATING FAMILY PLANNING, international organizations, intervention, iodine deficiency, iron, IUD, IUDs, lactational amenorrhea, lactational amenorrhea method, LAM, large families, laws, live births, local community, longitudinal research, Low-Income Settings, male involvement, malnourished children, maternal care, maternal deaths, maternal health, MATERNAL MORTALITY, Maternal mortality rate, maternal mortality rates, Maternal mortality ratio, maternal nutrition, maternity services, medical facilities, midwife, midwifery, midwives, Millennium Development Goals, Ministry of Health, modern contraceptives, morbidity, mortality, mortality among infants, MORTALITY REDUCTIONS, mother, national Drug, national level, National Population, National Population Policy, neonatal mortality, newborns, number of children, number of women, nurses, NUTRITION, nutrition education, nutritional status, oral contraceptives, outreach workers, peer groups, pill, population control, population growth, postabortion, postabortion care, postnatal care, postpartum period, practitioners, pregnancies, pregnancy, pregnant women, preventive health care, Primary Health Care, progress, promotion of family planning, provision of family planning, puberty, public debate, Public Health, public health services, quality of services, radio, religious leaders, reproductive age, reproductive health, reproductive health services, risk of death, role models, rural areas, safe motherhood, sanitation, scientific evidence, screening, service delivery, sexually active, siblings, skilled personnel, small families, smaller families, social services, stillbirth, surgery, teenage girls, teenage pregnancies, teenagers, UNFPA, United Nations Population Fund, unmarried adolescent, unmarried women, use of family planning, use of family planning methods, vaccination, village chiefs, voluntary family planning, woman, workers, World Health Organization, Young Child, young children |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hnpdps:85743&r=afr |
| By: | Adoho, Franck; Chakravarty, Shubha; Korkoyah, Jr, Dala T.; Lundberg, Mattias; Tasneem, Afia |
| Abstract: | This paper presents findings from the impact evaluation of the Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young Women (EPAG) project in Liberia. The EPAG project was launched by the Liberian Ministry of Gender and Development in 2009 with the goal of increasing the employment and income of 2,500 young Liberian women by providing livelihood and life skills training and facilitating their transition to productive work. The analysis in this paper is based on data collected during two rounds of quantitative surveys in 2010 and 2011, the second of which was conducted six months after the classroom-based phase of the training program ended. Strong impacts are found on the employment and earnings outcomes of program participants, relative to a control group of non-participants. The EPAG program increased employment by 47 percent and earnings by 80 percent. In addition, the impact evaluation documents positive effects on a variety of empowerment measures, including access to money, self-confidence, and anxiety about circumstances and the future. The evaluation finds no net impact on fertility or sexual behavior. At the household level, there is evidence of improved food security and shifting attitudes toward gender norms. These results reinforce the highly positive feedback received from focus group discussions with program participants. Finally, preliminary cost-benefit analysis indicates that the budgetary cost of the EPAG business development training for young women is equivalent to the value of three years of the increase in income among program beneficiaries. These preliminary results provide strong evidence for further investment and research into young women's livelihood programs in Liberia. |
| Keywords: | Primary Education,Population Policies,Education For All,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Labor Policies |
| Date: | 2014–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6832&r=afr |